CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

eagle eye · 02-04-2020 04:59PM

pc7 wrote: »

Ok hope this doesn’t come across wrong in text, but is it good news the daily death figure isn’t rising? (RIP to all), isn’t that a good sign that maybe measures are working?

The more cases we have the more people that are going to die so while a lower death total on any given day is always good news it's likely we are in for a much higher death toll with the increased number for cases.

podgeandrodge · 02-04-2020 05:00PM

lastusername wrote: »

I'm in Dublin and out running on the roads these days to give people plenty of room, it's pretty cool to be able to do that with so little traffic!

Agree. But I find when I am out walking, it is always me that steps out into the road to give others that space. Most people over last week or so stand their ground and don't make any effort. That has been my experience anyway, maybe I am just too quick to step out in advance.

PokeHerKing · 02-04-2020 05:01PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

According to the CMO we do not have that long to go at all.

People just can’t panic in the coming days when figures go up!

It wasn't too long ago the CMO was telling us there was absolutely nothing to worry about full stop.

Just Saying · 02-04-2020 05:02PM

pc7 wrote: »

Ok hope this doesn’t come across wrong in text, but is it good news the daily death figure isn’t rising? (RIP to all), isn’t that a good sign that maybe measures are working?

I think it is especially when we are recording deaths from all Covid related cases rather than other countries which might put it down to other underlying conditions.

CitizenFloor · 02-04-2020 05:02PM

Good to hear that we report deaths when Covid19 is confirmed as present, as opposed to it being the primary cause of death. Strikes me as more transparent, and less susceptible to fudging, in terms of deaths at least.

PmMeUrDogs · 02-04-2020 05:03PM

RTE is reporting 402 new cases, 13 deaths.

That's a bigger jump than I expected in cases.

RIP to the people who've lost their lives.

YFlyer · 02-04-2020 05:03PM

Bob24 wrote: »

Yeah I think the highest risk would be for whoever baked/packaged the pizza to be contaminated and leave some droplets on the food after cooking or on the inside of the box (ideally Dominos’s could give surgical masks to whomever takes the pizzas from the oven and puts them into the boxes to alleviate that risk, but I am not sure they can).

In the grand scheme of things and assuming you’re not getting them too often it is a fairly low risk. But it is there.

You be okay consuming food.

Cork Boy 53 · 02-04-2020 05:04PM

Just Saying wrote: »

I think the variation in the number of cases could well be a result of timing differences in getting lab results...the 3 and 5 day averages are not showing dangerous levels of growth.

In addition the increases are probably the result of more stringent selection for testing and the higher percentage of positives reflect that this change of targeting is working.

Also deaths at 13 with a remarkably high median age of 92 whilst regrettable is not indicative of a problem that is going out of control.

All told I would think that they are reasonably happy with the situation in terms of the ability of the Health Service to cope.

It was stated that the median age is 82 not 92.

pjohnson · 02-04-2020 05:05PM

Coyote wrote: »

Number updated to match today's report

I have updated the % needing ICU to 6%, I also left the number of new cases going forward as the testing numbers are unsure

No Change in number

Slow Change

Big Drop in numbers

again with all of this I'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths
if anyone has questions or thinks it could be changed with better data let me know

interesting visualization of covid19
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

At this stage good luck given the general blurriness of all provided figures. Very hard to really know with how reports are changing daily re. what each number is.

wakka12 · 02-04-2020 05:05PM

Median age 92 of the deaths today omg..must have been a few centarian deaths today

Harry Palmr · 02-04-2020 05:05PM

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

It was stated that the median age is 82 not 92.

92 was stated at the opening of the presser.

marno21 · 02-04-2020 05:05PM

PokeHerKing wrote: »

It wasn't too long ago the CMO was telling us there was absolutely nothing to worry about full stop.

At the time this was the case.

When there was 1/2 cases in the country he said the risk of contracting the virus at the time in the community was low; was this not accurate?

When the schools were closed, half the country ran to Tesco and started clearing the shelves. The CMO and other authoritative figures have to be very careful with their language to avoid causing panic.

fullstop · 02-04-2020 05:05PM

endainoz wrote: »

If it takes nearly two weeks to get results, and if you factor in the incubation period it absolutely could come from Cheltenham.

Go back and read the post. They are only showing symptoms now and haven’t had test results. It’s highly unlikely.

Ace2007 · 02-04-2020 05:06PM

eagle eye wrote: »

The more cases we have the more people that are going to die so while a lower death total on any given day is always good news it's likely we are in for a much higher death toll with the increased number for cases.

I was making this point last night - and may have come across wrong, but given the median age today I think was 92?. an increase in the number of people tested positive, won't mean an increase in the number of deaths - if the most vulnerable in our society - nursing homes etc are protected and shielded from the virus - I think the number of deaths will fall.

conversely, if the number of elderly people who get the virus increase, then regardless of other numbers, the number of deaths will increase.

podgeandrodge · 02-04-2020 05:07PM

fr336 wrote: »

I'm guessing it wouldn't be too wise to get a takeaway such as a Domino's at the present time? Not because of contact with the driver, more infection via the food etc or am I being OTT?

YFlyer wrote: »

You be okay consuming food.

podgeandrodge wrote: »

I bring the food into the house and put it on a stool. I wash my hands and get a plate out (or have the plate out beforehand). I empty the delivered food onto my plate, without touching the plate. I then put the wrappings in the bin and again wash my hands thoroughly before holding the plate and bringing it to the table.

Maybe over the top, but it seems logical to me. But I will never give up my takeaway during this shítty times, so that is a (low) risk I am prepared to take.

I'm a little more paranoid, but about the packaging rather than the food.

lastusername · 02-04-2020 05:07PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Agree. But I find when I am out walking, it is always me that steps out into the road to give others that space. Most people over last week or so stand their ground and don't make any effort. That has been my experience anyway, maybe I am just too quick to step out in advance.

Might depend on where you live! If I'm on the outer side I tend to just stay near the edge or step out a bit, but if I'm on the inside I'm just expecting them to move naturally, and virtually everyone does.

If there are a good few people around I tend to just go onto the road altogether, I'm generally either running and if I'm walking I tend to walk faster than most people anyway.

02-04-2020 05:08PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Median age 92 of the deaths today omg..must have been a few centarian deaths today

The median age is 82. Poor George Lee has nervous exhaustion, the gaffes are piling up.

02-04-2020 05:08PM

PmMeUrDogs wrote: »

RTE is reporting 402 new cases, 13 deaths.

That's a bigger jump than I expected in cases.
.

Think of it as an 11% increase on confirmed cases.

That's encouraging.

Bear in mind there must be many more cases out there than have been tested.

But for sure if % increase on confirmed cases was trending at 30% say, this would be regarded as a disaster in train. So take your good news where you can find it.

holyhead · 02-04-2020 05:09PM

Don't foresee going back to work until at least June. This scenario isn't going away anytime soon. The authorities and health services are doing a sterling job at keeping the death toll in the Republic low. Any death is tragic and rest in peace to all.

podgeandrodge · 02-04-2020 05:09PM

lastusername wrote: »

Might depend on where you live! If I'm on the outer side I tend to just stay near the edge or step out a bit, but if I'm on the inside I'm just expecting them to move naturally, and virtually everyone does.

If there are a good few people around I tend to just go onto the road altogether, I'm generally either running and if I'm walking I tend to walk faster than most people anyway.

good point, I am normally on the outer side in preparation so I am the reason!

DisneyLover · 02-04-2020 05:09PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

The groceries I presume?

:pac::pac::pac:

podgeandrodge · 02-04-2020 05:11PM

DisneyLover wrote: »

:pac::pac::pac:

podgeandrodge wrote:

The groceries I presume?

Added the context of my hilarious joke!

frillyleaf wrote: »

I’ve been wiping mine with water mixed with a small amount of dettol for a few days now

Beasty · 02-04-2020 05:12PM

CitizenFloor wrote: »

Good to hear that we report deaths when Covid19 is confirmed as present, as opposed to it being the primary cause of death. Strikes me as more transparent, and less susceptible to fudging, in terms of deaths at least.

The problem with that approach is it may be masking a lot of deaths where there was never a test done. Equally that's not necessarily an easy figure to come up with as I cannot imagine they are doing post mortems, but there must be a number where it's suspected (and they take appropriate precautions at funerals for example) but not confirmed

Strazdas · 02-04-2020 05:12PM

CitizenFloor wrote: »

Good to hear that we report deaths when Covid19 is confirmed as present, as opposed to it being the primary cause of death. Strikes me as more transparent, and less susceptible to fudging, in terms of deaths at least.

Which means many of the 98 deceased were very sick and frail and didn't die 'of' Covid, but died with Covid in their system.

bekker · 02-04-2020 05:13PM

Strazdas wrote: »

There's a suspicion that many people are asymptomatic and might never show symptoms. But 80 dead out of 4800 population and thus 70% positive might also be in line with what you would expect.

Interesting finding, but what % of town's population are donors? What % of donor population was tested? What % population in region generally are donors?

If donors tested are representative and town not atypical, then it is further confirmation of asymptomatic and low-intensity infection cohort being a large % of the spreader.

Unfortunately included in the numbers missing are number tested and number confirmed, which would have been illuminating.

Local_Chap · 02-04-2020 05:13PM

splinter65 wrote: »

With 100 residents they’d need at least 200 staff.

Really? Doesn't seem right to me that there would be so many staff.

Completely rough estimates here but if you had a ratio of 1 carer to 8 patients. 12.5 carers for a 8 hour shift. 37.5 careers need in a day and 262.5 carer shifts a week.
I'll say 4 registered nurses on at any one time. 12 nurses needed a day and 84 nurse shifts a week.

Giving each carer a 40 hour week is 52.5 carers.
Each nurse a 40 hour week is 17 nurses.
To allow for annual leave, sickness, part time etc I'll increase total of both by 50%. That's 105 carers/nurses in total. Would there be another 95 staff between cleaners, chefs, admin etc?

iamwhoiam · 02-04-2020 05:13PM

Could RTE be anymore gloomy . They are only short of pointing to bridges we can jump off

fullstop · 02-04-2020 05:13PM

eagle eye wrote: »

:rolleyes:

This is the type of action I'd like to see from my government but we'll never see it because they are afraid to look bad.

Oh yeah, telling the US to **** off would work out great for Ireland, wouldn’t it? Think of how it would boost the economy. Any excuse, eh :rolleyes:

ACitizenErased · 02-04-2020 05:15PM

Only 312 ICU beds now? I thought they said 500 before?

Antares35 · 02-04-2020 05:16PM

iamwhoiam wrote: »

Could RTE be anymore gloomy . They are only short of pointing to bridges we can jump off

And we would have to form an orderly queue to do so, with everyone 2M apart!

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP