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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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Comments

  • #1142
    expectationlost
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,493 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    youandme13 wrote: »
    They were phoned and told today..
    first a text to say negative vs and then a call to say positive ?


  • #1143
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    FVP3 wrote: »
    Edgy.

    Ah no, just humour. Relax my warrior friend. It's Saturday night.


  • #1144
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,229 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    Wombatman wrote: »
    Please be very wary of these graphs.

    The % growth is falling but the numbers are still growing.

    As numbers get bigger, growth rate will naturally fall.

    100 to 110 is 10% growth and 10 in number.

    400 to 420 is 5% growth and 20 in number.

    Growth rate lower. Number higher.

    You say all trends are downwards. This is a misrepresentation.

    Yes but in case of for example ICU, people don't stay there indefinitely. They spend an average of 5 days.

    Therefore growth %s are important as you can assume a certain % will also be leaving ICU each day.


  • #1145
    Wombatman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,347 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    FVP3 wrote: »
    If you look at deaths, which can't be hidden, they did.

    No they didn't.

    Give us an example of a country with an exponential death rate.


  • #1146
    youandme13
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 372 ✭✭youandme13


    RentDayBlues wrote: »
    There’s a spam negative text going around

    Oh really thank you, I didn't hear about that before! So alot of people may think they don't have it, go out to the shops or whatever and then find out a few days later again 😑


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  • #1147
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    yes but the increase in cases is still higher, even if the percentage is lower...

    That's not true either. Can you guys read simple graphs?


  • #1148
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,615 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    FVP3 wrote: »
    If you look at deaths, which can't be hidden, they did. And a virus does increase exponentially, especially a novel virus. That is why some predictions were for millions infected by mid April in the UK, and multiple millions in the US. What Leo called the surge..
    exponential growth is good for modelling the first part of the curve, but even with no restrictions on movement it slows down from that rate after a while


  • #1149
    Gretas Gonna Get Ya!
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    FVP3 wrote: »
    The problem is that you, and most of the negative doomsters on this thread, aren't very good at mathematics and therefore you don't recognise what is working or not.

    ( As an aside, for someone who believes that the government should have acted sooner on scientific advice why are you so anti science on climate change? )

    What the hell are talking about?

    Look at our death toll... I mean really look at it... now look at our population and our population density. And the fact that we are an Island nation on the edge of Europe!

    I'm no maths genius, but you don't need to be one to figure out that we are not faring too well in this thing.

    I'm no doom-monger - I'm just honest... but some of you guys are definitely trying too hard to put a positive spin on something that is not positive! I don't see why so many people on here that simply tell the truth, get labelled a doom-monger... it's a very dumb way to categorize people or their points. It's childish tbh.

    (And where did I say anything about climate change... or being anti-science ?? You must be confusing me with someone else!)


  • #1150
    joe_99
    Closed Accounts Posts: 763 ✭✭✭joe_99


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    yes but the increase in cases is still higher, even if the percentage is lower...

    That is not what I am referring to.


  • #1151
    RentDayBlues
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,133 ✭✭✭RentDayBlues


    youandme13 wrote: »
    Oh really thank you, I didn't hear about that before! So alot of people may think they don't have it, go out to the shops or whatever and then find out a few days later again 😑

    I know of 2 people who got a negative text that was formatted differently from the one sent by HSE who were then called and told they were positive


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  • #1152
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Wombatman wrote: »
    No they didn't.

    Give us an example of a country with an exponential death rate.


    All of them in the early stages, the US is a good example.


  • #1153
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    Strazdas wrote: »
    An Oxford University professor (Sarah Gilbert) thinks a vaccine could be ready as soon as September.

    You would really hope so.....lots of gloomy speculation across the board today that restrictions and social distancing could easily go on for another year at least worldwide (causing havoc for economies, travel, tourism and sport).

    Would you really want a vaccine that's been rushed through?


  • #1154
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,855 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Woman bites doctor at Sligo hospital, Jesus.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/woman-accused-of-biting-doctor-at-sligo-hospital-is-remanded-in-custody-1.4227111

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #1155
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    What the hell are talking about?

    Look at our death toll... I mean really look at it... now look at our population and our population density. And the fact that we are an Island nation on the edge of Europe!

    I'm no maths genius, but you don't need to be one to figure out that we are not faring too well in this thing.

    clearly you arent a maths genius.

    I'm no doom-monger - I'm just honest... but some of you guys are definitely trying too hard to put a positive spin on something that is not positive! I don't see why anyone on here that tells the truth, gets labelled a doom-monger... it's a very dumb way to categorize people or their points. It's childish tbh.

    (And where did I say anything about climate change... or being anti-science ?? You must be confusing me with someone else!)

    You dont understand by your own admission, the mathematics here. If we were not in control of these deaths and cases would be much much higher. And that is true everywhere.


  • #1156
    Seamai
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Seamai


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Woman bites doctor at Sligo hospital, Jesus.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/woman-accused-of-biting-doctor-at-sligo-hospital-is-remanded-in-custody-1.4227111

    Put her in a cage.


  • #1157
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    That's some epic cynicism.

    Maybe, just maybe, people want to feel part of the effort. Lighting fires is tradition the night before Easter so it was quite apt I thought

    Yes. For those who still go to church the Easter Vigil would in normal circumstances be taking place tonight which involves lighting a cauldron outdoors and candles indoors during the ceremonies.


  • #1158
    Quantum Erasure
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,615 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    FVP3 wrote: »
    That's not true either. Can you guys read simple graphs?


    ignoring the results from Germany
    480 new cases yesterday, a 7.3% increase

    553 new cases today, but a 5.33% increase...
    7.8 actually, had my numbers wrong...


  • #1159
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Woman bites doctor at Sligo hospital, Jesus.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/crime-and-law/woman-accused-of-biting-doctor-at-sligo-hospital-is-remanded-in-custody-1.4227111

    Do we have the right virus? Thought it was rabies that makes people act crazy.


  • #1160
    SEPT 23 1989
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,039 ✭✭✭✭SEPT 23 1989




  • #1161
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    FVP3 wrote: »
    If you look at deaths, which can't be hidden, they did. And a virus does increase exponentially, especially a novel virus. That is why some predictions were for millions infected by mid April in the UK, and multiple millions in the US. What Leo called the surge.



    Dunno.


    Deaths can't be hidden. What about nursing homes where someone dies with ARD awaiting test results or never got tested. Do they get counted?
    I think not. Given that most deaths have occurred in nursing home settings this would have a significant effect on the death rate. So yeah it can be hidden.


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  • #1162
    Wombatman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,347 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    normanoffside wrote: »
    Yes but in case of for example ICU, people don't stay there indefinitely. They spend an average of 5 days.

    Therefore growth %s are important as you can assume a certain % will also be leaving ICU each day.

    The numbers going in each day are still growing.


  • #1163
    michellie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,691 ✭✭✭michellie


    To your man earlier who wanted to set off a load of lanterns with his neighbours. THIS is what happens


    http://imgur.com/gallery/eRs5NRE


  • #1164
    FVP3
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    ignoring the results from Germany
    480 new cases yesterday, a 7.23% increase

    553 new cases today, but a 5.33% increase...

    It's hard to know where to begin with this kind of mathematical illiteracy, or whether to bother.

    But I don't think you guys even began to understand what "flattening the curve" meant. It didn't mean "killing the virus dead" but reducing the rate of increase of cases.

    (And eventually if the percentage increases in total cases trends down towards zero, the actual number of cases will also fall).


  • #1165
    blackcard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,317 ✭✭✭blackcard


    Strazdas wrote: »
    Many countries have run into big problems with testing - ditto with supplies of PPE

    We seem to have gotten it into our heads that we in Ireland are messing up, whilst everyone else is doing brilliantly (perhaps the media are not doing a good job of explaining this)

    From the Worldometer, we have carried out 53,000 total tests or 10, 734 per million population.
    USA 7948
    Spain 7593
    Italy 15935
    France 5114
    Germany 15730
    UK 4934
    Iran 2997
    Belgium 8814
    Switz 21957
    Holland 5926
    Canada 10639
    Brazil 296
    Portugal 15220
    Austria 15653
    Russia 8116
    Israel 13557
    South Korea 9957
    Sweden 5416

    So 7th out of those 19 countries which have the most cases of covid-19
    l left out China as figures seemed doubtful


  • #1166
    caveat emptor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    FVP3 wrote: »
    clearly you arent a maths genius.



    You dont understand by your own admission, the mathematics here. If we were not in control of these deaths and cases would be much much higher. And that is true everywhere.


    Omission yeah. What about lies by omission.

    We are ramping up tests, we are using Croke park and LE navy boat. (we are neglecting to say we have no way to process the samples)

    That's a lie by omission.


  • #1167
    lbj666
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    What the hell are talking about?

    Look at our death toll... I mean really look at it... now look at our population and our population density. And the fact that we are an Island nation on the edge of Europe!

    I'm no maths genius, but you don't need to be one to figure out that we are not faring too well in this thing.

    I'm no doom-monger - I'm just honest... but some of you guys are definitely trying too hard to put a positive spin on something that is not positive! I don't see why so many people on here that simply tell the truth, get labelled a doom-monger... it's a very dumb way to categorize people or their points. It's childish tbh.

    (And where did I say anything about climate change... or being anti-science ?? You must be confusing me with someone else!)

    Yet its been explained to you numberous times about the different way countries are reporting the deaths, some havent counted nursing homes, some havent counted death if covid was not the primary reason. We are counting all of those.
    Yet you persist to ignore this, so are you sure you are not a doom mongerer ?


  • #1168
    Jim_Hodge
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,109 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Quantum Erasure wrote: »
    ignoring the results from Germany
    480 new cases yesterday, a 7.23% increase

    553 new cases today, but a 5.33% increase...

    And if those old cases were fitted in where they belong the increases yesterday and to day would be smaller percentages again.


  • #1169
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote: »
    What the hell are talking about?

    Look at our death toll... I mean really look at it... now look at our population and our population density. And the fact that we are an Island nation on the edge of Europe!

    I'm no maths genius, but you don't need to be one to figure out that we are not faring too well in this thing.

    I'm no doom-monger - I'm just honest... but some of you guys are definitely trying too hard to put a positive spin on something that is not positive! I don't see why so many people on here that simply tell the truth, get labelled a doom-monger... it's a very dumb way to categorize people or their points. It's childish tbh.

    (And where did I say anything about climate change... or being anti-science ?? You must be confusing me with someone else!)

    Quit the doom preaching.

    We've got this, we just need to keep it going for 20 days.


  • #1170
    spookwoman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,059 ✭✭✭✭spookwoman


    Just saw they put the german numbers into the hse dashboard


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  • #1171
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    FVP3 wrote: »
    It's hard to know where to begin with this kind of mathematical illiteracy, or whether to bother.

    But I don't think you guys even began to understand what "flattening the curve" meant. It didn't mean "killing the virus dead" but reducing the rate of increase of cases.

    (And eventually if the percentage increases in total cases trends down towards zero, the actual number of cases will also fall).

    Jesus, Gimli. Lay down your axe, have a tankard of ale, the dwarves will return to Moria soon. You're running amok through the village with rage.


This discussion has been closed.
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