The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yeah lockdowns are effective, i think you can say that much. I occasionally see comments to the effect we dont know anything because we are in an unprecedented situation. But there have been global pandemics before and lockdowns have been shown to be effective all the way back to 1918. The sooner, the better.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Lockdowns in overcrowded households in highly populated areas only increase the rate of virus transmissions in the community and affect poorer people.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Obviously more measures are required like mass testing, contract tracing and having a health system that wont break under the strain. "A blunt instrument", i dont know how many would agree with that. What are you advocating exactly?

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

There are two important factors regarding population. The density of the people. The density of the people.

bob mcbob wrote: »

Story in the Sunday Times today (behind paywall) so I cannot provide link. It is about Austria being the first to lift the lockdown restrictions. There is a quote from one of the experts advising the government there.

"The goal, as across Europe, was ultimately herd immunity but this is constrained by the number of ICU beds. Countries such as Austria with a larger number of beds could relax the rules faster the Britain where the health service could more quickly become overwhelmed"

When Austria was shut down three weeks ago to stop the spread of Covid-19, florist Zafar Ergashev had to close his two shops in Vienna and throw away €2,500 (£2,200) worth of flowers he had hoped to sell in the run-up to Easter.

From Tuesday — to his relief — they will be open again, alongside small shops, DIY stores and garden centres across the country as its conservative government relaxes the lockdown.

From the start of next month, department stores, shopping centres and hair salons will join them, with restaurants and hotels back working a couple of weeks later.


Europe is tentatively reopening for business. Three days ago, Austria’s northern neighbours in the Czech Republic lifted the lockdown on some shops.

Not everyone is happy, however. Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, enjoyed a surge in public support during the initial stages of the crisis when she closed borders, as well as theatres, museums and shopping centres — and schools.

But as infection rates fall, she has been attacked by parents for insisting that primary and nursery schools reopen on Wednesday. More than 35,000 have joined a Facebook group claiming that her Social Democratic minority government is using children as guinea pigs — a charge it denies.


While their unlocking policies differ, Austria, Denmark and the Czech Republic appear able to act first because they were several days earlier than other European countries in imposing lockdowns. Their containment measures have also been helped by having small populations. Their moves are being closely monitored.

“Countries are at different stages, but there will always be an interplay between relaxing the rules, seeing infections rise and then shutting down again when you see they are rising too far. This will be the same everywhere,” said Professor Elisabeth Puchhammer-Stöckl, head of virology at the Medical University of Vienna and a member of an expert panel advising the Austrian government.

The aim, as across Europe, she said, was an eventual move to “herd immunity”, but this was constrained by the number of intensive care beds.

“The limitation is the health system,” she said. “Many people in badly affected areas such as Lombardy are dying because they cannot get an intensive care bed and would otherwise have survived. We do not want to get into this awful situation.”

Countries such as Austria, with a larger number of such beds, could relax the rules faster than those, such as Britain, whose health systems could more quickly become overwhelmed, she said.

Although the continent is beginning to loosen up, the new normal will still be very different from everyday life of just a few weeks ago: social distancing will have to be maintained and large gatherings, including sporting fixtures, will remain off limits.

Many borders, including Austria’s, will remain closed for the time being to non-residents.

In an about turn, masks — initially discouraged by authorities — are being encouraged, and increasingly made compulsory. Sebastian Kurz, 33, Austria’s prime minister, arrived at a news conference last week wearing a mask and spoke from behind a plexiglass screen.

He said his government’s decision to take early tough measures against the virus last month gave it “the opportunity to get out of this crisis faster”. But he warned that people must continue to minimise personal contact — particularly over Easter, adding: “We will very closely monitor the number of new infections and immediately pull the emergency brake if need be.”

Amid growing concern at the economic impact of the lockdown, Germany could be one of the next countries to move: Chancellor Angela Merkel, 65, is due on Wednesday to discuss with leaders of its 16 länder (states) a phased relaxation in rules, perhaps from April 19.

Germany’s influential Academy of Sciences Leopoldina is expected to propose a gradual reopening of schools, but starting with older children, who can be better relied on to wear masks, with primary schools remaining closed. In one state Saxony, older children will start returning from April 20 to take final exams. The availability of masks will also determine how quickly shops open.

In France, where President Emmanuel Macron, 42, is due to address the nation tomorrow, there is also talk of loosening. Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, has urged that this should be accompanied by mass screening, coupled with “immunisation certificates” for those who have had the virus and recovered.

By contrast, Italy, the European country first hit by the virus, rebuffed business calls last week for a “roadmap” back to work. “Scientists are telling us not to ease the restrictive measures,” said Giuseppe Conte, the prime minister, who on Friday extended the lockdown to May 3.

In a small concession, stationers, bookshops and those selling children’s clothes can open from Tuesday.

Conte, 55, along with most other European leaders, has been enjoying rising poll ratings, thanks to the tough measures they have introduced, though Macron’s government, in particular, has been criticised for the country’s shortage of masks and other basic equipment.

Any relaxation of the rules will nevertheless be welcomed because of the damaging impact on lifestyles and small businesses.

Rainer Will, head of Austria’s retail association, said more than 40% of his members would have gone bust within two weeks if the full lockdown had continued. “But in the interest of fairness and for health reasons we would have preferred it if bigger shops, too, could open from April 14 since that would spread customers more widely,” he said.

As he prepares to open his flower shops, Ergashev, 33, said: “We were very happy when we heard the news. It’s good for people spending a lot of time at home to have flowers.”

His five staff have been put on short-term working and he reckons the shutdown has cost him €8,000-€10,000. “It has been very difficult for us. Easter is normally one of our busiest times, but we have had three weddings cancelled.”

Denmark’s conservative opposition wanted, as in Austria, to first lift curbs on hairdressers, cafes and other small businesses. The government’s decision to reopen its schools is more controversial.

Mette Wittenhoff Jensen, 47, a mother of four from North Jutland, said she would not send her two youngest children back to school on Wednesday, after the elder of the two, aged 12, said she was worried about bringing the virus home.

“My daughter suddenly started expressing her fears and concerns: if she infected me, her father or little brother and we went to hospital and died, would that be her fault?” said Jensen. “I told her that it would never be her fault if any of us were infected, but I think as a mother then neither my children nor anyone else’s should have this responsibility on their shoulders.”

Prime Minister Frederiksen likened the relaxation of controls to “walking a tightrope”. “If we stand still along the way we could fall and if we go too fast it can go wrong,” she said.


Social distancing by moose and drive-by burials

Albania People making a mobile call must first listen to a recording of the prime minister, Edi Rama, telling them how to wash their hands.

Czech Republic Prague’s mayor wants the homeless to lock down in its largest brothel.

France The mayor of Béziers has removed all public benches to stop people congregating.

Germany Holidaymakers and second-home owners are posing as local handymen to reach Sylt and other islands off the north coast.

Holland Funerals are restricted, so the Dutch are holding drive-by burials and canal boat processions.

Italy Drones with heat sensors measure the temperature of people out walking. If someone has a high temperature, they are sent home.

Slovakia Igor Matovic, the prime minister, is considering a national opinion poll on “turning Slovakia off completely” for three weeks.

Sweden Health authorities in the northern region of Norrbotten have told locals to stay at least a moose-length away from one another.

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Ok i can see the point. I think the purpose of the lockdown is reducing the rate of the spread. If you are locked in with a family you might spread it to 3-4 people but not the multiples you might meet on your daily travels. If lockdown doesn't work, there's got to be something else? All i know is there is lot of data showing benefits of lockdowns going back to Spanish flu time but i guess they have to be done in a certain way or effect is limited.

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

Scotland:

Total confirmed cases: 5,912 (+322)
Total deaths with confirmed COVID-19: 566 (+24)

dfx- wrote: »

The whole debacle everywhere is a failure in mass indiscriminate testing. It is the cornerstone of all successful approaches. You don't need a lockdown or see a wave if you isolate those who have it by testing them early on and tracing every contact.

All of the other things, lockdown, airport closures, health service, PPE, masks etc are all secondary options and signs of failure. The illness is already dug in by then.

Even when they do approach asking questions, it is always from political correspondents about the political 'target' of 100,000 a day in mid-March rather than what they did or didn't do in December, January and February

bob mcbob wrote: »

It is interesting that even the NRS numbers, where Covid was mentioned on the death cert, could be an understatement.

On 5th April, the average number of deaths in the last 5 years was 1098 but this year on this date, there were 1741 deaths but only 282 were related to Covid. That leaves 361 deaths which is a very high figure over the average. I will check out the next update to see if this trend continues.

VinLieger wrote: »

Lets talk about skewing the figures, the UK is not recording deaths from covid unless they have tested positive prior to dying.

rossie1977 wrote: »

Not recording deaths outside hospital and as we see here nursing homes are badly hit.

Potentially the UK is the worst effected country in Europe, even the government are beginning to admit it.