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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,834 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    I posted this in another thread but it would be a good fit here.

    Some musings over the weekend :)

    I was thinking of buying maybe this year or next year.
    Over the weekend especially i was giving my housing situation a huge amount of thought.

    2 months ago, I had a nice job but was going to move to London to a new job before the summer. I was saving for a mortgage and living in a granny flat in my parents, but the mortgage idea was long term in case I got sick of London and moved home.

    So now here I am.
    New plan.
    Im going to stay in my current job, which is safe enough, for the next year or so and ride out whats to come. Plans to buy are off the table. Plans to emigrate are off the table.
    My brother recently took advantage of the lack of market and the cheap nice apartments that have come online in the last few weeks and we had a good chat yesterday.
    I will do the same. Im going to start looking today for one of these good deals, before everyone else gets the idea. The plan will be to take one with a good rent and good location. Hopefully pay deposit and get a move in date of maybe start of June if I can. No point moving in sooner because this covid thing could run and run.

    So i'll pay deposit now , but pay rent from June. Thats my plan. I'll post back how I got on. Maybe I wont get a deal like that, but i'll certainly give it a go.

    cheap apartments? they are still expensive, better value than what they were though, yes...


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    cheap apartments? they are still expensive, better value than what they were though, yes...




    True that :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,834 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    many were doing a **** commute and expense of car, before this disaster hit, you would wonder, will many think the quality of life is **** doing that and try and move back in to the city and avail of the temporarily cheaper rents and possibly ditch the car...


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    many were doing a **** commute and expense of car, before this disaster hit, you would wonder, will many think the quality of life is **** doing that and try and move back in to the city and avail of the temporarily cheaper rents and possibly ditch the car...


    That is exactly my plan :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,834 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    That is exactly my plan :)

    supply has now been frozen for months, in terms of building. If the english schools and colleges are back in business in september, for face to face classes, this could turn, very, very quickly! prices might even drop now for another 2-3 months , right in middle of summer as tourim will not be back in that time frame, but like I said, we cant all be out of work or work remotely , these restrictions will be lifted first (many of the work related one, construction for sure), then like I said, September is the return to education time, throw them in on the heap and the miniscule supply in the greater scheme of things, that has temporarily come on stream, will vanish very quickly I reckon.
    Between 13 March and 16 April, there were 964 rental listings in central Dublin, compared to 563 last year.
    thats from the RTE article, another few hundred units in a city of 1,500,000 in the greater area. the sites beings shut down, is stopping that amount of completions per week probably!


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Does anyone have any thoughts on the effect all this will have on student accommodation? Normally students would lease from September to May.
    I assume Landlords are losing out on the short term summer rent so are offering a lower rate for a longer lease. Would a group of students be silly to accept an offer to lease a house for the whole year or should they wait and see what the market looks like later in the Summer?


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,834 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Does anyone have any thoughts on the effect all this will have on student accommodation? Normally students would lease from September to May.
    I assume Landlords are losing out on the short term summer rent so are offering a lower rate for a longer lease. Would a group of students be silly to accept an offer to lease a house for the whole year or should they wait and see what the market looks like later in the Summer?

    and what if college not back in september? I would be doing nothing now and the drops in prices are nowhere near enough, where I would consider that gamble...


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,834 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Does anyone have any thoughts on the effect all this will have on student accommodation? Normally students would lease from September to May.
    I assume Landlords are losing out on the short term summer rent so are offering a lower rate for a longer lease. Would a group of students be silly to accept an offer to lease a house for the whole year or should they wait and see what the market looks like later in the Summer?

    sorry, is this a hypotehtical or is this something that has been offered to you?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,322 ✭✭✭JustAThought


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    The government should actually pass legislation that MAKES companies tell employees to work from home who are working from home at the moment until a vaccine or a cure presents itself. At least that would thin out the herd and only those who cannot under any circumstances work from home would be traveling or in the office. Basically if you can work from home now, it should be mandatory that you continue to work from home for the duration. Thin out the offices.


    So in the ultimate home goal where arguments against people using their private houses for personal gain via renting out rooms to airbnb for profit, which people were shieking to ban on the grounds that it was outside the remit of their planning permission - now we want the government to force landlords to allow people renting to run their commercial enterprises and businesses from private homes?

    Inoperable without huge challenges in court.

    Also not all houses are suitable for office work - particularly in share situations. Not to mention the mental health damage to running your companys business from a bench at the end of your bed or being expected to shiver in cold all day or run up a massive gas/lx bill for the additional 200-250 hours heat and light per month this would entail.


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    So in the ultimate home goal where arguments against people using their private houses for personal gain via renting out rooms to airbnb for profit, which people were shieking to ban on the grounds that it was outside the remit of their planning permission - now we want the government to force landlords to allow people renting to run their commercial enterprises and businesses from private homes?

    Inoperable without huge challenges in court.

    Also not all houses are suitable for office work - particularly in share situations. Not to mention the mental health damage to running your companys business from a bench at the end of your bed or being expected to shiver in cold all day or run up a massive gas/lx bill for the additional 200-250 hours heat and light per month this would entail.

    Not correct. The planning issue was with renting out entire housing units on short stay. There has never been a planning issue with people renting out rooms in their own homes on AirBnb.
    There have been a few court cases where people have been operating a business form home and as long as the dominant use of the property is residential having a workspace is regarded as incidental. As a judge said i one case "if I put my briefcase on my dining room table, that does not that turn my home into an office building".

    The main legal issue with WFH is Health and Safety. The employer is still liable for a safe workplace even if it is the employees home. there are also Data Protection issues.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,834 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    I can see some working from home permanently, more likely some will now work from home one or two days a week and go into office the other days


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    the inflow o property due to the Airbnb closedown looks to be easing already.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/housing-rent-dublin-daft-report-covid-5081233-Apr2020/


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    the inflow o property due to the Airbnb closedown looks to be easing already.

    https://www.thejournal.ie/housing-rent-dublin-daft-report-covid-5081233-Apr2020/

    Where have the people gone that were saying this would be a game changer and end of the housing crisis?


  • Registered Users Posts: 937 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Interesting words from the minister...lets see if they truly follow through
    Mr Murphy said "what is abundantly clear in this crisis is the amount of short-term lettings that are now available for homeless services, the HSE and others and that we need to take the next step and regulate these online platforms, the next government has to have this as a priority".

    The Government introduced planning controls which required owner occupiers on short-term letting properties to register and those letting out second properties were told they would require planning permission that would be unlikely to be granted in a rent pressure zone.

    However, only 239 hosts came forward even though the online monitoring company Inside Airbnb estimates there are more than 7,200 short-term letting properties in the capital.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2020/0421/1132968-airbnb-properties/


  • Registered Users Posts: 896 ✭✭✭shenanagans


    The whole short term let thing had two but appeals for LLs the money and the lack of obligations/rights. New legislation has given significant rights to tenants once in a property 6 months. It's very difficult and expensive to get a non-paying tenant out today.

    If LLs are to be tempted back into the market we need to improve regulations for LLs. I can't see why good LLs shouldn't be protected properly.

    Decent rent paying tenants who look after rental properties shouldn't have any objection to this IMO.

    LLs have mortgages and bills to pay too. And why should they subsidise someone elses lifestyle by providing a property for no rent or have a property thrashed.

    The whole issue need to be looked at from Both Sides. We've protected the tenants now do something for the LL in regards to protection.


  • Registered Users Posts: 937 ✭✭✭Ozark707



    If LLs are to be tempted back into the market we need to improve regulations for LLs. I can't see why good LLs shouldn't be protected properly.

    Decent rent paying tenants who look after rental properties shouldn't have any objection to this IMO.

    Hopefully sense will prevail and they make moves to do this.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Interesting words from the minister...lets see if they truly follow through



    https://www.rte.ie/news/dublin/2020/0421/1132968-airbnb-properties/

    Do the regs also apply to people that let their house or apartment for a couple of weeks while they go on holiday? Or is it just units used for short term let’s full time?
    I’ve used Airbnb in other countries a few times and the house was primary residence of people who were gone on holidays for a few weeks. I don’t see a problem with that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,684 ✭✭✭✭Samuel T. Cogley


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Do the regs also apply to people that let their house or apartment for a couple of weeks while they go on holiday? Or is it just units used for short term let’s full time?
    I’ve used Airbnb in other countries a few times and the house was primary residence of people who were gone on holidays for a few weeks. I don’t see a problem with that.

    You can do it for upto 90 days IIRC.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭sk8board


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    . However, only 239 hosts came forward even though the online monitoring company Inside Airbnb estimates there are more than 7,200 short-term letting properties in the capital.

    Bear in mind that the 7,200 number includes:
    - people who live in the house too
    - people genuinely following the 90 day Airbnb rule
    - people who wouldn’t rent the house even if they couldn’t Airbnb

    The true number of whole-properties available to the rental market is far far lower.

    Even in the last few weeks only a few hundred properties in Dublin City from that ‘7,200’ appeared on the rental market.

    This is no panacea.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    I was talking to one guy yesterday who has advertised an apartment in Dublin City Center.
    He was very honest, but it didnt suit me.

    He told me he has been furloughed right back in March and moved back home with parents for the quarantine so he could help out there rather than be locked in an apartment.
    He was offering the apartment for maximum for 6 months but if the he got his job back he would want the place back within the week.

    Im looking for more long term, but I understand that he is trying to make his expensive property pay its way. I dont think hes going to get anyone at the moment with those conditions though.
    That would have been ripe for Airbnb though in normal times.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    I was talking to one guy yesterday who has advertised an apartment in Dublin City Center.
    He was very honest, but it didnt suit me.

    He told me he has been furloughed right back in March and moved back home with parents for the quarantine so he could help out there rather than be locked in an apartment.
    He was offering the apartment for maximum for 6 months but if the he got his job back he would want the place back within the week.

    Im looking for more long term, but I understand that he is trying to make his expensive property pay its way. I dont think hes going to get anyone at the moment with those conditions though.
    That would have been ripe for Airbnb though in normal times.

    Having to cover the mortgage alone on an investment property for a year or so would be par for the course (albeit this is an extreme event) but it is likely to only be until things can start to get back to normal into Q1 2020 (the relevance of Q1 2020 being the start of semester two in colleges and the start of the tourist season in spring). Not a long period in the grand scheme of things.


  • Registered Users Posts: 896 ✭✭✭shenanagans


    sk8board wrote: »
    Bear in mind that the 7,200 number includes:
    - people who live in the house too
    - people genuinely following the 90 day Airbnb rule
    - people who wouldn’t rent the house even if they couldn’t Airbnb

    The true number of whole-properties available to the rental market is far far lower.

    Even in the last few weeks only a few hundred properties in Dublin City from that ‘7,200’ appeared on the rental market.

    This is no panacea.

    Improved regulation would help with this.... Encourage landlords into the market.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    Improved regulation would help with this.... Encourage landlords into the market.

    FG will hopefully realise their mistakes the last few years as part of negotiations to go into government, having been responsible for the introduction of measures the past few years which drove landlords out of the market. The key will be to welcome institutional investors but not to give in to all demands from the powerful institutional lobby groups. Short term tax breaks for individual landlords would be a great start to getting them back into the market and for lowering rents, but it is also important that evictions for non-payment of rent can be streamlined. Not sure how practicable that is in the current environment unfortunately but it is a bugbear of mine that it is not possible to shift tenants for non-payment of rent (and mortgage holders for non-payment for that matter) in an efficient manner; it hurts good tenants and scares away landlords.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,100 ✭✭✭sk8board


    As a full time LL, I would be massively sceptical that LL’s (of all groups) would get a tax break to stay in the market. Covid etc etc.

    Public sentiment is very pro market forces - ‘if the LLs want to leave, then let them go’ etc etc, even if the results would be negative for the renters.

    Personal view here is that the Gov should allow people with 3+ properties to form a company, be beholden to the rules, and professionalise the market.
    They love the reits, simply because one conversation is the same as talking to 2,000 single property LLs.


  • Registered Users Posts: 896 ✭✭✭shenanagans


    FG will hopefully realise their mistakes the last few years as part of negotiations to go into government, having been responsible for the introduction of measures the past few years which drove landlords out of the market. The key will be to welcome institutional investors but not to give in to all demands from the powerful institutional lobby groups. Short term tax breaks for individual landlords would be a great start to getting them back into the market and for lowering rents, but it is also important that evictions for non-payment of rent can be streamlined. Not sure how practicable that is in the current environment unfortunately but it is a bugbear of mine that it is not possible to shift tenants for non-payment of rent (and mortgage holders for non-payment for that matter) in an efficient manner; it hurts good tenants and scares away landlords.

    Absolutely. Next housing minister needs to use more carrot and less stick when it comes to landlords and potential landlords.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Having to cover the mortgage alone on an investment property for a year or so would be par for the course (albeit this is an extreme event) but it is likely to only be until things can start to get back to normal into Q1 2020 (the relevance of Q1 2020 being the start of semester two in colleges and the start of the tourist season in spring). Not a long period in the grand scheme of things.




    He was offering the apartment he was living in though. But he wont be living in it while the coronavirus is ongoing.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Improved regulation would help with this.... Encourage landlords into the market.




    I thought about property investment a few years ago. Nothing the government gave at this stage would get me to invest. I wouldnt trust them to not just take it all backi when they felt like it, but make it even worse.


    It would want to be zero tax and a promise that it would be like that for at least 10 years. I still wouldnt belive them though :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,133 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Do the regs also apply to people that let their house or apartment for a couple of weeks while they go on holiday? Or is it just units used for short term let’s full time?
    I’ve used Airbnb in other countries a few times and the house was primary residence of people who were gone on holidays for a few weeks. I don’t see a problem with that.

    It depends on the use the tenant is making of the property. The RTB does nt cover lettings where it is for the purpose of a holiday. It doesn't define the lenght of a holiday so it would be a question of fact if it arose as to whether or not the letting was for a holiday.

    There is no minimum length to qualify as a letting comprehended by the ACT so any letting which is not for a holiday may be caught.

    It could be that in a letting for a week so that the occupants can attend a conference that it is not a letting for the purpose of a holiday. There will be great fun in the RTB when these cases start.


  • Registered Users Posts: 896 ✭✭✭shenanagans


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    I thought about property investment a few years ago. Nothing the government gave at this stage would get me to invest. I wouldnt trust them to not just take it all backi when they felt like it, but make it even worse.


    It would want to be zero tax and a promise that it would be like that for at least 10 years. I still wouldnt belive them though :)

    They had great incentives to buy property in last recession........you could buy a property and sell it tax free 6 or 7 years later. And with the huge changes to regulation in favour of tenants it's no wonder many LLs left the market.

    I think regulation is a big factor now if you're a LL. There's no protection against bad tenants. It could cost you thousands in legal fees and lost rent to evict a tenant.....thanks to FG.

    It's time to put protection on place for LLs too.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,659 ✭✭✭Sunny Disposition


    Being a landlord in a big city has been like shooting fish in the proverbial barrel for years, Dublin, London, NY, same forces in all, huge global trend to urbanisation. Was lucky in that I had properties in London for some of it and Dublin in latter years.
    Don’t think the next 20 years will be the same, technology changed office work already, but it’s about to do it in a very different way. People are going to move house much less often for work, and when they do move it’s going to be more likely to be for a primary industry or something like teaching or nursing.
    There will be much less need to live in big cities, the upward pressure on prices won’t be there to anything like the same extent.
    Everything moves on and huge premiums for living in big cities won’t be paid for much longer.
    Strange to say it now but I think smaller regional town are a better bet for investors now.


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