Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

iamwhoiam · 16-04-2020 07:34PM

bettyoleary wrote: »

The hospitals would be over run if all the infected sick patients who needed advanced care from nursing homes were in hospital. And, they should be . They deserve a chance too. They are not all seriously ill with underlying conditions. They have a right at a chance the same as any of us.

Many people in care homes have signed a form that they do not wish heroic intervention . Some were transferred and some were not , that has always been the way long before Covid reared his head
The staff in care homes are trained to look after and care for their patients and it is not always appropriate or in the patients interest to transfer them to a strange and frightening medical facility
My mother died in care home just before this virus arrived , she was definitely better off in her comfortable bed with the carers and nurses who knew her and eased her path .

polesheep · 16-04-2020 07:34PM

bettyoleary wrote: »

The hospitals would be over run if all the infected sick patients who needed advanced care from nursing homes were in hospital. And, they should be . They deserve a chance too. They are not all seriously ill with underlying conditions. They have a right at a chance the same as any of us.

They are getting that chance. The nursing home near me had seven cases. Five went to hospital. I am delighted to say that all seven recovered.

weisses · 16-04-2020 07:35PM

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

The general running order on boards for the numbers briefing:

-What time is the briefing today?
-It should be the same time everyday
-They have more important things to do

[numbers announced]
-x number of cases
-What time is the briefing today?
-x number of cases
-x number of cases
-x number of cases
-Curve is flattening
-No sign of a flattening of the curve
-Do you even understand what flattening of the curve means
-x number of cases
-RIP to all those who died
-We're looking good guys
-Looking good? People have died. How is that looking good
-RIP to all those who died
-This is a shambles
-I actually think the goverment are doing a great job
-Glad I'm not in the States
-Glad/annoyed Sinn Fein aren't in government
-What time is the briefing?

Plus there is a smart arse almost every day summing it up

Mic 1972 · 16-04-2020 07:35PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

It's not like for like. We are doing more community testing by far. Look it up.

Your comparisons are seriously flawed.

can you share the source to this?
Italy tested almost 1.2 million people, do you think they have 1.2 million people in hospital at the moment?

polesheep · 16-04-2020 07:36PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

But staff still have to go in and if the virus is widespread in the community some will inevitably be positive but asymptomatic and infect patients. Maybe there are ways of organising the homes to minimise the amount of damage one such case can do but I don't see how you can eliminate them entirely until more advanced tests are developed.

Simply providing PPE would have saved many lives.

Jim_Hodge · 16-04-2020 07:37PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the death rate is not related to the number of tests
also, Italy is testing in the community too. They tested almost 1.2 million people so far, they are not all in hospital

FFS! Almost 1.1 million of them were negative. You're determined to compared apples and oranges.

ninebeanrows · 16-04-2020 07:38PM

We are doing really well. Testing has really improved and we are in control of this now.

Terrible loss and tragedy will continue but we have reached peak pandemic and will see great improvements over the next weeks. Death toll due to lag may unfortunately continue to rise due to lag effect, but I think by 5 May we will be certainly be seeing cases decrease day to day and our death rate decreases...

Lets keep up the good work and also keep sane.

And pray for the dead and sick.

joe_99 · 16-04-2020 07:39PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

the death rate is not related to the number of tests
also, Italy is testing in the community too. They tested almost 1.2 million people so far, they are not all in hospital

You used a tests per million of population figure. We are also testing in hospitals but at a lower rate than Italy so comparisons are skewed.

Hence stark difference in deaths per million

ninebeanrows · 16-04-2020 07:40PM

On 5 May most shops will reopen with strict distancing, coffee shops and restaurants that can will too.

There'll be no school this year and no mass work...but we will get to a sense of normality by mid summer.

Bobtheman · 16-04-2020 07:40PM

So what will happen on May 5th ??

Kermit.de.frog · 16-04-2020 07:41PM

Bobtheman wrote: »

So what will happen on May 5th ??

Judgement Day.

Bobtheman · 16-04-2020 07:42PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

On 5 May most shops will reopen with strict distancing, coffee shops and restaurants that can will too.

There'll be no school this year and no mass work...but we will get to a sense of normality by mid summer.

Is this just off the top of your head or what are you basing this on ?

Vivienne23 · 16-04-2020 07:44PM

The game changer would be a test yourself at home kit like a pregnancy test , like literally swab if you have it goes red if you don’t it goes green ,

If all stays the course looks like we will be lifting restrictions in May week after week , i for one will not be going to a pub but I would chance a restaurant with social distancing implemented , looking forward to it !

woohoo!!! · 16-04-2020 07:46PM

crossman47 wrote: »

That may be possible now but remember at the start we feared the hospitals would be overrun

That was my big fear and I posted about here. Delighted to be proved wrong but using the Merkel precautionary principle, need to keep the good measures up and improving on where there are faults.

An Ciarraioch · 16-04-2020 07:46PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

can you share the source to this?
Italy tested almost 1.2 million people, do you think they have 1.2 million people in hospital at the moment?

Their death rate per million is 3.5 times ours, even though the case per million stats are virtually identical.

Mic 1972 · 16-04-2020 07:47PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

FFS! Almost 1.1 million of them were negative. You're determined to compared apples and oranges.

I'm comparing apples with apples, you dont understand stats

thegreengoblin · 16-04-2020 07:48PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

On 5 May most shops will reopen with strict distancing, coffee shops and restaurants that can will too.

There'll be no school this year and no mass work...but we will get to a sense of normality by mid summer.

What do you base that assessment on?

Mic 1972 · 16-04-2020 07:48PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Their death rate per million is 3.5 times ours, even though the case per million stats are virtually identical.

yes that's correct, we are doing much better in terms of deaths
Where we are similar is with the number of infected people per million

Bobtheman · 16-04-2020 07:49PM

Vivienne23 wrote: »

The game changer would be a test yourself at home kit like a pregnancy test , like literally swab if you have it goes red if you don’t it goes green ,

If all stays the course looks like we will be lifting restrictions in May week after week , i for one will not be going to a pub but I would chance a restaurant with social distancing implemented , looking forward to it !

I don't share your confidence

bettyoleary · 16-04-2020 07:49PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Many people in care homes have signed a form that they do not wish heroic intervention . Some were transferred and some were not , that has always been the way long before Covid reared his head
The staff in care homes are trained to look after and care for their patients and it is not always appropriate or in the patients interest to transfer them to a strange and frightening medical facility
My mother died in care home just before this virus arrived , she was definitely better off in her comfortable bed with the carers and nurses who knew her and eased her path .

I totally agree with that but each case is individual and I don't believe that these people are getting a fair chance. There are some people in homes that go undiagnosed, as a result they are not given the chance. Testing has been nil. Trump is 70's with underlying conditions were would he be if he was in a nursing home??

Mic 1972 · 16-04-2020 07:51PM

joe_99 wrote: »

You used a tests per million of population figure. We are also testing in hospitals but at a lower rate than Italy so comparisons are skewed.

Hence stark difference in deaths per million

deaths per million = (deaths / total population)*1,000,000
not related to the number of tests

Coyote · 16-04-2020 07:52PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

How do you know if Italy started with 1 case?
At the time when Italy had the outbreak nobody was doing testing in Europe. Every country had a bunch of contained cases (Italy had 3), then Italy started to count dozens of new cases. Nobody knows how many had been there all along
Anyway, I'm not interested in how we got to this point. I'm interested in where we are now. At the moment we are just 1 spot behind Italy in terms of total cases per million and the figure is a good comparison because we are similar to Italy with the number of tests per million. it's a like of like comparison

Hi Mic 1972
I would love to believe that your number are right, but I would have to believe that Irish people are 4-5 times less lightly to die from Covid19 than people from Italy.
are Irish people 5 time less lightly to die than Belgium people?
the death rate has been worked out at 1-1.5% from country's with high testing like SK.
if Italy has 22,170 deaths it should have around 1.5-2.2million cases per 1 death per 100 people
I would love to think that Irish people just stronger or have a 5x better health system that no one else has but the number do not show that.
are we 5 times better at not die from this than the Belgium people?

Regards

Coyote

woohoo!!! · 16-04-2020 07:53PM

Vivienne23 wrote: »

The game changer would be a test yourself at home kit like a pregnancy test , like literally swab if you have it goes red if you don’t it goes green ,

If all stays the course looks like we will be lifting restrictions in May week after week , i for one will not be going to a pub but I would chance a restaurant with social distancing implemented , looking forward to it !

The longer the lock down the more likely a combo of both may be needed

Ace2007 · 16-04-2020 07:54PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

We are doing really well. Testing has really improved and we are in control of this now.

Terrible loss and tragedy will continue but we have reached peak pandemic and will see great improvements over the next weeks. Death toll due to lag may unfortunately continue to rise due to lag effect, but I think by 5 May we will be certainly be seeing cases decrease day to day and our death rate decreases...

Lets keep up the good work and also keep sane.

And pray for the dead and sick.

I thought we hit the peak last week?

bettyoleary · 16-04-2020 07:55PM

bettyoleary wrote: »

I totally agree with that but each case is individual and I don't believe that these people are getting a fair chance. There are some people in homes that go undiagnosed, as a result they are not given the chance. Testing has been nil. Trump is 70's with underlying conditions were would he be if he was in a nursing home??

There are hundreds of elderly people at home in their own homes being cared for by family or have a carer. There are many living at home alone or with hus, wife. They are cocooning because they want to live. They have paid their taxes been valuable members of society are a massive support to there families and have years of wisdom. Just bcos they are in a nursing home why are they left. They found 7 elderly people dead in NY over weekend in a care home flung into a mortuary. Its outrageous.

Kermit.de.frog · 16-04-2020 07:55PM

The lunatic in Brazil has fired his health minister

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/bolsonaro-brazil-president-luiz-mandetta-health-minister

foxyladyxx · 16-04-2020 07:56PM

bettyoleary wrote: »

I totally agree with that but each case is individual and I don't believe that these people are getting a fair chance. There are some people in homes that go undiagnosed, as a result they are not given the chance. Testing has been nil. Trump is 70's with underlying conditions were would he be if he was in a nursing home??

At the press conference today . .one of the ''experts'' said that many of the deceased covid 19 patients in care homes had displayed no symptoms.

Jim_Hodge · 16-04-2020 07:57PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

yes that's correct, we are doing much better in terms of deaths
Where we are similar is with the number of infected people per million

You just don't get it do you? Their case count is many multiples of the positive tests. This applies to most countries, but the testing in Italy for many weeks was not as comprehensive as ours by any means.

You're determined to continue with the spurious comparison for some strange reason, so off you go, but it's not correct.

Ace2007 · 16-04-2020 07:57PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

death rate = deaths / total population
not related to the number of tests

Are you being serious?

Mortality rates - deaths (tested positive)/Total population tested

MrMusician18 · 16-04-2020 07:57PM

daheff wrote: »

So riddle me this...how come we have so many new cases each day still??we've been doing social distancing and wfh for the last 5 weeks or so.

While the daily % increase is not crazy high....the daily numbers are still rising.

Anybody care to explain?

Also anybody know how many of the new cases are in nursing homes vs rest of society?

Of the 750 odd confirmed cases, those which have a known source accounted for 49% which would include
health workers, nursing homes and family/household transmission. 51% therefore were community transmission.

As you rightly point out, after 5 weeks in lockdown, each and every single one of those people caught it while they were meant to be observing good hygiene rules to prevent the spread of disease. But apparently we cannot blame "the people", it's the HSE, government or some other bogey man that's always at fault. Society was never good at acknowledging it's own failures.

I predicted an acceleration in spread as a result of non-observation around Easter and the good weather and look what's happened.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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