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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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Comments

  • #4202
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,811 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    2,190 deaths so far today across the US.

    Remember, Dr Trump has claimed in recent days every day that the death toll will be "well short" of 100,000 in his view.

    mmmm

    Reckon he has made a cross for his election with that one.

    25,870 deaths in the US so far.


  • #4203
    Coyote
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭Coyote


    caveat emptor wrote: »
    I do understand what you are saying. You clearly get it. Firstly I'm looking at the daily number of confirmed cases. The aggregate is useless in this instance.

    This is not a World Cup or other sports contest. I'm not looking at what other countries are doing. I don't judge myself against others low standards and as a nation I don't think we do either.

    So that chart with the daily cases. The median time to hospitalisation lags significantly. Also the average length of stay in hospital is very long comparatively. So cases build and it takes time for those cases to enter the hospital system and takes even longer to get out of hospital.

    You may not see the effect of daily cases on the symptoms until a week after.
    Average hospital stay is 2 weeks. So If cases are increasing it's a problem. Staying at home bored ****less is supposed to help us. Crucially if we reach a critical mass the overwhelming of hospitals could occur no matter what we do.

    The lag is significant and that's why only looking at current hospital admissions is already out of date.


    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035436v2.full.pdf

    509601.png


    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30075-4/fulltext

    Hi caveat emptor

    i agree i don't think that the daily cases found are a good way of tracking it but they are a way. the number of deaths it better but many country are not fully reporting them, i think Ireland is better than most.
    they do help to get an idea of the growth in numbers and the better we test the better we understand

    from the charts i post everyday the recovers from ICU are the number entered 15 days before as from my research 14 days was the avg leave/death.
    the avg from hospitalization to death was shorter at 9-11 days but again would not argue a it could be longer when including exposure date to 16 days

    this is why i say every time
    "if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late"

    but the number of people on this thread who post "not a problem" or don't understand "exponential growth" (not counting you in that number) that something that is 100 people today can be a million in a month or two and open everything up or claiming Ireland is doing badly when they don't understand the numbers.
    Ireland is doing ok not great but the EU is one of the worst hit places in the world right now. about the same as switzerland not know for being bad at health care.

    we can beat this, are people willing to do what it takes i don't know, contact tracing with apps, wearing masks, old people staying out of the public.
    all of it's hard work but I do think we made good decisions that so far have affected the outcome.

    to many people are treating this a something that is political. it's dependent on the people of Ireland to make the changes needed. not everything will be easy and if we were an Island with no boarder to the north it would be easier but we have to live with the decisions made to try and not cause a rift with NL for the next 20 years and it's hard to balance.

    I would like to say it's nice to have someone agree or disagree with a well thought out argument and not just some random stat that "Faeroe Islands" has tested more per million. I think this thread could do with more well thought out posts and less random stats or clams

    Regards

    Coyote


  • #4204
    Gynoid
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,524 ✭✭✭Gynoid


    https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000007082510/coronavirus-treatment.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

    Interesting video today in NYT. Continues Dr Cameron Kyle Sidells speculation re different types of infection, the weirdness of Covid, it being not classic ARDS. Other doctors contributing from opposing sides.


  • #4205
    Mwengwe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 454 ✭✭Mwengwe


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    Some more pessimistic news, Coronavirus distancing may need to continue until 2022, say experts

    Honestly these articles are getting pointless and are deliberately pushed to get clicks. No-one knows, it's speculation. Just take it a day at a time.


  • #4206
    Mwengwe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 454 ✭✭Mwengwe


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    Some more pessimistic news, Coronavirus distancing may need to continue until 2022, say experts

    Honestly these articles are getting pointless and are deliberately pushed to get clicks. No-one knows, it's speculation. Just take it a day at a time.

    This: "One scenario predicted a resurgence could occur as far in the future as 2025 in the absence of a vaccine or effective treatment."
    Yeah, sounds very scary, but also a pretty big 'if'.


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  • #4207
    Danzy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,242 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    I guess you are psychic if you can tell what is going on in my mind... useful skill that !

    17th in the world for deaths = 406 very unfortunate people RIP
    20th in the world for cases = 11,479 unfortunate people
    124th in the world for population = 4,937,786 people
    18th in the world for testing = 18,358/million pop (top 10 for testing if micro states are excluded)

    The idea 104 countries above us in population are all being dishonest with their figures seems far fetched to me.

    Likewise the idea that it is not possible to compare countries based on the figures provided by Worldometer is head in the sand stuff.

    And I still think it still takes some spinning to put a positive gloss on the shocking figures above.

    Other countries are not being dishonest, they just haven't been counting outside of hospitals.

    Different way of doing it.

    Italian doctors believe the death rate was multiples of reported.
    Britain was only testing those in ICU for a long time, deaths outside of there were not.
    Unprecedented situation in modern times.
    Not a plot. B


  • #4208
    Atlantic Dawn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 86,596 ✭✭✭✭Atlantic Dawn
    GDY151


    White House press briefing outside today, CNN saying it's so mics can be removed from reporters. Yesterday each reported was mic-ed up seperately.


  • #4209
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    GM228 wrote: »
    I suggested it a few weeks ago:-

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=112904211



    Do you want Super Gold Medal Internet Points for predicting a Depression and then going back to quote yourself as proof?

    Ray Charles could've seen there's more than a standard recession coming


  • #4210
    ihdxwz4a3pem9j
    Closed Accounts Posts: 82 ✭✭ihdxwz4a3pem9j


    Cork Boy 53 wrote: »
    Interesting. I wonder if you have had an opportunity to read the HSE consultant`s posts in this thread.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062219

    While some of his comments re. the HSE tally with yours others are at odds with them. Any thoughts on this?

    I am a non-consultant hospital doctor (NCHD). I am on a training scheme to become a consultant. I have completed several years. So, I obviously don’t have the same years experience as the AMA poster.

    The consultant seemed bang on in his/her assessment of a lot of things, but admittedly, I haven’t had a chance to read it all.

    I get angry when people bang on about the HSE. Sure it’s not perfect, but it is not bad by any stretch! Certain people speak about it with such authority. Yet, these people have not worked in it. They have no experience of foreign health-services. They do not understand how complex the health situation is in all western countries (ageing demographic, more medical comorbidities, increased expectations for treatments for all people). I will be glad to continue my training for consultancy here. And hopefully, when I complete my training, I will be a consultant here. People vote with their feet. I am staying put. The HSE is decent.

    I am talking with doctor-friends in other countries. I think that we are doing well in comparison. The management seem to genuinely want to help us. In other countries, the doctors are given one mask per week. In the hospital where I work, we have all the PPE that we need when we are in at-risk situations.


  • #4211
    Roger_007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    Jizique wrote: »
    Their economy is still trashed, albeit at perhaps not as totally trashed as some.
    Economies are so intertwined these days - do you think Scania are not experiencing the same conditions as the Mercedes truck business, or Volvo? Or Volvo cars the same issues as BMW or Audi, and can they build without that part that comes from an Italian supplier? And what about the engineering companies like Assa and Atlas? Global companies all who will rise or fall based on what is happening in their end markets, not on whether the local coffee shop is open

    Those industries will recover soon enough. What they are not doing is paying out economically suicidal amounts of money to all and sundry. There is already a €20 billion hole in our finances so far and it’s growing at the rate of billions every week. Tax revenue is drying up. All this is being financed with borrowing and is being added to our already huge debt of €200 billion.
    All this debt will have to be serviced for years before a cent can be spent on our public services. It is economic insanity.


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  • #4212
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,179 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage


  • #4213
    declanflynn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,160 ✭✭✭declanflynn


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    I guess you are psychic if you can tell what is going on in my mind... useful skill that !

    17th in the world for deaths = 406 very unfortunate people RIP
    20th in the world for cases = 11,479 unfortunate people
    124th in the world for population = 4,937,786 people
    18th in the world for testing = 18,358/million pop (top 10 for testing if micro states are excluded)

    The idea 104 countries above us in population are all being dishonest with their figures seems far fetched to me.

    Likewise the idea that it is not possible to compare countries based on the figures provided by Worldometer is head in the sand stuff.

    And I still think it still takes some spinning to put a positive gloss on the shocking figures above.
    load of bull droppings, look at our ICU capacity


  • #4214
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Mwengwe wrote: »
    Honestly these articles are getting pointless and are deliberately pushed to get clicks. No-one knows, it's speculation. Just take it a day at a time.

    I'd agree however it is about a paper published in Science today. Everything from easing restrictions to possible immunity is based on assumptions at the moment.

    No harm getting your head around the worst case senarios.


  • #4215
    Iamabeliever
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 464 ✭✭Iamabeliever


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

    It's too soon to be sure


  • #4216
    Venom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,984 ✭✭✭Venom


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage


    ya-think-5b478c.jpg


  • #4217
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Alisa Odd Wasp wrote: »
    I am a non-consultant hospital doctor (NCHD). I am on a training scheme to become a consultant. I have completed several years. So, I obviously don’t have the same years experience as the AMA poster.

    The consultant seemed bang on in his/her assessment of a lot of things, but admittedly, I haven’t had a chance to read it all.

    I get angry when people bang on about the HSE. Sure it’s not perfect, but it is not bad by any stretch! Certain people speak about it with such authority. Yet, these people have not worked in it. They have no experience of foreign health-services. They do not understand how complex the health situation is in all western countries (ageing demographic, more medical comorbidities, increased expectations for treatments for all people). I will be glad to continue my training for consultancy here. And hopefully, when I complete my training, I will be a consultant here. People vote with their feet. I am staying put. The HSE is decent.

    I am talking with doctor-friends in other countries. I think that we are doing well in comparison. The management seem to genuinely want to help us. In other countries, the doctors are given one mask per week. In the hospital where I work, we have all the PPE that we need when we are in at-risk situations.


    Well done. You clearly like what you do so you are already in a minority. Very rare for someone to speak so positively about their employer on an Internet forum where it is of little consequence. You obviously hold them in high regard. Thanks for sharing.

    Keep fighting the good fight. Stay safe. Thank you.


  • #4218
    Technophobe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭Technophobe


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage
    Not sure if serious????


  • #4219
    boardise
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,750 ✭✭✭boardise


    Michael Dwyer wrote: »
    As an aside, the epidemiologist speaking is Ruairi Brugha. Grandson of Cathal, reputedly shot 25 times in 1916. Kept himself alive singing God Save Ireland! Also anti treaty, anti Collins later.

    His mam is Maire McSweeney, daughter of Terrence. So his other grandfather is Terrence McSweeney, who died in Brixton prison after a 74 day hunger strike in October 1920.

    Aha - I see you're one of the mountain men...keeping the flame alive so to speak.


  • #4220
    celticWario
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 111 ✭✭celticWario


    Funsterdelux wrote: »
    Some more pessimistic news, Coronavirus distancing may need to continue until 2022, say experts


    lmao my scrotey neighbors went back to normal after like 5 days, impossible to enforce, makes you realize the fear of any kind of totalitarian dystopia is nonsense if they cant lock down a few housing estates


  • #4221
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,179 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Iamabeliever wrote: »
    It's too soon to be sure

    Well yeah it is until maybe June July time but The bigger story could be the recovery in second part of the year I choose to be optimistic.


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  • #4222
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    Mwengwe wrote: »
    Honestly these articles are getting pointless and are deliberately pushed to get clicks. No-one knows, it's speculation. Just take it a day at a time.

    Without speculation there would be no discussion. Nobody knows what's going to happen. This speculation is as valid as saying we'll be back to normal next September.


  • #4223
    joe_99
    Closed Accounts Posts: 763 ✭✭✭joe_99


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    I guess you are psychic if you can tell what is going on in my mind... useful skill that !

    17th in the world for deaths = 406 very unfortunate people RIP
    20th in the world for cases = 11,479 unfortunate people
    124th in the world for population = 4,937,786 people
    18th in the world for testing = 18,358/million pop (top 10 for testing if micro states are excluded)

    The idea 104 countries above us in population are all being dishonest with their figures seems far fetched to me.

    Likewise the idea that it is not possible to compare countries based on the figures provided by Worldometer is head in the sand stuff.

    And I still think it still takes some spinning to put a positive gloss on the shocking figures above.

    Worldometer are just collating propaganda from countries. The Irish numbers are wrong we all know that as the modellers themselves have indicated thus in the daily press conferences.

    We can also then say that the numbers are wrong in every other country on the planet. No country has tested everyone with it, many are dying untested etc.

    Now that we have established all numbers are wrong what is the point of comparison?

    The only figure we can rely on is ICU numbers. Ultimately this is the fundamental measure of our success or failure.


  • #4224
    Funsterdelux
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,376 ✭✭✭Funsterdelux


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

    Right up there with Love Island


  • #4225
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,811 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    If you are wondering why Trump's press conference is always delayed apparently this is intentional to eat in to prime time slots (which is why he keeps them going so long)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuCGKEbGrtI


  • #4226
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Coyote wrote: »
    Hi caveat emptor

    i agree i don't think that the daily cases found are a good way of tracking it but they are a way. the number of deaths it better but many country are not fully reporting them, i think Ireland is better than most.
    they do help to get an idea of the growth in numbers and the better we test the better we understand

    from the charts i post everyday the recovers from ICU are the number entered 15 days before as from my research 14 days was the avg leave/death.
    the avg from hospitalization to death was shorter at 9-11 days but again would not argue a it could be longer when including exposure date to 16 days

    this is why i say every time
    "if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late"

    but the number of people on this thread who post "not a problem" or don't understand "exponential growth" (not counting you in that number) that something that is 100 people today can be a million in a month or two and open everything up or claiming Ireland is doing badly when they don't understand the numbers.
    Ireland is doing ok not great but the EU is one of the worst hit places in the world right now. about the same as switzerland not know for being bad at health care.

    we can beat this, are people willing to do what it takes i don't know, contact tracing with apps, wearing masks, old people staying out of the public.
    all of it's hard work but I do think we made good decisions that so far have affected the outcome.

    to many people are treating this a something that is political. it's dependent on the people of Ireland to make the changes needed. not everything will be easy and if we were an Island with no boarder to the north it would be easier but we have to live with the decisions made to try and not cause a rift with NL for the next 20 years and it's hard to balance.

    I would like to say it's nice to have someone agree or disagree with a well thought out argument and not just some random stat that "Faeroe Islands" has tested more per million. I think this thread could do with more well thought out posts and less random stats or clams

    Regards

    Coyote


    Couldn't agree more with everything you said. Fair play. A lot to be positive about. I don't want us to let down our guard.

    :)


  • #4227
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

    Since late Feb it has been the only story globally and realistically will be for at least the rest of 2020.


  • #4228
    Jizique
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,287 ✭✭✭Jizique


    Roger_007 wrote: »
    Those industries will recover soon enough. What they are not doing is paying out economically suicidal amounts of money to all and sundry. There is already a €20 billion hole in our finances so far and it’s growing at the rate of billions every week. Tax revenue is drying up. All this is being financed with borrowing and is being added to our already huge debt of €200 billion.
    All this debt will have to be serviced for years before a cent can be spent on our public services. It is economic insanity.

    In fairness, our equivalents, largely multinational, are working from home.
    Sure there is an issue with the govt largesse, but if it really is capped at €350 per week for 3 months, it won’t be too bad. The pressure will come from SF to continue paying this sum to everyone who loses their job - plus of course their rent and mortgage.


  • #4229
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    If you are wondering why Trump's press conference is always delayed apparently this is intentional to eat in to prime time slots (which is why he keeps them going so long)


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuCGKEbGrtI

    So weird waiting for it to starts. It's like you are sitting in the garden with them, Very strange. :eek:


  • #4230
    Pinch Flat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,779 ✭✭✭Pinch Flat


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

    I think it's certainly passed the Gareth Brookes fiasco a few years back


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  • #4231
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    Beechwoodspark wrote: »
    C19 is becoming the big story of this whole year at this stage

    We're only a few months into 2020 and it's an absolute pack of complete and utter sh1t year.

    We came into the year with
    The Australian bushfires sweeping across Australia
    Boris Johnson continued with brexit
    Then this virus started to sweep from Asia into Europe and beyond.
    Chernobyl gave us a fright with fires recently

    Can anything else go wrong for us. We need something to pick us up and give us some good news.

    The best news so far is NASA telling us of an asteroid approaching Earth and from what they can see, it won't collide with Earth.


This discussion has been closed.
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