Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

GM228 · 13-04-2020 07:39PM

zinfandel wrote: »

My brother got a positive test result today from a test done 20 days ago plus the 5 days he was waiting for the test, he has long since recovered. Those German test results are really skewing the figures.

They only skew the numbers when you look at daily or average % increases, otherwise they don't as the numbers are cumulative.

ACitizenErased · 13-04-2020 07:39PM

expectationlost wrote: »

have you got that right did he not show 3 graphs

Can only find 2 on the RTE replay.

https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1249744563004153857?s=20

TheDoctor · 13-04-2020 07:40PM

French president Emmanuel Macron has said that lockdown in his country is to be extended until 11 May.

13-04-2020 07:40PM

Mwengwe wrote: »

May have been off-base with earlier comments about supermarket workers

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/12/grocery-worker-fear-death-coronavirus/

I don't know about this epidemic but shop workers were one of the high death groups in the 1918-19 Spanish Flu in Ireland.

But young adults in general were particularly hit in those mortality stakes - unlike Covid.

Stheno · 13-04-2020 07:41PM

TheDoctor wrote: »

French president Emmanuel Macron has said that lockdown in his country is to be extended until 11 May.

When did they first go into lockdown?

TheDoctor · 13-04-2020 07:42PM

Stheno wrote: »

When did they first go into lockdown?

17 March

Stheno · 13-04-2020 07:44PM

TheDoctor wrote: »

17 March

Hmm doesn't bode well

messin doorman · 13-04-2020 07:51PM

Two cents here -

Simon Harris well able to tell us earlier today what the figures would have been but for the preventative action taken (which was an implicit invitation to the public to take it that the government is handling this in a really stellar manner). Figures would have reached in the near future 70k diagnoses per day had we taken limited preventative action or 120k diagnoses per day had we not taken action.

Surprises me that he’s able to point to these really specific numbers when it is politically expedient for him to do so, but he’s not able to commit to future numbers and dates for specific release of restrictions.

I believe that the present crisis is being treated by him as a great opportunity for him to look ministerial. Same for Leo - a few days ago breaking out Séamus Heany quotes simply to tell us that restrictions are being extended for three weeks.

Career politicians at their absolute worst. Shallow fig leaves without heart or courage.

joe_99 · 13-04-2020 07:51PM

This is the third graph shows German tests on correct dates. Red line.

We were seeing a nice drop on red line until a few days ago when it started to grow again. Probably down to increase in testing

Ace2007 · 13-04-2020 07:58PM

messin doorman wrote: »

Surprises me that he’s able to point to these really specific numbers when it is politically expedient for him to do so, but he’s not able to commit to future numbers and dates for specific release of restrictions.

So you want him to commit to a future date, when the world is living in uncertain times - like if we have 35 deaths every day until the 5th May - chances are the "lockdown" will be extended. No one know what's going to happen next week, yet alone in 3 weeks time.

rodders999 · 13-04-2020 08:00PM

easypazz wrote: »

You go in and out of your room and don't mix with anybody else?

I can do that at home.

RobertKK · 13-04-2020 08:03PM

messin doorman wrote: »

Two cents here -

Simon Harris well able to tell us earlier today what the figures would have been but for the preventative action taken (which was an implicit invitation to the public to take it that the government is handling this in a really stellar manner). Figures would have reached in the near future 70k diagnoses per day had we taken limited preventative action or 120k diagnoses per day had we not taken action.

Surprises me that he’s able to point to these really specific numbers when it is politically expedient for him to do so, but he’s not able to commit to future numbers and dates for specific release of restrictions.

I believe that the present crisis is being treated by him as a great opportunity for him to look ministerial. Same for Leo - a few days ago breaking out Séamus Heany quotes simply to tell us that restrictions are being extended for three weeks.

Career politicians at their absolute worst. Shallow fig leaves without heart or courage.

They are doing pretty poor jobs, but the cheerleaders will like earlier today call people 'muppets' if they disagree because we should be comparing Ireland to countries who have done an equally poor job rather than those who have done better.

A lot of people are prepared to believe everything the government spoon feeds them about this. It is in the government's interest to make massive failures in all of this look like a success.
Some take fireman actions as being good leadership because they don't want to criticise the inaction that caused the fire.

Quantum Erasure · 13-04-2020 08:05PM

messin doorman wrote: »

Figures would have reached in the near future 70k diagnoses per day had we taken limited preventative action or 120k diagnoses per day had we not taken action....

Career politicians at their absolute worst. Shallow fig leaves without heart or courage.

how many would we actually have to be testing per day to reach those numbers i wonder?

messin doorman · 13-04-2020 08:05PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

So you want him to commit to a future date, when the world is living in uncertain times - like if we have 35 deaths every day until the 5th May - chances are the "lockdown" will be extended. No one know what's going to happen next week, yet alone in 3 weeks time.

Not so. I’m saying he has arithmetic available to map out how things may look in the future. He must have arithmetic that shows a good scenario and a bad scenario. Let us know what that is.

He’s discreditable in my view. The week just ended was described by him a few weeks ago as a really really crucial week. Now instead of telling us where we are (good, bad or simply on track) he just tells us vague things like the next few weeks are crucial.

Ficheall · 13-04-2020 08:09PM

messin doorman wrote: »

Not so. I’m saying he has arithmetic available to map out how things may look in the future.

What is this strange "arithmetic" that he has access to that we don't? Do you reckon he's dividing by zero or something?

trapp · 13-04-2020 08:09PM

I've been impressed by Harris and Varadkar at times through this but their insistince on putting out these crazy figurues, 100,000 a day, from the models of that ridiculous man Prof Nolan really look like an attempt to make themselves look good.

Probably a little bit unfair but still.

messin doorman · 13-04-2020 08:09PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

how many would we actually have to be testing per day to reach those numbers i wonder?

I don’t think Britain are encountering those figures (open to correction on that point)

dundalkfc10 · 13-04-2020 08:13PM

Any other countries told 100 people they tested negative when they actually tested positive or just here?

That's not a mistake, that's negligence.

Hope the poor people go after the HSE in every court when this is all over.

Ace2007 · 13-04-2020 08:13PM

messin doorman wrote: »

I don’t think Britain are encountering those figures (open to correction on that point)

They have more than 10,000 hospital deaths, if you think the mortality rate is 3% - that means they have 300k cases at least.

13-04-2020 08:13PM

RobertKK wrote: »

They are doing pretty poor jobs, but the cheerleaders will like earlier today call people 'muppets' if they disagree because we should be comparing Ireland to countries who have done an equally poor job rather than those who have done better.

A lot of people are prepared to believe everything the government spoon feeds them about this. It is in the government's interest to make massive failures in all of this look like a success.
Some take fireman actions as being good leadership because they don't want to criticise the inaction that caused the fire.

All of Western Europe was caught out by this. Eastern Europe has far less travel, so is currently weathering a bit better, for the moment. The agenda that is trying to sell this as something particularly Irish is what annoys me, and is from the same ilk that paints everything positive that happens here in a bad light. We were slow off the mark, but in the light of an event unprecedented in modern times, our systems are coping. The country has bought into large scale restrictions with little resistance. We are doing well considering where this could have gone. When all is said a done most counties will have fared pretty similarly. Those places with low cases and low deaths will have to stay isolated for 12months with the prolonged depression that will follow or eventually experience the same as Western Europe is currently. This is about suppressing the spreads to give the health system a chance. The virus was always going to get here

keynes · 13-04-2020 08:14PM

messin doorman wrote: »

Two cents here -
Surprises me that he’s able to point to these really specific numbers when it is politically expedient for him to do so, but he’s not able to commit to future numbers and dates for specific release of restrictions.

The initial strategy was definitely to make bleak predictions (e.g., "15000 by end March", "the worst is coming") so as to cast any actual numbers, and hence their strategy, in a favorable light. And with all the opposition effectively muzzled, its highly opportunistic of Varadkar to engage in naked political stunts like "rejoining the health service" and the faux-Churchellian speeches.

13-04-2020 08:16PM

trapp wrote: »

I've been impressed by Harris and Varadkar at times through this but their insistince on putting out these crazy figurues, 100,000 a day, from the models of that ridiculous man Prof Nolan really look like an attempt to make themselves look good.

Probably a little bit unfair but still.

Show us your qualification in epidemiology

GetWithIt · 13-04-2020 08:16PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

MIT Biologist and Inventor of Email - Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai ......

The inventor of email? Well you can't get more credible than that.

trapp · 13-04-2020 08:16PM

keynes wrote: »

The initial strategy was definitely to make bleak predictions (e.g., "15000 by end March", "the worst is coming") so as to cast any actual numbers, and hence their strategy, in a favorable light. And with all the opposition effectively muzzled, its highly opportunistic of Varadkar to engage in naked political stunts like "rejoining the health service" and the faux-Churchellian speeches.

I was impressed by him at the beginning but less so now.

I think in a few months time Varadkar will be finished.

messin doorman · 13-04-2020 08:17PM

Ace2007 wrote: »

They have more than 10,000 hospital deaths, if you think the mortality rate is 3% - that means they have 300k cases at least.

I completely accept that. My point is that I don’t think Britain are even seeing a new daily diagnosis rate of 70k to 120k (remember Simon Harris said this is where we would be in a few days but for the measures taken - this was a claimed daily figure)

I say he’s guilty of over the top self promotion as even Britain with its vastly larger population are not encountering anything close to these crazy (daily) numbers

trapp · 13-04-2020 08:18PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Show us your qualification in epidemiology

I don't have one.

However constantly putting out worse case scenarios is a political strategy and you can be sure Nolan, De Gascun etc aren't going to rock the boat.

To quote Nolan.

''It's best not to think of lifting restrictions, but to find another way to live''

Easy to say from his castle up in Maynooth.

Ace2007 · 13-04-2020 08:19PM

messin doorman wrote: »

I completely accept that. My point is that I don’t think Britain are even seeing a new daily diagnosis rate of 70k to 120k (remember Simon Harris said this is where we would be in a few days but for the measures taken - this was a claimed daily figure)

I say he’s guilty of over the top self promotion as even Britain with its vastly larger population are not encountering anything close to these crazy (daily) numbers

He was saying we would have that many cases in total, not every day

keynes · 13-04-2020 08:19PM

trapp wrote: »

I've been impressed by Harris and Varadkar at times through this but their insistince on putting out these crazy figurues, 100,000 a day, from the models of that ridiculous man Prof Nolan really look like an attempt to make themselves look good.

Probably a little bit unfair but still.

Its hard to figure out whether Professor Nolan is a political stooge or is simply quite dumb. Neither realities bode well. The most laughable thing of all was his estimation of R_0 being in the vicinity of one. Given our atrocious testing, its simply impossible to infer this; moreover, of course R_0 is low if we're all locked up! The only meaningful figure is the figure in a non-lockdown situation, yet Nolan seems oblivious to this

wakka12 · 13-04-2020 08:20PM

Iceland has now tested almost exactly 10% of it's entire population, and found 1700 infections. 0.46% of those patients have died, around 50% have recovered. So this virus is likely about .4/.5% mortality rate at least, possibly up to 1%. And likely significantly higher in countries like Italy Spain and UK, NY and Belgium where healthcare infrastrucutre is overwhelmed. So the original 1-2% still do look like reasonably accurate estimates

The second highest level of testing in the world is the UAE, which has tested about 7.5% of it's population, and has found a similar mortality rate of 0.6%.

An example of an 'overwhelmed' country would be Luxembourg, which has also has the third highest levels of testing in the world, and reports a mortality rate of 2%.

13-04-2020 08:21PM

dundalkfc10 wrote: »

Any other countries told 100 people they tested negative when they actually tested positive or just here?

That's not a mistake, that's negligence.

Hope the poor people go after the HSE in every court when this is all over.

Poor people? These test were weeks old, and came back virtually undetectable. We’re repeated and gave weak positive. A mistake was made by reporting undetectable levels as negative, but this did not impact treatment. This is not a death sentence. Slow reporting will not make outcomes worse. Treatment is based on symptoms not diagnosis. In what way would anyone have any claim of damages out of this?

Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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