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CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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Comments

  • #6962
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,467 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    They're distancing themselves from referencing a surge, if the curve is flattened they dont expect a surge and thats the goal


  • #6963
    KindOfIrish
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 454 ✭✭KindOfIrish


    Longing wrote: »
    And whats your point. Your 1 millions deaths are bad. Has is 28 today and there familys.

    No question that on a personal level every death is a tragedy. But from statistic point of view nothing extraordinary is happening.


  • #6964
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    I assume the 'transmission rate of 1' figure is calculated by tracing a number of close contacts of an infected individual and generally theyve found that usually one of their close contacts also caught it from them


  • #6965
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,029 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    EDit wrote: »
    Do we really need a daily argument over the definition of median?

    We do if people see Median age is 80 and then automatically assume that everyone that has died was on the way out as the average is 80, when i reality you could have ten people in their 20's in the median age figure.


  • #6966
    Nonoperational
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,400 ✭✭✭Nonoperational


    From an ICU and hospital capacity point of view it is busy but not disastrous. The standard ICUs are filling up but it’s still at the point of using HDU as extra capacity. That is essentially the first phase of the icu expansion plan. Moving to converted wards etc adds lots of capacity but we don’t need to do that yet.

    Of note we extubated 3 people in the past few days and they left ICU. Some positivity at least.


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  • #6967
    owlbethere
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    I missed today's briefing. I got the number of cases and the death numbers - them numbers - fcuking hell.

    What did I miss with the briefing? Was there anything important?


  • #6968
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    If the measured basic reproduction rate is 1 or below as they said today that's excellent news. There will be a lag before we see the good news become a trend in the case figures but it's a good place to start given the dearth of positive news we've been experiencing over the last number of days.


  • #6969
    Pitch n Putt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 581 ✭✭✭Pitch n Putt


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    ?? We are expecting peak in next 5 days. Cases positive are irrelevant at present due to testing mg issues. We look at deaths. Hope peak arrives within 5 days abs will see downward trend. Lockdown impact on death rate is about 3 to 4 weeks.


    This is turning into a bit of a mess now.
    Peak always seems to be two weeks away.

    It’s obvious now that the government and advisory committee made a bad call with the current lockdown.

    There’s too many people working and on the move.

    This needed the hard lockdown two weeks ago. Medical ,carers and food distribution and supermarkets only.
    Everything else should have been stopped two weeks ago.

    We’re going to be messing around with a half arsed lockdown for 6 months at the way things are going now.

    What they are trying to do by keeping non essential so called essential businesses open is like trying to shove water up a hill in regards suppressing the virus.

    I reckon another 3-4 weeks and people will just have enough of this soft route with no end in sight


  • #6970
    keynes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 300 ✭✭keynes


    EDit wrote: »
    Do we really need a daily argument over the definition of median?
    It would be great if the gov came clean with the death stats rather than deliberating obfuscating and biasing the age stats upwards


  • #6971
    normanoffside
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,234 ✭✭✭✭normanoffside


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    We do if people see Median age is 80 and then automatically assume that everyone that has died was on the way out as the average is 80, when i reality you could have ten people in their 20's in the median age figure.

    Just talk about the mean age then rather than the 'average'.


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  • #6972
    r93kaey5p2izun
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,962 ✭✭✭r93kaey5p2izun


    I think we just have to accept that there are different meanings for the word average, whether scientific or colloquial. Some sources refer to average as interchangeable with measures of central tendency, and therefore use it to encompass mean, median and mode. Others pin average as just being the mean. People just need to stick with more precise language as much as possible and accept there's a lot of variation in how the word average is interpreted and used. By all means seek clarity on whether it is mean or median being quoted, but it's not helpful to keep having the same debate over whether the word average is being used correctly or not.


  • #6973
    Mental Mickey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,696 ✭✭✭✭Mental Mickey


    owlbethere wrote: »
    I missed today's briefing. I got the number of cases and the death numbers - them numbers - fcuking hell.

    What did I miss with the briefing? Was there anything important?

    It's on RTE news now


  • #6974
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,535 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    Philip Nolan said for every 5 cases we detect there are 5 we don't detect.

    So the real number of new cases today is 1000.

    Not my stats, theirs.


  • #6975
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,778 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    That 51000 number cannot be true based on what Colm Henry just said.


  • #6976
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,422 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Deleted User wrote: »
    *Clicks into main Covid thread for the first time in weeks*

    *Sees trolls still thriving* :(

    *Sees Beasty's latest post* :D

    Beasty is doing a sterling job, I applaud him. Those petty cranks will have to divert their impotent rage elsewhere.


  • #6977
    Sober Crappy Chemis
    Closed Accounts Posts: 461 ✭✭Sober Crappy Chemis


    EDit wrote: »
    Do we really need a daily argument over the definition of median?

    Speaking as a pedantic mathematician, yes - absolutely.


  • #6978
    froog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,784 ✭✭✭froog


    ireland are now 13th in the world for deaths per capita. taking out the micro countries we are 10th.


  • #6979
    bekker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 912 ✭✭✭bekker


    Ace2007 wrote: »
    For those who don't understand the median number - below examples might help

    91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 90 86 85 84 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 40 38 35 33 32 31

    The medium in the above list of numbers is 84, the average is 69.

    The medium in the below list of numbers is 84, the average is 86.

    91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 91 90 86 85 84 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83 83
    In the 'above' set of values the median is 84.5.

    You have an even number of values so median is the average of the two middle values.


  • #6980
    Strazdas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,733 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    They're distancing themselves from referencing a surge, if the curve is flattened they dont expect a surge and thats the goal

    Yes, if you have a very flat curve, you can't actually have a 'peak' or 'surge'.


  • #6981
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,589 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    NH2013 wrote: »
    No, median is not an average.

    Median is the middle value when all numbers are organised and sorted according to size. Median of 5,9,16 is 9.

    Mean/Average is all the values added together and then divided by the total number of values counted. Mean/Average of 5,9,16 is 10.

    This is primary school stuff.

    They're both different averages.
    An average is a way of measuring a set.
    Eg mean, mode, median.
    All averages.

    But people tend to use the word average in everyday language to describe the mean.


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  • #6982
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,467 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Nonoperational wrote: »
    From an ICU and hospital capacity point of view it is busy but not disastrous. The standard ICUs are filling up but it’s still at the point of using HDU as extra capacity. That is essentially the first phase of the icu expansion plan. Moving to converted wards etc adds lots of capacity but we don’t need to do that yet.

    Of note we extubated 3 people in the past few days and they left ICU. Some positivity at least.

    Great to hear, thank you for all the work you and your colleagues do


  • #6983
    Tea Shock
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 345 ✭✭Tea Shock


    Some interesting stats based on reported Covid19 attributed deaths so far:

    Rep. Ireland: 1 death per 18.6k citizens
    N. Ireland: 1 death per 22.9k citizens
    All of UK: 1 death per 9.4k citizens
    USA: 1 death per 20.7k citizens
    Italy: 1 death per 3.3k citizens
    Spain: 1 death per 3k citizens
    France: 1 death per 6.2k citizens
    Germany: 1 death per 35.3k citizens
    Sweden: 1 death per 12.9k citizens
    Netherlands: 1 death per 7.2k citizens
    China: 1 death per 415.6k citizens


  • #6984
    marno21
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 14,700 Mod ✭✭✭✭marno21


    Some posters need to be more specific when talking about "peaks".

    Which peak is it?

    1. Peak daily infections
    2. Peak daily confirmed cases
    3. Peak daily ICU admissions
    4. Peak daily deaths

    These all happen at different stages. We would hope we are roughly at Peak 1 now. Peak 3 and 4 are several weeks after Peak 1.


  • #6985
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,171 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    Michael Martin better be right with they tweet or he can feck off triyng to score political points with fake news.


  • #6986
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,467 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    That 51000 number cannot be true based on what Colm Henry just said.

    Yeah not a chance. About 2k he said being referred for testing each day and they have enough centres and swabs to do the tests


  • #6987
    flazio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,684 ✭✭✭✭flazio


    To explain median.
    25 people died in a day, the median was 81.
    12 people who died were under 81 years of age and 12 people were above 81 years of age. That could be any age between a newborn and the oldest living person in Ireland.

    This too shall pass.



  • #6988
    Cork Boy 53
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    NDWC wrote: »
    The 51,000 figure has to be BS surely

    It seems to be accurate.


  • #6989
    Beasty
    Administrators, Social & Fun Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 78,465 Admin ✭✭✭✭✭Beasty


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    That 51000 number cannot be true based on what Colm Henry just said.

    Even if they ever did get up to 5,000 a day most of that backlog will be over it by the time they get tested, although at this rate it could be 100,000 in another week or so (given they scrapped the last list early last week and started afresh)


  • #6990
    helimachoptor
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 21,755 Mod ✭✭✭✭helimachoptor


    JP Liz V1 wrote: »
    So 15,000 tests a day and the contact tracing app is never going to materialise

    It's so Irish, ffs can they not stick to what they said they'd do


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  • #6991
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Ireland has overtaken both Iran and the US in number of deaths per capita, it is one of the highest in the world


This discussion has been closed.
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