CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

fullstop · 03-04-2020 05:05PM

Cody montana wrote: »

Surge?

Are you going to say this every day now?

take everything · 03-04-2020 05:05PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

George asked a good question - when is the surge, and why, if we are minimising our contacts. Is it possible to figure out when?

Answer - "we don't know, we don't know how successful we will be in terms of growth - currently 10% which is better than 33% at outset.

But if we continue to grow at 10% we will have a significant challenge, so need to reduce that 10%.

So if it is a wave, the lower it grows, the lower the peak, and further into the future the peak is. Next 7 days crucial right now. We think next week is time for assessment of the measures and allow us to make better estimates of the question being asked."

Surely any growth (or over 1) means just pushing the peak further out. The only way this is going away is if there is negative growth (under 1).

The PPE ****up is like a Monty Python sketch.

bilston · 03-04-2020 05:06PM

Dr. Colossus wrote: »

It's not meaningless. They are the most accurate stats available.

It is completely meaningless.

The 10% mortality rate bears no relation whatsoever to the reality. It's not even close.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 03-04-2020 05:07PM

I like that one of the journalists asked for the medium for all figures and Tony said they could calculate in future.

froog · 03-04-2020 05:07PM

hmmm wrote: »

It's not a "complete and utter disaster", the testing program is very well conceived and quickly scaled up. We have limited supplies of critical equipment, the same as the rest of the world, but your negativity is bull****.

the lack of reagents is mostly a smokescreen. we were testing everyone with a sniffle or headache in the first few weeks and it quickly got way out of control. so they had to tighten testing criteria, but the damage was already done. lots of people that likely actually were infected never got tested. i personally know several people that have been waiting for a test or results for over a week. i have heard many other stories of people promised tests who never got them. a lot of people are not even bothering calling for a test now. almost certainly the number of infected is several times what the declared figure is. not to mention the constant evasion of how many have been tested at the press conference. as i type right now I hear tony h refusing to confirm how many healthcare workers have been tested.

i'm not sure how in any way you could call this a success.

podgeandrodge · 03-04-2020 05:07PM

take everything wrote: »

Surely any growth (or over 1) means just pushing the peak further out. The only way this is going away is if there is negative growth (under 1).

The PPE ****up is like a Monty Python sketch.

Yes, he said that in my quote - the peak will go further out. It's about slowing down the pressure on the health service rather than making it go away right now is my understanding.

JP Liz V1 · 03-04-2020 05:08PM

fritzelly wrote: »

These figures are not nice and we still have 2 weeks to the anticipated peak

When is the surge / peak expected, April 19th?

pjohnson · 03-04-2020 05:09PM

The highest death toll yet as dribblers here are trying to claim we can start easing restrictions.

Bizarre ignorance.

easypazz · 03-04-2020 05:09PM

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Not sure we can say 'Job Done' when we don't have accurate testing figures yet. There's still the backlog factor.

Good to see the ICU numbers slow in increase though.

The backlog could be good. Todays 424 could have been tested on average a week ago, and when test lead times reduce we may see lower positives, the peak might be passed.

ICU beds and deaths are not showing a surge.

Heres hoping.

bekker · 03-04-2020 05:09PM

Tony Holohan just did a Pontius Pilate on nursing homes during a response to question.

Stheno · 03-04-2020 05:10PM

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I like that one of the journalists asked for the medium for all figures and Tony said they could calculate in future.

The mean he asked for

Of the 46 who are no longer in ICU 15 died and 31 recovered.

So 66% recovered

irishlad. · 03-04-2020 05:10PM

People are so quick to point out the minor % of dodgy PPE or the testing problems we're having in this country.

It has just been stated that we're currently able to test everyone that's presenting for testing.

We're doing good lads, no where near a doomsday scenario here!

Itssoeasy · 03-04-2020 05:10PM

Why is George lee covering this story ? He's the most depressing person RTÉ have. He doesn't help the mood. I know fergal bowers needs a break but surely there was someone else who could be covering this ?

easypazz · 03-04-2020 05:10PM

pjohnson wrote: »

The highest death toll yet as dribblers here are trying to claim we can start easing restrictions.

Did George Lee not just say 87% of deaths are outside ICU, as in many of them in nursing homes, old and frail anyway.

Assetbacked · 03-04-2020 05:11PM

pjohnson wrote: »

The highest death toll yet as dribblers here are trying to claim we can start easing restrictions.

Bizarre ignorance.

The restrictive measures won't have shown up in the data yet. Talk of easing or keeping them as they are (or stricture measures) is premature in both instances. Arguably we are close to peaking right now.

podgeandrodge · 03-04-2020 05:11PM

irishlad. wrote: »

People are so quick to point out the minor % of dodgy PPE or the testing problems we're having in this country.

It has just been stated that we're currently able to test everyone that's presenting for testing.

We're doing good lads, no where near a doomsday scenario here!

Hey! This is no time for positivity!!

hmmm · 03-04-2020 05:12PM

froog wrote: »

the lack of reagents is mostly a smokescreen. we were testing everyone with a sniffle or headache in the first few weeks and it quickly got way out of control. so they had to tighten testing criteria, but the damage was already done. lots of people that likely actually were infected never got tested. i personally know several people that have been waiting for a test or results for over a week. i have heard many other stories of people promised tests who never got them. a lot of people are not even bothering calling for a test now. almost certainly the number of infected is several times what the declared figure is. not to mention the constant evasion of how many have been tested at the press conference. as i type right now I hear tony h refusing to confirm how many healthcare workers have been tested.

i'm not sure how in any way you could call this a success.

The HSE can't win. Everyone with a sniffle rang them to get a test, and flooded the system with hypochondriacs. The HSE changed the testing criteria and got criticised for not testing everyone. Now you're criticising for testing too many.

Captain hindsights everywhere. I like our current testing approach, and it's the only way we will got out this - probably with the addition of serological testing to see the extent of spread.

RugbyLad11 · 03-04-2020 05:13PM

So only 15 of our 120 deaths were from ICU, they must've been in nursing homes

Naggdefy · 03-04-2020 05:14PM

Beasty wrote: »

Why do people keep repeating this allegation?

It was reported they welded doors to ensure only one access/exit point - it was to monitor/restrict movements. Not very nice, but not a literal "lock-in"

Do you trust their figures?

Strazdas · 03-04-2020 05:14PM

One very encouraging sign is that only one extra person seems to have been admitted to ICU in a 24 hour period (even though these numbers are not quite up to date as Tony says).

Vicxas · 03-04-2020 05:14PM

424 new cases. Surge definitely happening

RobertKK · 03-04-2020 05:14PM

We were forewarned about the problems of the PPE and other virus related stuff from China, given the experience of the Netherlands, Spain, Czech Republic...

froog · 03-04-2020 05:15PM

hmmm wrote: »

The HSE can't win. Everyone with a sniffle rang them to get a test, and flooded the system with hypochondriacs. The HSE changed the testing criteria and got criticised for not testing everyone. Now you're criticising for testing too many.

Captain hindsights everywhere. I like our current testing approach, and it's the only way we will got out this - probably with the addition of serological testing to see the extent of spread.

i think the HSE has done a good job on all other fronts to be honest. but testing has been a complete joke right from the start and deserves to be called out.

micks_address · 03-04-2020 05:15PM

Apologies if asked and answered but how many are currently in icu with covid?

podgeandrodge · 03-04-2020 05:15PM

Vicxas wrote: »

424 new cases. Surge definitely happening

Based on?

Stheno · 03-04-2020 05:15PM

micks_address wrote: »

Apologies if asked and answered but how many are currently in icu with covid?

110

take everything · 03-04-2020 05:16PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Why is George lee covering this story ? He's the most depressing person RTÉ have. He doesn't help the mood. I know fergal bowers needs a break but surely there was someone else who could be covering this ?

I'm also surprised he's a Science correspondent.
Does anyone know if he has a Science qualification.
I thought he was an economist/economic commentator

easypazz · 03-04-2020 05:16PM

RugbyLad11 wrote: »

So only 15 of our 120 deaths were from ICU, they must've been in nursing homes

Pretty much, people that were too weak anyway to be sent to ICU.

Strip out nursing home deaths and cases and our numbers would be very good.

Strazdas · 03-04-2020 05:16PM

micks_address wrote: »

Apologies if asked and answered but how many are currently in icu with covid?

110 (up one on yesterday's number of 109).

pjohnson · 03-04-2020 05:16PM

easypazz wrote: »

Did George Lee not just say 87% of deaths are outside ICU, as in many of them in nursing homes, old and frail anyway.

And that's relevant how? People in nursing homes dont deserve this.

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP