Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Danno · 24-04-2020 12:02AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I don't see the point in testing and tracking, just assume every single person in the country has it and distance yourself from them, virus then dies off and game over, return to normal life.

We used to have a normal life until some sneezing cnut came back from a skiing holiday in Italy, probably to vote Green in the last GE.

Ulysses Gaze · 24-04-2020 12:03AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Light and heat to cure it, sweet jaysus, all we need is a few moving statues to sort out the virus.

Scary thing is, he'll win re-election at a canter.

ShineOn7 · 24-04-2020 12:04AM

From the Reddit user who digests all daily info and stats:

_______________________________________________

New Cases: 936
Total Cases: 17607
New Death: 28
Total Deaths: 794 (3 deaths denotified)
Male: 421
Female: 373
Median Age: 83

MISSED THIS PART OF THE BRIEFING, CAN'T FIND NUMBERS?

Deaths:
Hospitalised + died in hospital:
Died in ICU:
Underlying conditions:
Median age:
Mean age: Range: 23-105

Of 332 in ICU

Remain in hospital:142
Discharged: 139
Died: 50
Underlying conditions: 277
Median Age: 60

As of Tuesday 21st

Cases: 16439
In Hospital: 2424
Total In ICU: 331
Deaths: 789
Clusters: 522
Account for: 4096 cases
Median age infected: 48
Healthcare workers: 4545

Residential Settings

All Residential Homes (Includes nursing homes): 319
Nursing Homes: 191
Total cases in residential homes: 2960
Total cases in nursing homes: 2231
Residential homes - deaths in hospitals: 433
Nursing homes - deaths in hospital: 103

The below is based on information presented by Philip Nolan and the modelling
Parameters, and estimate of R0 as of this week

Seen significant suppression in Ireland, monitored against all the different indicators
Number of people who tested positive (5 day rolling average) is greatly reduced.
External tests from Germany were backdated to date they occurred on. Many of those tests were backdated to late March, early April.
Including these backdated tests, it shows that we have been detecting 500-600 cases in the community in a stable manner since the very strict public health measures were imposed
The spread of the virus in the community stalled to almost nothing at one stage.
Since the beginning of the week we can see a reduction in cases identified, highlighted by the downturn in the curve.
In coming days we will see increase in cases due to the increased testing in residential care. Will see more cases than one might expect.
However, there is a decline in general population, but increase in residential care
Total people in hospital - peaked at 900 last week, but it is now decreasing. More being let home than people admitted
ICU grew steadily March, peaked at roughly 160, was steady in early April, and now declining
Hospital admissions peaked at 90 patients a day

Disease has been stabilised or suppressed

Looking very closely at residential cases.
Looking very carefully at when the disease was actually detected. Swab would have been taken roughly at the time when the disease presented.
Nursing home testing shows that it took the disease some time to get into nursing homes. Almost 2 weeks after its rapid rise in the general population, it rapidly grew in nursing homes. It is continuing to rise in nursing homes.
Disease emerged in general population before residential care.
Disease is suppressed in general population
Not clear that it is suppressed in residential home
Recent data shows that it is declining in residential homes
Driving the disease out of the general public is the best protection for the residential home patients

Number of deaths a day have been graphed by the date that they occurred
Number of deaths per day in population and long term residential homes has been relatively stable since the end of the first week in April, a final indication that the disease is under control
Growth rates in confirmed cases - in early stages of epidemic the disease was growing at 33% per day. This has declined in the course of March and early April. Growth rate since early April has been pretty much zero (5 day average). This is creeping up due to the extra testing being carried out in long term residential homes.

Can estimate/confirm the number of people who have recovered from the disease, based on : (# released from hospital) + (Those who had a positive test 14 days ago and haven't been hospitalised/died).
2/3rds of people diagnosed with Covid have recovered
One of the key metrics to know before we consider changes in the restrictions - disease needs to be managed to a very low level (we are close to this, but this will take some time to reduce hospitalised/icu/community level to a low number)
We need to keep the R0 below 1, we can do this, and we can force this down as needed

R0 based on 4 estimates. All 4 estimates confirm with a high level of confidence that the R0 is between 0.5 and 0.8
Imperial College London model - tell the number of cases, the number of deaths, and the point at which you introduced measures. This model showed before restrictions, R0 = 2-4 Since strong social distancing measures, R0 <1, 0.54 (95% confident)
Half population is transmitting it to no one, other half are transmitting it to only one other person
R0 = 0.8 - 600 cases a day - our data follows the model well (ignored data from last two days, as there is a difference in the testing regime - detecting cases that would not have been tested before)
If on May 5th restrictions are relaxed and people still follow social distancing, the numbers will rise slowly. Reintroducing strict measures will reduce numbers again
If R0 = 1.6, people are more relaxed, contact each other more. Will show a peak much higher than what we have seen. Strict reintroduction will control the diseased
R0 =2.4, then we cannot cope.
These model projections show us that we need to be exceptionally cautious so that we don't have something that significantly increases the transmission of the virus

Questions

Do you feel like you are losing the public lately? Have the majority of the public with us. We have evidence to show that we are having some extra movement. Modelling shows that if we do very little, we will see large growth of the virus. If reproductive number climbed up to high 1, beyond 2, we would have significant impact on health of public, and on the HSE
We have a long way to go still, especially with the increase in cases that were picked up today due to the residential homes testing To contemplate lifting the restrictions, we need to make sure that the community residential homes don't infect the general community We need to break the chain of transmission in the nursing homes in the way that we have done so in the general community.
4 out of 5 deaths have occurred in the East. Can we ease the measures in the rest of the country? They have looked closely at the question earlier in the disease, but ultimately decided the right thing to do was to implement measures across the entire country. This would help prevent the spread of disease in other parts of the country. Cannot expect restrictions will become regionalised.
For each case detected, how many go undetected? Worldwide thought that for every case detected, 1 goes undetected. Serological studies have been prepared, once we have a good reliable test. Will random select people to do a blood sample to confirm the prevalence of the disease in the community.

eldamo · 24-04-2020 12:04AM

the.red.baron wrote: »

How long does that take!

Two standard deviations of an incubation period with no new cases.

Around 28 Days with no new cases.

Sooooo if you could provide each and every citizen with enough rice and bog roll not to have to leave their house for 56 days ...

The joys.

Atlantic Dawn · 24-04-2020 12:06AM

the.red.baron wrote: »

How long does that take!

I'd like to see the figures after a month, you would need full lock up of anyone not respecing social distancing to police it, you would arrest circa 250 people a day for using public transport illegally.

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 24-04-2020 12:06AM

the.red.baron wrote: »

They have made remarkable progress against AIDS when it looked like it was untreatable

No AIDS is still not good - treatment at AIDS stage of infection doesn't have the best of outcomes, but HIV yes treatable but not before about 30+ years of deaths and research (that's only since it came to the forefront, that virus has been around since long before the 80s).

Roger_007 · 24-04-2020 12:08AM

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Right you'd best tell all the incredibly smart, educated and talented people working on a vaccine that. Im sure they'll appreciate your valued input.

Those incredibly smart, educated and talented people haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory in this whole crisis. They seem to be almost as totally in the dark about it as the rest of us.
They seem to have little idea about how exactly the virus is being transmitted. They seem to have no idea about whether a person can get reinfected if they recover from a first infection. They have failed to produce an antibody test that works. They have very little idea about why some areas have much higher infection rates than others. They can’t agree on whether we should wear masks or not.
I’ve got to the stage where I don’t believe very much of the expert opinion that we are being fed.

davedanon · 24-04-2020 12:09AM

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Scary thing is, he'll win re-election at a canter.

That's seriously doubtful. He's the worst president in US history and probably the single most hateful figure on the planet today. His base don't care but they're only 40% max of the population. Everyone else loathes him with a passion, and they're gonna vote like gangbusters in November. The only way he can win is if the GOP can cheat their way to it with voter suppression, partisan gerrymandering etc. Which they are trying to do, of course, but Trump goes down in flames in a fair election. Whether he leaves office or ignites a civil war is another matter.

Atlantic Dawn · 24-04-2020 12:11AM

davedanon wrote: »

That's seriously doubtful. He's the worst president in US history

For the economy he is one of the best ever.

marno21 · 24-04-2020 12:14AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

For the economy he is one of the best ever.

Running a 1 trillion deficit in times of growth is not good economic management. It's the equivalent of burning the couch to keep the house warm.

eldamo · 24-04-2020 12:14AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

Those incredibly smart, educated and talented people haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory in this whole crisis. They seem to be almost as totally in the dark about it as the rest of us.
They seem to have little idea about how exactly the virus is being transmitted. They seem to have no idea about whether a person can get reinfected if they recover from a first infection. They have failed to produce an antibody test that works. They have very little idea about why some areas have much higher infection rates than others. They can’t agree on whether we should wear masks or not.
I’ve got to the stage where I don’t believe very much of the expert opinion that we are being fed.

Ah heyore, it is being transmitted by water droplets in the air and on surfaces.
Whaddya want them to do about reinfection? Human testing, it's a new virus, they have to see how the body reacts.

Face masks yes we should all wear them in public, but there aren't enough to go around so leave them for front line staff until there are enough available.

Super simple stuff

24-04-2020 12:15AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

For the economy he is one of the best ever.

His future depends on only about 5 specific swing states. If he loses 3 of those he is done.

the.red.baron · 24-04-2020 12:19AM

Brycen Round Symbol wrote: »

No AIDS is still not good, but HIV yes treatable but not before about 30+ years of deaths and research (that's only since it came to the forefront, that virus has been around since long before the 80s).

Yes remarkable progress so

Against hiv/aids whatever you wanna call it

In fairness the progress started in the mid 90s

So not that long, and the first antivirals started appearing in the late 80s

Kermit.de.frog · 24-04-2020 12:21AM

Even Trump is giving out about Georgia's governor who is allowing things like massage parlours and tattooists to reopen

The president is “not happy about Brian Kemp” Trump said, referring to the governor of Georgia, who has moved ahead with a plan to reopen businesses despite criticisms from the president and other Republican and Democratic lawmakers.

“I don’t want this thing to flare up because you’re deciding to do something that’s not in the guidelines,” Trump said.

Atlantic Dawn · 24-04-2020 12:22AM

Deleted User wrote: »

His future depends on only about 5 specific swing states. If he loses 3 of those he is done.

Biden won't be able to handle the live debates against Trump.

the.red.baron · 24-04-2020 12:23AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

Those incredibly smart, educated and talented people haven’t exactly covered themselves with glory in this whole crisis. They seem to be almost as totally in the dark about it as the rest of us.
They seem to have little idea about how exactly the virus is being transmitted. They seem to have no idea about whether a person can get reinfected if they recover from a first infection. They have failed to produce an antibody test that works. They have very little idea about why some areas have much higher infection rates than others. They can’t agree on whether we should wear masks or not.
I’ve got to the stage where I don’t believe very much of the expert opinion that we are being fed.

You should be the hero we all need and sort out the whole mess yourself

There are many on here who seem to think they know better, but through poor life choices and a lack of commitment they fell through the cracks and never fulfilled their potential, and ended up posting crap during the early hours on the internet

Oh wait

rm212 · 24-04-2020 12:24AM

Brycen Round Symbol wrote: »

No AIDS is still not good - treatment at AIDS stage of infection doesn't have the best of outcomes, but HIV yes treatable but not before about 30+ years of deaths and research (that's only since it came to the forefront, that virus has been around since long before the 80s).

The potential coronavirus vaccine is not designed to treat people in late stage critical condition from coronavirus, it is a preventive measure to stop people getting it. The comparison to AIDS is therefore irrelevant, you should compare it to PrEP.

BanditLuke · 24-04-2020 12:25AM

davedanon wrote: »

That's seriously doubtful. He's the worst president in US history and probably the single most hateful figure on the planet today. His base don't care but they're only 40% max of the population. Everyone else loathes him with a passion, and they're gonna vote like gangbusters in November. The only way he can win is if the GOP can cheat their way to it with voter suppression, partisan gerrymandering etc. Which they are trying to do, of course, but Trump goes down in flames in a fair election. Whether he leaves office or ignites a civil war is another matter.

The fact anyone could hate Trump more than Xi Jinping is laughable.

marno21 · 24-04-2020 12:25AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Biden won't be able to handle the live debates against Trump.

At the start of March it was "Biden won't be able to handle a 2 hour debate against Bernie".

Now it's against Trump.

By the time this is over, will Trump even show up to a debate?

Tomrota · 24-04-2020 12:26AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

For the economy he is one of the best ever.

You mean for the top 1% right?

The average American is living paycheque to paycheque. Many don’t have access to healthcare. Many aren’t earning a living wage. Economic inequality is increasing more than ever. In what way is the economy good?

BanditLuke · 24-04-2020 12:27AM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Biden won't be able to handle the live debates against Trump.

Biden will be lucky to make it to the debates. His mental health seems to be in rapid decline of late. Some utterly bizarre interviews.

owlbethere · 24-04-2020 12:29AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Disinfectant injected into the lungs? Did Trump just say that,

Is that the sh1te he's coming out with tonight? I'm not watching

the.red.baron · 24-04-2020 12:29AM

rm212 wrote: »

The potential coronavirus vaccine is not designed to treat people in late stage critical condition from coronavirus, it is a preventive measure to stop people getting it. The comparison to AIDS is therefore irrelevant, you should compare it to PrEP.

That's what we are talking about

I said aids, it always irrates the nerds

A vaccine might not end up being the solution to this

the.red.baron · 24-04-2020 12:33AM

BanditLuke wrote: »

Biden will be lucky to make it to the debates. His mental health seems to be in rapid decline of late. Some utterly bizarre interviews.

Lads his gaffs are no worse that what Simon Harris said

You do enough interviews you are going to end up saying something stupid

Politicians get asked 100s of stupid of the cuff questions, you can know everything

And the cameras catch it all

rm212 · 24-04-2020 12:34AM

the.red.baron wrote: »

That's what we are talking about

I said aids, it always irrates the nerds

A vaccine might not end up being the solution to this

I know it might not, and that’s neither here nor there, I’m not sure if we will get a vaccine, I’m not advocating that we definitely will.

But AIDS is more of a long term consequence of untreated HIV. Also HIV is a bit unique as far as viruses go, it’s a retrovirus and much, much harder to treat than your average virus, so it’s not really a good comparison to corona either.

But yeah, I’m not sure if we will develop a vaccine successfully for it. I wouldn’t bet on it...

biggebruv · 24-04-2020 12:36AM

Can someone explain to me why cases are still rising everyday ? Wasn’t the whole point of early lockdowns and school closures to stop cases rising

If cases are rising daily now during the lockdown ain’t it gonna be ridiculously high once the stricter lockdown ends come may5th

Hurrache · 24-04-2020 12:39AM

owlbethere wrote: »

Is that the sh1te he's coming out with tonight? I'm not watching

He's causing a run in sunbeds, bleach, syringes to inject yourself with the bleach, and the bullets from one of the Blade movies as cures.

spookwoman · 24-04-2020 12:39AM

Trump might want to reel in his minions, if they going out protesting there won't be any left to vote for him..... maybe that might be a bad idea

Hurrache · 24-04-2020 12:40AM

biggebruv wrote: »

Can someone explain to me why cases are still rising everyday ? Wasn’t the whole point of early lockdowns and school closures to stop cases rising

If cases are rising daily now during the lockdown ain’t it gonna be ridiculously high once the stricter lockdown ends come may5th

The purpose was to slow the rise, flatten it, not eliminate it.

the.red.baron · 24-04-2020 12:41AM

rm212 wrote: »

I know it might not, and that’s neither here nor there, I’m not sure if we will get a vaccine, I’m not advocating that we definitely will.

But AIDS is more of a long term consequence of untreated HIV. Also HIV is a bit unique as far as viruses go, it’s a retrovirus and much, much harder to treat than your average virus, so it’s not really a good comparison to corona either.

But yeah, I’m not sure if we will develop a vaccine successfully for it. I wouldn’t bet on it...

It's a great comparison

I know what it is, that's why she jumped on me saying aids, it was lazy

Treating aids is a miracle

Something we just can't create a vaccine for which for a while we thought was untreatable

And it's essentially been knocked on the head

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Comments