Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 12:42PM

New Home wrote: »

Right, there's no proof that they're effective, you say. There's no proof they aren't, either. So why not err on the side of caution?

I don't say it, the evidence is weak is what is stated. I've no need of a mask, any more than the 90% of people I see outside without masks, who are following the guidelines correctly. I am not paranoid nor do I believe this thing has a half-life longer than what's in Chernobyl!

Wibbs · 23-04-2020 12:42PM

is_that_so wrote: »

For certain circumstances yes, we do know that but the effectiveness outside of that is what is deemed questionable.

Look at the nations who have better numbers, who are at the top of the tree with fewer deaths and infections. Every single one of them advocated masks in publicly shared spaces. They also had border controls and proper contact tracing and testing and quarantine plans and setups. We have had almost none of those. Testing is catching up, but it has had to catch up.

joe_99 · 23-04-2020 12:44PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

The inconvenient truth for many around here!

Can't compare countries. If we weren't testing we'd have zero deaths and zero cases. Let's go down that road and end lockdown.

Is that your proposal?

We need to test test test find more and more cases and save lives. More cases found the better. Let's get that discovered case number up.

joe_99 · 23-04-2020 12:45PM

V8 Interceptor wrote: »

So the USA with 2,000 miles of land border and 1.5 million people flying in every day can stop immigration.

Yet a poster the other day told me it was impossible to close wee Ireland's borders

USA has closed borders. Every entry has a check point. We have an open border with hundreds of entry points unmanned.

Wibbs · 23-04-2020 12:47PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't say it, the evidence is weak is what is stated. I've no need of a mask, any more than the 90% of people I see outside without masks, who are following the guidelines correctly. I am not paranoid nor do I believe this thing has a half-life longer than what's in Chernobyl!

Following the guidelines... This folks is what is wrong with too many in Ireland and it's rife in the HSE(then again avoiding blame and responsibility is written through civil service like letters in a stick of rock). Blindly follow authority even in the face of obvious logic and no matter what evidence is presented if it goes against the "guidelines" it's automatically discarded.

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 12:48PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Look at the nations who have better numbers, who are at the top of the tree with fewer deaths and infections. Every single one of them advocated masks in publicly shared spaces. They also had border controls and proper contact tracing and testing and quarantine plans and setups. We have had almost none of those. Testing is catching up, but it has had to catch up.

I'm not seduced by most numbers on this any more. What I understand now for Ireland is that the R0 is very close to zero, hospitalisation is falling as are the numbers in ICU. From 5th May the approach will be very gradual easing of restrictions, test, isolate, contact trace any cases to manage the incidence of the disease. That looks to be our strategy and they believe it is the right one.

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 12:53PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Following the guidelines... This folks is what is wrong with too many in Ireland and it's rife in the HSE(then again avoiding blame and responsibility is written through civil service like letters in a stick of rock). Blindly follow authority even in the face of obvious logic and no matter what evidence is presented if it goes against the "guidelines" it's automatically discarded.

I trust people will take personal responsibility and in my view they have done so during this. I really don't know why you insist on claiming my posts are anti-masks. All I am doing is repeating the official line.

Wibbs · 23-04-2020 12:55PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I'm not seduced by most numbers on this any more. What I understand now for Ireland is that the R0 is very close to zero, hospitalisation is falling as are the numbers in ICU. From 5th May the approach will be very gradual easing of restrictions, test, isolate, contact trace any cases to manage the incidence of the disease. That looks to be our strategy and they believe it is the right one.

They can believe all they like, but pardon me and going by past and current results if I don't exactly have that much faith in their ability to test, isolate and contact trace.

Fr_Dougal · 23-04-2020 12:55PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Some good news , cases look to be on downward trajectory. These are not my charts. I'm far too lazy for that craic. Luckily HPSC make them for us so feel free to critique them via post on why they are doing it wrong. I'm sure they welcome any and all feedback.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2022.04.2020_v1.0_website.pdf

Some bad news. Number of health care worker as percentage of total rising. Now at 28%.

Deaths are rising, so are new cases.

stephenjmcd · 23-04-2020 12:56PM

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1253286509928763393?s=19

A follow up from an earlier tweet regarding PPE in nursing homes. Although it's a mess across all settings, HSE flagged previously about some donations not meeting standards

is_that_so · 23-04-2020 12:58PM

Wibbs wrote: »

They can believe all they like, but pardon me and going by past and current results if I don't exactly have that much faith in their ability to test, isolate and contact trace.

Well, they have acknowledged the challenges and issues with it along the way. They've also stated that they will not recommend relaxations unless such a rapid response system is in place.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-04-2020 12:58PM

Has anyone considered approaching Matt Damon regarding the situation?

ShineOn7 · 23-04-2020 01:00PM

This is a little disconcerting. I think we need to start hoping more for very effective treatment rather than a vaccine

"We've never made a successful vaccine for a coronavirus before. This is why it's so difficult"

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/12146616?fbclid=IwAR01dhqZCkmqdP094FFKKMC5GTwO31MUGwSmKeZ8sMHqdMB6-Hd_wBh-zMI

Wibbs · 23-04-2020 01:00PM

is_that_so wrote: »

I trust people will take personal responsibility and in my view they have done so during this. I really don't know why you insist on claiming my posts are anti-masks. All I am doing is repeating the official line.

Where was this personal responsibility in panic buying, the need for the Guards to checkpoint roads to stop morons travelling to holiday homes, the lines of morons queuing for bags of chips, the crowds of morons going to beauty spots that had to be locked down. I was out and about this morning and traffic is way up on two weeks ago. I doubt that so many were on necessary journeys. TBH I was happy enough to see it as it felt more normal, but I have little faith in a populations overall personal responsibility levels.

the.red.baron · 23-04-2020 01:02PM

How did that Danny Boy character come up with his lists of deaths by the different reporting criteria?

is there a comprehensive list?

Drumpot · 23-04-2020 01:03PM

Wibbs wrote: »

They can believe all they like, but pardon me and going by past and current results if I don't exactly have that much faith in their ability to test, isolate and contact trace.

I think we will have that South Korea App strategy eventually, particularly if a vaccine or better alternative is not found.

lalababa · 23-04-2020 01:03PM

I and many others have postulated that c-19 may have been here as early as December. Both from anecdotal stories, and from different reports from the US and China.
It's only a suggestion, and most use the word 'may', but it seems to raise a hell of a stink on these forums. It's almost like an anti greta Thurnberg triggering utterance.
C-19 was not here until I say it was..all hail c-19.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-04-2020 01:06PM

Singapore reports another 1,037 new cases, up from 1,016 yesterday and a new daily high. Total 11,178.

BanditLuke · 23-04-2020 01:06PM

Drumpot wrote: »

I think we will have that South Korea App strategy eventually, particularly if a vaccine or better alternative is not found.

Yeah but you'll have a massive amount of asshats complaining about civil liberties and other such sh1te on here if the government even attempt to suggest some kind of digital tracking of people.

eddie73 · 23-04-2020 01:08PM

What would people's thoughts be on this as a strategy.

I know many people have died and this is an awful tragedy. The following strategy is made without trying to offend any families that may have been bereaved by the virus.

What if the government introduced a system whereby younger people were given the virus in a controlled way?
They would then self isolate for 3 weeks and be able to go out again.

The pros and cons to this are obvious.

Cons
No long term angle on the effects of this virus on a person.
No guarantee that a person wouldn't get very ill. (the chances of this would be much smaller than an older person).
No guarantee that the person would become immune as 2nd infections have been reported. (a handful globally).

Pros
There would be a controlled spread of the virus rather than a random one.
Herd immunity would most likely be attained much quicker as the virus would have less options in spreading due to an increased number of previously infected people in the public.
The virus would therefore be much less disruptive and take less time to run its course.
We could reopen the country as a result of this.
There would be much less chance of people becoming infected randomly after a few batches of people got exposed under controlled circumstances.

This would have to be done on a voluntary basis though.

I am not entirely sure this would work, but it is worth thinking about all the same.

The notion that by locking down indefinitely is going to win us something is a bit delusional without something else in situ to speed up the progress and end of this episode.

Drumpot · 23-04-2020 01:08PM

lalababa wrote: »

I and many others have postulated that c-19 may have been here as early as December. Both from anecdotal stories, and from different reports from the US and China.
It's only a suggestion, and most use the word 'may', but it seems to raise a hell of a stink on these forums. It's almost like an anti greta Thurnberg triggering utterance.
C-19 was not here until I say it was..all hail c-19.

The only way I can reconcile the virus being here since December and is not knowing is if it was a less dangerous strain. If it had been in Ireland in December I can’t work out how our healthcare system wouldn’t be in bits by the end of February before we took any measures.

I can accept new information that has a rational line of thought but “more people had flu” or “coughs” (my wife and Ihad one for months between jan-March) doesn’t tell us anything.

What Username Guidelines · 23-04-2020 01:09PM

lalababa wrote: »

I and many others have postulated that c-19 may have been here as early as December. Both from anecdotal stories, and from different reports from the US and China.
It's only a suggestion, and most use the word 'may', but it seems to raise a hell of a stink on these forums. It's almost like an anti greta Thurnberg triggering utterance.
C-19 was not here until I say it was..all hail c-19.

It's an easy one to dismiss by saying ICU didnt fill up, but you could alternatively argue that this is the second, more-deadly wave. Although I also think too many attribute the behaviour of the Spanish flu to this and assume it will come in waves, who knows how it will play out.

Christy42 · 23-04-2020 01:10PM

lalababa wrote: »

I and many others have postulated that c-19 may have been here as early as December. Both from anecdotal stories, and from different reports from the US and China.
It's only a suggestion, and most use the word 'may', but it seems to raise a hell of a stink on these forums. It's almost like an anti greta Thurnberg triggering utterance.
C-19 was not here until I say it was..all hail c-19.

I mean there may be an invisible teapot floating around the world. The world "may" doesn't make you immune to others thinking it a terrible idea.

Honestly I am unsure. It is very easy to mix up a mild cases of Covid with the flu or other similar illness. Plus I feel like it should have spread far quicker and not have cases so traceable back to known hotpots in February.

Maybe cases were missed but anecdotal data doesn't really suggest it too heavily so at the moment it requires further evidence for serious consideration. It would entirely credit all the random calls for osed Borders people wanted in February if it had already been here in December.

BanditLuke · 23-04-2020 01:11PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Where was this personal responsibility in panic buying, the need for the Guards to checkpoint roads to stop morons travelling to holiday homes, the lines of morons queuing for bags of chips, the crowds of morons going to beauty spots that had to be locked down. I was out and about this morning and traffic is way up on two weeks ago. I doubt that so many were on necessary journeys. TBH I was happy enough to see it as it felt more normal, but I have little faith in a populations overall personal responsibility levels.

Was always going to happen without proper enforcement and massive fines for the idiots who think this isn't serious. They where always my main worry spoiling it for us all.

The way things are going I wouldn't be surprised if we have a massive surge come mid June if restrictions aren't ramped up. Honestly we've never wanted ****ty weather for the next few weeks as much as we do now.

the.red.baron · 23-04-2020 01:12PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Where was this personal responsibility in panic buying, the need for the Guards to checkpoint roads to stop morons travelling to holiday homes, the lines of morons queuing for bags of chips, the crowds of morons going to beauty spots that had to be locked down. I was out and about this morning and traffic is way up on two weeks ago. I doubt that so many were on necessary journeys. TBH I was happy enough to see it as it felt more normal, but I have little faith in a populations overall personal responsibility levels.

look at the traffic cams, roads are running at about 5% of normal traffic

about 50/50 cars to trucks

Buses are empty

people need to go to the shops, some need to go to work

Nowhere to go otherwise really

How many really went to holidays homes, I know of 1 myself? again you had stories of tailbacks on the n11, and it was checkpoint caused it with minimal traffic

I mean we had stories of tonnes of English cars over here on holiday but the ferries said nah to that

the vast majority are very responsible, sure how can we just follow the leader as you say if we arent

Drumpot · 23-04-2020 01:13PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

Yeah but you'll have a massive amount of asshats complaining about civil liberties and other such sh1te on here if the government even attempt to suggest some kind of digital tracking of people.

True but there’s always these belligerent kind no matter what you do.

There is only so many asshat proof solutions you can accommodate. :pac:

Kermit.de.frog · 23-04-2020 01:15PM

The Washington Post and CNN report that in New York the figures for survival once a patient infected with COVID-19 goes on a ventillator looks even lower than was initially reported. The data showed that 88% of coronavirus patients who were placed on ventilators in the state's largest health catchment didn’t survive.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/22/health/coronavirus-ventilator-patients-die/index.html

the.red.baron · 23-04-2020 01:16PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Singapore reports another 1,037 new cases, up from 1,016 yesterday and a new daily high. Total 11,178.

11k cases and 12 deaths, that's remarkable stats

wakka12 · 23-04-2020 01:17PM

Castille la Manche becomes the second region of Spain after Madrid where greater than 0.1% of the province's population has died after contracting coronavirus

The province with a population of just over 2 million has recorded almost 2200 deaths

briany · 23-04-2020 01:17PM

eddie73 wrote: »

What would people's thoughts be on this as a strategy.

I know many people have died and this is an awful tragedy. The following strategy is made without trying to offend any families that may have been bereaved by the virus.

What if the government introduced a system whereby younger people were given the virus in a controlled way?
They would then self isolate for 3 weeks and be able to go out again.

The pros and cons to this are obvious.

Cons
No long term angle on the effects of this virus on a person.
No guarantee that a person wouldn't get very ill. (the chances of this would be much smaller than an older person).
No guarantee that the person would become immune as 2nd infections have been reported. (a handful globally).

Pros
There would be a controlled spread of the virus rather than a random one.
Herd immunity would most likely be attained much quicker as the virus would have less options in spreading due to an increased number of previously infected people in the public.
The virus would therefore be much less disruptive and take less time to run its course.
We could reopen the country as a result of this.
There would be much less chance of people becoming infected randomly after a few batches of people got exposed under controlled circumstances.

This would have to be done on a voluntary basis though.

I am not entirely sure this would work, but it is worth thinking about all the same.

The notion that by locking down indefinitely is going to win us something is a bit delusional without something else in situ to speed up the progress and end of this episode.

For all of certain people's big talk, no-one is going to willfully contract this virus.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Comments