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Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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  • #3752
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    is_that_so wrote: »
    If you met any of 20 people who actually had the virus, you might be one of the 5 unlucky enough to catch it. Those are your odds.


    That's a total misunderstanding of what the reproduction number means!


  • #3753
    Refractions
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 65 ✭✭Refractions


    Tony EH wrote: »
    Just astonishing gibberish, even for Trump.

    It plays well with the base.


  • #3754
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Sorry if I am being stupid here, but I don't see the connection. In public we are social distancing. In nursing homes that is more difficult.

    Are staff not social distancing when outside from work or how exactly are they picking it up in the first place?


  • #3755
    ldy4mxonucwsq6
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭ldy4mxonucwsq6


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    If the R0 jumps when we lift restrictions, we could in reality be faced with a near permanent lockdown until a vaccine

    Nope, further lockdowns are not feasible and would not be successful. This one will be as good as we get.

    Never mind the economical side of that prospect but it'd be likely that public anarchy will follow any further attempts at lockdown further down the line.

    Honestly, I'd prefer to take my chances with the virus than live my life in permanent lockdown.


  • #3756
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Nice way to describe it - stretch their understanding

    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1253697117970890756


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  • #3757
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    That's a total misunderstanding of what the reproduction number means!
    Well you should take it up with Philip Nolan, that was his description of it last night!


  • #3758
    eagle eye
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,602 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Brycen Round Symbol wrote:
    Honestly, I'd prefer to take my chances with the virus than live my life in permanent lockdown.
    You do not care whether other people live or die?


  • #3759
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Are staff not social distancing when outside from work or how exactly are they picking it up in the first place?

    I'm sure they are. But it probably only takes a fraction of the amount of staff with the virus to pass it on in the nursing home environment, and once it is in there, it's going to spread rather easily. For the rest of us, we are less likely to pass it on as, if we are following the rules, we are really only liaising with family members.


  • #3760
    New Home
    Moderators, Arts Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 78,298 Mod ✭✭✭✭New Home


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Here's my draft for him:

    "Ahem, eh, hello Ladies and Gentlemen, and other variants. As your Taoiseach and great leader, you'll be very aware that I am not one for chasing the limelight.
    But I was humbled by the reaction of my St Patrick's Day speech, which was actually my first use of my latest speech training. I hope you like where I start a sentence and stop mid way, for effect, before continuing again.

    Anyway, it's about popularity at this stage. So I am happy to follow Italy's lead and let all pubs open from mid May. Thanks again for your support!"

    Rookie mistake - you forgot the "pome" and the bit in Irish.

    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    The best thing you can come out with... Scaremongering... Yet, they were able to see that there was increased activity through some Google/Apple tracking thing.

    Don't feed them.


  • #3761
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    The best thing you can come out with... Scaremongering... Yet, they were able to see that there was increased activity through some Google/Apple tracking thing.

    I don't see the point of the google/apple tracking?

    People can't be expected to remain locked down forever.

    Restrictions are going to be lifted in May sometime and of course infection spread will go up. The vast majority will be mild cases, close to 40% even asymptomatic. We will pick up at most 10% in testing and we'll continue to be given a false fatality rate of 5% when in reality its closer to 0.5%. Hospitalisation rates will also be false, overestimated by a factor close to 10.

    No-one can guarantee a 100% effective in the next 12 months, not even experts. One expert said she was 80% confident. You'd want to be 99% confident in reality about a vaccine.

    The best thing at this stage is allow a slow spread among the healthy while continuing to ask the elderly and vulnerable groups to cocoon. This would be to save the economy and jobs.

    Keep a ban on large gatherings and don't reopen schools until September. Bring in antibody testing of healthcare workers and those who are found to have a large amount of antibodies and are immune, put them to work in nursing homes and working with the vulnerable categories in general.


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  • #3762
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Nice way to describe it - stretch their understanding

    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1253697117970890756

    I really just wish he'd stop with the "12 days", "11 days" he's been doing yesterday and today, doing a countdown to the 5th May like that just raises people's hopes too much I think.


  • #3763
    RugbyLad11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 547 ✭✭✭RugbyLad11


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    Guess that's why they were disinfecting the air in china, Italia and Spain with those big aerosol machines on trucks. We have very low air pollution relatively so no cause for panic. It's also Friday.

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-detected-particles-air-pollution

    Our air pollution is not as low as people think

    https://aqicn.org/city/dublin/
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/dublin-air-pollution-breaching-eu-limits-epa-warns-1.3950575


  • #3764
    Laois_Man
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,758 ✭✭✭Laois_Man


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Well you should take it up with Philip Nolan, that was his description of it last night!

    It wasn't!


  • #3765
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Refractions wrote: »
    It plays well with the base.

    Until they all die because they’ve drank a litre of Dettol or injected themselves with bleach


  • #3766
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,828 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    walshb wrote: »
    Took me bit of time to realize it, but Trump is not the problem. The people of the U.S. are.

    SOME people in the U.S. are. I wouldn't be so quick to tar the entire populace with the same brush. Although I suspect you aren't actually doing that.

    In any case, the problem for the people of the U.S. is that there isn't any real political choice over there. They have the option of Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dee. Or in the case of the 2016 election, Tweedle Dumb and Tweedle Dumber.

    Another issue is the partisan nature of each political "club". People will vote Republican or Democrat and always will, no matter what. Although a lot of folk didn't turn out in 2016 because they could stomach the thought of Hillary in the Whitehouse and I can't blame them. All the while, though, the actual differences between the two parties is miniscule, at best. They're basically two cheeks of the same arse.

    Politically, the nation - to use an Americanism - sucks.


  • #3767
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    eagle eye wrote: »
    You do not care whether other people live or die?

    Did she say that? If she got the virus she'd go into isolation. Better to know you have it than be an asymptomatic carrier, spreading it unknowingly. That is far more dangerous.


  • #3768
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    rm212 wrote: »
    I really just wish he'd stop with the "12 days", "11 days" he's been doing yesterday and today, doing a countdown to the 5th May like that just raises people's hopes too much I think.
    I'm doing it too! All things going the right way we have reasons to be cheerful( Part ?).


  • #3769
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    fringegirl wrote:
    Honestly, I'd prefer to take my chances with the virus than live my life in permanent lockdown.
    eagle eye wrote: »
    You do not care whether other people live or die?


    Your response eagle eye is put out by a lot of people. It's a standard response that attempts to suggest that the other poster is some type of unconcerned cúnt that doesn't give a crap about others.

    In reality, this position has effectively been accepted by the Government who have stated that 'lockdowns' can't continue indefinitely for the very reason that fringegirl mentioned. Though her post seems to have gone, perhaps you shamed her into deleting it!


  • #3770
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    In other news. I’m liking vlads work from home set up.....he went for the 48 inch 4K screen.

    https://twitter.com/welt/status/1253697480832823297?s=21


  • #3771
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Laois_Man wrote: »
    It wasn't!
    No danger you're going to get out of panto mode here?


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  • #3772
    rm212
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 689 ✭✭✭rm212


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I'm doing it too! All things going the right way we have reasons to be cheerful( Part ?).

    As the CMO said yesterday, if the decision was being made right now, they would not be lifting any measures on the 5th May. There shouldn't be a countdown while that is still the reality.


  • #3773
    ldy4mxonucwsq6
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,537 ✭✭✭ldy4mxonucwsq6


    eagle eye wrote: »
    You do not care whether other people live or die?

    Of course I do hence why I've been in lockdown since the schools closed.

    We have limited options and realistically no more lockdowns will be tolerated.

    If you know any of those cocooning you'll probably also know that they will be the first ones to say no to any future attempts of the same.


  • #3774
    Curious_Case
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,525 ✭✭✭Curious_Case


    No problem enduring a total lockdown if the banks are locked down too
    But they won't be
    So guess what's going to happen ?


  • #3775
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    rm212 wrote: »
    As the CMO said yesterday, if the decision was being made right now, they would not be lifting any measures on the 5th May. There shouldn't be a countdown while that is still the reality.
    Yeah, that's because of the high number of new cases, which are probably courtesy of nursing home testing. If, as suggested, they fall off during the week it is likely to happen.


  • #3776
    frillyleaf
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 801 ✭✭✭frillyleaf


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    Sorry if I am being stupid here, but I don't see the connection. In public we are social distancing. In nursing homes that is more difficult.

    Yes, residents can’t be confined to their rooms all day. They need to mix in common areas which can be crowded as it is. Mentally they can’t be confined to a bedroom all day as that wouldn’t be fair on residents and would be detrimental for physical and mental well being. Many residents need assistance getting dressed, using bathroom etc so come into close contact with staff. There are people in nursing homes sometimes because care at home is not possible but are mentally healthy. Eg someone who had severe stroke and leg and arm paralysis on one side. Some people are far younger than you would expect too.


  • #3777
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    Why has the CMO not recognized the pre-symptomatic viral spread exists ? It's been published in the literature since early February.

    Perhaps you could ask him, seeing that you are on first name terms with him.

    Thanks Rob. Gave Tony a bell there. He says he does recognise that pre-symptomatic viral spread exists. But that social distancing has prevented said pre-symptomatic viral spread happening.

    He's very obliging to taking calls from members of the public :pac:


  • #3778
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    BloodBath wrote: »
    That's the spirit!

    Ah you’re back! Haven’t seen you post since you declared “it’s not as bad as the flu”, and people are overreacting that it would be over in a few weeks. :pac:


  • #3779
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Ah you’re back! Haven’t seen you post since you declared “it’s not as bad as the flu”, and people are overreacting that it would be over in a few weeks. :pac:

    There was a know-it-all forum member who was downplaying a lot in early March, like many of us were. But most people seemed happy enough to acknowledge that they were wrong. I know I was. I knew this forum member would go quiet for a few weeks before resuming posting rather than admit they were wrong. :) And I was right about the posting break.


  • #3780
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Ah you’re back! Haven’t seen you post since you declared “it’s not as bad as the flu”, and people are overreacting that it would be over in a few weeks. :pac:

    I never once stated any of that you ignorant clown. Keep making up lies about me while you post moronic BS over and over again. You really are living up to your name.


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  • #3781
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Spain is now adding antibody tests to it's confirmed COVID cases. 16,000 have been added in total, it may be partly why there was a spike in cases as more people positive for antibodies are added to the number


This discussion has been closed.
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