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The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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Comments

  • #2762
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,448 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    theological wrote: »
    Lainey Doyle is another person who doesn't realise that we can't simply just compare the numbers because Ireland is behind the UK in the pandemic. I stopped reading the thread as soon as the inaccurate comparisons in ratios started. Similar to what Professor Moriarty offered here a few days ago.

    So your belief is that Ireland is behind the UK therefore Ireland will match the UK rates and a comparison at the moment is flawed? Well look at the testing figures, Ireland (which is behind the UK in time) has tested more people than the UK. Ireland, in acting earlier, will have less deaths. You should have continued to read as there are many many valid statements in that thread


  • #2763
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    You mean the figures that were revised down because they put the wrong data into the model?

    I'm satisfied the government have been listening to what the medical experts are telling them and I'm confident that the current approach will save lives and is already bearing fruit.

    I'm not a massive fan of the desire for point scoring.
    A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »
    So your belief is that Ireland is behind the UK therefore Ireland will match the UK rates and a comparison at the moment is flawed? Well look at the testing figures, Ireland (which is behind the UK in time) has tested more people than the UK. Ireland, in acting earlier, will have less deaths. You should have continued to read as there are many many valid statements in that thread

    Not necessarily. There could be other factors such as population density that could account for a quicker spread in Britain.

    It is pretty hard to conclusively prove that the very minor differences in policy have resulted in significant more deaths notwithstanding other factors.

    It is easier to provide more tests per capita in a smaller country than in a bigger country. I'm willing to give Matt Hancock until the end of the month to come true to his word. Then I will be as critical as you are.


  • #2764
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,448 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    theological wrote: »
    Not necessarily. There could be other factors such as population density that could account for a quicker spread in Britain.

    Population density is definitely a factor and that factor should have informed decision making which evidently it did not


  • #2765
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »
    Population density is definitely a factor and that factor should have informed decision making which evidently it did not

    There are two important factors regarding population. The density of the people. The density of the people.


  • #2766
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Herd immunity, low testing rates, later lockdown, concerts and sporting events going ahead, leaders claiming nowt to be worried about, keep tubes and construction sites going etc etc.

    theological: "very minor differences in policy"


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  • #2767
    manonboard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭manonboard


    bob mcbob wrote: »
    I don't know if you have seen this yet but it certainly gives a clear view about how things are at the coal face of fighting this virus.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52196815

    I cannot imagine how I would react being in this situation

    That was truly heart breaking to read. It was so repetitive and even detached that you could clearly see the author has experience just too much. I dont know how he could try so hard in such odds, i feel so sorry for him and so much pride for him.

    "Not one of the 12 people suspected to have died of Covid-19 on Anthony's shift had been tested for coronavirus. As a result, their deaths were not included in the official coronavirus death toll in New York last Sunday, which stood at 594."

    Thats just scary. Im seeing stuff like this all the time. So much is being unreported. Its such a shame on a government that allows it. Keeping numbers down artifically.


  • #2768
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    manonboard wrote: »
    That was truly heart breaking to read. It was so repetitive and even detached that you could clearly see the author has experience just too much. I dont know how he could try so hard in such odds, i feel so sorry for him and so much pride for him.

    "Not one of the 12 people suspected to have died of Covid-19 on Anthony's shift had been tested for coronavirus. As a result, their deaths were not included in the official coronavirus death toll in New York last Sunday, which stood at 594."

    Thats just scary. Im seeing stuff like this all the time. So much is being unreported. Its such a shame on a government that allows it. Keeping numbers down artifically.

    Even worse is a government that under-reports in plain sight but is defended here. Kind of pathetic really.


  • #2769
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Herd immunity, low testing rates, later lockdown, concerts and sporting events going ahead, leaders claiming nowt to be worried about, keep tubes and construction sites going etc etc.

    theological: "very minor differences in policy"

    Yes they were very minor and very difficult to attribute to a significant difference in numbers notwithstanding other factors. This is just an assertion.

    I explained why I think the difference in policy wasn't substantial here.


  • #2770
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    theological wrote: »
    Yes they were very minor and very difficult to attribute to a significant difference in numbers notwithstanding other factors. This is just an assertion.

    I explained why I think the difference in policy wasn't substantial here.

    I'm not going back over your previous posts. Lots of time to waste right now but listening to stuck records still not very appealing.

    Herd immunity to mitigation just a "very minor policy change." You sound a bit like Alok Sharma this morning, this was a pandemic, unprecedented, there wasnt really much we could do, just put a few minor things in place that won't make much difference. Sorry if you believe there were failings.


  • #2771
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,061 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    I see herd immunity is making a comeback somewhat as a way to defeat the virus. But surely this assumes that it would even work on Covid-19 and seeing as we have only had 100 days so far of this pandemic it seems premature to assume that those who had the virus will be immune to it in the future. We just don't know right now. It could be that it is the way to go and the UK will be ahead of the world, but what if they are wrong about this?

    In any case the main takeaway for me is that investment in your health service is the most important factor to fight this disease. We have been neglecting the HSE for almost a decade. The nurses here had to strike to get a pay rise just recently and beds that were cut during the GFC has not been replaced. These factors will ensure a negative outcome and that is where we have been lacking.


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  • #2772
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,061 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    And for some variety, here is a thread about the Greek response to the crises. Seems like for once they have bucked the trend and actually reacted well and early to the outbreak. That makes a surprising change when you think of Greece and crises in the last decade.

    https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1248658189391933448?s=20

    https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1248659796020125698?s=20

    https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1248660133300842509?s=20

    https://twitter.com/bopinion/status/1248660469168115712?s=20


  • #2773
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Enzokk wrote: »
    I see herd immunity is making a comeback somewhat as a way to defeat the virus. But surely this assumes that it would even work on Covid-19 and seeing as we have only had 100 days so far of this pandemic it seems premature to assume that those who had the virus will be immune to it in the future. We just don't know right now. It could be that it is the way to go and the UK will be ahead of the world, but what if they are wrong about this?

    In any case the main takeaway for me is that investment in your health service is the most important factor to fight this disease. We have been neglecting the HSE for almost a decade. The nurses here had to strike to get a pay rise just recently and beds that were cut during the GFC has not been replaced. These factors will ensure a negative outcome and that is where we have been lacking.

    I would say spot on. Investment in healthcare is one of the biggest takeaways (as if it needed to take a crisis for penny to drop). One of the stats really struck me last week: Germany had more ICU beds lying vacant than England had available in its entire system. Think about that.

    Sweden probably the interesting case when it comes to herd immunity. I dont know if we'll ever say the uk could have been ahead of the curve when the consensus was it was going to kill 100s of 1000s. The herd immunity disciples had assumed it would only affect a few 1000 pensioners who hadnt cocooned themselves effectively enough.


  • #2774
    timetogo1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 893 ✭✭✭timetogo1


    Dave0301 wrote: »
    You do realise that in the months ahead when there is a full reckoning of how the UK deaths (including numbers in non-hospital settings) compare to other European countries that you won't be able to use this excuse to defend the steps taken by the UK government?

    They are already trending to be the worst hit European country without those extra deaths included.

    Well theos been using it for about a month now. The goalposts for theo keep moving two weeks into the future without ever looking back and noticing that the argument didn't work a month ago so nobody is believing it now.


  • #2775
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    I'm not going back over your previous posts. Lots of time to waste right now but listening to stuck records still not very appealing.

    Herd immunity to mitigation just a "very minor policy change." You sound a bit like Alok Sharma this morning, this was a pandemic, unprecedented, there wasnt really much we could do, just put a few minor things in place that won't make much difference. Sorry if you believe there were failings.


    I mean if you don't repeat the same things, I won't in response.

    It'd be great to actually get into the substance of the issues rather than repeating assertions.


  • #2776
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,340 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    This Dominic Rabb fella is a deer in headlights. I never thought id say this buy they need Johnson back.


  • #2777
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    I would say spot on. Investment in healthcare is one of the biggest takeaways (as if it needed to take a crisis for penny to drop). One of the stats really struck me last week: Germany had more ICU beds lying vacant than England had available in its entire system. Think about that.

    Sweden probably the interesting case when it comes to herd immunity. I dont know if we'll ever say the uk could have been ahead of the curve when the consensus was it was going to kill 100s of 1000s. The herd immunity disciples had assumed it would only affect a few 1000 pensioners who hadnt cocooned themselves effectively enough.

    In the context of herd immunity, Sweden's deaths per million rate, though less than the UK, is well ahead of Ireland and twice that of its neighbours Norway, Finland and Denmark.


  • #2778
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    theological wrote: »
    It'd be great to actually get into the substance of the issues rather than repeating assertions.

    Indeed theo. That would be great. Very great indeed.


  • #2779
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    In the context of herd immunity, Sweden's deaths per million rate, though less than the UK, is well ahead of Ireland and twice that of its neighbours Norway, Finland and Denmark.

    Yeah, i wouldnt be very enthusiastic about the swedish approach myself but it does have its followers. I guess they'd argue that if the herd immunity approach was as bad as made out, they'd be faring even worse than they are. It might be their demographic factors make them sufficiently unique to not be a great comparative index anyway.


  • #2780
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,138 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Theological, currently UK is tracking to be one of, if not the, worst effected countries.

    How can that be if the UK did everything right?

    The points made in the tweet thread about the initial action and messages are spot on. The UK government simply did not act fast enough, well I guess they did since they were acting on the basis of herd immunity.

    There is no excuse for not having the testing at levels like Germany. There is no excuse to leave care homes out of any considerations, never mind counting the deaths.

    There is no excuse for the continued lack of PPE. There is no excuse for the refusal to answer questions. There is no excuse for the amateur hour performances from the likes of Patel and Raab.


  • #2781
    blinding
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 7,462 ✭✭✭blinding


    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Theological, currently UK is tracking to be one of, if not the, worst effected countries.

    How can that be if the UK did everything right?

    The points made in the tweet thread about the initial action and messages are spot on. The UK government simply did not act fast enough, well I guess they did since they were acting on the basis of herd immunity.

    There is no excuse for not having the testing at levels like Germany. There is no excuse to leave care homes out of any considerations, never mind counting the deaths.

    There is no excuse for the continued lack of PPE. There is no excuse for the refusal to answer questions. There is no excuse for the amateur hour performances from the likes of Patel and Raab.
    Are you questioning the Irish Government in the Same Manner ? ? Asking for a Friend !


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  • #2782
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Yeah, i wouldnt be very enthusiastic about the swedish approach myself but it does have its followers. I guess they'd argue that if the herd immunity approach was as bad as made out, they'd be faring even worse than they are. It might be their demographic factors make them sufficiently unique to not be a great comparative index anyway.

    People getting angry in Sweden now. Herd immunity had its followers in the UK too. And on this thread.


  • #2783
    meeeeh
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,612 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    Enzokk wrote: »
    And for some variety, here is a thread about the Greek response to the crises. Seems like for once they have bucked the trend and actually reacted well and early to the outbreak. That makes a surprising change when you think of Greece and crises in the ]

    Balkan countries responded very quickly and aggressively. They can't afford not to basically. Everyone is looking at the numbers in Western Europe but at the moment best results seem to be in the other direction. That being said there could be more severe outbreaks later on in the year.


  • #2784
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    People getting angry in Sweden now. Herd immunity had its followers in the UK too. And on this thread.

    Yeah from what i see it's proving very divisive. But i suppose thing is if they ultimately do get back to normality while not having paid too heavy a price in terms of fatalities, some will paint that as a sucess. Lets see how bad things get. I think its the lowest density population in Europe, or close to it, so maybe that's one reason why they're not doing worse at moment. It's an interesting case either way.


  • #2785
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Yeah from what i see it's proving very divisive. But i suppose thing is if they ultimately do get back to normality while not having paid too heavy a price in terms of fatalities, some will paint that as a sucess. Lets see how bad things get. I think its the lowest density population in Europe, or close to it, so maybe that's one reason why they're not doing worse at moment. It's an interesting case either way.

    Interesting article here with some surprising facts. 40% of the population lives alone which helps. However their lack of containment measures (the article also mentions the UK and Netherlands in this regard) has been attacked and 2,300 doctors/scientists wrote a letter condemning the government's approach. Swedish epidemiologists have been scathing. Add in the fact that they have the second lowest rate of ICU beds and things could turn bleak.


  • #2786
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Interesting article here with some surprising facts. 40% of the population lives alone which helps. However their lack of containment measures (the article also mentions the UK and Netherlands in this regard) has been attacked and 2,300 doctors/scientists wrote a letter condemning the government's approach. Swedish epidemiologists have been scathing. Add in the fact that they have the second lowest rate of ICU beds and things could turn bleak.

    It definitely would scare me reading stuff like that and I'm glad to be here rather than there. Surprised for all their health spending they could be so low on icu capacity, that doesnt augur well at all. I do hope they dont get swamped, but i dont think either that it would offer incontrovertible evidence that the same strategy could have worked in, say, the uk.


  • #2787
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    It definitely would scare me reading stuff like that and I'm glad to be here rather than there. Surprised for all their health spending they could be so low on icu capacity, that doesnt augur well at all. I do hope they dont get swamped, but i dont think either that it would offer incontrovertible evidence that the same strategy could have worked in, say, the uk.

    It's already been proven that it's not working. The government are also withholding data. Reminds me of another government.


  • #2788
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    It's already been proven that it's not working. The government are also withholding data. Reminds me of another government.

    Yeah lockdowns are effective, i think you can say that much. I occasionally see comments to the effect we dont know anything because we are in an unprecedented situation. But there have been global pandemics before and lockdowns have been shown to be effective all the way back to 1918. The sooner, the better.


  • #2789
    bob mcbob
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 970 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    manonboard wrote: »
    That was truly heart breaking to read. It was so repetitive and even detached that you could clearly see the author has experience just too much. I dont know how he could try so hard in such odds, i feel so sorry for him and so much pride for him.

    "Not one of the 12 people suspected to have died of Covid-19 on Anthony's shift had been tested for coronavirus. As a result, their deaths were not included in the official coronavirus death toll in New York last Sunday, which stood at 594."

    Thats just scary. Im seeing stuff like this all the time. So much is being unreported. Its such a shame on a government that allows it. Keeping numbers down artifically.

    That is not how I see it. It is obvious that the entire medical system is overwhelmed at the moment. They are trying their best but priority is being given to try and keep people alive at the moment. When it is over, the numbers will be revised significantly upwards (probably doubled).


  • #2790
    Leroy42
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,138 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    blinding wrote: »
    Are you questioning the Irish Government in the Same Manner ? ? Asking for a Friend !

    What difference does it make? If you cannot answer the questions without resorting to whataboutery then you need to ask yourself why?

    But in terms of Ireland, we have more tests per capita, less deaths per capita and we took action sooner.

    You are perfectly entitled, and I would encourage you do do so, question the Irish government over their handling of their handling of this as there are numerous questions they certainly need to answer. But this is the thread about the UK response.

    And we have what is pretty much accepted as a complete rubbish health service and HSE whilst the UK and the world renowned NHS.


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  • #2791
    bob mcbob
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 970 ✭✭✭bob mcbob


    Story in the Sunday Times today (behind paywall) so I cannot provide link. It is about Austria being the first to lift the lockdown restrictions. There is a quote from one of the experts advising the government there.

    "The goal, as across Europe, was ultimately herd immunity but this is constrained by the number of ICU beds. Countries such as Austria with a larger number of beds could relax the rules faster the Britain where the health service could more quickly become overwhelmed"


This discussion has been closed.
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