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Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

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  • #1052
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Interesting if true.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/coronavirus/coronavirus-has-mutated-to-become-deadlier-in-europe-than-the-us-study-finds/ar-BB12YLmD?ocid=spartanntp

    Hopefully it is becoming milder. Maybe we should welcome some US visitors afterall, although not from New York.


  • #1053
    callaway92
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭callaway92


    Would viewing a house be considered essential?


  • #1054
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Presenting it as an Italian hospital gives the impression that this location has been dealing with the same workload as Milan, Bergamo etc. Campania has a population just over 3 million and had just over 4,000 cases and 300 deaths. The scale of the problem being dealt with in Naples is an order of Magnitude less than that in northern Italy. While the video is impressive, how they would have coped had they been faced with the overwhelming situation elsewhere.


    But according to some we are not overwhelmed here either


  • #1055
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Yes, this can be true.

    Viruses can be very "clever" in a number of ways and will mutate and hide themselves to give the best chance of survival.

    I was just reading about the Spanish Flu this morning and came across the following:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

    So this virus may mutate because of lockdowns to something milder in the general population or alternatively if there is in fact a milder strain, this may gain the upper hand. But it may still remain dangerous for those in nursing homes who cannot isolate.

    It is true that viruses tend to become less lethal as pandemics evolve.

    However there is no guarantee that this will be the case. When you think of it... trillions of viruses are multiplying in each infected case, so mistakes in the replication process are likely to happen. Most mistakes will cause the virus to die but very very occasionally the mistake may cause the virus to become more or less lethal.

    It's a matter of chance really.

    The second wave of the so called 'Spanish Flu' was the one which did the most damage.

    1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif


  • #1056
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Downplaying by stating there may be more deaths than those confirmed? The opposite I'd say, and tells me they are trying to make sure everything is counted

    As I said nothing has changed in the reporting, the only difference is there was a big increase in deaths yesterday but we are told they include older deaths but other days the same thing has happened older deaths included, now its as you said but that was the same before yesterday.


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  • #1057
    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,474 ✭✭✭Obvious Desperate Breakfasts


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    It is true that viruses tend to become less lethal as pandemics evolve.

    However there is no guarantee that this will be the case. When you think of it... trillions of viruses are multiplying in each infected case, so mistakes in the replication process are likely to happen. Most mistakes will cause the virus to die but very very occasionally the mistake may cause the virus to become more or less lethal.

    Yeah, mistakes can be what makes a virus so successful. As far as I recall, the reason HIV was such a fucker was because of its sloppy, error-ridden replication which helped it mutate and evade treatments and immune response.

    In human biology, it’s the same deal with cancer cells. They’re cells gone haywire but it helps them mutate and adapt and is why chemotherapies eventually stop working.


  • #1058
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »
    Yeah, mistakes can be what makes a virus so successful. As far as I recall, the reason HIV was such a fucker was because of its sloppy, error-ridden replication which helped it mutate and evade treatments and immune response.

    In human biology, it’s the same deal with cancer cells. They’re cells gone haywire but it helps them mutate and adapt and is why chemotherapies eventually stop working.

    Luckily Covid-19 seems to be far more stable than influenza or HIV. But it is only known to science for 4 months, so it's a bit early to make a solid judgement on the matter.

    Only time will tell.


  • #1059
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    But according to some we are not overwhelmed here either

    Its regional here too. Outside Dublin and environs its relatively moderate here


  • #1060
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    It is true that viruses tend to become less lethal as pandemics evolve.

    However there is no guarantee that this will be the case. When you think of it... trillions of viruses are multiplying in each infected case, so mistakes in the replication process are likely to happen. Most mistakes will cause the virus to die but very very occasionally the mistake may cause the virus to become more or less lethal.

    It's a matter of chance really.

    The second wave of the so called 'Spanish Flu' was the one which did the most damage.

    1918_spanish_flu_waves.gif

    Ideally we would be smart and encourage the virus to evolve down a certain route. Evolution and natural selection appears to apply to viruses as much as other forms of life.
    The study on the Spanish flu is interesting. In the long run, the milder asymptomatic strain wins out, as the severe strain causes people to stay at home and this strain dies out.

    There is no question the second wave of the Spanish flu was linked to WW1 and the mass movement and stationing of people together. If there are any lessons for covid19 its that mass gatherings like soccer matches, Cheltenham etc, can have lethal effects. This was seen in Spain too with the marches.

    Anyways in summary, lets hope because of lockdowns, a milder strain wins out.


  • #1061
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,209 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Singapore is to introduce new restrictions on businesses and extend it's lock down to June.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/prime-minister-lee-hsien-loong-to-address-nation-on-covid-19-situation-at-5pm


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  • #1062
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 20,375 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Id also wonder is it down to virus becoming less lethal but more contagious as well. Don’t most virus mutate this way for self preservation reasons?

    Virus can mutate. If it does, the the new version is alongside the old version. The one that survives best, survives most to infect others. If it is successful, it might replace the original one. It might actually provide immunity to the victim from the original one. That would be good for future victims if it is less virulent. Otherwise, it might be worse, because there are now more versions around to infect us.

    Virus is a piece of protein, not a thinking entity. That it infects us is nothing to the virus, any more than strychnine cares about the fact that it poisons us and kills us.

    The question is whether the mutations are less of a threat to us, and do those less virulent ones give us immunity to the nastier ones.


  • #1063
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    There has always been a weekend factor to deaths, particularly Sunday and Monday being down. Its very noticeable in the UK where it usually ramps up again on Tuesdays. But like Ireland, these are days where deaths are notified rather than days people die. It may be that the process of notification is slower at weekends.

    Distribution of laboratory confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the EU/EEA and the UK, as of 21 April 2020 @ 08:00 hrs. CET

    novel-coronavirus-cases-EU-UK-2020-04-21.png?itok=J5WNZjyP

    That 'weekend effect' also seems to be pan European thing in the reporting of cases, as seen in the stuttering slow decline of cases over recent weeks.

    Larger clickable version here :- https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea


  • #1064
    crisco10
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,342 ✭✭✭crisco10


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Ideally we would be smart and encourage the virus to evolve down a certain route. Evolution and natural selection appears to apply to viruses as much as other forms of life.
    The study on the Spanish flu is interesting. In the long run, the milder asymptomatic strain wins out, as the severe strain causes people to stay at home and this strain dies out.

    There is no question the second wave of the Spanish flu was linked to WW1 and the mass movement and stationing of people together. If there are any lessons for covid19 its that mass gatherings like soccer matches, Cheltenham etc, can have lethal effects. This was seen in Spain too with the marches.

    Anyways in summary, lets hope because of lockdowns, a milder strain wins out.

    second peak was also over the northern hemisphere winter months?


  • #1065
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    Ideally we would be smart and encourage the virus to evolve down a certain route. Evolution and natural selection appears to apply to viruses as much as other forms of life.
    The study on the Spanish flu is interesting. In the long run, the milder asymptomatic strain wins out, as the severe strain causes people to stay at home and this strain dies out.

    There is no question the second wave of the Spanish flu was linked to WW1 and the mass movement and stationing of people together. If there are any lessons for covid19 its that mass gatherings like soccer matches, Cheltenham etc, can have lethal effects. This was seen in Spain too with the marches.

    Anyways in summary, lets hope because of lockdowns, a milder strain wins out.

    so do we test for the different strains fast and often and have, more serious restrictions in the geographic areas where the worse ones are? that is if our first line of defense goes ie. to starve it first. while defending the vunerable in the castle.?


  • #1066
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    crisco10 wrote: »
    second peak was also over the northern hemisphere winter months?

    Yes, winter months. Soldiers returning home on troop ships or to Germany by land, bringing it with them.


  • #1067
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,946 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    callaway92 wrote: »
    Would viewing a house be considered essential?

    No. Unless it's the one you are living in!


  • #1068
    Rob A. Bank
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,842 ✭✭✭Rob A. Bank


    Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering

    The video in this letter to the New England Journal of Medicine is well worth a watch. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2007800



    The voiced dental fricative ‘TH’ in ‘healthy’ produces numerous droplets, which are nicely suppressed by wearing a mask.

    Another reason to wear a mask !


  • #1069
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,795 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »
    Everyone knows a heavy smoker or two who lived until some great age. But we all probably know way more people for whom smoking was a big factor in their premature death.

    Not only that, but the "my gran lived til X and was a smoker..." is never the full story.

    My dad was a smoker and lived til 90. But he'd suffered about 8 to 10 strokes due to his smoking and the last 15 or so years of his life weren't worth living.

    Nobody gets away with the health impacts of smoking. It WILL affect you in a negative way. You cannot escape it.

    If you're a smoker, the best thing you can do for yourself is to quit.


  • #1070
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,527 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    speckle wrote: »
    so do we test for the different strains fast and often and have, more serious restrictions in the geographic areas where the worse ones are? that is if our first line of defense goes ie. to starve it first. while defending the vunerable in the castle.?

    yes, that's a good way of putting it.

    Even though its a novel virus, there is no reason to suspect it won't in time act like other viruses, evolving to save itself.

    As for the Spanish flu, again some interesting lessons:
    After the lethal second wave struck in late 1918, new cases dropped abruptly – almost to nothing after the peak in the second wave. In Philadelphia, for example, 4,597 people died in the week ending 16 October, but by 11 November, influenza had almost disappeared from the city. One explanation for the rapid decline in the lethality of the disease is that doctors became more effective in prevention and treatment of the pneumonia that developed after the victims had contracted the virus. However, John Barry stated in his 2004 book The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History that researchers have found no evidence to support this position. Some fatal cases did continue into March 1919, killing one player in the 1919 Stanley Cup Finals.
    Another theory holds that the 1918 virus mutated extremely rapidly to a less lethal strain. This is a common occurrence with influenza viruses: there is a tendency for pathogenic viruses to become less lethal with time, as the hosts of more dangerous strains tend to die out (see also "Deadly Second Wave", above).

    and the Danish experience is interesting in relation to the second wave.
    The fact that most of those who recovered from first-wave infections had become immune showed that it must have been the same strain of flu. This was most dramatically illustrated in Copenhagen, which escaped with a combined mortality rate of just 0.29% (0.02% in the first wave and 0.27% in the second wave) because of exposure to the less-lethal first wave. For the rest of the population, the second wave was far more deadly; the most vulnerable people were those like the soldiers in the trenches – adults who were young and fit.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

    Not sure we can determine different strains in Ireland, but it would be huge progress if we could, and yes if we could lockdown more strictly where its more severe.

    Hopefully covid 19 behaves like earlier virus outbreaks. No chance of a vaccine anytime soon, and even if there was, vaccines can be hit and miss. A better near term chance might be to encourage a milder strain.


  • #1071
    Tony EH
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,795 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Why is it a worry? These are temporary restrictions for everybody To protect our healthcare system and buy us time to figure out how to manage it.

    I think this sort of mindset needs to change. This is a crisis, not a time for over reaction with regards to democracy. The virus doesn’t care about civil rights or political ideals, people really need to stop thinking in this way, we have to adapt and be flexible in thinking about it.

    The lockup’s are less then ideal but they were done to prioritize slowing down the spread, not intentionally to curb people’s freedoms. Picketing is not an essential trip and it’s good that there isn’t a “sure what harm is it doing” approach from our authorities. That sends out a conflicted message and everyone starts making up their own guidelines for what is an essential trip.
    AdamD wrote: »
    This phrasing is utterly infuriating to read

    It may be "infuriating" to read, but it doesn't make what Drumpot said any less correct. This isn't the time for petty politicking and banging an empty drum about so called "democracy".


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  • #1072
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering

    The video in this letter to the New England Journal of Medicine is well worth a watch. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2007800



    The voiced dental fricative ‘TH’ in ‘healthy’ produces numerous droplets, which are nicely suppressed by wearing a mask.

    Another reason to wear a mask !

    I do wonder if earlier reports and suggestions that masks wouldnt protect against the virus were a bit of a stretch of the truth simply to allow healthcare systems be able to get PPE equipment.

    From the start, they probably knew that masks would certainly help if entire populations wore them. But they equally knew that there was just not enough in circulation to cover populations. Technically, those masks dont stop all particles of the virus, that is true, but its also true that it offers some protection to those wearing it and reduces their potential for infecting others.

    So if they had of said from day 1 that everybody should wear a mask, where would our health services be ? Was it a lie for the greater good that has at least helped our healthcare system ? I am guessing we will never know, but its interesting to ponder.

    The lasting issue from this appears to be the credibility hole its left in WHO's advice. It is like the early contradictions of drinking in pubs, going to sporting events (etc) being ok but them equally telling us to keep a certain distance which was never feasible or possible while maintaining these activities. At different times authorities have given different advice for different reasons. Sometimes to correct out of date advice. Sometimes to manipulate behaviors of the population for different strategies. Sometimes just trying out different things that you hope will work, which are a mixture of different targets. Sometimes because they actually didnt know what was the best thing to do.

    But I honestly dont believe for a second that WHO or any other medical authority really believed the mask not helpful statement. If there was billions of masks for everybody, we would all of been wearing them since March.


  • #1073
    callaway92
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,126 ✭✭✭✭callaway92


    DOCARCH wrote: »
    No. Unless it's the one you are living in!

    Cool - Not shocked

    If stopped by a guard think we’d be turned around?

    House being left for us to view - Nobody gon’ be there


  • #1074
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,209 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    New York's deaths and hospitalisations have stabilised with 481 new deaths today. Still a horrible toll but not as bad as last week.

    NYSCHART.png?itok=efqPNSZj

    https://twitter.com/CNNnewsroom/status/1252616440689156103


  • #1075
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    aha found a research paper re mutations and levels of virulity including I think potential live virus in stools. findings line 319ish onwards. thanks f.trackers.org. syncronicity!

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v1

    nice circular phylogentic diagram of strains also but no idea how to paste.


  • #1076
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Turns out that sunlight is looking like prime killer of this virus.

    Would make sense as to why no big flare ups in Africa.


  • #1077
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,209 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    Turns out that sunlight is looking like prime killer of this virus.

    Excellent.

    This is the news the world has been waiting for.

    When will your research paper be published in The Lancet?

    :P


  • #1078
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    tobefrank321 wrote: »
    yes, that's a good way of putting it.

    Even though its a novel virus, there is no reason to suspect it won't in time act like other viruses, evolving to save itself.

    As for the Spanish flu, again some interesting lessons:



    and the Danish experience is interesting in relation to the second wave.



    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

    Not sure we can determine different strains in Ireland, but it would be huge progress if we could, and yes if we could lockdown more strictly where its more severe.

    Hopefully covid 19 behaves like earlier virus outbreaks. No chance of a vaccine anytime soon, and even if there was, vaccines can be hit and miss. A better near term chance might be to encourage a milder strain.
    Irish strains

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/genetics-shed-light-on-origins-of-irish-strains-of-covid-19-1.4221383?mode=amp


    https://nextstrain.org/
    you can search this site for Irish strains information.


  • #1079
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering

    The video in this letter to the New England Journal of Medicine is well worth a watch. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2007800



    The voiced dental fricative ‘TH’ in ‘healthy’ produces numerous droplets, which are nicely suppressed by wearing a mask.

    Another reason to wear a mask !

    I wonder then is there a difference speaking english or as Gaeilge?


  • #1080
    freshpopcorn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,766 ✭✭✭✭freshpopcorn


    93721140_3721975467874350_5239088729288605696_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&_nc_sid=110474&efg=eyJpIjoidCJ9&_nc_ohc=JrmQ1NWVzxYAX8JmBO4&_nc_ht=scontent-dub4-1.xx&_nc_tp=14&oh=9450eec41a21e478c29e3331c13106bd&oe=5EC3EE63


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  • #1081
    Xertz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    The impression I get is that the West in general has largely ignored Asian experience of dealing with SARS.

    The advice on masks was ignored until we reinvented the wheel and learnt by experience.

    It was the same in the early days of the outbreak. You’d European experts saying that it couldn’t happen in Europe. Then when it happened in Europe, you’d American commentators looking down their noses at the extremely well resourced and high tech public health systems in Europe being overwhelmed and claiming it could never happen in America, imagining the technology in hospitals completely different and obviously far superior, when it’s exactly the same or in many cases less available.

    The PPE used initially in the West was also the typical easy going stuff we’ve always used. It took too long to start rolling out serious gear. Part of it was lack of supply chain width and depth and overwhelming demand but part of it also seemed to be just not looking at what happened and was adapted in Asia.

    Seems to be just exceptionalism layered on arrogance to me.


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