Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

JP Liz V1 · 22-04-2020 05:50PM

Tony said we didn't have a first wave as reproductive level below 1, so does that mean we didn't hit peak / surge?

Rob A. Bank · 22-04-2020 05:50PM

is_that_so wrote: »

That's a NEPHT/HSE call and they've been consistent in their position/opposition. CDC have made their own call, probably egged on by a few tantrums by the orange one!

Who exactly is on the NEPTH... or is that a state secret ?

ACitizenErased · 22-04-2020 05:51PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Tony said we didn't have a first wave as reproductive level below 1, so does that mean we didn't hit peak / surge?

We didn't have a peak, Dr. Nolan confirmed that last week.

Wombatman · 22-04-2020 05:51PM

George 2 - The Second Wave

lbj666 · 22-04-2020 05:51PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Isn't that a lag factor though because some of those 631 from today alone are likely to end up in hospital at some point?

Eh yes, but its about gauging whether the health services is coping at any given moment in time. Many will be out of hospital by the time some of those 631 get are admitted. Monitoring rate of admissions vs rate of discharge is a very important indicator.

is_that_so · 22-04-2020 05:51PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Isn't that a lag factor though because some of those 631 from today alone are likely to end up in hospital at some point?

The ICU numbers tend to be very up to date now that patients are coming out of ICU.

An Ciarraioch · 22-04-2020 05:51PM

Brycen Round Symbol wrote: »

Definitely noticed this in the last day or two, more neighbours having friends or relatives over to visit here and construction vans all over the place too doing work.

Where people might have been leaving home once or twice a week for groceries seemingly there's several trips a day now.

We have almost 2 weeks left of this lockdown but it seems to be over already for more by the day.

Probably another four, if there's no consistency with either the cases or deaths.

Longing · 22-04-2020 05:52PM

peasant wrote: »

I'm more or less regularly listening to podcasts from this guy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j5I68RvlTno

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Drosten

He's Germany's chief Corona virus explainer and (among other things) one of the virologists that developed the current test that everybody uses...so he knows his stuff.

In his latest podcast he mentions this:

There were several studies done on infections in family groups (i.e. not in hospitals) and the results are the following:

44% of transmissions of infections happen before the transmitter shows symptoms, the last day before symptoms show seems to be the most dangerous

4 days after the first show of symptoms, transmission is drastically reduced

1 week after the first show of symptoms, transmission effectively stops

Now, read that again....

...think....

Realise ...that most people that got infected did so without the slightest hint or pointer that they might be in danger and most transmitters had no inkling that they in fact were one.

And that's what makes this virus so bloody dangerous and discussions about opening the pubs etc (sure, I'm grand, nothing wrong with me or my friends) so exceedingly stupid.

and for all the bean counters and number fetishists on here...No, I don't have a bloody link or an excel file with a coloured graph to back this all up...it's a quote from a podcast from a guy that I and at least half of all Germany explicitly trusts ...mkay?

If this report is accurate its really bad news. Just think even with the vaccine you will always be chasing the virus especially if restrictions are lifted. Maybe the German government know that and have started to lift some restrictions and talk that the Bundesliga will start up in early May, But I would say behind closed doors

Akabusi · 22-04-2020 05:53PM

On masks, a friend of mine who lives in Singapore sent me a message with the following:
Covid carrier - chances of transmission to a person wearing a mask = 70%
Covid carrier wearing a mask - chances of transmission to a person not wearing a mask = 5%
Covid carrier wearing a mask - chances of transmission to a person wearing a mask = 1.5%

office of information · 22-04-2020 05:53PM

Here are the official Coronavirus guidelines:

1. Basically, you can’t leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can. Less sunshine, less health. All nicely cuddled up and guaranteed to spread to all in same house. No one can stay indoors for long so they all go to the same supermarket every day. This doubles the spread-factor R compared to changing nothing at all from the start.
2. Masks are useless, but maybe you have to wear one, it can save you, it is useless, but maybe it is mandatory as well.
They only work if you wear extra long ones with the only opening around your belly button and matching big specs.
3. Stores are closed, except those that are open. Hardware is closed so we can not entertain ourselves painting etc. and we can do no repairs around the house so someone else has to come do those.
4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors, you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick. Nothing new here, walk in the hospital and get carried out.
5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster. Same death rate as the flu so far.
6. Gloves won’t help, but they can still help. Just to prevent you from touching yourself in odd places like your mouth or eyes or nostril.
7. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it’s important to GO OUT. Gardai on the way will stop you so they can infect you. They wear no mask and stick their head in the window.

10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there… They did the same in the past with other outbreaks.
11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms. Oh, my.. High temperature. all of them so far.

15. If you are sick, you can’t go out, but you can go to the pharmacy. Two days ago in Dublin a heart patient on the way to get his medical supplies got stopped and send back. He was followed home by Gardai
16. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn’t wear masks or gloves. But you have to have your groceries decontaminated outside for 3 hours. Pizza too? and ice cream :-)
17. Every disturbing article or disturbing interview starts with “I don’t want to trigger panic, but…” Because fear will stop you from thinking. It is the fear, it is not the beer.

21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn’t say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily. Not that long at all, depending on the surface. They have ways to keep em forever.
22. The virus stays in the air – well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room, in one hour a sick person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe. 2 M in low wind near a wall is exactly the right way to get the whole lot infected. That is why elderly who should stay at home are asked to come early when it is colder and they have even less resistance.

24. We have no treatment, except that there may be one that apparently is not dangerous unless you take too much (which is the case with all medications). There are several but they are not used in the west.

https://youtu.be/SP4veonfnw8

Rob A. Bank · 22-04-2020 05:53PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Hmm, a GP.

Yeaa... ignore the graphs which show how disastrously we are managing the pandemic !

https://twitter.com/Dickdoc123/status/1250198200025309184

JP Liz V1 · 22-04-2020 05:53PM

Eamonn Ryan and Alan Kelly could be one of the rotating Taoiseach

Harry Palmr · 22-04-2020 05:54PM

It ought to be the law for death certs to be completed and sent up the chain within 48 hours.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 22-04-2020 05:54PM

Julianna Gorgeous Hydrant wrote: »

How can cases be still rising when most people have been indoors for 3+ weeks......

Some have... others have taken a more laid-back approach.

But I'm sure the positive spin-merchants will be along soon, to blow sunshine and moonbeams up everyone's ar$e... and tell us all how great we're actually doing!

And anyone who disagrees will be some hysterical doom-monger!

(Even though most of us "doom mongers" are actually the calmest most rational people around here - we just keep it real - no spin required;))

is_that_so · 22-04-2020 05:54PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Who exactly is on the NEPTH... or is that a state secret ?

National Public Health Emergency Team. Spreadsheet link to the members on this page.

https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/4abdb7-minutes-of-national-public-health-emergency-team-nphet-meetings-2019/?referrer=/national-patient-safety-office/patient-safety-surveillance/antimicrobial-resistance-amr-2/public-health-emergency-plan-to-tackle-cpe/nphet-press-releases-minutes-of-meetings/

martingriff · 22-04-2020 05:54PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Its the angle/branding the government are putting on May 5th. "Stay the course", etc.. Simon Harris even tweeted "It will be worth it" which I agree with, but absolutely the wrong phrase to use... If I was only looking at rte and twitter, I'd be booking holidays/flights for May 6th, planning parties or a visit my granny in a nursing home.

The attitude is 'ah sure we're nearly there'.

Except there was no suggestion of a full lift by anything any of them said. Anything I have seen and heard has said yes. So if people think it be a full lift must not be reading or listening properly

ACitizenErased · 22-04-2020 05:54PM

The highest number of deaths per day so far has been 43.

Fr_Dougal · 22-04-2020 05:55PM

This hasn’t levelled off. Give it a week or so until they add more to today’s number.

Brianmwalker · 22-04-2020 05:55PM

Wow, the graph with the date and deaths looks to be still increasing!

GM228 · 22-04-2020 05:55PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Who exactly is on the NEPTH... or is that a state secret ?

There are 24 members of NPHET (not NEPTH), their details are here.

branie2 · 22-04-2020 05:55PM

I'd imagine the number of deaths will go up and down for a while

is_that_so · 22-04-2020 05:56PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

It ought to be the law for death certs to be completed and sent up the chain within 48 hours.

48 hours would be impossible. I am open to correction but I think the limits of reporting can be 3 months.

22-04-2020 05:56PM

Wombatman wrote: »

George 2 - The Second Wave

George Lee needs to be jettisoned to a distant ice floe off Antarctica. Then again, there would be a massive loss of penguins from depression.

Away With The Fairies · 22-04-2020 05:56PM

Akabusi wrote: »

On masks, a friend of mine who lives in Singapore sent me a message with the following:
Covid carrier - chances of transmission to a person wearing a mask = 70%
Covid carrier wearing a mask - chances of transmission to a person not wearing a mask = 5%
Covid carrier wearing a mask - chances of transmission to a person wearing a mask = 1.5%

What are we waiting for? They need to tell everyone to wear some sort of face covering.

lbj666 · 22-04-2020 05:56PM

office of information wrote: »

Here are the official Coronavirus guidelines:

1. Basically, you can’t leave the house for any reason, but if you have to, then you can. Less sunshine, less health. All nicely cuddled up and guaranteed to spread to all in same house. No one can stay indoors for long so they all go to the same supermarket every day. This doubles the spread-factor R compared to changing nothing at all from the start.
2. Masks are useless, but maybe you have to wear one, it can save you, it is useless, but maybe it is mandatory as well.
They only work if you wear extra long ones with the only opening around your belly button and matching big specs.
3. Stores are closed, except those that are open. Hardware is closed so we can not entertain ourselves painting etc. and we can do no repairs around the house so someone else has to come do those.
4. You should not go to hospitals unless you have to go there. Same applies to doctors, you should only go there in case of emergency, provided you are not too sick. Nothing new here, walk in the hospital and get carried out.
5. This virus is deadly but still not too scary, except that sometimes it actually leads to a global disaster. Same death rate as the flu so far.
6. Gloves won’t help, but they can still help. Just to prevent you from touching yourself in odd places like your mouth or eyes or nostril.
7. Everyone needs to stay HOME, but it’s important to GO OUT. Gardai on the way will stop you so they can infect you. They wear no mask and stick their head in the window.

10. Animals are not affected, but there is still a cat that tested positive in Belgium in February when no one had been tested, plus a few tigers here and there… They did the same in the past with other outbreaks.
11. You will have many symptoms when you are sick, but you can also get sick without symptoms, have symptoms without being sick, or be contagious without having symptoms. Oh, my.. High temperature. all of them so far.

15. If you are sick, you can’t go out, but you can go to the pharmacy. Two days ago in Dublin a heart patient on the way to get his medical supplies got stopped and send back. He was followed home by Gardai
16. You can get restaurant food delivered to the house, which may have been prepared by people who didn’t wear masks or gloves. But you have to have your groceries decontaminated outside for 3 hours. Pizza too? and ice cream :-)
17. Every disturbing article or disturbing interview starts with “I don’t want to trigger panic, but…” Because fear will stop you from thinking. It is the fear, it is not the beer.

21. The virus remains active on different surfaces for two hours, no, four, no, six, no, we didn’t say hours, maybe days? But it takes a damp environment. Oh no, not necessarily. Not that long at all, depending on the surface. They have ways to keep em forever.
22. The virus stays in the air – well no, or yes, maybe, especially in a closed room, in one hour a sick person can infect ten, so if it falls, all our children were already infected at school before it was closed. But remember, if you stay at the recommended social distance, however in certain circumstances you should maintain a greater distance, which, studies show, the virus can travel further, maybe. 2 M in low wind near a wall is exactly the right way to get the whole lot infected. That is why elderly who should stay at home are asked to come early when it is colder and they have even less resistance.

24. We have no treatment, except that there may be one that apparently is not dangerous unless you take too much (which is the case with all medications). There are several but they are not used in the west.

https://youtu.be/SP4veonfnw8

Not going to even start with that horse****

Arghus · 22-04-2020 05:56PM

People being complacent is going to cost us badly. More people are out and about. Supposedly the weather is going to be scorching for the next few days.

ACitizenErased · 22-04-2020 05:56PM

Tony says the percentage growth of deaths day on day is still decreasing.

Seamai · 22-04-2020 05:57PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

An additional 631 more cases since yesterday according to Holohan, 49 new deaths.

I have noticed a more lax attitude in recent days myself in public and I wonder is the beginning of rises associated with fecklessness beginning to come through in particular related to the Easter bank holiday weekend, we shall see...

Definitely noticed that more lax attitude in the last few days and yet the question being asked ad nauseam is "when will the restrictions be relaxed?" I think it needs to be driven home to people that taking any pressure off the pedal over the next two weeks has the potential to push any relaxation out further.

peasant · 22-04-2020 05:58PM

Longing wrote: »

If this report is accurate its really bad news. Just think even with the vaccine you will always be chasing the virus especially if restrictions are lifted. Maybe the German government know that and have started to lift some restrictions ....

In the same podcast Drosten actually voices strong concerns over the partial lifting of restrictions that is going on in Germany right now. He is worried that Germany will needlessly lose the advantage (caused by early and comprehensive testing) that they've enjoyed up to now.

He doesn't normally voice his opinion, he insists on discussing facts only but in this case he says that he felt he had to.

Allinall · 22-04-2020 05:58PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

This hasn’t levelled off. Give it a week or so until they add more to today’s number.

When they add more to today’s number, it’ll be a different day.
No day’s number has ever changed.

So..... leveling off it is.

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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