Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

Reacting to the death toll update from No 10, James Naismith, Director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute and University of Oxford, emphasised that the lowered rise in deaths reported today were likely down to delayed reporting.

“Based on experience of previous weeks, today’s lower number could well arise from reporting delays due to the weekend and bank holiday,” he said. “If so there may be higher daily numbers next week as delayed reported deaths end up in future announcements.

“The UK, with over 10,000 deaths, is one of the worst hit countries in Europe. Even this number is an underestimate due to lags in reporting and counting only hospital deaths. We are not in a macabre competition with other countries, every death, here or elsewhere, leaves a grieving family. We are only approaching the end of the beginning.”

Naismith added that, he expected the government, before it was taking the next steps, “to take and share the most up to date advice from a range of experts across all relevant fields, to identify what we can do better and to see what lessons from elsewhere can be applied here in time to make a difference.”

easypazz wrote: »

Who do you think the gardener and painter might be?

Worst. shamer. post. ever.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's good news but with the caveat around Easter and the bank holiday. Let's hope it continues.

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I was forwarded this this afternoon.

It’s brilliant: A COVID-19 pandemic Model has been developed that can accurately track trajectory of cases and fatalities and gives rational projections of further progression.

I won’t pretend to understand the Mathematics of this let alone explain the Physics Formulae, but I know the guys involved and I know that they understand - So any questions, ask them. (Link below)

This Irish Company Mission Space (based on the University of Limerick Campus, supported by The European Space Agency, the Bernal Institute & UL https://missionspace.one/) is tracking and predicting the Pandemic globally on a daily basis.

The guy who developed this Model (see Mission Space link below or you can also Wiki the guy) is Bjarni Tryggvason, a retired Space Shuttle Astronaut and Co-Founder of Mission Space (University of Limerick Campus). He is a former NRC/CSA astronaut who served as a Payload Specialist on Space Shuttle mission STS-85.


...“This Covid-19 Pandemic Model has proved its ability to replicate the life cycle of the progression of the pandemic…it will be an important tool for supporting developing and planning implementation of strategies for relaxing mitigation as the case counts reach low levels. Because the threshold that triggers unstable growth is low, these strategies must include continued isolation of all those who may be infected. ”.....

....“It has been tested for several countries including China, South Korea, Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, and several provinces in Canada. This model tracks the whole of the pandemic progression on a country or regional basis, including the initial exponential growth phase, through a transition to an exponential decay. The data indicates that the threshold for unstable exponential growth is around 0.1 cases per million population, pointing to this being the case level that must be reached before mitigation strategies can be relaxed. The models efficacy to project the time required to reach this low case count provides an important tool for managing the health care system in its efforts to provide for the fraction of positive cases that require intervention or hospitalization.”

“This points to Ireland identified cases going to about 16,000 and fatalities to around 900. And that Ireland is about 60 days away from seeing the tail end of this. And that assumes good mitigation stays in place throughout.”

Mission Space Limerick: https://missionspace.one/

COVID-19 Pandemic Mathematical Model by Bjarni Tryggvason
https://missionspace.one/summary_report-2020-04-09_pandemic_obj.pdf

Ireland Models: https://missionspace.one/summary_ireland.pdf

bodhrandude wrote: »

I found the charity to that can directly help the Sierra Leone Covid campaign called Medecine Sans Frontieres - MSF which has a drop down list of countries and I implore some of you to do the same, all I could donate was 20 Euro but hopefully it helps their cause. I can't imagine a country with only two ventilators to cope with this crisis. Here is the MSF website. https://donate.msf.org/thankyou.php

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Singapore reports 233 new cases of coronavirus.

Some turnaround for a country that until a few days a go had no new cases and it fully under control and pretty much absent from it's territory.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

12 deaths in the east, 2 in the west. Dublin, Wicklow and Kildare really being hammered it seems.