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Covid19 Part XV - 15,251 in ROI (610 deaths) 2,645 in NI (194 deaths) (19/04) Read OP

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,443 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Wombatman wrote: »
    Please be very wary of these graphs.

    The % growth is falling but the numbers are still growing.

    As numbers get bigger, growth rate will naturally fall.

    100 to 110 is 10% growth and 10 in number.

    400 to 420 is 5% growth and 20 in number.

    Growth rate lower. Number higher.

    You say all trends are downwards. This is a misrepresentation.

    Well it's not a misrepresentation, it's there in black and white regarding ICU numbers. I understand how it works, but look at the numbers and the stats regarding hosptial admissions and ICU they are NOT growing rapidly.

    Growth raid is an indication of how quickly the virus is spreading, lower the growth raid in cases the better.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    Wombatman wrote: »
    jesus.leaving.tomb.jpg

    No his death notice won`t be overturned until tomorrow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,615 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    That's scaremongering, are you not cognisant of the fact that the SAME thing simply CANNOT happen again because an increasing number of the population are becoming immune ???
    not nearly enough at this stage though

    What did she do?

    did a cover of Run by Snow Patrol on RTE just before the 9 o'clock news. in her usual style. very good


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 730 ✭✭✭Achasanai


    rm212 wrote: »
    So following on from the concert going for the last 5 hours here, which included a lovely variety of eras of music, a man trying to be a DJ by mixing tracks together and several quizzes where lots of neighbours and kids in the same garden stood up, walked to the mic and answered what song they guessed had just played to win chocolate... we’ve got fireworks going for the last 10 minutes. Get ready for the surge everyone... :(


    Oh, I was wondering what those fireworks were for. I thought it was some sort of Easter thing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,082 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    Sinead has a truly unique stunning voice


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Maryanne40 wrote: »
    I've been following the thread from the start but haven't posted before....however I have to come in about all the comparisons. First of all it's not a competition between countries. If anyone is doing well it's a bonus!

    But I find it very hard to read the posts predicting doom and gloom for Ireland and almost revelling in how badly we are (supposedly) doing. You can't compare apples with oranges. Every country seems to be collating their numbers differently so comparisons are meaningless.

    And as if to prove my point there is a report on Sky at the moment about the fact that deaths in nursing homes in the UK are NOT being included in their stats and that today alone 'dozens' of deaths occurred in those settings.

    Someone said earlier that they would be interested to know where Ecuador sits on those graphs.....and I would too. I'd be curious to see India/Africa/other south American countries stats too. But do you really think that countries where there are bodies piling up on the streets have the time and the inclination to work out those numbers.... so those graphs are next to valueless....yet if you read one particular poster here, according to the numbers there, we are on course to have the highest mortality rate in the world! Complete rubbish and wanton scaremongering.

    It also bothers me when posters talk about how wretched we are as a people, unable to do this, that and the other...whether it be observe the lockdown, conduct the number of tests we need, source PPE etc etc etc. Talk about negative. I hear the exact same reports emanating from other countries. What about focusing on the positive...the number of people who volunteered, the number of contributions to the feed the heroes campaign, the vast majority of the population who are adhering to the lockdown conditions...what about all that?

    And when all is said and done, all anybody can do is look after themselves and their physical and mental health as best they can. And I can tell you, coming on here and spreading negativity will do you (and others) no good at all!!!


    That's the point. You are on your own really. I'm ok with that.

    You have symptoms? - > you don't have enough symptoms -> no test - > numbers lower

    You have PPE - > not the right PPE - > highest rate of health care worker infection

    If this were an emergency where we had to attract foreign companies to invest in this country by offering tax breaks we'd be winning.

    It's not so we our decisions are completely inadequate / late. Why is the R0 still above one despite 2 weeks lockdown? Sure it'll be grand.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    they were mostly workers, i think. probably enjoyed a beer at the weekent too though...

    Wrong. Tourists.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Wombatman wrote: »
    As numbers get bigger, growth rate will naturally fall.

    If we were in an exponential increase that wouldn't be happening. There's nothing natural about the growth rate falling as numbers get bigger, not until herd immunity or close to it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,245 ✭✭✭Gretas Gonna Get Ya!


    Maryanne40 wrote: »
    I've been following the thread from the start but haven't posted before....however I have to come in about all the comparisons. First of all it's not a competition between countries. If anyone is doing well it's a bonus!

    But I find it very hard to read the posts predicting doom and gloom for Ireland and almost revelling in how badly we are (supposedly) doing. You can't compare apples with oranges. Every country seems to be collating their numbers differently so comparisons are meaningless.

    And as if to prove my point there is a report on Sky at the moment about the fact that deaths in nursing homes in the UK are NOT being included in their stats and that today alone 'dozens' of deaths occurred in those settings.

    Someone said earlier that they would be interested to know where Ecuador sits on those graphs.....and I would too. I'd be curious to see India/Africa/other south American countries stats too. But do you really think that countries where there are bodies piling up on the streets have the time and the inclination to work out those numbers.... so those graphs are next to valueless....yet if you read one particular poster here, according to the numbers there, we are on course to have the highest mortality rate in the world! Complete rubbish and wanton scaremongering.

    It also bothers me when posters talk about how wretched we are as a people, unable to do this, that and the other...whether it be observe the lockdown, conduct the number of tests we need, source PPE etc etc etc. Talk about negative. I hear the exact same reports emanating from other countries. What about focusing on the positive...the number of people who volunteered, the number of contributions to the feed the heroes campaign, the vast majority of the population who are adhering to the lockdown conditions...what about all that?

    And when all is said and done, all anybody can do is look after themselves and their physical and mental health as best they can. And I can tell you, coming on here and spreading negativity will do you (and others) no good at all!!!

    :rolleyes:

    I'll sum your post up very neatly here:

    The wrong facts = negativity.

    The right facts = positivity.

    Seems you have a problem with people telling the truth, if the truth is not positive enough for you.

    Perhaps you should stop reading this thread, if you cannot handle some of the less positive aspects of this pandemic? Just a suggestion, because you cannot expect everything you read to be positive during a crisis such as this when hundreds are dying... it's simply unrealistic and actually a bit deluded tbh!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,347 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    FVP3 wrote: »
    If we were in an exponential increase that wouldn't be happening. There's nothing natural about the growth rate falling as numbers get bigger, not until herd immunity.

    No. We simply run out of people.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Wombatman wrote: »
    No. We simply run out of people.

    No, herd immunity (or even getting to part of the way) will reduce the R0 before we run out of people.

    However we would clearly be in much worse position now had the exponential trend continued as it was continuing.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,490 ✭✭✭✭expectationlost


    youandme13 wrote: »
    Unfortunately I also know of another case where the person was told during the week they were negative and rang by the HSE today to be told they were actually positive!!
    first a text to say negative vs and then a call to say positive ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭lbj666


    :rolleyes:

    I'll sum your post up very neatly here:

    The wrong facts = negativity.

    The right facts = positivity.

    Seems you have a problem with people telling the truth, if the truth is not positive enough for you.

    Perhaps you should stop reading this thread, if you cannot handle some of the less positive aspects of this pandemic? Just a suggestion, because you cannot expect everything you read to be positive during a crisis such as this when hundreds are dying... it's simply unrealistic and actually a bit deluded tbh!

    if thats you summation of well written post like that maybe its time for you to go mate. Read it again.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    :rolleyes:

    I'll sum your post up very neatly here:

    The wrong facts = negativity.

    The right facts = positivity.

    Seems you have a problem with people telling the truth, if the truth is not positive enough for you.

    Perhaps you should stop reading this thread, if you cannot handle some of the less positive aspects of this pandemic? Just a suggestion, because you cannot expect everything you read to be positive during a crisis such as this when hundreds are dying... it's simply unrealistic and actually a bit deluded tbh!

    The problem is that you, and most of the negative doomsters on this thread, aren't very good at mathematics and therefore you don't recognise what is working or not.

    ( As an aside, for someone who believes that the government should have acted sooner on scientific advice why are you so anti science on climate change? )


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,347 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    FVP3 wrote: »
    No, herd immunity (or even getting to part of the way) will reduce the R0 before we run out of people.

    However we would clearly be in much worse position now had the exponential trend continued as it was continuing.

    In theory we have no idea if it did or didn't, or at what rate because of testing limitations. No country followed a purely mathematical exponential growth. It's not realistic.

    Is Sweden following exponential growth?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 372 ✭✭youandme13


    text vs call?

    They were phoned and told today..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 671 ✭✭✭poppers


    gabeeg wrote: »
    I'm guessing that they would have prioritised the most recent tests in the backlog.

    And if that's the case there's loads that could still be infectious.

    Doubt it iirc the fist batch or two from Germany had a positive rate around 6% similar to our earlier tests later batches seem to be in higher indicating they are agter the new rules for testing were introduced


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 763 ✭✭✭joe_99


    Wombatman wrote: »
    Please be very wary of these graphs.

    The % growth is falling but the numbers are still growing

    The number of cases can never go down. There can only ever be growth in the number of cases.


  • Posts: 2,016 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Cheltenham was an absolute DISASTER!!

    Came home over a grand worse off. But feck it lads, you have to stay positive. Its a lovely night here in Wexford. Great to get out of the Capital for a weekend during all this madness.
    Slainte!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,317 ✭✭✭blackcard


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Where's that extra 0.1km sneaking in, you sly divil?

    2 * 3.1416 * 2 = 12.5664 km, corrected to 2 decimal places = 12.57 km.
    Add 4km = 16.57 QED


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    I guess the sensitivity is massively limited by actually capturing viral genetic material on the swab. The specificity therefore seems quite high.
    Is it the possibility of not capturing the genetic material on the swab makes it less sensitive or is it a limitation of the assay itself?
    The sensitivity very much depends on the quality of the sample, like any patient specimen.

    Viral shedding may not be high in those with no cough or symptomatic people that were tested as contacts. I dont think that's a false negative due to the assay, you cant detect the virus if there isn't very much inoculated on the swab!

    With PCR, the RNA has to multiply and amplify up to a certain threshold to be called positive. If the genes are present but do not reach the threshold they are considered inconclusive/ not present depending on how each facility reports their results.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,347 ✭✭✭Wombatman


    joe_99 wrote: »
    The number of cases can never go down. There can only ever be growth in the number of cases.

    The number of new cases reported each day????


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Wombatman wrote: »
    In theory we have no idea if it did or didn't, or at what rate because of testing limitations. No country followed a purely mathematical exponential growth. It's not realistic.

    If you look at deaths, which can't be hidden, they did. And a virus does increase exponentially, especially a novel virus. That is why some predictions were for millions infected by mid April in the UK, and multiple millions in the US. What Leo called the surge.
    Is Sweden following exponential growth?

    Dunno.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    Cheltenham was an absolute DISASTER!!

    Came home over a grand worse off. But feck it lads, you have to stay positive. Its a lovely night here in Wexford. Great to get out of the Capital for a weekend during all this madness.
    Slainte!

    Edgy.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,133 ✭✭✭RentDayBlues


    youandme13 wrote: »
    They were phoned and told today..

    There’s a spam negative text going around


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,615 ✭✭✭Quantum Erasure


    joe_99 wrote: »
    The number of cases can never go down. There can only ever be growth in the number of cases.

    yes but the increase in cases is still higher, even if the percentage is lower...


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,134 ✭✭✭caveat emptor


    Initially I was terrified what would happen if we didn't bring in restrictions. We managed to bring them in but it was always slightly after the fact.
    I've been impressed with how society are rallying around vulnerable but if I look at the situation coldly I'm not so happy. At every step there has been people on here doing their best to raise awareness fighting pitched battles with the wilfully ignorant. It's great to see so many like minded people on here but I've spent most of my time pointing out utter horsesho!t written by people who are clearly working for some vested interest in a volunteer or professional capacity.
    • cancel the match / parade => leave pubs open so people travelled anyway
    • open glamour testing centres => no possibility of processing them => massive testing backlog to this way
    • transparency through obfuscation => It should not take that long to explain a number
    • Proper PPE for front-line staff => highest rate of HCW infected AFIK (as a percentage of total cases) All you need to do is compare how our staff look compared to other countries to know we were given run around.
    • Talking AROUND numbers has turned into a national sport
    • Nursing home situation needs investigation. God knows how many people who could have pulled through were signed away by well wishing family who stood to gain financially. Horrible to think but I've seen this first hand with family and houses.

    I wasn't surprised in the least that extensions were extended. I'm still not happy about not having a clear exit strategy. Strategy has been weak throughout. We were more concerned with cowing EU, vintners , Bord failte than getting ahead of this curve.

    Getting to the stage of just getting on with the new reality. This will be hear for a very long time if the whole international community doesn't work together. Best just get used to new normal and keep yourself and loved ones happy and safe.

    Happy Saturday. :)


    Is this too negative. It’s just being real unfortunately.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭FVP3


    joe_99 wrote: »
    The number of cases can never go down. There can only ever be growth in the number of cases.

    Exactly. They are not removing from that number the recovered cases.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 817 ✭✭✭no.8


    Came home over a grand worse off. But feck it lads, you have to stay positive. Its a lovely night here in Wexford. Great to get out of the Capital for a weekend during all this madness. Slainte!

    Cheltenham was an absolute DISASTER!!


    Har har har......gerrr out


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 763 ✭✭✭joe_99


    Wombatman wrote: »
    The number of new cases reported each day????

    What? That makes no sense.


This discussion has been closed.
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