CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Drumpot · 10-04-2020 08:46AM

Phoebas wrote: »

I presume that the 'plan' is to maintain the spread of the virus to manageable levels until either we get a vaccine or achieve herd Immunity.

That being the case, aren't tracking apps and immunity certificates and the like going to be inevitable, along with a steady stream of deaths every day over the next year or so.

I hear people talking about gradually lifting restrictions and getting back to normal towards the end of the summer, but I just don't see how that works.

I think you may be right on all accounts.

If this is going to go on for 12—18 months , if an app is needed to help defeat it then it will happen. I was thinking about contact tracing and an app is far easier then asking everybody to keep a diary of where they were and who they met over the previous weeks.

People can’t have their cake and eat it, until this passes unless a better way is found some of our democratic rights may need to be suspended like they are currently. If it’s an app on our phones that we can delete when this is over then so be it.

Doctors room ghost · 10-04-2020 08:48AM

The One Doctor wrote: »

Realistically speaking the lockdown is not sustainable for more than another month. After that... we'll, let's just say that the Guards might be more challenged than challenging.

I don't want anyone more to die of this virus, but economic and psychological problems are appearing day by day. Divorces rates, suicide rates, mental health issues, money problems, unemployment, businesses shut permanently, tax takes way down, education problems... lockdown is unsustainable for much longer in multiple ways.

There are some positives. Hand washing and social distancing will remain as habits now, reducing virus spread. Working from home will help too.

If the pubs and nightclubs were opened this minute they would be packed to the rafters and not a single fcuk would be given for social distancing unless it was brought up as a joke.lets not be kidding ourselves.
The second coppers or the likes open there will be people packed into them and it will be the same as it ever was.
Casualty will be back to babysitting gombeens that can’t hold their Porter or who fancy themselves as a bit of a mikeen Tyson after a few sherries.
An hour and things will be as they always were.

cameramonkey · 10-04-2020 08:48AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Hi All

Does anyone know if Dumps are open?

Ballyogan in Dublin was open all week so far.
https://www.dlrcoco.ie/en/recycling-waste/recycling-centres/ballyogan-recycling-park

Gynoid · 10-04-2020 08:52AM

The One Doctor wrote: »

Realistically speaking the lockdown is not sustainable for more than another month. After that... we'll, let's just say that the Guards might be more challenged than challenging.

I don't want anyone more to die of this virus, but economic and psychological problems are appearing day by day. Divorces rates, suicide rates, mental health issues, money problems, unemployment, businesses shut permanently, tax takes way down, education problems... lockdown is unsustainable for much longer in multiple ways.

There are some positives. Hand washing and social distancing will remain as habits now, reducing virus spread. Working from home will help too.

Perhaps you can provide the policy makers with your suitably researched and backed up claims on divorce rates, suicide rates and mental health issues that counterpose the pandemic research rates and proper medical extrapolations.
There is so much hype and hyperbole from people who are supposedly in the sane "please let us think of the economic consequences" brigade. Spouting shyte more like.
You know next to feck all about this disease, like the rest of us, and yet you speak of growing psychological problems as if from your armchair you can magically divine them.

The people who divorce because of this did not really like each other all that much anyway. Tis better they part. The people who cannot observe a period of social and economic restriction in a pandemic without falling into a mental health chasm cannot guide our requirements - they should instead look to better management of their own psychology. In the past 100 years our forefathers and mothers had to endure so much worse. The people who cannot help their children aught to grow up faster, there are a multitude of ways to educate and entertain your children nowadays. How about simply be with them. I educated mine for more than a decade at home and they all excelled in University. None of these tasks are even difficult. All this whimpering of think of the economy is bread head bluster. The economy and money will be waiting patiently for your endless desires on the other side of this.

Phoebas · 10-04-2020 08:52AM

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Herd immunity can't be achieved safely before a vaccine would likely be approved. The numbers just don't allow for it.

I suspect that's right, but there's a hope in some of the numbers coming out of Iceland and elsewhere that the number of asymptomatic infections is much higher than expected.

That might just be wishful thinking.

FishOnABike · 10-04-2020 09:01AM

DelaneyIn wrote: »

All EU Member States except Ireland "have since taken national decisions to implement the travel restriction."

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_616

Why is this?

It's an combined action coordinating the response of Schengen and Schengen-associated states to travel from outside the Schengen area . Ireland is not a Schengen or Schengen-associated state so is outside the scope of the press release.

AtomicHorror · 10-04-2020 09:01AM

Phoebas wrote: »

I suspect that's right, but there's a hope in some of the numbers coming out of Iceland and elsewhere that the number of asymptomatic infections is much higher than expected.

That might just be wishful thinking.

Assuming the numbers from Iceland will apply to Ireland, that would mean we have double the cases we think we have, and that we can allow infections at 2x whatever rate we would have accepted previously.

But to get to herd immunity in 12 - 18 months, we'd still need 150,000 - 250,000 new infections per month. Right now, assuming 50% of cases are asymptomatic and undetected, we have about 13,000 - 14,000 cases total.

Our health system would collapse within weeks.

Brianmwalker · 10-04-2020 09:03AM

glasso wrote: »

Hugely significant finding from Germany - 0.4% infection fatality rate

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

Tested a whole town in Germany. Fatality rate lower than thought at .4% .

Infection fatality rate far more accurate than case fatality rate

So if deaths and hospitalised rate far lower than assumed then hospitals not overrun so relax lockdown earlier as whole basis is health service over-run

Also 15% was the infection rate in the town there. Long way to go to herd immunity

No worries so. Back to normal life for everyone. Italian health service must be always over run...

AtomicHorror · 10-04-2020 09:04AM

glasso wrote: »

if what is coming out of Germany is correct and the infection fatality rate is 0.4% that may not be the case...

The numbers from Germany don't really help us, we'd still need to get to 60% population coverage minimum in too short a time. To do it safely would take years and would still cost many lives.

10-04-2020 09:07AM

Brianmwalker wrote: »

No worries so. Back to normal life for everyone. Italian health service must be always over run...

the actual infection rate in the community in Italy is likely quite high. if it's 15% in a little German town, what do you think it is in Bergamo?

it doesn't mean that measures are abandoned but can certainly mean a change in them and particularly allows for flexibility moving towards an economy that produces income.

you do realise that the measures are all about projections on the health-service over-run.

10-04-2020 09:09AM

AtomicHorror wrote: »

The numbers from Germany don't really help us, we'd still need to get to 60% population coverage minimum in too short a time. To do it safely would take years and would still cost many lives.

does affect lockdown measures as all measures based on hospital capacity.

if true hospitalisation and icu admission rates (of total infected) are a fraction of what was assumed then that obviously changes things.

does not mean that you abandon measures but would certainly influence stage II

Gynoid · 10-04-2020 09:10AM

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Assuming the numbers from Iceland will apply to Ireland, that would mean we have double the cases we think we have, and that we can allow infections at 2x whatever rate we would have accepted previously.

But to get to herd immunity in 12 - 18 months, we'd still need 150,000 - 250,000 new infections per month. Right now, assuming 50% of cases are asymptomatic and undetected, we have about 13,000 - 14,000 cases total.

Our health system would collapse within weeks.

A health system can only collapse if the numbers requiring significant treatment are bad. We do not know what percentage that would be in the end. This is the thing - it may not be bad. It may be that only a tiny number need hospital and an even tinier number die. We do not know now. We do not know if those recovered are okay longer term. We do not know if there are subtler effects even in asymptomatic people.

Because it is a novel virus to our immune systems and apparently quite contagious, this is why even if it is a very tiny number who need help it might be bad for the overall system.

THAT is why we just gotta wait a bit and get more data. That is all - more knowledge! We need it. More science. Not rush about like silly lemmings making wittering frantic noises about the great god economy.

iguana · 10-04-2020 09:10AM

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Herd immunity can't be achieved safely before a vaccine would likely be approved. The numbers just don't allow for it.

Not full herd immunity no. But allowing a degree of spread during this wave, say 20-30%, means that a second, winter wave would be less deadly. We might also have decent antibody testing in the next few months. A number of countries have plans to issue immunity certificates allowing those immune people to work. Imagine if by late autumn nursing home and care home staff and home care assistants were all people with immunity. The majority of our fatalities right now seem to be from nursing homes. Just think of the enormous difference it would make if it wasn't possible for someone working in a nursing home to infect the residents. Imagine how much easier and safer it would be for frontline workers to find childcare if childcare workers with immunity were organised, etc.

We lost whatever chance we had of containing Covid 19 in February. A number of decisions were made early on that made that blatantly impossible. I suspect that the decision was made to allow a degree of slow spread in the spring/summer so that we wouldn't be completely overwhelmed in the winter. The DoH just had a bit more nous than the British government and didn't come out and say that's what they were doing while also planning for a slower spread.

lord quackinton · 10-04-2020 09:11AM

Ireland getting hit hard by Covid one of the highest death rates even above America

I firmly believe this Is down to the very poor state of our nursing homes
I worked in some before building work but all the same I found the general cleanness of the homes was very poor.

I think when this is over we will have to review how as a society we treat the elderly

DevilsHaircut · 10-04-2020 09:12AM

glasso wrote: »

the actual infection rate in the community in Italy is likely quite high. if it's 15% in a little German town, what do you think it is in Bergamo?

it doesn't mean that measures are abandoned but can certainly mean a change in them and particularly allows for flexibility moving towards an economy that produces income.

you do realise that the measures are all about projections on the health-service over-run.

Tony Holohan has said many times at the briefings that the measures/NPHET recommendations are firstly to reduce transmission and the number of people infected.

Nermal · 10-04-2020 09:13AM

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Our health system would collapse within weeks.

I keep hearing this mantra repeated, without any thought or detail. When we have more patients than we can treat, we treat the ones most likely to survive. That’s not collapse, it’s triage. It’s unpleasant. So what? Economic collapse is unpleasant too.

10-04-2020 09:13AM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Tony Holohan has said many times at the briefings that the measures/NPHET recommendations are firstly to reduce transmission and the number of people infected.

this is more about stage II and the influence on that eventual plan

10-04-2020 09:20AM

lord quackinton wrote: »

Ireland getting hit hard by Covid one of the highest death rates even above America

I firmly believe this Is down to the very poor state of our nursing homes
I worked in some before building work but all the same I found the general cleanness of the homes was very poor.

I think when this is over we will have to review how as a society we treat the elderly

the case fatality rate doesn't mean much given the state of the testing and testing that cannot really be effectively compared between countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?

the death rate per million population (assuming deaths are actually correctly classified and reported in both countries which is a big assumption especially given size of US) of 50 vs 53 is hardly significantly different.

10-04-2020 09:23AM

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

If the pubs and nightclubs were opened this minute they would be packed to the rafters and not a single fcuk would be given for social distancing unless it was brought up as a joke.lets not be kidding ourselves.
The second coppers or the likes open there will be people packed into them and it will be the same as it ever was.
Casualty will be back to babysitting gombeens that can’t hold their Porter or who fancy themselves as a bit of a mikeen Tyson after a few sherries.
An hour and things will be as they always were.

You can never underestimate mass stupidity, "what about me jar I just want a taste" under the guise of economic progress. The lockdown isn't sustainable long-term but a gradual lifting of restrictions is the only feasible solution. Consider the fine weather this weekend. If the "lockdown will be gone by Sunday lads" crackpot had his way a stampede would overrun the beaches and parks. An oversized petri dish for rampant spread of Covid-19. Locals in west Clare are absolutely right to offer holiday home crowd the shotgun treatment, take your non-essential journey and shove it up your entitled hole. There were 500 new cases yesterday, the highest tally yet and this will only increase in immediate future. People need to cop on to themselves, we're all in this together. Let's slow the rate of infection and not needlessly endanger lives.

speckle · 10-04-2020 09:24AM

Ardent wrote: »

Supposedly footage of mass graves being filled in NYC:
https://twitter.com/nowthisnews/status/1248374630399672321?s=19

Unbelievable times.

we need to make sure this doesnt happen in Ireland. Is their some fund or charity so people can be buried in single graves. Maybe familys with alot of room in their grave plot could donate a place.Down the country most locals band together so this doesnt happen. maybe the vdp?

polesheep · 10-04-2020 09:25AM

glasso wrote: »

the actual infection rate in the community in Italy is likely quite high. if it's 15% in a little German town, what do you think it is in Bergamo?

it doesn't mean that measures are abandoned but can certainly mean a change in them and particularly allows for flexibility moving towards an economy that produces income.

you do realise that the measures are all about projections on the health-service over-run.

I think you'd be amazed just how many people aren't aware of that.

DevilsHaircut · 10-04-2020 09:26AM

In terms of 'stage II'/an exit strategy, I think effective treatments (potentially including convalescent plasma/antibody therapy) are likely to come sooner than a vaccine or 'herd immunity' (60%+? infected).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/plasma-from-coronavirus-survivors-found-to-help-severely-ill-patients

The One Doctor · 10-04-2020 09:26AM

Gynoid wrote: »

Perhaps you can provide the policy makers with your suitably researched and backed up claims on divorce rates, suicide rates and mental health issues that counterpose the pandemic research rates and proper medical extrapolations.
There is so much hype and hyperbole from people who are supposedly in the sane "please let us think of the economic consequences" brigade. Spouting shyte more like.
You know next to feck all about this disease, like the rest of us, and yet you speak of growing psychological problems as if from your armchair you can magically divine them.

The people who divorce because of this did not really like each other all that much anyway. Tis better they part. The people who cannot observe a period of social and economic restriction in a pandemic without falling into a mental health chasm cannot guide our requirements - they should instead look to better management of their own psychology. In the past 100 years our forefathers and mothers had to endure so much worse. The people who cannot help their children aught to grow up faster, there are a multitude of ways to educate and entertain your children nowadays. How about simply be with them. I educated mine for more than a decade at home and they all excelled in University. None of these tasks are even difficult. All this whimpering of think of the economy is bread head bluster. The economy and money will be waiting patiently for your endless desires on the other side of this.

I was going to write a blistering riposte to your post, but I admit that you're right. Thank you for putting the situation in a way that makes it clearer for us all.

Just to be clear, this is a genuine reply and not sarcasm.

AtomicHorror · 10-04-2020 09:29AM

Gynoid wrote: »

A health system can only collapse if the numbers requiring significant treatment are bad. We do not know what percentage that would be in the end. This is the thing - it may not be bad. It may be that only a tiny number need hospital and an even tinier number die. We do not know now. We do not know if those recovered are okay longer term. We do not know if there are subtler effects even in asymptomatic people.

We know a bit. We know that we're probably missing 30-50% of total cases, but that these don't ultimately contribute as much to the serious and fatal case counts. We know the % of serious case counts and deaths per detected case. We know our population and the % coverage we need to get to minimum herd immunity.

That's where I got my numbers from, and with those assumptions, you'd be talking about increasing our serious and fatal case count to at least 5x what it is right now, and you'd have to manage that volume every month.

Gynoid wrote: »

Because it is a novel virus to our immune systems and apparently quite contagious, this is why even if it is a very tiny number who need help it might be bad for the overall system.

THAT is why we just gotta wait a bit and get more data. That is all - more knowledge! We need it. More science. Not rush about like silly lemmings making wittering frantic noises about the great god economy.

I agree, which means no major changes to the current controls for some time to come, particularly travel and quarantine. I don't think natural herd immunity is going to be realistic, unless the numbers are 1 -2 orders of magnitude off where we think they are based on the numbers from Iceland and Germany.

petes · 10-04-2020 09:30AM

Nermal wrote: »

I keep hearing this mantra repeated, without any thought or detail. When we have more patients than we can treat, we treat the ones most likely to survive. That’s not collapse, it’s triage. It’s unpleasant. So what? Economic collapse is unpleasant too.

If you have to triage between someone who gets treatment and someone who doesn't it's not manageable and therefore overrun.

10-04-2020 09:31AM

Nermal wrote: »

I keep hearing this mantra repeated, without any thought or detail. When we have more patients than we can treat, we treat the ones most likely to survive. That’s not collapse, it’s triage. It’s unpleasant. So what? Economic collapse is unpleasant too.

The virus itself is the cause of economic collapse, lockdown or no lockdown. Let's say we didn't lockdown, do you really believe that the economy could just tick along as normal while health services are being overrun, thousands are dying and the population is living in fear? Also while many of our global trading partners are in lockdown.

This is not a simple trade off where you can exchange the lives of the vulnerable for economic stability (a choice most reasonable people would never support anyway). You either risk lives in a vain attempt to protect an economy that's already screwed, or you take measures to save as many lives as possible.

People talk about the trauma of lockdown, mental health issues, etc. I'd argue that the collective trauma is far worse in a situation where thousands of people are dying, thousands more may be left with long term lung damage, and those left behind are dealing with the after effects of losing their loved ones in such a distressing manner, unable to be with them when they're dying and not even being able to give them a decent funeral. Not to mention the fear that a high death rate would trigger in the general public.

There's a reason why most of the world has chosen to lockdown.

voluntary · 10-04-2020 09:31AM

lord quackinton wrote: »

Ireland getting hit hard by Covid one of the highest death rates even above America

The official death rate figures are rubbish. There's so many ill not being tested. And I'm not talking people queuing to be tested, I'm talking people told by GPs to stay home and take paracetamol and never offered to be tested. I know 2 families with COVID like symptoms who wanted to be tested but were told NO by their GPs as the body temperature was below 39 Celsius. We have many, many more infected than official figures, so the death rates are skewed.

Even WHO advices against looking at these numbers and death rates and comparing across countries. These numbers are simply uncomparable.
Add to this that different countries count different deaths into statistics. Some countries report all infected who died, many countries only report these whose main reason of death was covid. With other underlying conditions many countries massively underreport covid deaths.

gabeeg · 10-04-2020 09:31AM

glasso wrote: »

Hugely significant finding from Germany - 0.4% infection fatality rate

https://reason.com/2020/04/09/preliminary-german-study-shows-a-covid-19-infection-fatality-rate-of-about-0-4-percent/

Tested a whole town in Germany. Fatality rate lower than thought at .4% .

Infection fatality rate far more accurate than case fatality rate

So if deaths and hospitalised rate far lower than assumed then hospitals not overrun so relax lockdown earlier as whole basis is health service over-run

Also 15% was the infection rate in the town there. Long way to go to herd immunity

This virus does not have a static fatality rate.

It might have a fatality rate of 0.4% in one small town in Germany, but that will not be the same in a small town in say Italy, where the health system was completely overwhelmed.
The death rate will be significantly higher there.

Your article also completely neglects to mention the stat that is just as important - how many people in that German town got infected?

petes · 10-04-2020 09:32AM

The One Doctor wrote: »

I was going to write a blistering riposte to your post, but I admit that you're right. Thank you for putting the situation in a way that makes it clearer for us all.

Just to be clear, this is a genuine reply and not sarcasm.

Glad to see someone replying like this, most people argue until they are blue in the face :pac:

take everything · 10-04-2020 09:32AM

weldoninhio wrote: »

For us to have hit 15k, just under half of people tested would have had to be positive for Covid. Has any country got a 50% infection rate?? We’d only done 42k tests up to Tuesday.

So you're putting the projected 15k figure over 42k. But the 42k is the denominator for our situation now. So you're describing a scenario where no mitigation measures were done and 15k happened and we did not ramp up testing. Then yes the reported infection rate would be that high. No country seems to have run that experiment so we have not seen this.

CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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