Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

munsterlegend · 13-04-2020 09:43PM

easypazz wrote: »

Fauci V Trump up shortly.

Is that at 11 our time?

AlmightyCushion · 13-04-2020 09:44PM

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is that at 11 our time?

The stream just started so should be starting soon.

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 09:45PM

fritzelly wrote: »

If you had been following this virus you would know some people can go from feeling OK to dead in 24 hours - look at BJ

Is he dead?

coastwatch · 13-04-2020 09:45PM

Wombatman wrote: »

He can be upset all he likes.

20% of people who die have no underlying health conditions.

I would guess at least another 20% of those with a condition have a fighting chance.

That makes at least 40% of the 275 who died in hospital were far from being "medically appropriate".

110 of the 275 should have died fighting in ICU. Not 37!

Remember we are not even including nursing home or community deaths in the 275 who died in a hospital setting.

268 have been treated in ICU.

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/...s-by-age-group

syngindub · 13-04-2020 09:45PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

The stream just started so should be starting soon.

Link to stream?

embraer170 · 13-04-2020 09:47PM

joe_99 wrote: »

Old people rarely make it to ICU. Standard in health services world wide. ICU is extremely invasive and demanding on staff and patients.

The stories from Italy, Spain etc. described hospitals full of people in their 70s, 80s and even 90s.

The impression I have from Ireland (and the UK based on the NHS critical care admission chart I shared earlier) is that such people may not even have made it to ICU.

AlmightyCushion · 13-04-2020 09:47PM

syngindub wrote: »

Link to stream?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/live/

Birdie Num Num · 13-04-2020 09:49PM

quartz1 wrote: »

167 People have died in Nursing Homes. I cant understand how these people never made it to ICU. Are the survival prospects really that poor for ill elderly people . I post this as a question not an accusation. It's really sad.

The fact that many are privately owned, run ventures might be a reason. As I understand it, staffing has been an issue since the crisis in many.

easypazz · 13-04-2020 09:49PM

Just started.

Anita Blow · 13-04-2020 09:50PM

Wombatman wrote: »

He can be upset all he likes.

20% of people who die have no underlying health conditions.

I would guess at least another 20% of those with a condition have a fighting chance.

That makes at least 40% of the 275 who died in hospital were far from being "medically appropriate".

110 of the 275 should have died fighting in ICU. Not 37!

Remember we are not even including nursing home or community deaths in the 275 who died in a hospital setting.

To be fair you've plucked 40% out of thin air with absolutely nothing to base it on and it's wildly incorrect.
Any COVID inpatient with anything more than mild disease gets an ICU review at ward-level which guides best management on the ward to avoid ICU admission and also advises whether or not the person is suitable for ICU.

I have now pronounced a couple COVID deaths on-call and I can assure you all had been seen by ICU and none would've benefited from ICU admission. The criteria for deciding ICU suitability is no different now than it was before COVID. What did benefit these people, rather than futile intubation in an ICU, was doing everything we could at ward-level to save them and where death was inevitable despite our best efforts, prompt palliative care input to ensure they passed comfortably and with dignity.

JRant · 13-04-2020 09:50PM

Having spent many years working on computer modelling and simulations I can say it's an extremely difficult thing to do with any degree of accuracy.

At the beginning of this they may have been able to just pump an R0 of say 2/3/4 and what the numbers grow exponentially. Now, start to throw in all the variables associated with human behavior, movement, and socializing and it very quickly becomes an exercise in futility.

As I was told many years ago while running computer models on a new product - "the sea won't be long making ****e of your model". They were spot on as well.

Now, all this is not to say we shouldn't use every available tool we have but to defer to it in the way Leo and Simon are is a mistake IMO.

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 09:52PM

JRant wrote: »

Having spent many years working on computer modelling and simulations I can say it's an extremely difficult thing to do with any degree of accuracy.

At the beginning of this they may have been able to just pump an R0 of say 2/3/4 and what the numbers grow exponentially. Now, start to throw in all the variables associated with human behavior, movement, and socializing and it very quickly becomes an exercise in futility.

As I was told many years ago while running computer models on a new product - "the sea won't be long making ****e of your model". They were spot on as well.

Now, all this is not to say we shouldn't use every available tool we have but to defer to it in the way Leo and Simon are is a mistake IMO.

'All models are wrong, but some are useful'

joe_99 · 13-04-2020 09:53PM

embraer170 wrote: »

The stories from Italy, Spain etc. described hospitals full of people in their 70s, 80s and even 90s.

The impression I have from Ireland (and the UK based on the NHS critical care admission chart I shared earlier) is that such people may not even have made it to ICU.

Standard practice. Ireland have few ICU beds relative to other EU countries so we have always avoided using them for older people

Wombatman · 13-04-2020 09:54PM

coastwatch wrote: »

268 have been treated in ICU.

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/...s-by-age-group

Yes.

So far, 269 people have been treated in intensive care since this crisis began.

65 people have been discharged from ICU (24%), while 37 people died in ICU (14%).

167 people are still being cared for in ICU, and the median age of all of those people who have been admitted to intensive care so far is 61.

I'm on about the 247 who died in hospital. Do you not this it odd that only 37 of them died in ICU?

I find it odd that only 15% of those who died in hospital died in ICU?

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 09:56PM

Wombatman wrote: »

Yes.

So far, 269 people have been treated in intensive care since this crisis began.

65 people have been discharged from ICU (24%), while 37 people died in ICU (14%).

167 people are still being cared for in ICU, and the median age of all of those people who have been admitted to intensive care so far is 61.

I'm on about the 247 who died in hospital. Do you not this it odd that only 37 of them died in ICU?

I find it odd that only 15% of those who died in hospital died in ICU?

What the median age of people (all causes) admitted to ICU?

ACitizenErased · 13-04-2020 09:57PM

This is like a scene from North Korea.

Atlantic Dawn · 13-04-2020 09:57PM

Lol, this press conference will be explosive.

easypazz · 13-04-2020 09:57PM

Hilarious.

easypazz · 13-04-2020 09:58PM

Greatest economy in history of the world

Roger_007 · 13-04-2020 09:59PM

I’m disappointed in Fauci. He’s been bullied into back down on what he said yesterday and he went along with it. He should have walked.

BorneTobyWilde · 13-04-2020 09:59PM

Dr Fauci put media in its place. Trump reacted instantly to everything he asked.

Spencer Brown · 13-04-2020 10:00PM

This is embarrassing even by Trump standards.

Stheno · 13-04-2020 10:00PM

Wombatman wrote: »

He can be upset all he likes.

20% of people who die have no underlying health conditions.

I would guess at least another 20% of those with a condition have a fighting chance.

That makes at least 40% of the 275 who died in hospital were far from being "medically appropriate".

110 of the 275 should have died fighting in ICU. Not 37!

Remember we are not even including nursing home or community deaths in the 275 who died in a hospital setting.

Your last statement is incorrect Tony Holohan confirmed last Friday that a substantial amount of those who died in hospitals were nursing home residents

Rob A. Bank · 13-04-2020 10:00PM

Trump Buzzword Bingo:-

-Great
-Greatest
-Fantastic
-Incredible
-Tremendous
-Like nobody ever seen before
-Fake nuzz
-Who would have thought
-People can’t believe
-Amazing
-Like you wouldn't believe/ thought possible
-Billions and billions and billions
-Brilliant
-We have/are the best...
-in history
-Believe me
-Number 1 in the world
-look at the numbers
-They're doing a great job
-This country is great
-Big
-CHI-NAH
-WHO
-We are not happy about it
-Good shape
-Millions
-Take advantage of us
-best in the world
-more than any other country in the world (usually a lie)
-rich
-A lotta people are saying/somebody said (followed by misinformation from Fox News)

AlmightyCushion · 13-04-2020 10:00PM

'Sleepy Joe Biden'

This thing has only started and I'm already in tears laughing.

BorneTobyWilde · 13-04-2020 10:01PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I’m disappointed in Fauci. He’s been bullied into back down on what he said yesterday and he went along with it. He should have walked.

He's an honest man, and reacted when someone in room asked

'' are you doing this willingly''

Fauci :mad::mad::mad::mad:

''DON'T EVEN IMPLY THAT!!!

easypazz · 13-04-2020 10:01PM

Fcuk he is really blowing his trumpet now.

JRant · 13-04-2020 10:02PM

timmy_mallet wrote: »

'All models are wrong, but some are useful'

In a way yes. Look at weather modelling. It uses some of the most advanced computers in the world with decades of science to back them up yet they are only really useful up to a few days out.
If you have a gander over on the weather forum you'll see a lot of discussion around the different models and divergence between them etc. None of the models are "correct" as such but they are useful.
I hope that somewhat explained what I'm trying to say.

ACitizenErased · 13-04-2020 10:03PM

The greatest economy, the best employment

froog · 13-04-2020 10:03PM

Jesus christ

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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