Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

MrMusician18 · 15-04-2020 07:43PM

smelly sock wrote: »

Why? We know that this was projected as the peak. Relax. It was expected.

In another 3 weeks this will have come down.

I have been out and about too as have most of the people i know. Its about social distancing etc.

The vast majority of the 1000 caught covid in the last 5 days. That means that are not enough people taking the measures seriously.

This is not surprising to me anyway. I live across the road from a park and any day the sun has been out it's been really busy.

tobefrank321 · 15-04-2020 07:44PM

smelly sock wrote: »

New i was missing a 0. Haha.

Ffs time to let it run its course.

Let you be the first to get infected, off you go, mild flu that it allegedly is.

Van.Bosch · 15-04-2020 07:45PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The vast majority of the 1000 caught covid in the last 5 days. That means that are not enough pale taking the measures seriously.

This is not surprising to me anyway. I live across the road from a park and any day the sun has been out it's been really busy.

What’s the problem going to a park if people adhere to social distancing?

How do you know the vast majority caught it in last 5 days?

Nonoperational · 15-04-2020 07:45PM

Wibbs wrote: »

A rellie who's a doctor once described similar around CPR in many patients that it was "like trying to push start a car with no petrol in the tank".

It's a very unpleasant act. But saying that there are always the success stories. In my experience it's most the shockable arrests that survive but I have been involved in a few cases of prolonged chest compressions that made it. Would have been younger patients for the vast majority.

15-04-2020 07:45PM

Padraig Mor wrote: »

Maybe because they get priority testing?

The Traveller community do get priority as a high risk group but testing isn't a cure. If you're positive but not seriously ill you're told to self isolate at home. Good luck with that Boss.

Tony EH · 15-04-2020 07:46PM

growleaves wrote: »

Er no it isn't stupid at all because the alleged mitigating effects of the lockdown are unproven and unknown. Backed by no scientific evidence at all, only mere assertion.

What you're asking me to accept is that comparing a flu-like pandemic which kills 60,000 to a flu pandemic which kills 68,000 (a harsh flu year) is extremely stupid. But comparing a flu-like pandemic which kills 60,000 to one of the deadliest pandemics in history which which killed 50 million (Spanish Flu) is sound.

For the lockdown to be as effective as these projections point to there would need to be a huge discrepancy in deaths between countries that are locked-down and those countries that aren't.

If/When that discrepancy does not appear (as it hasn't so far), what will the posters here say?

They'll breathe a sigh of relief and say they were wrong...thankfully.

But, it's good to know that that's where your priority lies.

Nonoperational · 15-04-2020 07:47PM

Wibbs wrote: »

A rellie who's a doctor once described similar around CPR in many patients that it was "like trying to push start a car with no petrol in the tank".

It's a very unpleasant act. But saying that there are always the success stories. In my experience it's mostly the shockable arrests that survive but I have been involved in a few cases of prolonged chest compressions that made it. Would have been younger patients for the vast majority.

I don't want to give the impassion I'm anti resuscitation which I am not at all, it's amazing when it is successful.

Wibbs · 15-04-2020 07:48PM

Gynoid wrote: »

Well apparently everyone sick who people see in the papers look fat. Anyways.. Funny thing is people say oh 70 or whatever % of people in hospital with this are overweight so it must mean you are more at risk if overweight. But I think when I see those percentages that MAYBE they are pro rata reflections of the general population which is about 70 or whatever % overweight.

Actually earlier someone more informed on the matter noted that to me. That the spread of Covid deaths follows the curve of BMI in the wider UK community. TBH I was surprised nay shocked how many are overweight or obese in the UK(2/3rds apparently) and we're about on par I gather?

I'm cogging the graphic she used to illustrate it.

I have noticed in those dying in the NHS a lot of non White faces. Now the NHS would have more than background levels of non White folks working in it, but it has surprised me. I can understand somewhere like New York or New Orleans where social factors would be majorly at play, but in the UK these are mostly "middle class" professionals.

MrMusician18 · 15-04-2020 07:50PM

Van.Bosch wrote: »

What’s the problem going to a park if people adhere to social distancing?

How do you know the vast majority caught it in last 5 days?

5 days is the mean incubation period, but let's say 7 days to account for delays in testing. So they have certainly contracted it within the lockdown period

No problem going to the park adhering to social distancing, but it's not happening. I've seen volleyball practice, gangs of teens, parents letting their nieces and nephews mix.

It only takes a small percentage to not adhere to the measures to effectively destroy everyone's efforts.

Rvsmmnps · 15-04-2020 07:50PM

Is there a breakdown of age groups that have passed away from covid19 in Ireland 20-30 / 30-40 / 40-50 / 50-60 / 70-80

Van.Bosch · 15-04-2020 07:52PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

5 days is the mean incubation period, but let's say 7 days to account for delays in testing. So they have certainly contracted it within the lockdown period

No problem going to the park adhering to social distancing, but it's not happening. I've seen volleyball practice, gangs of teens, parents letting their nieces and nephews mix.

It only takes a small percentage to not adhere to the measures to effectively destroy everyone's efforts.

Agreed - majority making the tough choices and isolating their family.

Families who mix are risking themselves as well as the health service - frustrating.

BattleCorp · 15-04-2020 07:52PM

smelly sock wrote: »

New i was missing a 0. Haha.

Ffs time to let it run its course.

Eh, no it's not.

wakka12 · 15-04-2020 07:53PM

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/iranian-govt-report-says-coronavirus-death-toll-80-percent-higher-than-previously-acknowledged/
It is likely that only 1 in 5 deaths in Iran are being reported, infections also likely ten times higher than reported

Would put Iran at around 800,000 infections and 25,000 deaths, considering the comparable death toll of larger European countries it would make sense.

BattleCorp · 15-04-2020 07:54PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Let you be the first to get infected, off you go, mild flu that it allegedly is.

And then go to your Nan's, your Mam and Dads, and your Aunties and Uncles and do the same for your friends Nan, Mam and Dad, Aunts and Uncles etc. etc. You'll be popular.

Iamabeliever · 15-04-2020 07:55PM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Is there a breakdown of age groups that have passed away from covid19 in Ireland 20-30 / 30-40 / 40-50 / 50-60 / 70-80

It's skewed towards the 70-80 age group

joeysoap · 15-04-2020 07:56PM

growleaves wrote: »

The countries which refused to lock down are not being wipedout.

They don’t have an Irish mentality though.(when was last time a jogger left 2 m?)
They don’t have a neighbouring country that is going it’s own way. (Cheltenham, reluctant lockdown, their own accounting system with weird way of counting covid19 cases. And open borders with another jurisdiction to deal with?

limnam · 15-04-2020 07:57PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

It only takes a small percentage to not adhere to the measures to effectively destroy everyone's efforts.

I think it was on a video DeVore had posted where the simulations showed 10% not adhering to lock down was very close to not having lock down at all.

Frightening.

Wibbs · 15-04-2020 07:59PM

Nonoperational wrote: »

It's a very unpleasant act. But saying that there are always the success stories. In my experience it's mostly the shockable arrests that survive but I have been involved in a few cases of prolonged chest compressions that made it. Would have been younger patients for the vast majority.

I don't want to give the impassion I'm anti resuscitation which I am not at all, it's amazing when it is successful.

It's also a good skill to learn for "civilians". Many moons ago I kept a guy going long enough for the ambulance guys to get to him and shock him and do their thing. Guy in his sixties. Just went down like a sack of spuds, like he'd been poleaxed. In a heap in the street.

I panicked tbh, but nobody else was doing anything. I tried to get him into that recovery position, but found it really hard. Like moving a very heavy cat. So when I found he had no pulse, no breathing and no colour in him at all I did the CPR thing, or what I figured was. Well someone was looking out for him and me, because when the Ambulance arrived after which felt like an age, but probably wasn't he was still with us and I distinctly remember some colour starting to come back into him. I was bloody knackered from doing it. Head spinning. Found out later as he was a local chap he survived and got back home. When one of the ambulance guys asked me had I learned it from a course, I said no Baywatch. I wasn't even kidding. That and some half remembered stuff from the Boy Scouts.

I know a chap who did a course in first aid and he's saved a fair few people over the years with the training he got.

MrMusician18 · 15-04-2020 08:01PM

limnam wrote: »

I think it was on a video DeVore had posted where the simulations showed 10% not adhering to lock down was very close to not having lock down at all.

Frightening.

I posted that simulation as well.. That's why these lockdowns are next to hopeless. There are far too many selfish and stupid for them to be a success.

Mic 1972 · 15-04-2020 08:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If everyone in Dublin went out for their alloxated 2km excerise at the same time the streets would be packed.
It's obviously a different scenario than a village in County Clare. Making more specific restrictions on those living in large cities makes logical sense.

It' also people not keeping the distance, i see that a lot

ElTel · 15-04-2020 08:05PM

deaglan1 wrote: »

Still cannot get my head around these stats - what are the Israelis doing that Deaths per 1 Million population = just 16% of ours.

Yeah the difference is scary and disappointing. Assuming we closely match up in terms of medical prowess and equipment and that the different Covid 19 strains don't dramatically affect this number, then it's down to...

1. Peoples' general health is better in Israel and/or they have more trust in their health care system and thus seek medical help earlier.

2. Treatments/Protocols are more effective.
eg. It's been suggested that a scan of the lungs early could be a big deciding facor for a doctor on how to proceed.

fritzelly · 15-04-2020 08:06PM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Is there a breakdown of age groups that have passed away from covid19 in Ireland 20-30 / 30-40 / 40-50 / 50-60 / 70-80

wakka12 · 15-04-2020 08:07PM

ElTel wrote: »

Yeah the difference is scary and disappointing. Assuming we closely match up in terms of medical prowess and equipment and that the different Covid 19 strains don't dramatically affect this number, then it's down to...

1. Peoples' general health is better in Israel and/or they have more trust in their health care system and thus seek medical help earlier.

2. Treatments/Protocols are more effective.
eg. It's been suggested that a scan of the lungs early could be a big deciding facor for a doctor on how to proceed.

Or could easily be Israel only counting hospital deaths, and is probably the most likely reason

Mic 1972 · 15-04-2020 08:08PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The vast majority of the 1000 caught covid in the last 5 days. That means that are not enough people taking the measures seriously.

This is not surprising to me anyway. I live across the road from a park and any day the sun has been out it's been really busy.

Yep, the same where a live. I also seen videos of people going around Dublin like nothing happened. The daily new cases have doubled in just 1 week when the restrictions were already in place

fr336 · 15-04-2020 08:08PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

I posted that simulation as well.. That's why these lockdowns are next to hopeless. There are far too many selfish and stupid for them to be a success.

And yet every country seems to say that the reproduction number has come down substantially since lockdowns were put in place.

eagle eye · 15-04-2020 08:09PM

growleaves wrote:

The efficacy of the lockdown is unproven and unknown. It has no scientific basis. The death tolls from states that didn't lock down is not significantly different from those that did, sometimes its much lower.

There's a multitude of reasons why a lockdown wouldn't work and it's basically about it not being a proper lockdown, not policed properly or the people not following the rules.
If you do a proper lockdown it will work. Ireland haven't done a proper lockdown, it hasn't been policed very well and many have broken the rules.
Taiwan did a proper lockdown and it did work.

Charles Babbage · 15-04-2020 08:09PM

Half of the lockdown measures contribute little, the trick is in knowing which half.

silverharp · 15-04-2020 08:09PM

ElTel wrote: »

Yeah the difference is scary and disappointing. Assuming we closely match up in terms of medical prowess and equipment and that the different Covid 19 strains don't dramatically affect this number, then it's down to...

1. Peoples' general health is better in Israel and/or they have more trust in their health care system and thus seek medical help earlier.

2. Treatments/Protocols are more effective.
eg. It's been suggested that a scan of the lungs early could be a big deciding facor for a doctor on how to proceed.

Vitamin D ? been mentioned in various contexts , darker skin people in Northern Europe would have Vit D problems this time of the year for example

podgeandrodge · 15-04-2020 08:10PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Graph a bit misleading cutting off the last group at 65 - another couple of breakdowns might be better!

TOMs WIFE · 15-04-2020 08:12PM

BattleCorp wrote: »

They aren't social distancing down my way either. :mad:

I don't care if they don't social distance from themselves, but stay away from the rest of us.

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Comments