Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

messin doorman · 13-04-2020 08:21PM

keynes wrote: »

The initial strategy was definitely to make bleak predictions (e.g., "15000 by end March", "the worst is coming") so as to cast any actual numbers, and hence their strategy, in a favorable light. And with all the opposition effectively muzzled, its highly opportunistic of Varadkar to engage in naked political stunts like "rejoining the health service" and the faux-Churchellian speeches.

I couldn’t agree more. With the speeches comment in particular. Take yesterday’s address. I’d challenge anyone to find some substantive useful information in there. “We may not have reached the peak... darkest days are ahead... by gum I hope I look good on reeling in the years”

Anita Blow · 13-04-2020 08:22PM

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Any other countries told 100 people they tested negative when they actually tested positive or just here?

That's not a mistake, that's negligence.

Hope the poor people go after the HSE in every court when this is all over.

It's neither a mistake nor is it negligence. False negatives/positives are an inherent part of any diagnostic test. 100 false negatives out of 70,000 tests performed is remarkably good.

trapp · 13-04-2020 08:22PM

keynes wrote: »

Its hard to figure out whether Professor Nolan is a political stooge or is simply quite dumb. Neither realities bode well. The most laughable thing of all was his estimation of R_0 being in the vicinity of one. Given our atrocious testing, its simply impossible to infer this; moreover, of course R_0 is low if we're all locked up! The only meaningful figure is the figure in a non-lockdown situation, yet Nolan seems oblivious to this

Couldn't agree more.

They built him and his models up as something that would be really great for us all to say.

All he had were two graphs and a worst case scenario of 100 000 a day which seems outlandish.

No real idea about where we were going other than we'd have to stay with lockdown forever.

As for De Gascun??

13-04-2020 08:22PM

keynes wrote: »

The initial strategy was definitely to make bleak predictions (e.g., "15000 by end March", "the worst is coming") so as to cast any actual numbers, and hence their strategy, in a favorable light. And with all the opposition effectively muzzled, its highly opportunistic of Varadkar to engage in naked political stunts like "rejoining the health service" and the faux-Churchellian speeches.

So you rethink restrictions are only for show? Without them there would be no more cases than now? Ridiculous

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 08:22PM

trapp wrote: »

I don't have one.

However constantly putting out worse case scenarios is a political strategy and you can be sure Nolan, De Gascun etc aren't going to rock the boat.

To quote Nolan.

''It's best not to think of lifting restrictions, but to find another way to live''

Easy to say from his castle up in Maynooth.

An output of his peronsality and job function, a match not suited to the role.

messin doorman · 13-04-2020 08:23PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

He was saying we would have that many cases in total, not every day

Well I’m going to check that and if I’m wrong I’ll apologize but I am as certain as possible these were daily figures.

coastwatch · 13-04-2020 08:23PM

trapp wrote: »

I don't have one.

However constantly putting out worse case scenarios is a political strategy and you can be sure Nolan, De Gascun etc aren't going to rock the boat.

To quote Nolan.

''It's best not to think of lifting restrictions, but to find another way to live''

Easy to say from his castle up in Maynooth.

Dont think he owns it, just works there.

Iamabeliever · 13-04-2020 08:25PM

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Any other countries told 100 people they tested negative when they actually tested positive or just here?

That's not a mistake, that's negligence.

Hope the poor people go after the HSE in every court when this is all over.

Go away up a field and ****e - unless ya get stung by a nettle cause you won't get money from a nettle

trapp · 13-04-2020 08:25PM

messin doorman wrote: »

Well I’m going to check that and if I’m wrong I’ll apologize but I am as certain as possible these were daily figures.

They were daily figures.

RobertKK · 13-04-2020 08:26PM

Deleted User wrote: »

All of Western Europe was caught out by this. Eastern Europe has far less travel, so is currently weathering a bit better, for the moment. The agenda that is trying to sell this as something particularly Irish is what annoys me, and is from the same ilk that paints everything positive that happens here in a bad light. We were slow off the mark, but in the light of an event unprecedented in modern times, our systems are coping. The country has bought into large scale restrictions with little resistance. We are doing well considering where this could have gone. When all is said a done most counties will have fared pretty similarly. Those places with low cases and low deaths will have to stay isolated for 12months with the prolonged depression that will follow or eventually experience the same as Western Europe is currently. This is about suppressing the spreads to give the health system a chance. The virus was always going to get here

All of Western Europe is not true.
Is Norway not Western Europe? Slightly bigger population than us and are planning on lowering their restrictions in the coming week or two, with hundreds less deaths.
I said we are comparing ourselves to other nations who have done equally as bad, and we are suppose to be happy with that?
Oh look at such a Western European country who has done equally as bad as Ireland, that means we have done alright, if everyone else is doing bad, does that mean we should accept our own leadership who use the taxes we pay that it is acceptable to be doing a bad job because others have too?

The virus was always going to come, but this is the government where the department of health said it was not their recommendation on no visitors to nursing homes.
Simon Harris who wanted and got the Italian rugby match called off while saying it was fine for the Italian fans to come to Dublin and to be "out and about" in Dublin when there was no social distancing.
It took the airliners to stop the flights to virus hotspots - when other countries had governments who stops flights and even bus journeys from Italy.
No advice or call that cancelled Irish participation at Cheltenham.

No quarantining or proper screening of people entering the country.
It looks like everything was done to spread the virus in this country, that is the only good job that was done, then it was too late.
If people think we have done a good job from the start of this because others did an equally awful job, we will never learn.

13-04-2020 08:27PM

trapp wrote: »

I don't have one.

However constantly putting out worse case scenarios is a political strategy and you can be sure Nolan, De Gascun etc aren't going to rock the boat.

To quote Nolan.

''It's best not to think of lifting restrictions, but to find another way to live''

Easy to say from his castle up in Maynooth.

Controlled lifting is required, sooner than most here are saying, but uncontrolled this would have left the health system in tatters. Given 90% plus reduction of interactions between people outside of the home, where do you think we would be if nothing had been done. Also, the regular insinuation that medical and academic professionals are in the hands of politicians is both insulting and libellous

valor · 13-04-2020 08:27PM

the thing on RTE today said the median age of deaths so far is 62

"Speaking this evening, Dr Holohan said that people as young as 30 and as old as 105 have died.

However, he said the mean age was 69, and the median age was 62."

Surely the median age being 62 is wrong? Every day when they announce the deaths the median age is normally in the 80's

Seamai · 13-04-2020 08:28PM

messin doorman wrote: »

I don’t think Britain are encountering those figures (open to correction on that point)

No country has had anything remotely near that figure, I think the largest daily increase anywhere was 30 odd thousand in the U.S a few days ago.

13-04-2020 08:28PM

keynes wrote: »

Its hard to figure out whether Professor Nolan is a political stooge or is simply quite dumb. Neither realities bode well. The most laughable thing of all was his estimation of R_0 being in the vicinity of one. Given our atrocious testing, its simply impossible to infer this; moreover, of course R_0 is low if we're all locked up! The only meaningful figure is the figure in a non-lockdown situation, yet Nolan seems oblivious to this

Do you think it’s possible they have access to more data than you?

DevilsHaircut · 13-04-2020 08:28PM

trapp wrote: »

Couldn't agree more.

They built him and his models up as something that would be really great for us all to say.

All he had were two graphs and a worst case scenario of 100 000 a day which seems outlandish.

No real idea about where we were going other than we'd have to stay with lockdown forever.

As for De Gascun??

100,000 new cases a day (at the actual peak, not every day) is what would have happened if they had continued doubling every 3 days (as they would have done without the measures).

The R0 includes an estimate of undiagnosed cases (whether because they are asymptomatic or not). They have assumed that there is one unconfirmed for each confirmed case.

Ficheall · 13-04-2020 08:30PM

messin doorman wrote: »

Two cents here -
Simon Harris well able to tell us earlier today what the figures would have been but for the preventative action taken (which was an implicit invitation to the public to take it that the government is handling this in a really stellar manner). Figures would have reached in the near future 70k diagnoses per day had we taken limited preventative action or 120k diagnoses per day had we not taken action.

Surprises me that he’s able to point to these really specific numbers when it is politically expedient for him to do so, but he’s not able to commit to future numbers and dates for specific release of restrictions.

Not to defend the gov't's actions throughout the course of the pandemic, but it is feasible that it is easier to make predictions based on a free-for-all spread than with restrictions.

With the restrictions, and trying to rely on people's adherence to the measures etc, things become much more complicated.

Have a look at these graphs:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
The purpose of the article is actually to illustrate the spread given varying levels of restrictions, but the graphs will also suffice to illustrate my point.

Run the first model a few times - the outcome is almost identical every time. This is the spread without restrictions.

Run the other three models a few times - their outcomes, where the peaks are etc., are more difficult to predict.

Had no restrictions been put in place, it would have been easier to model and make predictions. But there would have been more cases, a greater demand on the ICUs, and more cases/deaths. I'm happier with a little uncertainty, personally.

Iamabeliever · 13-04-2020 08:30PM

RobertKK wrote: »

All of Western Europe is not true.
Is Norway not Western Europe? Slightly bigger population than us and are planning on lowering their restrictions in the coming week or two, with hundreds less deaths.
I said we are comparing ourselves to other nations who have done equally as bad, and we are suppose to be happy with that?
Oh look at such a Western European who has done equally as bad as Ireland, that means we have done alright, if everyone else is doing bad, does that mean we should accept our own leadership who use the taxes we pay that it is acceptable to be doing a bad job because others have too?

The virus was always going to come, but this is the government where the department of health said it was not their recommendation on no visitors to nursing homes.
Simon Harris who wanted and got the Italian rugby match called off while saying it was fine for the Italian fans to come to Dublin and to be "out and about" in Dublin when there was no social distancing.
It took the airliners to stop the flights to virus hotspots - when other countries had governments who stops flights and even bus journeys from Italy.
No advice or call that cancelled Irish participation at Cheltenham.

No quarantining or proper screening of people entering the country.
It looks like everything was done to spread the virus in this country, that is the only good job that was done, then it was too late.
If people think we have done a good job from the start of this because others did an equally awful job, we will never learn.

Taught the government were following WHO guidelines. No?

Seamai · 13-04-2020 08:31PM

valor wrote: »

the thing on RTE today said the median age of deaths so far is 62

"Speaking this evening, Dr Holohan said that people as young as 30 and as old as 105 have died.

However, he said the mean age was 69, and the median age was 62."

Surely the median age being 62 is wrong? Every day when they announce the deaths the median age is normally in the 80's

I thought we had put this whole median, mean, average thing to bed.

trapp · 13-04-2020 08:31PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Controlled lifting is required, sooner than most here are saying, but uncontrolled this would have left the health system in tatters. Given 90% plus reduction of interactions between people outside of the home, where do you think we would be if nothing had been done. Also, the regular insinuation that medical and academic professionals are in the hands of politicians is both insulting and libellous

No I don't think they are working for the politicians however being a professor in Maynooth doesn't give you authority to dictate the policy of the country.

Not that he has done but these academics need to remember their role.

Just Saying · 13-04-2020 08:32PM

valor wrote: »

the thing on RTE today said the median age of deaths so far is 62

"Speaking this evening, Dr Holohan said that people as young as 30 and as old as 105 have died.

However, he said the mean age was 69, and the median age was 62."

Surely the median age being 62 is wrong? Every day when they announce the deaths the median age is normally in the 80's

I think he got mixed up between the median age in ICU and the median age of deaths.

The median age of deaths has been fairly consistent at 81/82 and by its nature median is slow to change drastically especially when dealing with over 300 deaths.

timmy_mallet · 13-04-2020 08:32PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you think it’s possible they have access to more data than you?

Well, no, unless all governments are pulling a fast one.

trapp · 13-04-2020 08:33PM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

100,000 new cases a day (at the actual peak, not every day) is what would have happened if they had continued doubling every 3 days (as they would have done without the measures).

The R0 includes an estimate of undiagnosed cases (whether because they are asymptomatic or not). They have assumed that there is one unconfirmed for each confirmed case.

But that was never going to happen. ie no measures.

messin doorman · 13-04-2020 08:34PM

messin doorman wrote: »

Well I’m going to check that and if I’m wrong I’ll apologize but I am as certain as possible these were daily figures.

Figures are daily

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/harris-120-000-people-would-have-contracted-coronavirus-in-one-day-without-restrictions-1.4227793?mode=amp

normanoffside · 13-04-2020 08:34PM

Stheno wrote: »

Hmm doesn't bode well

But we were ourselves in something close to lock down since before then.
Schools closed on 12th March

JP Liz V1 · 13-04-2020 08:34PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Poor people? These test were weeks old, and came back virtually undetectable. We’re repeated and gave weak positive. A mistake was made by reporting undetectable levels as negative, but this did not impact treatment. This is not a death sentence. Slow reporting will not make outcomes worse. Treatment is based on symptoms not diagnosis. In what way would anyone have any claim of damages out of this?

If you were given a negative diagnosis, you could have gone out but because positive then spreading the virus without knowing, 100 positive cases getting the wrong negative result first when positive is bad by HSE

I think we need to get the testing here working well, delayed results at nearly 20 to 30 days is ridiculous

wakka12 · 13-04-2020 08:35PM

Seamai wrote: »

No country has had anything remotely near that figure, I think the largest daily increase anywhere was 30 odd thousand in the U.S a few days ago.

That is because every country has a limit to the number of people it can test. There are likely several hundred thousand infections occurring in the United states daily, perhaps as many as a million per day going by the death rate

trapp · 13-04-2020 08:37PM

Genuine question as I am unsure.

But how influential are academics like Nolan and De Gascun in dictating policy.

I'm not suggesting it's good or bad that they are, just curious as to how influential they might be?

RobertKK · 13-04-2020 08:40PM

Iamabeliever wrote: »

Taught the government were following WHO guidelines. No?

The government have spent the time putting the responsibility onto others because they have been unwilling to accept any responsibility on the decisions made, maybe this is due to the general election, or just very poor leadership in this country.
The experts say it is up to the government to make the decisions based on their advice.
There is no one accepting ultimate responsibility. Just listen to the politicians in charge talking, they will deflect onto the experts.

The WHO have not come out of this looking good, and have seemed to be afraid of the Chinese Communist Party.

Deeper Blue · 13-04-2020 08:40PM

The ICU figures are relatively stable and we haven't ended up like Italy/Spain/UK with an overwhelmed health system

This was a best case scenario a few weeks back. I know some are quoting death rates per million etc but these mean very little as has been discussed previously.

We've done well all things considered.

13-04-2020 08:40PM

trapp wrote: »

No I don't think they are working for the politicians however being a professor in Maynooth doesn't give you authority to dictate the policy of the country.

Not that he has done but these academics need to remember their role.

More anti intellectual inverse snobbery? Who should advise then, bus drivers, binmen?

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Comments