Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

joe_99 wrote: »

A lot of countries are not reporting nursing home deaths. These are the same countries many here are championing as doing a great job in comparison to Ireland. Measure us the same as them and we'd be looking great too.

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I didn't give an update on Friday as planned as I thought it was better to wait until the promised clearing of the back log occurred. Thats happened now and we are more-or-less in a real-time reporting state from this point on which is fantastic.

There have been a further 77 deaths and 401 new cases reported for a total of 15,652 cases.



The r value is now starting to drop lower and faster than previous, with a rate of 1.026 for today, and a 7 day rate of 1.057. The 5 day rate of 1.045 is better again too. This shows that we are almost at the peak and have effectively avoided a large scale surge in cases.



The next 2 charts show the current situation and a projection out 14 days. The next 4-5 days will tell a lot in terms of dropping below an r value of 1 and will have a big effect on both of these charts in terms of overall cases and daily reported cases.





Lastly, the county by county breakdown. I'm honestly baffled by Cavan. It has the 2nd highest rate per 10k population after Dublin. I'm sure there is some valid explanation for it but it is strange to see it so high.



Province County Total Cases Rate per 10k 2016 Population Population Density
Leinster Dublin 7,666 57 1,347,359 1,459.20
Ulster Cavan 401 53 76,176 39.3
Leinster Westmeath 369 42 88,770 48.2
Leinster Kildare 817 37 222,504 131
Leinster Louth 437 34 128,884 155.4
Leinster Wicklow 444 31 142,425 70.2
Ulster Monaghan 187 30 61,386 47.3
Leinster Meath 513 26 195,044 83.2
Connacht Mayo 332 25 130,507 23.3
Leinster Offaly 190 24 77,961 38.9
Ulster Donegal 383 24 159,192 32.6
Leinster Longford 91 22 40,873 37.4
Leinster Kilkenny 206 21 99,232 47.8
Munster Limerick 401 21 194,899 70.8
Leinster Laois 170 20 84,697 49.3
Munster Cork 1047 19 542,868 72.3
Munster Tipperary 300 19 159,553 37.2
Munster Kerry 268 18 147,707 30.7
Connacht Leitrim 49 15 32,044 20.1
Connacht Roscommon 91 14 64,544 25.3
Leinster Carlow 78 14 56,932 63.4
Munster Clare 160 13 118,817 34.4
Connacht Sligo 78 12 65,535 35.5
Connacht Galway 294 11 258,058 42
Munster Waterford 113 10 116,176 62.7
Leinster Wexford 100 7 149,722 63.2


In summary, it looks like we are finally turning a corner on this but its still not clear at what speed we will get around that corner. My hope is that we would start to see the r value drop below 1 by next weekend but as I mentioned earlier, the next few days will tell a lot given that it'll be the first time we'll be see the case number in almost real-time.

Whatever happens, don't expect the lockdown to be lifted any time soon. To put things into context;

• Ireland identified its first case on Feb 29
• Passed 10 cases on 05-Mar, 5 days later.
• Took another 3 days for the next 10.
• Schools, colleges and childcare facilities instructed to close on 12-Mar
• 27 new cases reported on that day
• Passed 100 cases on 14-Mar, 9 days later.
• Took 2 days for the next 100.
• Passed 1,000 cases on 23-Mar, 9 days later.
• Took another 4 days to break the next 1,000 mark
• Stay at home instruction to the population on 27-Mar
• 302 cases reported that day
• Passed 10,000 cases on 13-Apr, 21 days later.
• Likely to break the next 10,000 before Sunday

While we may start to see the daily case numbers dropping, it'll be a while before they get low enough to be at a safe level.

Finally, the modelling data presented on 16-Apr suggests that there are modifications required to the released data but updated data has not been released outside of this presentation. If it gets released, I'll update everything accordingly.

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

So looking at that graph, whatever case may be made for an easing of the restrictions in many parts of the country after 5th May, I think Dublin and surrounding counties will have to remain with current restrictions in place for at least another few weeks after that date. Even taking into account the population difference the contrast in reported deaths between the East and the rest of the country is literally off the scale.

Michael Dwyer wrote: »

I wouldn't mind 'teaching' you a few home truths in real life.

The trends aren't. One day of lower cases doesn't make a trend. Deaths have averaged around 40 a day for the last 10 days.

You have no trends, you have no heart, you have nothing. One thing you have is the luck I'm not facing you at this moment in time.

easypazz wrote: »

You are such a hard man of the internet.

Fact is the key trends are getting better. No amount of threatening people will change that.