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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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Comments

  • #3002
    Azatadine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,885 ✭✭✭Azatadine


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    The CMO showed exactly this in the press conference. There's no spikes whatsoever in growth.

    I really do think they need to look at the format of how they present slides. They should either have a much bigger screen or have a camera well trained in on the screen so that the data/graph/formatting is clear.


  • #3003
    crossman47
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,631 ✭✭✭crossman47


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    It's like the smear test scandal all over again, can the HSE do anything right??

    Read the whole article; its a minor issue that has little overall effect.


  • #3004
    davemckenna25
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,338 ✭✭✭davemckenna25


    RugbyLad11 wrote: »
    It's like the smear test scandal all over again, can the HSE do anything right??

    They are doing lots right... errors happen.. we all wish they didn't but they do. Overall I think this has been handled very well.


  • #3005
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Just in case some people don't understand the whole 'new' cases thing. Literally a quote from the government's press release:
    As of 11.15am Monday 13 April, the HPSC has been notified of the following cases:

    527 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported by Irish laboratories
    465 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported by a laboratory in Germany

    509441.png

    509442.png


  • #3006
    paddythere
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 439 ✭✭paddythere


    zinfandel wrote: »
    Because they are mainly old and recovered cases, people looking at 900 new cases each day for the last few days and the next few think the lock down is not working and things are escalating out of control.

    The figures arent skewed though, its just dumb people not reading properly


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  • #3007
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Azatadine wrote: »
    I really do think they need to look at the format of how they present slides. They should either have a much bigger screen or have a camera well trained in on the screen so that the data/graph/formatting is clear.
    Completely agree. They're not even released.


  • #3008
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,195 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1249761656181116928?s=20

    Just on this, look mistake happen in every walk of life.

    But the important thing to remember is that it takes so long to get a result, that the people should have been self isolating long enough, and if they still had symptoms after the negative test, they should have self isolated and/or contacted their GP to say here look my test from 10 days ago in negative but I feel like sh!t.


  • #3009
    joe_99
    Closed Accounts Posts: 763 ✭✭✭joe_99


    Michael Dwyer wrote: »
    From a layman's point of view I don't get this.

    Cases have been going up from the 200s, 300s, 400s into the 500s over the last 3 weeks. Deaths have gone up where most days they are 25-36. I can't fathom that beautiful chart with ICU admission increases plummeting. If it's true great. But something doesn't add up, even with so many of our deaths in nursing homes.

    RIP to all.

    We are doing significantly more testing now. More testing more cases. ICU is the true figure to watch. Staying nice and stable


  • #3010
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,195 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Completely agree. They're not even released.

    What's not released?


  • #3011
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    What's not released?
    The charts that were shown at the press conference today by the CMO that allocates the German results to the dates they were taken and shows growth rate is still decreasing.


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  • #3012
    speckle
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,251 ✭✭✭speckle


    JRant wrote: »
    Honestly can't make sense of these numbers.
    264 + 233 =/= 365

    maybe Irish citzens abroad or maybe in transit like ambulances? at one stage the difference was 6 so its got bigger.


  • #3013
    1641
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭1641


    outsourced_ire wrote: »
    As an exercise, I'd be interested to see how things would look if they could be distributed to the dates when they most likely should have been counted, i.e.

    - Look at the dates the samples were taken
    - Look at what the average time it was taking to return results
    - Add the average number of days it was taking to return results to the sample taken date
    - Add the results into those days

    While I don't agree they should be included today as new cases (misleading, skews model, etc.), they still need to be accounted for in some way.

    Yes , they are included in the total number of cases.

    Also, Prof Philip Nolan indicated that they are include in the modelling figures which he presented last Thursday(?) and which are updated weekly. NPHET advise re restrictions etc are informed by this curve (as well as ICU figures, etc).


  • #3014
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    1641 wrote: »
    I think you are trying to be Chemical Ali 2. You know perfectly well that the German samples are from historical cases. Yes they should be included in our totals but as regards the ongoing trend they are not only meaningless but distorting.

    Can you provide a breakdown of when these German cases are from? Cases per day would be great.


  • #3015
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Can you provide a breakdown of when these German cases are from? Cases per day would be great.
    If you head onto RTE twitter or RTE player and re-watch the news now conference the CMO showed when they're from. You're living up to your username.


  • #3016
    Mwengwe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 454 ✭✭Mwengwe


    May have been off-base with earlier comments about supermarket workers

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/12/grocery-worker-fear-death-coronavirus/


  • #3017
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    If you head onto RTE twitter or RTE player and re-watch the news now conference the CMO showed when they're from. You're living up to your username.

    Do you have the dates for these cases? You seem to be an expert.


  • #3018
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    I've found the charts the CMO used in the press conference.

    First image shows growth of cases including German results WITHOUT attributing them to the time they were taken.
    509449.png

    Second image shows growth of cases including German results while attributing them to exactly the time they were taken.
    509450.png


  • #3019
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    Do you have the dates for these cases? You seem to be an expert.
    Nah I'll let the CMO deal with the dates. You seem to disagree with everything he says.


  • #3020
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,453 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    archive of briefings here https://www.pscp.tv/rtenews/


  • #3021
    Fr_Dougal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,166 ✭✭✭Fr_Dougal


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I've found the charts the CMO used in the press conference.

    First image shows growth of cases including German results WITHOUT attributing them to the time they were taken.
    [IMG]https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/attachment.php?attachmentid=509449&stc=1&d=1586803024[/IMG Second image shows growth of cases including German results while attributing them to exactly the time they were taken.[/img]attachment.php?attachmentid=509450&stc=1&d=1586803034IMG]

    Super, thanks. Genuinely appreciate it.


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  • #3022
    Panrich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,186 ✭✭✭Panrich


    paddythere wrote: »
    The figures arent skewed though, its just dumb people not reading properly

    The way that these figures are being presented is the problem. It's like a transition year project. If they are adding all these 'old' german tests and then having two sets of figures, then you can understand why people are getting confused.

    I said earlier, what is required are figures that show positives by test date. I suspect that this would not suit the narrative that the HSE want to portray though and would show that testing has not been as smooth as they would like us to think.


  • #3023
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,453 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    I've found the charts the CMO used in the press conference.

    First image shows growth of cases including German results WITHOUT attributing them to the time they were taken.
    509449.png

    Second image shows growth of cases including German results while attributing them to exactly the time they were taken.
    509450.png
    have you got that right did he not show 3 graphs


  • #3024
    GM228
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,917 ✭✭✭GM228


    zinfandel wrote: »
    My brother got a positive test result today from a test done 20 days ago plus the 5 days he was waiting for the test, he has long since recovered. Those German test results are really skewing the figures.

    They only skew the numbers when you look at daily or average % increases, otherwise they don't as the numbers are cumulative.


  • #3025
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,917 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    expectationlost wrote: »
    have you got that right did he not show 3 graphs
    Can only find 2 on the RTE replay.

    https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1249744563004153857?s=20


  • #3026
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,990 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    French president Emmanuel Macron has said that lockdown in his country is to be extended until 11 May.


  • #3027
    1641
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,342 ✭✭✭1641


    Mwengwe wrote: »
    May have been off-base with earlier comments about supermarket workers

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/12/grocery-worker-fear-death-coronavirus/


    I don't know about this epidemic but shop workers were one of the high death groups in the 1918-19 Spanish Flu in Ireland.

    But young adults in general were particularly hit in those mortality stakes - unlike Covid.


  • #3028
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    French president Emmanuel Macron has said that lockdown in his country is to be extended until 11 May.

    When did they first go into lockdown?


  • #3029
    TheDoctor
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,990 ✭✭✭TheDoctor


    Stheno wrote: »
    When did they first go into lockdown?

    17 March


  • #3030
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    TheDoctor wrote: »
    17 March

    Hmm doesn't bode well


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  • #3031
    messin doorman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69 ✭✭messin doorman


    Two cents here -

    Simon Harris well able to tell us earlier today what the figures would have been but for the preventative action taken (which was an implicit invitation to the public to take it that the government is handling this in a really stellar manner). Figures would have reached in the near future 70k diagnoses per day had we taken limited preventative action or 120k diagnoses per day had we not taken action.

    Surprises me that he’s able to point to these really specific numbers when it is politically expedient for him to do so, but he’s not able to commit to future numbers and dates for specific release of restrictions.

    I believe that the present crisis is being treated by him as a great opportunity for him to look ministerial. Same for Leo - a few days ago breaking out Séamus Heany quotes simply to tell us that restrictions are being extended for three weeks.

    Career politicians at their absolute worst. Shallow fig leaves without heart or courage.


This discussion has been closed.
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