CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

gmisk · 02-04-2020 10:13PM

The cause of coronavirus according to a dup councillor....gay people and abortion...I should have guessed!
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/dup-politician-did-not-intend-to-cause-hurt-when-linking-coronavirus-to-abortion-law-1.4219288

tuxy · 02-04-2020 10:13PM

kenmc wrote: »

Shoot on sight. If there's a person carrying the virus at the time, oopsie.

No need to do that. Info does not get in or out of the country.
Some poor countries could even welcome the increased production from the death of people too old to work.

igCorcaigh · 02-04-2020 10:14PM

macmahon wrote: »

Thankyou. But so far this isn't and it seems to be going on for a long time. I was up at the CUH today for an appointment and everything was quiet? Never seen the place so quiet!

Lots of non urgent things have been cancelled.

macmahon · 02-04-2020 10:14PM

Popeleo wrote: »

Because of the exponential growth that is like nothing else we have experienced in several generations.

When the capacity of the hospital ICUs etc. is reached, the death rate can go from c. 1% to c. 10%. and it won't be just the old and frail that cannot be saved.

Thankyou. I understand your last sentence but not your first! Where is this exponential growth?

1800_Ladladlad · 02-04-2020 10:15PM

Thank fook we're all not famous or we'd all have that Covid19 by now .... or even worse, a fatality.

Bobtheman · 02-04-2020 10:16PM

I was a bit surprised at the Department of education being so adamant that they will run the LC somehow in June. By hook or by crook. They said. Reminds me of the promise that the bank bailout would be only 8 billion . Ah the memories. Great times.

igCorcaigh · 02-04-2020 10:17PM

Martina1991 wrote: »

Just because a facility has a laboratory does not mean it can perform diagnostic testing.

Just because reagents can be bought from suppliers does not mean they can perform diagnostic testing.

Testing is carried out by Medical Scientists. These professionals have to have a BSc in Biomedical Science that is accredited by the Academy of Medical Laboratory Scientists. It is estimated ~70% of the profession have also obtained their MSc.

There are ~2,000 Medical Scientists employed in Ireland working in public and private hospitals.

This profession is specifically trained and qualified to perform high complexity diagnostic testing. It cannot be just open to any place or anyone.

Exactly. And any qualified biomedical laboratory has statistical metrics that are monitored. It's not like anyone with the right equipment can just open shop.

bekker · 02-04-2020 10:18PM

Strazdas wrote: »

In fairness, very little was known about the virus and transmission at that stage. There was talk from scientists you would need to spend around 15 minutes with a person before you could catch Covid from them.

'Talk from scientists', what scientists? what forum? what specialities? etc. etc.

Microdroplet transmission, expiration etc has been in the frame from the beginning.

eagle eye · 02-04-2020 10:18PM

stephenjmcd wrote:

At some point a decision will be taken to get back to as close as possible to every day life. Be it June, July whenever. But you can't come out and say a more lethal wave as nobody has any proof of that

The simple solution is complete lockdown which means a temporary border with NI, nobody in or out of the country, unless out means you stay gone, and we'll be clear of this thing before June.
Of course that sorts this country out and not the rest of the world. We need to maintain the lockdown as far as entry to the country is concerned until the rest of the world is clear of it.

We can all be back at work by June though if they do things right.

macmahon · 02-04-2020 10:18PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Because of how it rises exponentially. It's not the numbers of people currently dying from this is the concern, tragic as it is. But how it could swamp our health services. And, it's a new illness. How things could go from this now to something much worse very quickly, if we don't act.

It's a very interesting thing McM. It involves epidemiology, risk management, politics, medicine.... There are good reasons for the current measures.

Thankyou for your explanation....Im seeing politics as more of an issue!

Etc · 02-04-2020 10:19PM

Love this bit,

"I was laughed at and mocked by some but as l said at the time they laughed at Noah until the rain started"

Insightful stuff as always from the DUP

cnocbui · 02-04-2020 10:19PM

https://twitter.com/FaheemYounus/status/1245547129831067649

Interesting.

igCorcaigh · 02-04-2020 10:19PM

macmahon wrote: »

Thankyou. I understand your last sentence but not your first! Where is this exponential growth?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

stephenjmcd · 02-04-2020 10:20PM

Bobtheman wrote: »

I was a bit surprised at the Department of education being so adamant that they will run the LC somehow in June. By hook or by crook. They said. Reminds me of the promise that the bank bailout would be only 8 billion . Ah the memories. Great times.

Because chances are by June there will be some sort of reopening of the country. I'd move them to July if it was at all possible. Students just need clarity really, all the work is built towards exam day so they need to know the dates for the exams

Just Saying · 02-04-2020 10:20PM

Achasanai wrote: »

I presume the poster means per head of population. We're not quite at Belgium's level (when comparing in terms of days since the first death) but far ahead of the UK, Sweden, Italy, US on day 9 (per head of population).

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Maybe I am not changing some setting but those graphs relate to cases.Cases cannot be compared accurately because of the gulf in tests or head of population.

igCorcaigh · 02-04-2020 10:23PM

macmahon wrote: »

Thankyou for your explanation....Im seeing politics as more of an issue!

Yes. Me too.

I'm just highlighting how something like a pandemic has cross cutting concerns. Whatever field you are interested in, it will affect it.

I guess for me, that's what makes it interesting.
But hey, this is how I survive, I'm quite detached from things. Even in tough times.

stephenjmcd · 02-04-2020 10:24PM

eagle eye wrote: »

The simple solution is complete lockdown which means a temporary border with NI, nobody in or out of the country, unless out means you stay gone, and we'll be clear of this thing before June.
Of course that sorts this country out and not the rest of the world. We need to maintain the lockdown as far as entry to the country is concerned until the rest of the world is clear of it.

We can all be back at work by June though if they do things right.

Your having a laugh right ? Create borders, stop the flow of goods into the country, a temporary border a sitting duck for paramilitary attacks. Theres not a hope of the countries borders being closed, we wouldn't even have the man power to impose a border with NI. Think about this logically.

Theres really nobody coming into the country through the airports as it is anyway

amadangomor · 02-04-2020 10:25PM

macmahon wrote: »

Thankyou. I understand your last sentence but not your first! Where is this exponential growth?

If we had done nothing and had no restrictions you would have seen exponential growth. Our ICU's would be overwhelmed by now and we would have many excess deaths.

Being realistic there is still a good chance even with the restrictions we have in place that we will get to a stage where our health service will be overwhelmed in a few weeks. Then we will see those excess deaths.

It's that serious!

Roger_007 · 02-04-2020 10:28PM

There is something very strange going on with the health service. The A&Es are empty, the wards are virtually empty, (according to Dr Holohan anyway). What happened to all the patients who were on trolleys a couple of weeks ago. Were there a lot of people going to A&E who didn’t need to, or are they afraid to go now?
Is it possible that people are so scared of getting Covid19 that they not going to their doctors or to A&E even when they really should. Could this be an unintended consequence of the ‘cocoon’ policy?

igCorcaigh · 02-04-2020 10:29PM

Even with restrictions, the growth is still exponential, just at a slower rate. The doubling time slows, but its still a doubling time.

But, the plus side of exponential growth, means there is also exponential decay. Once we get the R0 below 1, the cases drop to zero very quickly. That's what we have seen in China.

OK, don't argue about the veracity of Chinese figures, I'm talking about the maths

josip · 02-04-2020 10:30PM

Funsterdelux wrote: »

Whats this lady on primetime got against masks.

They thought us how to wash our hands

They thought us how to keep our distance

They can teach us how to wear a f00king mask

Plenty of other things they could teach us too...

Strazdas · 02-04-2020 10:31PM

bekker wrote: »

'Talk from scientists', what scientists? what forum? what specialities? etc. etc.

Microdroplet transmission, expiration etc has been in the frame from the beginning.

The "two metre rule" wasn't being discussed in the first week in February. If I remember correctly, it only began to emerge towards the end of the month.

Curious_Case · 02-04-2020 10:31PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

I'd say July at the earliest and then another shutdown in October for longer this time with the much more letal second wave.

Personally, I think that a second wave would, by definition, be less serious.

Three reasons:

The counry would be more prepared 2nd time around.

The country would be more vigilant going forward from 1st wave.

For the reasons listed above, a 2nd wave would not be able to establish itself to the extent that the 1st wave did as it would be noticed earlier and acted upon with greater efficiency.

Not to mention the fact that some of the population would already have been exposed to, and recovered from (or had no symptoms from) the 1st wave.

tuxy · 02-04-2020 10:31PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

There is something very strange going on with the health service. The A&Es are empty, the wards are virtually empty, (according to Dr Holohan anyway). What happened to all the patients who were on trolleys a couple of weeks ago. Were there a lot of people going to A&E who didn’t need to, or are they afraid to go now?
Is it possible that people are so scared of getting Covid19 that they not going to their doctors or to A&E even when they really should. Could this be an unintended consequence of the ‘cocoon’ policy?

So many factors. Some do not want to go because they think it's wasting time of the medical staff. Many people who go to A&E actually have mental health issues.
Drinking at home causes less injuries than drinking in pubs and on the streets.

Leo warned in his speech today that if you have medical issues you need to have it looks at. They are aware people are avoiding hospitals.

gabeeg · 02-04-2020 10:33PM

Curious_Case wrote: »

Personally, I think that a second wave would, by definition, be less serious.

Three reasons:

More prepared 2nd time around

More vigilant going forward from 1st wave

For the reasons listed above, a 2nd wave would not be able to establish itself to the extent that the 1st wave did as it would be noticed earlier and acted upon with greater efficiency.

what if it hits a population in the grip of an economic depression?

igCorcaigh · 02-04-2020 10:33PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

There is something very strange going on with the health service. The A&Es are empty, the wards are virtually empty, (according to Dr Holohan anyway). What happened to all the patients who were on trolleys a couple of weeks ago. Were there a lot of people going to A&E who didn’t need to, or are they afraid to go now?
Is it possible that people are so scared of getting Covid19 that they not going to their doctors or to A&E even when they really should. Could this be an unintended consequence of the ‘cocoon’ policy?

I'm curious about this too.

Maybe all the things you mentioned.

Maybe people not being referred to AE because they can't or won't see their GP?

Bed blockers sent home?

Less private patients being kept in by the hospitals because ching ching?

I don't know.

amadangomor · 02-04-2020 10:34PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

There is something very strange going on with the health service. The A&Es are empty, the wards are virtually empty, (according to Dr Holohan anyway). What happened to all the patients who were on trolleys a couple of weeks ago. Were there a lot of people going to A&E who didn’t need to, or are they afraid to go now?
Is it possible that people are so scared of getting Covid19 that they not going to their doctors or to A&E even when they really should. Could this be an unintended consequence of the ‘cocoon’ policy?

Hopefully we come up with solutions in the future that will reduce the numbers going to A&E unnecessarily in the future.

Maybe some intermediate health clinics to triage better. Of course GPS need to look at their practice of sending people too quickly to A&E also.

On the other side of the coin there could be people now who genuinely should be there and are too scared to go/don't want to waste doctors time.

New Home · 02-04-2020 10:35PM

Words I'm now hating due to these threads:

1. "Scaremongering"
2. "Triage"
3. "Cocooning"
4. "Social distancing" (ok, fair enough, that's two words)
5. "Doomsayers"

I'm sure I had more to add to the list, but I'll do that as soon as I remember them.

Please, bring back "Moist".

stephenjmcd · 02-04-2020 10:35PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Even with restrictions, the growth is still exponential, just at a slower rate. The doubling time slows, but its still a doubling time.

But, the plus side of exponential growth, means there is also exponential decay. Once we get the R0 below 1, the cases drop to zero very quickly. That's what we have seen in China.

OK, don't argue about the veracity of Chinese figures, I'm talking about the maths

Its not possible to conclude growth is exponential even with restrictions. Cases being announced were picked up at least 2 weeks ago before any tough measures came in. We wont see the reflection of current measures for at least another week to 2 weeks which the CMO has been pretty clear about.

We've cut the average close contacts from 20 to 5 to 3 which would suggest growth will slow.

As for china I've given up even paying attention to anything coming out of there, theres not a chance those figures at legitimate

Podge201 · 02-04-2020 10:35PM

New Home wrote: »

Words I'm now hating due to these threads:

1. "Scaremongering"
2. "Triage"
3. "Cocooning"
4. "Social distancing" (ok, fair enough, that's two words)
5. "Doomsayers"

I'm sure I had more to add to the list, but I'll do that as soon as I remember them.

Please, bring back "Moist".

Fingering

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP