CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

Pseudonym121 · 09-04-2020 02:35PM

seamus wrote: »

The main issue here is not really infection spread, presuming those who go down will isolate like they have been doing at home.

Really? Your faith in the willingness of these people to behave sensibly in one area when they’ve shown themselves to be selfish and irresponsible in another far exceeds mine clearly.

As to this being overblown. You clearly haven’t watched people die by slowly suffocating to death. It might change your mind.

AtomicHorror · 09-04-2020 02:35PM

speckle wrote: »

strange question can a rna virus mutate backwards. ie infects bat a then bat b. then decides it better off reverting to bat a strain if it wants to propagate. or would it be just a fluke that it reverts back. gosh I hope someone understands what I am trying to say.

It would never have left bats in the first place, it's in both species. It may do better in one or other host, but it doesn't leave one to go to another.

gabeeg · 09-04-2020 02:36PM

speckle wrote: »

strange question can a rna virus mutate backwards. ie infects bat a then bat b. then decides it better off reverting to bat a strain if it wants to propagate. or would it be just a fluke that it reverts back. gosh I hope someone understands what I am trying to say.

It has no will. It has no thoughts. It just replicates, and slowly mutates

Pseudonym121 · 09-04-2020 02:37PM

speckle wrote: »

strange question can a rna virus mutate backwards. ie infects bat a then bat b. then decides it better off reverting to bat a strain if it wants to propagate. or would it be just a fluke that it reverts back. gosh I hope someone understands what I am trying to say.

Viral mutation is random. There’s no “deciding” to go one way or the other. Mutations just happen and those which are better adaptations to the host organism are selected for in terms of spreading farther.

tobefrank321 · 09-04-2020 02:38PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Our comparison should always be with the countries of western europe. Apples and Oranges. Had this started in summer Croatia would have been much worse

Had this started in any country during summer it would have been much worse. The season is not relevant.

What is relevant is how various countries have managed the spread and lessons to be learned.

There's not much to be learned from western European countries given their poor efforts at stopping the spread. Finland seems to be doing reasonably well but their cases are starting to creep up.

AtomicHorror · 09-04-2020 02:39PM

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

You have the implications of false positive and false negative mixed up.

A false positive will result in someone thinking they have it when they don’t. So they’ll unnecessarily isolate.

A false negative will result in the person going out and about and spreading it unwittingly.

No, I haven't mixed them up. Not in the case of the antibody tests proposed for self/home testing. Those are IgG tests to determine if a person has humoral memory. In other words, were previously infected but now cleared, immune and safe to go out into the world.

So a false positive is a bad thing in this scenario.

It's the other way around for the PCR they do to detect infection. In that scenario, a false negative is the more dangerous outcome.

tom1ie · 09-04-2020 02:40PM

Cw85 wrote: »

Given that we are getting circa 400 positive test results a day from 1500 tests does that mean we would see ten times that (4000) if we were testing what we had planned i.e 15000 a day? If so the real numbers when we ramp up testing could be scary and result in this lockdown going on for quite some time

This lockdown will go on for some time anyway.

auspicious · 09-04-2020 02:40PM

speckle wrote: »

strange question can a rna virus mutate backwards. ie infects bat a then bat b. then decides it better off reverting to bat a strain if it wants to propagate. or would it be just a fluke that it reverts back. gosh I hope someone understands what I am trying to say.

Viruses aren't so intelligent. Theyll gain a foothold wherever they can. They mutate as a means to mitigate host defence.

tobefrank321 · 09-04-2020 02:40PM

marno21 wrote: »

Impressive recovery from a 107 year old in the Netherlands

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1248225575166193664

Survived WW1, great Depression, WW2 when famine was common in Netherlands and now Covid19 as well as numerous other flus and the like.

Hugely impressive.

Tea Shock · 09-04-2020 02:41PM

Cw85 wrote: »

Given that we are getting circa 400 positive test results a day from 1500 tests does that mean we would see ten times that (4000) if we were testing what we had planned i.e 15000 a day? If so the real numbers when we ramp up testing could be scary and result in this lockdown going on for quite some time

I wouldnt think so

Firstly, we may be testing 1,500 a day (not saying that's the correct number), but we're probably still getting far less actual results per day that the number who are being tested.

Secondly, the people being tested are more likely to test positive than the one's who are missing out - that was the whole idea of changing the criteria to get a test. So the more people you test, I would think the % of results with a positive outcome would decrease.

Pseudonym121 · 09-04-2020 02:41PM

AtomicHorror wrote: »

No, I haven't mixed them up. Not in the case of the antibody tests proposed for self/home testing. Those are IgG tests to determine if a person has humoral memory. In other words, were previously infected but now cleared, immune and safe to go out into the world.

So a false positive is a bad thing in this scenario.

It's the other way around for the PCR they do to detect infection. In that scenario, a false negative is the more dangerous outcome.

Ah my bad. I hadn’t seen that you were referring to antibodies. I had assumed you were talking about the pcr test. Sorry.

I’ve edited the initial reply to remove the erroneous section as I don’t want to inadvertently mislead anyone.

Cw85 · 09-04-2020 02:41PM

tom1ie wrote: »

This lockdown will go on for some time anyway.

I think the middle of May should see some restrictions. Fingers crossed anyway I've a holiday to Greece on the 4th of June and am holding on to any hope I can

AtomicHorror · 09-04-2020 02:42PM

cj maxx wrote: »

The same you do if you're going to the shop next door.
Gloves, social distancing and sanitiser/ wash hands.
In fact it's very easy to contact trace. I left X , arrived at Y and only stopped at Z.
I seen no one only the shop clerk from a safe distance.
Easy peasy

Gloves are usually a terrible idea for laypeople. They just don't have the ingrained habits to use them safely and they end up cross-contaminating worse than if they just washed their hands.

And thinking about it in terms of how easy or difficult the contract tracing would be? This is a crazily blaze attitude you're displaying, quite frankly.

Just Saying · 09-04-2020 02:43PM

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Only where the person is confirmed to have had COVID-19 and then died.

If they died but COVID-19 test results are still awaited then they are not included in the HSE figures.

The devil, in statistics and epidemiology, is very much in the details. And I refer you to admitted delays in receiving test results and ask you to consider how many people who were in nursing homes were tested, haven’t had their tests processed and have died in the meantime.

I'm fairly sure the CMO has stated at a daily briefing that any persons who die in a nursing home that subsequently gets a positive result for Covid-19 is added to the deaths figure on the day the positive result is received.

While I would be fairly sure some Covid-19 deaths are missed in the stats I would very much doubt it's on the same scale as other countries and therefore your multiple is too high.

Micky 32 · 09-04-2020 02:46PM

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Gloves are usually a terrible idea for laypeople. They just don't have the ingrained habits to use them safely and they end up cross-contaminating worse than if they just washed their hands.

And thinking about it in terms of how easy or difficult the contract tracing would be? This is a crazily blaze attitude you're displaying, quite frankly.

I use a pair of gloves for each job i go to. Some say they aren’t much use but i find when i wear gloves i’m more conscious of my hands and never touch my face.

tobefrank321 · 09-04-2020 02:47PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Move the country 3.5hours from the nearest landmass?

If you are an island it doesn't matter if you are 10 hours or 30 minutes from the nearest landmass. Being an island means you have far more limited entry points to deal with. Enabling you to better control the ones you do have. You won't stop everyone, but you will reduce people coming in substantially with the right measures and those who do come in you can better isolate.

Its almost like many people don't want to do anything to stop the spread of covid19 at this stage. Can't do this, can't do that. No point stopping such and such.

No wonder we are totally screwed.

Just Saying · 09-04-2020 02:47PM

Cw85 wrote: »

Given that we are getting circa 400 positive test results a day from 1500 tests does that mean we would see ten times that (4000) if we were testing what we had planned i.e 15000 a day? If so the real numbers when we ramp up testing could be scary and result in this lockdown going on for quite some time

The testing currently is targeted at hospitals and health workers.The extra tests would come from groups outside these settings and obviously less symptomatic.The positive test rates among the extra tests would be much lower.

Tony EH · 09-04-2020 02:47PM

pjohnson wrote: »

God knows what you would catch.

Don't worry. You can't catch stupid.

awec · 09-04-2020 02:49PM

Cw85 wrote: »

Given that we are getting circa 400 positive test results a day from 1500 tests does that mean we would see ten times that (4000) if we were testing what we had planned i.e 15000 a day? If so the real numbers when we ramp up testing could be scary and result in this lockdown going on for quite some time

No.

The positive rate among those who are tested is biased toward positive, since we only test people who we think have the virus.

You cannot then take that same percentage and apply it to those who we don't currently test.

If we tested more widely the percentage positive would be much lower. We already saw this before we altered the test criteria.

Pseudonym121 · 09-04-2020 02:49PM

Ok your faith that the Irish testing system is superior to that of other European countries by a wide margin, notwithstanding the many issues which have previously been noted with it, is noted.

10000maniacs · 09-04-2020 02:49PM

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Viral mutation is random. There’s no “deciding” to go one way or the other. Mutations just happen and those which are better adaptations to the host organism are selected for in terms of spreading farther.

The way RNA evolves is that after every reproduction there is a slight difference or mistake in the codon. If there were no mistakes, there would be no evolution. If this difference is beneficial, the strain is better at surviving and reproduces again with this change. If the change affects the strain in a negative way, the strain cannot compete with the strains that don't have this change and more than likely dies off.
That's how DNA evolution works as well.

AtomicHorror · 09-04-2020 02:51PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

I use a pair of gloves for each job i go to. Some say they aren’t much use but i find when i wear gloves i’m more conscious of my hands and never touch my face.

And maybe you know aseptic technique. I have no way of knowing and you can easily Google any probing question I would ask to try and gauge that.

Assuming you do though, you'll know that touching your face is not the issue so much as touching your wallet, cash, phone, and other sequential surfaces which you don't then decontaminate. Not to mention taking the gloves off the wrong way or removing your mask before you remove your gloves.

Most people will mess it up and still have a false sense of security.

Just Saying · 09-04-2020 02:51PM

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Ok your faith that the Irish testing system is superior to that of other European countries by a wide margin, notwithstanding the many issues which have previously been noted with it, is noted.

Is that reply to me?

Outlaw Pete · 09-04-2020 02:51PM

Outlaw Pete wrote: »

Father in law of the lead singer of James battling it in Watford.

He died, sadly.

https://twitter.com/RealTimBooth/status/1248222395887955969?s=19

splinter65 · 09-04-2020 02:52PM

Christy42 wrote: »

The US is not a left wing country. The Democrats didn't decide on it, the people decided on Biden. There is a left wing core to the Democrats but they are fundamentally Fine Gael. However 3rd parties are effectively pointless so the left wing have to go to them or be pointless as the system is simply not advanced enough to allow nuances of public opinion.

They had good candidates. Several of them young. The people didn't vote for them.

I never said it was a left wing country. It’s not. If they had just accepted that Trump was elected fair and square and that Clinton had been rejected then they had 4 years to find amongst themselves some candidates that the people who voted for a trump could’ve possibly vote for. None of those people were ever going to vote for Elizabeth Warren or Beto O’Rourke etc and telling them that they were racist/homophobic/bigoted etc was not going to change their minds.
There has to have been some less left more middle of the road candidates then that. What a mess.

Christy42 · 09-04-2020 02:52PM

Pseudonym121 wrote: »

Ok your faith that the Irish testing system is superior to that of other European countries by a wide margin, notwithstanding the many issues which have previously been noted with it, is noted.

Do other European countries not have any testing issues? This seems to be a large premise that you are basing this on. We seem to be fairly middle of the pack in terms of numbers. I would like to be higher though.

wakka12 · 09-04-2020 02:52PM

I cant believe the amount of deaths in Scotland the last few days. 70-80 deaths every day the last few days, that is surely one of the highest number of deaths per capita in the world considering the country only has a size of 5 million? If it was the same size as Italy and France it would be the equivalent of it reporting almost 1,000 deaths daily the last 4 days in a row

Ireland has gotten off so lightly, every single one of our neighbouring countries are being absolutely devastated

polesheep · 09-04-2020 02:53PM

AtomicHorror wrote: »

Important differences though.

Diabetics take blood sugar tests every day and are well-practiced at them, so the error rate is reduced. Diabetics are a relative minority in UK and Ireland. Consequence of a false negative or a false positive is not that significant for the wider population

Pregnancy tests have a high error rate based on user error, as well as the usual false negative and false positive error. The consequence of a false negative is that you'll realize you're pregnant when your symptoms persist and you re-test. False positive, disappointment down the line.

The risk of a false negative from a home SARS-CoV-2 antibody test is nothing much- continue isolation. The risk of a false positive is that a person who is vulnerable or possibly has contagious infection goes out into the world thinking they're bulletproof.

Multiply by 10s of millions of tests and I would be extremely worried about mass screening, even if it were administered by professionals.

The thinking behind your post could be applied to just about anything in life. For example, I could worry that a percentage of the cars belting along the motorway might have faulty brakes. If a home test for antibodies is produced that gives reliable results within an acceptable margin of error, then there is no reason not to use it. It can always be backed up by high quality lab tests on random samples to confirm accuracy.

polesheep · 09-04-2020 02:55PM

marno21 wrote: »

Impressive recovery from a 107 year old in the Netherlands

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1248225575166193664

She refused to pop her clogs. Fair dues to her.

auspicious · 09-04-2020 02:56PM

marno21 wrote: »

Impressive recovery from a 107 year old in the Netherlands

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1248225575166193664

That's great news.
But do we know why she found it easier to overcome? Was it down to low blood pressure, no heart disease, something special included or excluded from the diet?
It's still early day's yet I know to have a detailed breakdown of varying survivors and I hope plenty will waive their anonymity to their confidential medical history.

CoVid19 Part XIV - 8,089 in ROI (288 deaths) 1,589 in NI (92 deaths) (10/04) Read OP

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