CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Gynoid · 10-04-2020 12:07PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Less hopeful news from study:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/apr/10/coronavirus-live-news-global-deaths-near-95000-as-boris-johnson-leaves-intensive-care

What does this mean?
They have 8 million pop. 250 dead. And less than 1% infection. About 0.33% acutely infected now it says. 80,000 approx is 1% of population. (Their recorded cases are about 12000).
At 250 out of 80000 it would be 0. 3% mortality rate. At 250 out of one third of that (0.33%) it would be 1% death rate. Maybe the margin of error on the poll is too large to allow interpretation?

Okay enough mental maths for me. I don't know what this poll means.

Phoebas · 10-04-2020 12:08PM

flanna01 wrote: »

Why would Irish residents returning home be driving British registered cars...???

The piece only says that 'quite a few' are on UK registered cars; the rest are not.
tbh, where they register their car isn't important - whether or not they are taking a necessary trip is.

is_that_so · 10-04-2020 12:09PM

Government update just started on RTE News Now. EDIT: Seems to be just DoF and Paschal.

Funsterdelux · 10-04-2020 12:11PM

Phoebas wrote: »

The piece only says that 'quite a few' are on UK registered cars; the rest are not.
tbh, where they register their car isn't important - whether or not they are taking a necessary trip is.

Possible importing of cheap uk secondhand cars

Possible importing of cheap coronavirus

10-04-2020 12:13PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its complete rubbish. Stena and Irish ferries have both said hand full of cars on ships 99% trucks. Sensationalist crap
https://twitter.com/fergalrte/status/1248235621094735872?s=19

Yes. '..... quiet a few UK reg cars were observed...'
Quite a few? What the feck kind of journalism is this?
I have suspicions about this mass exodus of Dublin residents to their second home in the sticks as well. Is there any real evidence of it, even one concrete example, or is it just more hysterical social media hype?

gabeeg · 10-04-2020 12:13PM

glasso wrote: »

it's a data point.

it shows the the infection fatality rate (yes for that known demographic) is .4%

where else is there an infection fatality rate for a population documented?

it was previously assumed to be somewhere between 1% and 3% then that is a hugely significant data point. this means that hospitalisation rates are also much lower. as the focus of all measures employed here in Ireland are related to hospitalisation rates this is hugely significant to how measures here should be continued or moved to stage II

it cannot be necessarily applied to the whole world without further such data points which I'm sure will come out of Germany but you are just waffling with questions or "overwhelmed health service" - no data.

what have Italy and Spain to say about it - show me any data point that says anything about it

Have you emerged from a coma recently?

Hobgoblin11 · 10-04-2020 12:14PM

China and US relations will be at all time lows after this pandemic, expect bad things

Phoebas · 10-04-2020 12:14PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Possible importing of cheap uk secondhand cars

Possible importing of cheap coronavirus

Possible sensationalist story by irresponsible media putting clicks in front of truth.

deise08 · 10-04-2020 12:15PM

It's all over Facebook that there is a Taoiseach address at 4pm..?

stephenjmcd · 10-04-2020 12:16PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes. '..... quiet a few UK reg cars were observed...'
Quite a few? What the feck kind of journalism is this?
I have suspicions about this mass exodus of Dublin residents to their second home in the sticks as well. Is there any real evidence of it, even one concrete example, or is it just more hysterical social media hype?

Everyone keeps using the n11 to wicklow as an example of people fleeing dublin for the weekend and the pictures of traffic jams. Traffic jams because theres a garda checkpoint at bray putting essentially 3 lanes into 1. People can view the stats on road usage on the TII website. The roads currently have a fifth if even of normal volume on them. They're also at the same level of last week which suggests it is only essential workers travelling.

It's pure sensationalism on some media outlets part.

10-04-2020 12:18PM

flanna01 wrote: »

Why would Irish residents returning home be driving British registered cars...???

Maybe they lost their Job in the UK and are moving home. Either way anyone is driving a car who is not an permanent resident, don't have an essential service to provide, or are not an Irish citizen returning home permanently should be turned around

Mental Mickey · 10-04-2020 12:18PM

Is there any official source? F**k Facebook

BanditLuke · 10-04-2020 12:19PM

Mr.S wrote: »

Because it's not true.

The day anyone uses Extra as a credible source is a dark day.

Thank god for that. Seemed insane

wakka12 · 10-04-2020 12:19PM

Deaths way down in Spain this morning. Belgium actually reported more than Spain today, almost 500.

Hobgoblin11 · 10-04-2020 12:20PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Deaths way down in Spain this morning. Belgium actually reported more than Spain today, almost 500.

500 deaths in Belgium?

Drumpot · 10-04-2020 12:21PM

gabeeg wrote: »

Have you emerged from a coma recently?

blade1 · 10-04-2020 12:23PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

500 deaths in Belgium?

496

MerlinSouthDub · 10-04-2020 12:24PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A couple of problems I can spot straight away with that study - 0.15% of the population of Austria have already tested positive. Yet the 95% confidence interval goes to 0.12%. Must have been a tiny sample size in the to give such a wide range, and one that fall outside the current actual detection rate.

The "study" is described as a poll (presumably some form of opinion poll asking about Covid symptoms). It is not a medical study.

is_that_so · 10-04-2020 12:24PM

Mental Mickey wrote: »

Is there any official source? F**k Facebook

There will be one expected to announce an extension anyway, so probably true.

AtomicHorror · 10-04-2020 12:28PM

glasso wrote: »

it's a data point.

it shows the the infection fatality rate (yes for that known demographic) is .4%

where else is there an infection fatality rate for a population documented?

it was previously assumed to be somewhere between 1% and 3% then that is a hugely significant data point. this means that hospitalisation rates are also much lower. as the focus of all measures employed here in Ireland are related to hospitalisation rates this is hugely significant to how measures here should be continued or moved to stage II

it cannot be necessarily applied to the whole world without further such data points which I'm sure will come out of Germany but you are just waffling with questions or "overwhelmed health service" - no data.

what have Italy and Spain to say about it - show me any data point that says anything about it

I'm sure once SARS-CoV-2 knows that the mortality and hospitalization rates were off, it'll reduce hospitalization and death counts. We just need to explain it clearly enough for the virus to understand.

You seem to have a good grasp of the topic, you might draft something?

A Dub in Glasgo · 10-04-2020 12:32PM

Juwwi wrote: »

https://extra.ie/2020/04/10/news/irish-news/ferry-passengers-lockdown-ireland?fbclid=IwAR2LoWRKEyR9C5MKnH8Yb5NNccHvtf2y0L_oZUN2n6fOTGYRFmjsQL48ogg

Madness

There are only two British registered cars in that article

Professor Moriarty · 10-04-2020 12:33PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Deaths way down in Spain this morning. Belgium actually reported more than Spain today, almost 500.

Good news for Spain.

road_high · 10-04-2020 12:33PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Its complete rubbish. Stena and Irish ferries have both said hand full of cars on ships 99% trucks. Sensationalist crap
https://twitter.com/fergalrte/status/1248235621094735872?s=19

There’s nothing going on and no real news because we are in lockdown borderline martial law. The social media hordes are at a loose end so they need a new target for their outrage. Was some people going to their holiday homes yesterday, now it’s the ferries. Surprised there aren’t photographs of the few arrivals at the Airport to round it off.
A few Einsteins want to stop the ferries completely. For a country like Ireland the equivalent of sawing our limbs off. The same kind of empty vessels you’ll get panic buying bog roll 6 weeks ago and queueing for McDonald’s as it closed up.

10-04-2020 12:35PM

glasso wrote: »

it cannot be necessarily applied to the whole world without further such data points which I'm sure will come out of Germany but you are just waffling with questions or "overwhelmed health service" - no data.

what have Italy and Spain to say about it - show me any data point that says anything about it

What are you on about? There is a huge volume of evidence from Italy and Spain on their hospitalisation rates via a vis their health service capacity, and the impact that has had on death rates.

Data doesn't just exist for the sake of it, it's there to allow us quantitavely examine a situation and provide information for policy decision makers. You're still not explaining why you believe this one German study is so important in informing the Irish response?

road_high · 10-04-2020 12:41PM

flanna01 wrote: »

Why would Irish residents returning home be driving British registered cars...???

Lots of people live and commute between both islands as we are so close and intermingled. All kinds of familial circumstances that are frankly no one’s business but their own.

Doctors room ghost · 10-04-2020 12:41PM

I’ll tell ye who’s another unsung hero who got no mention in any of this is the truckers.
Men and women working flat out to keep shelves full and deliveries rolling inspite of all the selfish,self entitled gombeens who are in the shops stripping them same shelves.
Fair play to the truckers.with the tacho restriction lifted they are working around the clock and we would have nothing without them.
And when it’s all over they will be back racing the clock and trying to obey the tachos while being harassed and fined.
Cheers and thanks to the truckers

polesheep · 10-04-2020 12:46PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

This is correct which is why we need to keep the present very reasonable restrictions going and introduce more if needed. We just can't trust people to act like adults and be responsible im afraid.

But, of course, we can trust you.

road_high · 10-04-2020 12:47PM

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

I’ll tell ye who’s another unsung hero who got no mention in any of this is the truckers.
Men and women working flat out to keep shelves full and deliveries rolling inspite of all the selfish,self entitled gombeens who are in the shops stripping them same shelves.
Fair play to the truckers.with the tacho restriction lifted they are working around the clock and we would have nothing without them.
And when it’s all over they will be back racing the clock and trying to obey the tachos while being harassed and fined.
Cheers and thanks to the truckers

I agree. One profession like agriculture that’s been almost regulated out if existence too. I hope there’s a new found appreciation and resetting of the never ending Regs forced upon certain industries from here

10-04-2020 12:48PM

Flying Fox wrote: »

What are you on about? There is a huge volume of evidence from Italy and Spain on their hospitalisation rates via a vis their health service capacity, and the impact that has had on death rates.

Data doesn't just exist for the sake of it, it's there to allow us quantitavely examine a situation and provide information for policy decision makers. You're still not explaining why you believe this one German study is so important in informing the Irish response?

what data is relevant to what is being discussed here- link.. to anything relevant or is this huge volume just in your head? Italy and Spain don't have a clue what the hospitalisation rate is because they don't know the % of their population infected.

what is hugely relevant here (German results) is that much less of the infected people than previously thought will be hospitalised and die.

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

One often-heard statistic is the "case fatality rate"—that is, the percentage of people diagnosed with a disease who will die of it. This afternoon that figure stands at 3.5 percent for COVID-19 in the U.S., but this rate is significantly inflated because it does not count asymptomatic cases or undiagnosed people who recover at home. What we really need to know is the infection fatality rate: the percentage of all the people infected who eventually die of the disease. That's what the German study attempts to do.

Over the last two weeks, German virologists tested nearly 80 percent of the population of Gangelt (population 11,000) for antibodies that indicate whether they'd been infected by the coronavirus. Around 15 percent had been infected, allowing them to calculate a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of about 0.37 percent. The researchers also concluded that people who recover from the infection are immune to reinfection, at least for a while.

For comparison, the U.S. infection fatality rates for the 1957–58 flu epidemic was around 0.27 percent; for the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic, it was about 2.6 percent. For seasonal flu, the rate typically averages around 0.1 percent. Basically, the German researchers found that the coronavirus kills about four times as many infected people than seasonal flu viruses do.

The German researchers caution that it would be wrong to extrapolate these regional results to the whole country. But they also believe these findings show that lockdowns can begin to be lifted, as long as people maintain high levels of hygiene to keep COVID-19 under control.

if German researchers believe this, I'd tend to believe them over your ramblings.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 10-04-2020 12:48PM

When will we know what time an announcement is coming today?

CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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