The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

Seth Brundle · 13-04-2020 02:01PM

Michael Gove's daughter shows symptoms and is deemed sufficiently privileged to get a test (unlike so many in the NHS).
Gove himself was "spotted jogging just days into the two-week period when a person should stay home if a member of their household has displayed symptoms"
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-michael-gove-given-special-permission-to-test-daughter-with-covid-19-symptoms-11972552

Joe_ Public · 13-04-2020 02:03PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Michael Gove's daughter shows symptoms and is deemed sufficiently privileged to get a test (unlike so many in the NHS).
Gove himself was "spotted jogging just days into the two-week period when a person should stay home if a member of their household has displayed symptoms"
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-michael-gove-given-special-permission-to-test-daughter-with-covid-19-symptoms-11972552

It's good to be the king.

bilston · 13-04-2020 02:22PM

Number of deaths down again in England, but given it is Easter it is unlikely to be a true reflection at this stage, we may not get that until Wednesday.

England, alone, has now passed the grim 10,000 death toll.

Dave0301 · 13-04-2020 02:28PM

bilston wrote: »

Number of deaths down again in England, but given it is Easter it is unlikely to be a true reflection at this stage, we may not get that until Wednesday.

England, alone, has now passed the grim 10,000 death toll.

Another 667 coronavirus patients have died in hospitals in England, taking the total in the country to 10,261.

Of the latest deaths recorded, 118 occurred on 12 April while 537 took place between 1 April and 11 April.

The remaining 12 deaths happened last month, going back as far as 26 March.

Patients were aged between 17 and 101 - and 40 of those (aged 37 to 98) had no underlying health conditions.

From Sky News.

The bolded above I have seen reported before, giving the impression that those deaths all occurred in the previous 24 hours.

Given the nature of how they are being reported, and the omission of care home deaths, it will make discerning when the peak is difficult.

I wonder is this similar for other European countries? As in, is there such a lag in the official numbers.

RasTa · 13-04-2020 02:30PM

There have been 667 new deaths recorded of people who tested positive for Covid-19

They are cooking the numbers

Water John · 13-04-2020 02:32PM

This article shows that about half the deaths in countries happens in care homes.
Does this mean we can take the daily figures for the UK and double them?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests

Joe_ Public · 13-04-2020 02:54PM

Water John wrote: »

This article shows that about half the deaths in countries happens in care homes.
Does this mean we can take the daily figures for the UK and double them?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/13/half-of-coronavirus-deaths-happen-in-care-homes-data-from-eu-suggests

Seems hard to say but definitely very significantly higher. Recall from the ONS figures 10-12 days ago that they concluded 90% of uk deaths were taking place in hospitals but that could have changed if less care home patients were subsequently being admitted. We dont know for sure. But one startling figure from that ons report was that in hospital deaths were about 60-70% higher than official figures suggested so that gives an idea of the scale. That only covered up to 26 march iirc so difficult to know exactly how things changed thereafter.

Enzokk · 13-04-2020 03:02PM

Dave0301 wrote: »

From Sky News.

The bolded above I have seen reported before, giving the impression that those deaths all occurred in the previous 24 hours.

Given the nature of how they are being reported, and the omission of care home deaths, it will make discerning when the peak is difficult.

I wonder is this similar for other European countries? As in, is there such a lag in the official numbers.

So it is useless numbers really, only for public consumption to paint a picture that someone is looking to paint.

devnull · 13-04-2020 03:03PM

RasTa wrote: »

There have been 667 new deaths recorded of people who tested positive for Covid-19

They are cooking the numbers

Weekend effect - tomorrow's numbers will be affected too.

A lot of Trusts don't report deaths on weekends or public holidays, so numbers over the next few days have to be taken with a pinch of salt. There's likely to be a massive spike on Wednesday's data which will see all the delayed deaths from Friday to Monday finally reported.

Date | Hospital Deaths
19/03/2020|

41

|
20/03/2020 |

33

|
21/03/2020 |

56

|
22/03/2020 |

48

|
23/03/2020 |

54

|
24/03/2020 |

87

|
25/03/2020 |

41

|
26/03/2020 |

115

|
27/03/2020 |

181

|
28/03/2020 |

260

|
29/03/2020 |

209

|
30/03/2020 |

180

|
31/03/2020 |

381

|
01/04/2020 |

563

|
02/04/2020 |

569

|
03/04/2020 |

684

|
04/04/2020 |

708

|
05/04/2020 |

621

|
06/04/2020 |

439

|
07/04/2020 |

786

|
08/04/2020 |

938

|
09/04/2020 |

881

|
10/04/2020 |

980

|
11/04/2020 |

917

|
12/04/2020 |

737

|
13/04/2020 |

717*

|

Bold = Reporting period included Weekend or Public Holiday
* = Based on adding four nations totals together

robinph · 13-04-2020 03:22PM

RasTa wrote: »

There have been 667 new deaths recorded of people who tested positive for Covid-19

They are cooking the numbers

As long as the numbers are being cooked in the same way this month as they were last month then it doesn't massively matter. If the errors in reporting are staying the same then the numbers are still useful.

Would obviously be more useful if the numbers were more accurate, but it seems to be fairly common that the numbers are fairly dodgy in all countries initially for each day and different things being counted at different points. I guess there will be another set of updated ONS stats for a couple of weeks ago due out tomorrow(?) which will correct the numbers previously released.

Enzokk · 13-04-2020 03:37PM

robinph wrote: »

As long as the numbers are being cooked in the same way this month as they were last month then it doesn't massively matter. If the errors in reporting are staying the same then the numbers are still useful.

Would obviously be more useful if the numbers were more accurate, but it seems to be fairly common that the numbers are fairly dodgy in all countries initially for each day and different things being counted at different points. I guess there will be another set of updated ONS stats for a couple of weeks ago due out tomorrow(?) which will correct the numbers previously released.

I don't get it though, they are only reporting the deaths of those that has tested positive in hospital. Every ward will know who is positive and if they die then it is one more to the total. So either the system of reporting is so cumbersome that is needs overhaul and replacing, or they are not reporting the numbers as they are coming through. What other explanations could it be that deaths that happened last month are being reported in today's numbers? Maybe it is time to have 2 numbers, the deaths that occurred in the last 24 hours and the reported deaths due to Covid-19, which would be easier to see if the system in reporting deaths in a crises in the UK is fit for purpose.

RobMc59 · 13-04-2020 03:50PM

It was encouraging to hear the premiers of New Zealand and Portugal praising the nurses who watched over Boris Johnson who both said they treat everyone the same.
I don't agree with Johnson's brexit shenanigans but he is a true battler and obviously highly regarded around the world(with the exception of the boards anti British brigade of course!)
It's reported regularly and is common knowledge here in the UK that the daily death figures don't include everyone and collating data from the four areas of the UK is maybe a couple of days behind but does adjust as the week progresses-unfortunately,this hasn't stopped a few posters here repeating the same dross day after day-It would be a shame if this thread became just another anti British echo chamber-at what point does a healthy interest in Ireland's nearest neighbour become a bizarre obsession with every aspect of Britain's every move?

PommieBast · 13-04-2020 03:55PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't get it though, they are only reporting the deaths of those that has tested positive in hospital. Every ward will know who is positive and if they die then it is one more to the total.

Given the circumstances would not surprise me if they are shifting people to the morgue as they die but then filling in death certificates in batches. NHS IT projects are often unfit for purpose at the best of times so would not surprise me if they have gone back to pen-and-paper notes.

pablo128 · 13-04-2020 03:58PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

It was encouraging to hear the premiers of New Zealand and Portugal praising the nurses who watched over Boris Johnson who both said they treat everyone the same.
I don't agree with Johnson's brexit shenanigans but he is a true battler and obviously highly regarded around the world(with the exception of the boards anti British brigade of course!)
It's reported regularly and is common knowledge here in the UK that the daily death figures don't include everyone and collating data from the four areas of the UK is maybe a couple of days behind but does adjust as the week progresses-unfortunately,this hasn't stopped a few posters here repeating the same dross day after day-It would be a shame if this thread became just another anti British echo chamber-at what point does a healthy interest in Ireland's nearest neighbour become a bizarre obsession with every aspect of Britain's every move?

Less of the paddy bashing please. There are legitimate concerns at how the UK are handling this pandemic. Plenty of people including my family have relatives, including NHS staff, in the UK.

robinph · 13-04-2020 04:00PM

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't get it though, they are only reporting the deaths of those that has tested positive in hospital. Every ward will know who is positive and if they die then it is one more to the total. So either the system of reporting is so cumbersome that is needs overhaul and replacing, or they are not reporting the numbers as they are coming through. What other explanations could it be that deaths that happened last month are being reported in today's numbers? Maybe it is time to have 2 numbers, the deaths that occurred in the last 24 hours and the reported deaths due to Covid-19, which would be easier to see if the system in reporting deaths in a crises in the UK is fit for purpose.

I think the main delay is that the hospital can't report any numbers until the next of kin has been informed.

Joe_ Public · 13-04-2020 04:07PM

I sincerely hope we start to see a true flattening of the curve some day this week, i dont want to see things getting any worse than they already are. Its bad enough as it is.

But this idea of boris the battler, looking the virus in the eye and seeing it off would trouble me as it implies those who didnt manage to quite see it off - including many less privileged than the pm as well as a disproportionate number of nhs workers, many of them with non-british roots - just werent possessed of quite so much of the bulldog spirit to make it. Great that he made it, especially for him and his family, but he's one of the lucky ones, not so much some of those who might be gone due to decisions Johnson's government made.

Enzokk · 13-04-2020 04:12PM

PommieBast wrote: »

Given the circumstances would not surprise me if they are shifting people to the morgue as they die but then filling in death certificates in batches. NHS IT projects are often unfit for purpose at the best of times so would not surprise me if they have gone back to pen-and-paper notes.

That is what happens when you cut costs I suppose. There has to be a lesson there somewhere but I doubt people in charge will listen or act on it though.

robinph wrote: »

I think the main delay is that the hospital can't report any numbers until the next of kin has been informed.

What is the purpose of waiting? Surely the scale of the pandemic means the risk of people finding out their family member is one of the 1000 that has died that day from the reporting of the number only is close to 0%?

robinph · 13-04-2020 04:54PM

Enzokk wrote: »

What is the purpose of waiting? Surely the scale of the pandemic means the risk of people finding out their family member is one of the 1000 that has died that day from the reporting of the number only is close to 0%?

Think it's purely down to how its always been done for those reasons. No idea if it would be a legal thing (in which case that's not going to change without parliament) or just the way it's done and nobody has pushed enough from on high to change it.

Enzokk · 13-04-2020 05:57PM

robinph wrote: »

Think it's purely down to how its always been done for those reasons. No idea if it would be a legal thing (in which case that's not going to change without parliament) or just the way it's done and nobody has pushed enough from on high to change it.

I wonder how it was done during the Iraq and Afghanistan invasions? If they can release the numbers though it seems like a very tenuous reason why it would cause a delay in reporting accurate numbers.

Channel 4 News will focus on the care homes and the deaths not being reported because the persons who have died has not been tested.

https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1249726979529748480?s=20

Edited: Will start at 7pm I believe.

RobMc59 · 13-04-2020 06:20PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I sincerely hope we start to see a true flattening of the curve some day this week, i dont want to see things getting any worse than they already are. Its bad enough as it is.

But this idea of boris the battler, looking the virus in the eye and seeing it off would trouble me as it implies those who didnt manage to quite see it off - including many less privileged than the pm as well as a disproportionate number of nhs workers, many of them with non-british roots - just werent possessed of quite so much of the bulldog spirit to make it. Great that he made it, especially for him and his family, but he's one of the lucky ones, not so much some of those who might be gone due to decisions Johnson's government made.

Earlier this year,I visited sick relatives at my local hospital Arrowe Park here on the Wirral and Our Lady of Lourdes in Drogheda.I found them very similar,both well staffed with many non EU(asian)staff and both with reduced administrative staff at the weekend.
The measures in place here in the UK are beginning to work which can be seen in the reduction of fatalities .You and your fellow unbiased posters say the whole of the UK (government,NHS and media) are all 'cooking the books ' and you are the only ones telling the truth which I find ridiculous.As regards boris's 'battling British bulldog spirit'-I'd say anyone who comes through what he has is a battler(ICU etc)..How else would you describe it?

13-04-2020 06:23PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Earlier this year,I visited sick relatives at my local hospital Arrowe Park here on the Wirral and Our Lady of Lourdes in Drogheda.I found them very similar,both well staffed with many non EU(asian)staff and both with reduced administrative staff at the weekend.
The measures in place here in the UK are beginning to work which can be seen in the reduction of fatalities .You and your fellow unbiased posters say the whole of the UK (government,NHS and media) are all 'cooking the books ' and you are the only ones telling the truth which I find ridiculous.As regards boris's 'battling British bulldog spirit'-I'd say anyone who comes through what he has is a battler(ICU etc)..How else would you describe it?

Have you not read the rest of the threads?

Every country is cooking the books.

Every country except Ireland that is.

Water John · 13-04-2020 06:35PM

The figures in Ireland are; two thirds patients die in hospital, one third in nursing homes and other residential settings.
Clear accurate figures. That is all that is expected. I suspect with the way the disease has spread, if Ireland simply went on the day tot day announcement with hospital only, and added others much later, the death rate would by now be falling, giving us a false narrative.
That's why accurate figures matter.

13-04-2020 06:40PM

Water John wrote: »

The figures in Ireland are; two thirds patients die in hospital, one third in nursing homes and other residential settings.
Clear accurate figures. That is all that is expected. I suspect with the way the disease has spread, if Ireland simply went on the day tot day announcement with hospital only, and added others much later, the death rate would by now be falling, giving us a false narrative.
That's why accurate figures matter.

Yet the death rate doesn’t match the increase in deaths registered on rip.ie.

With the huge delay in testing, it is logical that people are dieing having not tested positive and are therefore not counted.

Joe_ Public · 13-04-2020 06:44PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

Earlier this year,I visited sick relatives at my local hospital Arrowe Park here on the Wirral and Our Lady of Lourdes in Drogheda.I found them very similar,both well staffed with many non EU(asian)staff and both with reduced administrative staff at the weekend.
The measures in place here in the UK are beginning to work which can be seen in the reduction of fatalities .You and your fellow unbiased posters say the whole of the UK (government,NHS and media) are all 'cooking the books ' and you are the only ones telling the truth which I find ridiculous.As regards boris's 'battling British bulldog spirit'-I'd say anyone who comes through what he has is a battler(ICU etc)..How else would you describe it?

"Cooking the books."

If you want you can trawl through any post i made and show where i ever said or even inferred that. They are underreporting the numbers. Just facts.

I describe boris johnson as mostly lucky to have his privilege and status to have accessed the best care available and good luck to him for that. Not every briton so lucky however.

Joe_ Public · 13-04-2020 06:45PM

Aegir wrote: »

Yet the death rate doesn’t match the increase in deaths registered on rip.ie.

With the huge delay in testing, it is logical that people are dieing having not tested positive and are therefore not counted.

The deaths registered on rip.ie!

That's science folks!!

13-04-2020 07:05PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

The deaths registered on rip.ie!

That's science folks!!

Look away folks, nothing to see here.

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-deaths-5073495-Apr2020/

Donald Trump · 13-04-2020 07:08PM

RobMc59 wrote: »

It was encouraging to hear the premiers of New Zealand and Portugal praising the nurses who watched over Boris Johnson who both said they treat everyone the same.
I don't agree with Johnson's brexit shenanigans but he is a true battler and obviously highly regarded around the world(with the exception of the boards anti British brigade of course!)
It's reported regularly and is common knowledge here in the UK that the daily death figures don't include everyone and collating data from the four areas of the UK is maybe a couple of days behind but does adjust as the week progresses-unfortunately,this hasn't stopped a few posters here repeating the same dross day after day-It would be a shame if this thread became just another anti British echo chamber-at what point does a healthy interest in Ireland's nearest neighbour become a bizarre obsession with every aspect of Britain's every move?

The mistakes of the UK have consequences for Ireland. That is why people were shouting on here for them to get their act together much sooner.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/curious-tale-of-one-countys-covid-19-caseload-39121412.html

Enzokk · 13-04-2020 07:10PM

Aegir wrote: »

Yet the death rate doesn’t match the increase in deaths registered on rip.ie.

With the huge delay in testing, it is logical that people are dieing having not tested positive and are therefore not counted.

That could be the case. Have you confirmed the deaths on the days they happened and not registered on the website and discounted the double postings on rip.ie and compared it to the other years?

13-04-2020 07:14PM

Enzokk wrote: »

That could be the case. Have you confirmed the deaths on the days they happened and not registered on the website and discounted the double postings on rip.ie and compared it to the other years?

Read the article. It seems to be gathering speed.

I’m sure the FG shills will soon start pointing eastwards though to deflect attention.

RobMc59 · 13-04-2020 07:15PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

The mistakes of the UK have consequences for Ireland. That is why people were shouting on here for them to get their act together much sooner.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/curious-tale-of-one-countys-covid-19-caseload-39121412.html

Apologies donald,I had heard it suggested you were shouting because you`re a loud mouthed buffoon who talks through his ring piece,but obviously that is purely anecdotal.

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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