Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 22-04-2020 01:36PM

Deleted User wrote: »

77 deaths reported which occurred over the previous 2 weeks. There is a lag in reporting all deaths. And deaths will lag cases anyway up to 10-14 days+, so in essence even if 77 deaths occur on a particular day, that represents the new infections from two weeks ago.

Leading indicators of the situation are showing positive signs:
Daily case growth
Hospitalisations
ICU admissions
R0

It doesn't actually matter what day you confirm deaths...

Ultimately what matters, is that our average daily death rate has been increasing dramatically over the last 2-3 weeks. It makes no difference if we get 2 deaths yesterday and 100 today... the average will still show.

Our average was 3.3 deaths per day 3 weeks ago... now we're averaging 16.5 deaths per day. That's not a very positive progression in daily deaths.

Xertz · 22-04-2020 01:37PM

bekker wrote: »

More than half of Swedish households are single-person, making social distancing easier to carry out. More people work from home than anywhere else in Europe, and everyone has access to fast Internet, which helps large chunks of the workforce stay productive away from the office. source Bloomberg

There is criticism in Sweden over deaths in nursing homes and government experts admit they didn't do enough. Guardian/Telegraph AFAIR

It's also being reported that there is strong socio-economic split in case numbers.

I think Ireland has a big potential to get people working from home. I know a lot of my colleagues have been doing work from home a day or two a week anyway.

I think it will probably become a far, far bigger feature of life.

When you get away from dense packed areas, Irish housing is pretty spacious and with a shift of focus, you could see a lot of the suburban towns / regional towns with potential star to really pick up economically as working remotely may become far more of a thing.

Juwwi · 22-04-2020 01:38PM

polesheep wrote: »

Newsnight on BBC2 last night reported that already 2,700 cancers have been missed in the UK since Covid19 kicked off. How's that for rubbish?

That's dreadful , but hospitals are still open here for anyone to attend A&E,
Im not sure on the UK situation

polesheep wrote: »

GPs are doctors. Doctors work with the ill. If they aren't prepared to do that then they shouldn't have signed up for it.

Again how do you know doctors aren't working with the ill .

They are , they have just stopped allowing lots of sick people congregate or enter the same building to prevent the spread and protect themselves and staff.

At the start of all this there was something like 90% of the covid tests coming back negative ,,1000's of people thought they had it but didn't and would of
needlessly of been putting themselves at risk going into GP surgeries

Have you or a family member needed a GP and couldn't get one or are you just making this up

Kermit.de.frog · 22-04-2020 01:39PM

growleaves wrote: »

If NYC and UK juice their figures with "all cause excess mortality" thrown in and Sweden don't, its going to make lockdown seem a bit mad isn't it?

If the figures are streamlined to a standardised method of reporting across countries, we will still have accurate comparisons whatever the raw numbers.

These are excess deaths over the norm.

It's patently obvious what the bulk of that curve represents.

It's not people choking on peanuts.

I'm done with someone who ignores facts and plays ignorant.

Schuu

And take these with you

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schmoo2k · 22-04-2020 01:40PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I've met one other person, besides myself, on my last two trips to the supermarket who wore a facemask. I just don't get it, are we not trying to ensure we get rid of this thing?

Did the supermarket sell them? Personally I am trying to do 1 shop every 10 to 14 days and if the shop has masks and sanitizer I will buy and use - but to date I have not seen them for sale...

is_that_so · 22-04-2020 01:41PM

Xertz wrote: »

I think Ireland has a big potential to get people working from home. I know a lot of my colleagues have been doing work from home a day or two a week anyway.

I think it will probably become a far, far bigger feature of life.

When you get away from dense packed areas, Irish housing is pretty spacious and with a shift of focus, you could see a lot of the suburban towns / regional towns with potential star to really pick up economically as working remotely may become far more of a thing.

In conversation with a number of people doing this and opinions vary widely. If your work is all about the technology it's less onerous but quite a few are "going up the wall" with the restriction. Choice rather than requirement is the way forward on it.

Drumpot · 22-04-2020 01:41PM

Making comparisons between countries really is pie in the sky stuff right now.

For example, with Sweden, I would say comparing them with Finland and Norway is a more reasonable comparison then with Ireland.

How countries are recording their deaths (are they recording them all) is a huge factor manipulating figures. I would trust that the Irish are at least trying to report deaths on the higher side, then other countries that seem to be taking an alternative approach (not necessarily anything sinister to it, just a decision they have made). Cultural differences , virus strain and even geographical logistics could play a significant role in the spread of the virus. I hope as we get more accurate information more people look beyond "its the government/Authorities" fault as that's too simplistic a view that doesnt tell a fraction of the story. What is happening in nursing homes is a tragedy, nobody is saying otherwise, but this entire crisis is one big massive tragedy that we will only be able to properly judge at a much future date. While the nursing home fiasco may always look like the awful negligence it looks, alot of other things may show that our authorities got more right then wrong.

I would love to see countries being compared moreso in terms of average deaths in March/April over the last few years versus this year. This for me would give a far more realistic idea of actual deaths from COVID. It may also show the damage that COVID is doing indirectly (people not going to hospital if they need it or leave it too late).

This ambiguity is allowing people to make false statements like "the lockdowns dont work" or "Ireland is the worst" when in fact we are slaves to the unfinished statistics we have to use.

Juwwi · 22-04-2020 01:43PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They are trusting the CMO and HSE, who say the evidence is weak. My own observations have consistently been in the order of 1 in 10 wearing one.

The same HSE who said we were at very low of getting the virus here :rolleyes:

If you have a phobia of masks so be it ,but stop trying to put people off wearing them , what skin off your nose is it if someone else wears a mask .

eagle eye · 22-04-2020 01:43PM

schmoo2k wrote:

Did the supermarket sell them? Personally I am trying to do 1 shop every 10 to 14 days and if the shop has masks and sanitizer I will buy and use - but to date I have not seen them for sale...

I bought mine in a pharmacy when collecting meds.

wakka12 · 22-04-2020 01:43PM

growleaves wrote: »

If NYC and UK juice their figures with "all cause excess mortality" thrown in and Sweden don't, its going to make lockdown seem a bit mad isn't it?

If the figures are streamlined to a standardised method of reporting across countries, we will still have accurate comparisons whatever the raw numbers.

But why would excess mortality to be so much higher than average right now other than coronavirus? Theres not really any other explanation for it
Excess hospital deaths in recent weeks in England and Wales are definitely because of coronavirus, not much of a stretch to say the excess home deaths which occurred at the same time period are from coronavirus

Especially given that its almost May and other flu like illnesses would be very minimal at the moment

Xertz · 22-04-2020 01:45PM

The hospital are open, but are people afraid to go?
I know quite a few people who would need to be having a heart attack or something serious before they would go to a hospital right now.

The one big change though is because we are actually using the GPs to really triage things, probably for the first time on a really systemic basis, a lot of unnecessary visits to A&E may be stopping.

I’ve been shocked at how A&E is used as a catch all. For example a friend of mine had an issue with an on going stomach issue. It was diagnosed and so on and a few months ago a GP sent her to A&E for tests. She has a chronic illness and has a consultant.

Same thing happened this month and the GP made direct contact with a consultant and they diagnosed it by basically medicine using the GP’s observations in the local surgery and adjusted her meds. Problem solved! No A&E trip.

Why weren’t we always doing things like this ?!

BanditLuke · 22-04-2020 01:46PM

schmoo2k wrote: »

Did the supermarket sell them? Personally I am trying to do 1 shop every 10 to 14 days and if the shop has masks and sanitizer I will buy and use - but to date I have not seen them for sale...

I've a rake of them since February but you can buy a pack of ten in the chemist for 8 euro. It's a no brainer and im completely at a loss to why it isn't being enforced as mandatory.

moonage · 22-04-2020 01:47PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I've met one other person, besides myself, on my last two trips to the supermarket who wore a facemask. I just don't get it, are we not trying to ensure we get rid of this thing?

No, we're not trying to get rid of the virus, only trying to slow its transmission.

Most people are going to end up becoming infected but that's not really a problem if the infection fatality rate is around the same as seasonal flu, as studies seem to be showing.

derossi · 22-04-2020 01:47PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

How is the poster boy for ‘Herd Immunity’ doing compared to other Scandinavian neighbours ?

Sweden - 175 deaths/ million pop
Norway - 34 deaths/ million pop
Finland - 25 deaths/ million pop
Denmark - 64 deaths/ million pop

Ritual Senicide (Ättestupa) is a part of Sweden’s myths and legends… and is still being practiced I guess.

Disgusting carry on !

Very difficult to compare methods until it is over. They could carry on with their deaths and then taper off in a few months without a wave while other countries that locked down hard, open up, wave close down again and so on or maybe not.

is_that_so · 22-04-2020 01:50PM

Juwwi wrote: »

The same HSE who said we were at very low of getting the virus here :rolleyes:

If you have a phobia of masks so be it ,but stop trying to put people off wearing them , what skin off your nose is it if someone else wears a mask .

Which was true at the time. We also had no restrictions at certain points but as things changed we adapted. Amused you completely misconstrued my post as a crusade against masks. Not a bit, it's your choice. The only people I see with issues around masks are people who choose to wear one. What I posted about the consistent medical position is factual.

schmoo2k · 22-04-2020 01:50PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

I've a rake of them since February but you can buy a pack of ten in the chemist for 8 euro. It's a no brainer and im completely at a loss to why it isn't being enforced as mandatory.

I will check next time I am in a pharmacy, good hear they are comming back into stock!

growleaves · 22-04-2020 01:53PM

These are excess deaths over the norm.

I know what excess deaths are thanks.

Now go and look at charts detailing excess deaths for every year from say 2013-2020. Look at the differences for each period of each year and compare them. Then put the discrepancies (if any) into context of overall deaths from UTRIs.

I'm done with someone who ignores facts and plays ignorant.

Sorry but the facts have to be seen in a wider context by someone who understands the subject.

Xertz · 22-04-2020 01:54PM

is_that_so wrote: »

In conversation with a number of people doing this and opinions vary widely. If your work is all about the technology it's less onerous but quite a few are "going up the wall" with the restriction. Choice rather than requirement is the way forward on it.

Well yeah, it depends on the type of work and that’s the same everywhere. You’re not going to be able to build microchips in your back bedroom, but a huge % (more than most) of Ireland’s economy is in the services sector and a lot of those jobs can be done at home or in more spacious offices near home too.

I could see a boom in remote working and also bigger spacious coworking spaces with decent facilities for companies to create remote offices.

I mean if you’re a bank or something, why not create a big office out along the M7 somewhere? Is there a need to drag all those employees into your office in the IFSC?

A lot of Dublin could probably focus on hubs around Dublin, reducing all the pressure on the city itself.

You might need your staff in an office for say security reasons if they’re dealing with finances, but so they need long commutes?

Most companies like that can also distribute work to different locations very easily for individual staff.

The entire civil service could also look at things like that. Most of the admin staff should be able to work anywhere they need to. It’s all just manipulating data.

With a bit of imagination you could massively reduce commute pressure and improve quality of life.

Shelle1234. · 22-04-2020 01:54PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

I've a rake of them since February but you can buy a pack of ten in the chemist for 8 euro. It's a no brainer and im completely at a loss to why it isn't being enforced as mandatory.

Probably because at the moment they dont want to create a huge shortage of them. They dont have that level of supply i dont think.

eagle eye · 22-04-2020 01:54PM

Just on the leadership in this country, it's been awful.
I get that people look at Trump and the horrendous job he is doing but you don't compare against Trump. We expect much higher standards of leadership and we don't have that. It's better than Trump but that's not saying much.

bilston · 22-04-2020 01:54PM

droidman123 wrote: »

Yes of course hopefully,but you catergorically stated that there WOULD be a vaccine

I did?

I don't remember that and I'm not going to hoke through the thread to find where I said that, but if I did I will correct myself and say there hopefully will be a vaccine and given all the resources being out into we have as good chance as possible of being successful in finding one.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-04-2020 01:56PM

growleaves wrote: »

I know what excess deaths are thanks.

Now go and look at charts detailing excess deaths for every year from say 2013-2020. Look at the differences for each period of each year and compare them. Then put the discrepancies (if any) into context of overall deaths from UTRIs.

Sorry but the facts have to be seen in a wider context by someone who understands the subject.

I gave you the facts. They are from the Office for National Statistics.

It's not a debate.

There is nothing to debate.

It does not matter what facts you are presented with because you will ignore them.

You don't believe in facts, you have beliefs.

An Ciarraioch · 22-04-2020 01:56PM

The Taiwanese community in Ireland launches a fundraising campaign and donates PPE:

https://www.roc-taiwan.org/ie_en/post/3356.html

growleaves · 22-04-2020 01:56PM

wakka12 wrote: »

not much of a stretch to say the excess home deaths which occurred at the same time period are from coronavirus

It is a stretch. The reason excess home deaths are off the charts is because people can't leave home.

Rob A. Bank · 22-04-2020 01:57PM

derossi wrote: »

Very difficult to compare methods until it is over. They could carry on with their deaths and then taper off in a few months without a wave while other countries that locked down hard, open up, wave close down again and so on or maybe not.

Yet the 'Herd Immunity' fans here are quite happy to accept Sweden's figures, as a justification for the correctness of their sociopathic social Darwinism.

But they are very unhappy to accept other countries figures, when used to compare with Sweden's ongoing Senicide (Ättestupa).

growleaves · 22-04-2020 02:00PM

But they are very unhappy to accept other countries figures, when used to compare with Sweden's

As I've said:

If the reporting metric for countries other than Sweden counts "all cause excess deaths" and Sweden's do not then its going to give the (perhaps false) impression that Sweden's policies were very effective.

tobefrank321 · 22-04-2020 02:02PM

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »

When people are saying we're doing really well, yet we seem to be setting and breaking records every week now. That looks like desensitization to me... or just delusion perhaps!

We set new daily death records 3 days out of 7 last week for example... and then we get that monster record of 77 deaths just on monday... and yet we have people on here, saying "ah sure we're doin' grand loike!"

I just find that mentality a bit bonkers tbh... these are real human lives, dying in quite large numbers every single day! We're not doing very well right now... we're losing a huge amount of people to this!

I don't think anyone can say with certainty deaths are going down or rising. We simply do not know. There's people posting here (we can all name them) telling us we've been heading in the right direction since March 1st.

growleaves · 22-04-2020 02:04PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I gave you the facts. They are from the Office for National Statistics.

It's not a debate.

There is nothing to debate.

It does not matter what facts you are presented with because you will ignore them.

You don't believe in facts, you have beliefs.

I agree its not a debate.

I'm simply pointing out that counting "all cause excess mortality" deaths include people who died without being tested (a fact).

It isn't uncontroversial within the scientific community which you will find out if you look into it - so it doesn't make me some kind of crank to be sceptical.

The article says it is 'unbiased' which is perfectly correct in an abstract sense.

Anyway I don't want to bicker. I've made my point. You're still my favourite muppet character.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! · 22-04-2020 02:05PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Which was true at the time. We also had no restrictions at certain points but as things changed we adapted. Amused you completely misconstrued my post as a crusade against masks. Not a bit, it's your choice. The only people I see with issues around masks are people who choose to wear one. What I posted about the consistent medical position is factual.

What about the consistent medical position of Asian doctors? Many of whom consider mask wearing to be just as important as regular hand washing for the general public!

amadangomor · 22-04-2020 02:08PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Making comparisons between countries really is pie in the sky stuff right now.

For example, with Sweden, I would say comparing them with Finland and Norway is a more reasonable comparison then with Ireland.

How countries are recording their deaths (are they recording them all) is a huge factor manipulating figures. I would trust that the Irish are at least trying to report deaths on the higher side, then other countries that seem to be taking an alternative approach (not necessarily anything sinister to it, just a decision they have made). Cultural differences , virus strain and even geographical logistics could play a significant role in the spread of the virus. I hope as we get more accurate information more people look beyond "its the government/Authorities" fault as that's too simplistic a view that doesnt tell a fraction of the story..........

Excellent analysis of the data that backs up your observations on this tweet.

https://twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1252819591090155523

Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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