Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Kermit.de.frog · 16-04-2020 01:16PM

18 new fatalities recorded in NI.

DevilsHaircut · 16-04-2020 01:17PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

They can say suspected. Did you miss the point about the CMO saying doctors are diagnosing deaths as related to covid 19 before test results? Of course you did.

The testing is a shambles, missing out on at least half of positive cases. They said so themselves.

In short, the official numbers are a complete sham - if you don't see that, then likewise I haven't much to say to you.

The official numbers can't be anything other than lab-confirmed positives.

The HSPC is also keeping track of 'possible' and 'probable' cases for clinical management purposes.

Testing will never find all cases as many are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.

Testing criteria have also changed so that the testing is directed where it will be most useful and will change again to broaden the symptom list as our testing capacity has increased.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casedefinitions/

Metroid diorteM · 16-04-2020 01:17PM

So it was the biolab. Finger of blame needs to point straight there.

Playing with fire.

Metroid diorteM · 16-04-2020 01:17PM

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources

Hrududu · 16-04-2020 01:18PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I have five siblings ranging in age from mid thirties to fifty, all are married or with a partner. In total that's 12 adults and then our parents. From talking to my in-laws about their families theyveay everything is good do now we are talking about 37 adults in total and none of them have any issues. Then there's my friends and that numbers quite high and they are all doing well.
Basically I'm not aware of anybody struggling over this lockdown so I call bs on that guy.
I'm sure there are people suffering but it's miniscule and nothing neat the numbers he suggests.

Everyone I know is fine. This means everyone is fine. Anybody saying otherwise is lying.

tobefrank321 · 16-04-2020 01:19PM

Amirani wrote: »

She wants Tony to guess the number of cases instead of just telling us the ones confirmed with a positive test. I think this is a bad idea.

Maybe write him a letter and he'll change his approach?

Nope, but Tony should caveat daily numbers by saying these are not accurate numbers, they don't reflect the real total out there, they aren't a reflection of where we really are at, and the likely number of cases is far higher.

That's important so that people don't decide to ignore restrictions, or that we think we have this under control.

In summary, the real number of cases are far worse than is being reported - exactly what "Mary" said. So there is no reason to doubt her.

16-04-2020 01:20PM

Metroid diorteM wrote: »

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/coronavirus-wuhan-lab-china-compete-us-sources

Fox news

Really???

amadangomor · 16-04-2020 01:20PM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

�� Here are the official Coronavirus guidelines.?

You really aren't taking this well.

I'd say go and retreat into whatever imaginary perfect world that you think there should be.

The rest of of will live in reality and realise while not perfect, a lot of people are doing their best to save lives in an unprecedented situation.

laurah591 · 16-04-2020 01:22PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I think everyone should remember that every new case you hear from now is because two people did not observe the rules of lockdown, social distancing, hand hygiene and cough etiquette.

Or your working in a care setting or any front line setting and bring it home to the family

An Ciarraioch · 16-04-2020 01:23PM

UK total will be over 860 today - 740 in England, 80 in Scotland, 18 in NI and about 30 in Wales (stats for there more approximate today).

Amirani · 16-04-2020 01:24PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nope, but Tony should caveat daily numbers by saying these are not accurate numbers, they don't reflect the real total out there, they aren't a reflection of where we really are at, and the likely number of cases is far higher.

That's important so that people don't decide to ignore restrictions, or that we think we have this under control.

In summary, the real number of cases are far worse than is being reported - exactly what "Mary" said. So there is no reason to doubt her.

They've said that countless times. If they've stopped saying it, it's because it's incredibly obvious. They've never said that the reported number of cases equals the total number of cases.

You really think they're claiming to report the total number of infections?

:D:D

Metroid diorteM · 16-04-2020 01:24PM

AdamD wrote: »

Fox news

Really???

Let me guess. You get your news from Twitter?

Curious_Case · 16-04-2020 01:25PM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'm going to share a theory reluctantly, as it doesn't bode well for Ireland unless we keep hammering home and following social distancing;

I think how social a country's people will play a factor in all of this. Italians all hug each other, the Spanish are big into lots of big family gatherings and are very social.

And the Irish? Well, do I even need to say how social we are?

Now compare that to countries that are socially cold and that have - last I checked - done ok with this; Germany and Japan

So I think 7 factors will come into play when all is said and done in the stats and the Maths of this:
How densely populated a city or country is (I'm a stressed Dubliner)

How fast a country's government locked down and how much they've implemented it (I still think Ireland is in "lockdown" and further measures (like in Dubai) are needed)

How social a country's people are

How modern and capable a country's heath infrastructure is (I don't know how Africa isn't absolutely riddled with this yet. I believe mass amounts of deaths are simply been put down to "just another day in Africa")

How a country is testing and how many they are testing

How a country is recording and not recording Covid fatalities. Some are counting Nursing Home fatalities, some aren't. Some are recording Covid as the reason for death when - for example - a patient was absolutely banjaxed with pnuemonia or similar before they got Covid. In some cases I feel Covid only attributed to 10% of their passing. But the certificate will still say "Covid". So there's under reporting and over reporting all over the world

The age demographics of a country. Many have said that Italy having so many over 70s played a big part to their huge numbers

Very good analysis

How about adding "level of remoteness" and "no. of land borders" ?

Ireland is small and lightly populated on one hand but we don't benefit fully from being an island as no. of land borders = 1

Significantly, we are far from remote as we are in close proximity to the UK mainland and Europe

tobefrank321 · 16-04-2020 01:26PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

The official numbers can't be anything other than lab-confirmed positives.

The HSPC is also keeping track of 'possible' and 'probable' cases for clinical management purposes.

Testing will never find all cases as many are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms.

Testing criteria have also changed so that the testing is directed where it will be most useful and will change again to broaden the symptom list as our testing capacity has increased.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casedefinitions/

Not my words, Nolans - "For every 5 cases we find, there is at least another 5 cases we don't".

Do you understand the impact of that in terms of contact tracing alone? Asymptomatic spreaders, spreading it through the community. Not to mention the long waiting times for symptomatic people to get tested.

Which means there is substantial official underreporting of cases.

Which in turn means "Mary" was right. You accept when someone says the official daily figures of new cases are a huge understatement, they are speaking the truth?

That's why its important to put a massive Asterix beside new daily case numbers. They are basically nonsense and not to be believed as an accurate picture of where we are.

16-04-2020 01:27PM

colmtheperson wrote: »

Just thinking, if it took 3 weeks for Mary Lou McDonald to get her results then I assume the daily updates we get are from up to 3 weeks ago? Ie the start of the lockdown?

Its variable, and we are approaching the end of the backlog. People for lower risk groups are likely to have been waiting up to 3 weeks, but patients or in hospital or at higher risk are prioritised. Would like to see the data by test date. My instinct, based on rate of increase to ICU, tells me we probably passed peak cases in the last 5 to 7 days, and our death figures will lag this by 10-14 days

Rvsmmnps · 16-04-2020 01:27PM

amadangomor wrote: »

You really aren't taking this well.

I'd say go and retreat into whatever imaginary perfect world that you think there should be.

The rest of of will live in reality and realise while not perfect, a lot of people are doing their best to save lives in an unprecedented situation.

I'm more worried about how civil governments are going to control barbaric behavior.How naive and distracted many people are

wakka12 · 16-04-2020 01:28PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

UK total will be over 860 today - 740 in England, 80 in Scotland, 18 in NI and about 30 in Wales (stats for there more approximate today).

Those numbers are massive for Scotland, Wales, NI considering the size of each of them

tobefrank321 · 16-04-2020 01:28PM

Amirani wrote: »

They've said that countless times. If they've stopped saying it, it's because it's incredibly obvious. They've never said that the reported number of cases equals the total number of cases.

You really think they're claiming to report the total number of infections? :D:D

So you admit Mary was right? The real number of cases is far higher than is reported.

If you had simply said that at the start, it would have saved everyone a lot of time and effort.

Amirani · 16-04-2020 01:28PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Which in turn means "Mary" was right. You accept when someone says the official daily figures of new cases are a huge understatement, they are speaking the truth?

That's why its important to put a massive Asterix beside new daily case numbers.

They're not the "new daily case numbers".

They're the "new confirmed cases" from labs. It's in every press briefing.

16-04-2020 01:28PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I think everyone should remember that every new case you hear from now is because two people did not observe the rules of lockdown, social distancing, hand hygiene and cough etiquette.

No its not. Hospitals, care homes and peoples own homes probably account for the vast majority of new cases

16-04-2020 01:32PM

auspicious wrote: »

Does anyone have the latest HSE coronavirus cases map, or a link to, which doesn't blur when zoomed in?

want to see if your neighbour has it?

DevilsHaircut · 16-04-2020 01:34PM

Amirani wrote: »

They're not the "new daily case numbers".

They're the "new confirmed cases" from labs. It's in every press briefing.

Paul Cullen has been missing the point too: 'from this it is clear our official figures are based entirely on laboratory-tested cases.' As opposed to what?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nursing-homes-and-coronavirus-why-the-numbers-don-t-add-up-1.4229722

tobefrank321 · 16-04-2020 01:34PM

Amirani wrote: »

They're not the "new daily case numbers".

They're the "new confirmed cases" from labs. It's in every press briefing.

Nice word play.

Fine - you accept that new confirmed cases are a huge understatement of reality?

A simple yes or no will do.

Curious_Case · 16-04-2020 01:34PM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

I'm more worried about how civil governments are going to control barbaric behavior.How naive and distracted many people are

Why become barbaric?

We're being paid money to get a really good range of food in the shops

We've got electricity & water

We're actually beginning to realise that our lives, at worst, are much better than the lives of many impoverished groups, refugees, etc.

16-04-2020 01:35PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

870 new deaths recorded in the UK. (total 13,828)

So increase by 75% to get an estimate of total deaths, including care homes -

1522 (and 24,199 cumulative).

caveat emptor · 16-04-2020 01:44PM

I'd really hate to work in these labs. :eek:

Experts know the new coronavirus is not a bioweapon. They disagree on whether it could have leaked from a research lab

Seems these bat coronaviruses were routinely studied at Biosafety Level 2 labs.

https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/experts-know-the-new-coronavirus-is-not-a-bioweapon-they-disagree-on-whether-it-could-have-leaked-from-a-research-lab/

growleaves · 16-04-2020 01:44PM

No its not. Hospitals, care homes and peoples own homes probably account for the vast majority of new cases

Yeah but scapegoating people is fun. So there.

bekker · 16-04-2020 01:44PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Paul Cullen has been missing the point too: 'from this it is clear our official figures are based entirely on laboratory-tested cases.' As opposed to what?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nursing-homes-and-coronavirus-why-the-numbers-don-t-add-up-1.4229722

Please quote in context, not selectively in an attempt to prove a point.

'But what about suspected cases? People who had not been tested before they died?

According to HSE chief clinical officer Dr Colm Henry, the doctor filling out a death cert “will give his or her best opinion of the cause of death in the context of a new illness which is lab-confirmed”.

From this it is clear our official figures are based entirely on laboratory-tested cases. Eventually, when death certs are filed within the required three-month period, further cases will be logged that add to the figures.

The Coroners Service has instructed doctors to swab test deceased patients with respiratory failure or “circumstantial suspicion” for Covid-19, but this has not been happening all the time, internal correspondence appears to show.'

Dr. Myra Cullinane, the Dublin Coroner is already complaining of incorrect death certificates. cf IT today.

Amirani · 16-04-2020 01:47PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Nice word play.

Fine - you accept that new confirmed cases are a huge understatement of reality?

A simple yes or no will do.

Yes.

It's still the right number to report though. Without more widespread testing, it's pointless trying to guess the total number.

tobefrank321 · 16-04-2020 01:48PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Paul Cullen has been missing the point too: 'from this it is clear our official figures are based entirely on laboratory-tested cases.' As opposed to what?

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/nursing-homes-and-coronavirus-why-the-numbers-don-t-add-up-1.4229722

We simply don't know how many cases we have. No country does.

"Testing" put simply is literally a case of putting your finger in the air to determine if numbers are rising or falling. Its no better than an estimate.

Confirmed cases are a fraction of the real number of cases, even Nolan and Holahan have said that.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Comments