Relaxation of restrictions

Gael23 · 02-04-2020 04:10PM

Simon Harris did say that due to the severity of the restrictions they couldn’t stay in place for much longer than 2 weeks

Gael23 · 02-04-2020 04:11PM

Lyre_Bird wrote: »

I know it's largely believed that the restrictions will last beyond Easter Sunday. But do people think there's a chance we might revert to the 'partial' lockdown that we previously had for about three days (from Tuesday 24th to Friday 27th March)?

I'm in a not-great living situation at the moment and I'm hoping to be able to move to another place after Easter Sunday. I can stick things out until Easter, but another two weeks beyond that would be difficult.

That’s what I’m hoping for. Some easing rather than total lifting

ZX7R · 02-04-2020 04:12PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I disagree. I hope that happens. I can't see it at the moment.

There is the other issue of that there is no point opening up when there is no one to trade with.

In other words we'd be taking such a risk when other countries are locked down.

So in that sense from an economic and trade perspective it's not worth it anyway.

If it was possible for things to relax it would be worth manufacturing businesses to return to business ,it would give exports a chance to build up stocks ready to export to countries who relaxed there lockdowns at later points, it would make business sence and help the economy further in the long run.
Not good business trying to play Cath up if there was an opportunity to exploit

Blueshoe · 02-04-2020 04:18PM

If it was possible to ease the restrictions they would. There is no benifit to the government having the country out of work. The longer it goes on the bigger the mess afterwards.
Once the relevant advisors are happy with the stats the restrictions will be lifted.
Until then no change.

alwald · 02-04-2020 04:20PM

What's the point of this "lockdown" if it's going to be lifted sometime this month? What have we achieved that is so reassuring for it to be lifted? Are we testing enough people with symptoms now? Are the number of new cases, deaths and ICU cases in decline?

The only country that lifted the lockdown is China and it took them almost 3 months with way stricter measures than here.

Once lifted I don't expect life to resume its normal course, pubs and restaurants will struggle to get people in so quickly as the risk of a second wave is high. The same applies to hotels/B&Bs/airline companies and the list is long.

The economic crisis will be massive but nothing can replace the human life which should and must be put first.

The entire world is in this mess so I expect various measures to be taken to speed up the economic recovery so I am not too worried about that.

TheCitizen · 02-04-2020 04:20PM

ITman88 wrote: »

You don’t have to be a cold hearted b*stard you have to be a realist who can consider more than his own selfish gain.

The studies done last week suggest a 6% slump in the economy will kill more than covid.

Neil Ferguson the guy who initially said 500k deaths in UK backtracked to say worse case 20k deaths and 2/3 of those would die regardless of corona virus.

The point of lockdown is to prevent health services coming under strain. Short term. And it’s being obeyed, even by the people suggesting the restrictions can’t continue indefinitely.

Forget quoting death rates that you think sounds apocalyptic, death occurs worldwide and obscene numbers are part of every year. 54k unaccounted deaths in Italy in 2015, it didn’t get a mention on boards. 60k odd death’s in Italy in an average March.
The numbers are tragic as every death is tragic but as of yet the numbers are not unusual in comparison to other years.

Can you link that study again there?

facehugger99 · 02-04-2020 04:22PM

easypazz wrote: »

People can decide for themselves if its safe to go back to work or not, or if its safe to visit elderly relatives or not.

Are we happy to allow people drive in a car knowing they may get killed in a crash?

The chances of an under 50 getting killed by CV are probably the same as a car crash.

People keep missing that this is about the health service being able to cope with a surge, once herd immunity builds, testing improves and the vulnerable groups are given the option to cocoon, then the rest of us can get back to trying to fix this mess.

Unfortunately a lot of people are happier being mammied by the Government than having to think for themselves.

The current younger generation are in particular seriously infantile in their outlook

odyssey06 · 02-04-2020 04:23PM

It's not just the raw numbers we need to look at. It's the clusters of infections in wider community versus specific settings. Tougher measures may be needed in some settings versus lesser restrictions in general population.
Ref the below:

Almost 100 staff members and residents in one nursing home have tested positive for coronavirus, the Dáil has heard today.
Fianna Fáil’s spokesman for health Stephen Donnelly said the nursing home has 200 staff, 70 of whom have tested positive for Covid-19. He said of the 100 residents, 19 have tested positive and four have died.
https://www.thejournal.ie/nursing-home-covid-19-5064803-Apr2020/

TheCitizen · 02-04-2020 04:25PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

But it is not just going to be over any time soon. Even if we eradicate it here, it can be brought back in. We can't just barricade the country either, someone bringing in a vital delivery could be asymptomatic and spread it again. This will be an ongoing global battle and locking everyone in Ireland at home is not going to change that. We will need a functioning economy to pay for the battle. The name of the game is control and containment, eradication may never happen.

There will be affective treatments soon

punchdrunk · 02-04-2020 04:27PM

rob316 wrote: »

Mostly people on the way out anyway, lets be honest here. Strict isolation for the most vunerable and the rest of us get on with it.

thats a fairly callous attitude to take, and an ill informed one- plenty of young people and kids getting it.

Pete_Cavan · 02-04-2020 04:31PM

TheCitizen wrote: »

There will be affective treatments soon

But that is different to a cure or vaccination. The virus will still exist. These treatments will allow for loosening of restrictions, people will still get the virus but less will die.

Padre_Pio · 02-04-2020 04:33PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Simon Harris did say that due to the severity of the restrictions they couldn’t stay in place for much longer than 2 weeks

Of course he did, and that was a lie.

They will definitely be extended for another month at least.

walshb · 02-04-2020 04:33PM

Am I right to think we will be quite restricted at least until the end April?

ixoy · 02-04-2020 04:37PM

walshb wrote: »

Am I right to think we will be quite restricted at least until the end April?

That's what I'm assuming.

At best then, in May we'll see a rollback to the first restriction wave so certain shops and businesses can re-open as long as they observe social distancing.

In June, maybe a further rollback to social distancing in restaurants possibly. Maybe something similar for state exams using bigger halls than normal for example.

Gael23 · 02-04-2020 04:37PM

walshb wrote: »

Am I right to think we will be quite restricted at least until the end April?

Yes for sure, but they need to be slightly relaxed. Society cant take 5/6 weeks of what we have now

Padre_Pio · 02-04-2020 04:46PM

bladespin wrote: »

I'd guess we do/did that everyday long before Covid.

What fatal, incurable and easily transmissable viruses were we exposed to before Covid?
Also, there are reports coming out that people who have recovered may have long term conditions such as pulmonary fibrosis.
Covid may not be a death sentence, but it's not just a flu.

ITman88 wrote: »

Neil Ferguson the guy who initially said 500k deaths in UK backtracked to say worse case 20k deaths and 2/3 of those would die regardless of corona virus.
Forget quoting death rates that you think sounds apocalyptic, death occurs worldwide and obscene numbers are part of every year. 54k unaccounted deaths in Italy in 2015, it didn’t get a mention on boards. 60k odd death’s in Italy in an average March.
The numbers are tragic as every death is tragic but as of yet the numbers are not unusual in comparison to other years.

We're all going to die. The question is when. Is it acceptable for people who may live another year or two or five or ten to die tomorrow when isolating for a few months may save them?

You're right the numbers are tragic, Italy loses about 1700 people a day under normal circumstance. But now they're losing 700-900 a day from Coronavirus. This has peaked about 10 days ago and hasn't dropped since.
It could start to decline today, or next month.

You can't say "oh well 60k people die anyways", and then explain the backlog of burials, cremations, and morgues packed high.

easypazz · 02-04-2020 04:48PM

TheCitizen wrote: »

There will be affective treatments soon

Source?

Thelonious Monk · 02-04-2020 04:49PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Yes for sure, but they need to be slightly relaxed. Society cant take 5/6 weeks of what we have now

Hopefully we don't have to but what makes you think we can't? Of course we can, Ireland has been through far worse.

niallo27 · 02-04-2020 04:51PM

Padre_Pio wrote: »

What fatal, incurable and easily transmissable viruses were we exposed to before Covid?

It's not fatal, it's far from it.

Charles Babbage · 02-04-2020 04:51PM

Lyre_Bird wrote: »

I know it's largely believed that the restrictions will last beyond Easter Sunday. But do people think there's a chance we might revert to the 'partial' lockdown that we previously had for about three days (from Tuesday 24th to Friday 27th March)?

I expect we will revert to something like this for several weeks after 19h April.

Jaysus, I'll need a haircut at that stage, otherwise I'll look like my avatar.

robinph · 02-04-2020 04:52PM

walshb wrote: »

Am I right to think we will be quite restricted at least until the end April?

Definitely if you mean April 2020.

Very likely still some restrictions if you mean April 2021.

donaghs · 02-04-2020 04:53PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Yes, I live alone, it's grand. We have the internet and whatsapp.
I know people are in rough situations but all this talk of mental health because people wont be able to go outside etc. You can go for walks anyway. Just suck it up, you're being asked to stay at home, not climb out of a trench and run at machine guns.

That's only part of it. Its no mystery that not having an income or a job to go back to brings other kinds of mental health problems - and health problems in general. Whether its nature or nurture (the idea of being the "provider" etc), men seem to suffer particularly badly from unemployment: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1449831/

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/men-are-more-likely-to-suffer-adverse-health-consequences-as-a-result-of-unemployment-than-women/

Gael23 · 02-04-2020 04:53PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Hopefully we don't have to but what makes you think we can't? Of course we can, Ireland has been through far worse.

It takes its toll on peoples mental health and also you have the growing risk of social unrest as we are beginning to see in Italy

alwald · 02-04-2020 04:53PM

Gael23 wrote:

Yes for sure, but they need to be slightly relaxed. Society cant take 5/6 weeks of what we have now

I think you should say that you can't take what we have now and not the society...the society will do what's necessary for the best of the country regardless of the time required.

Hamsterchops · 02-04-2020 04:54PM

lord quackinton wrote: »

I expect restrictions until end of April
Then the restrictions will be relaxed until fully gone by end of may ...

Wow, cool, only another three weeks ✓

The then back to normal by end of May, brill.

Can't wait.

Ace2007 · 02-04-2020 04:55PM

Gael23 wrote: »

Yes for sure, but they need to be slightly relaxed. Society cant take 5/6 weeks of what we have now

So Gael, let's say we do another 2/3 weeks of this - and we are more or less in the same boat, and people look across at the UK or the US and see thousands of people dying every day - do you honestly think the Irish be like, let's do away with the restrictions, or do you think they will be like, let's plough on through this - it could get a whole lot worse if we ease up now.

Padre_Pio · 02-04-2020 04:56PM

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Wow, cool, only another three weeks ✓

The then back to normal by end of May, brill.

Can't wait.

Good luck with that. My estimation would be September or even December before business as usual.

We haven't even reached the peak of what's in store for us, and who knows how many weeks it will take before a decline.

Thelonious Monk · 02-04-2020 04:56PM

Gael23 wrote: »

It takes its toll on peoples mental health and also you have the growing risk of social unrest as we are beginning to see in Italy

Well so be it, this isn't a nice situation, we can't just make it go away. We may, gasp!, for the first time in human history, have to suffer a little!

niallo27 · 02-04-2020 04:57PM

alwald wrote: »

I think you should say that you can't take what we have now and not the society...the society will do what's necessary for the best of the country regardless of the time required.

How can you be so sure, people are starting to turn already. I would say a larger percentage will not wait indefinitely.

Padre_Pio · 02-04-2020 04:58PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Well so be it, this isn't a nice situation, we can't just make it go away. We may, gasp!, for the first time in human history, have to suffer a little!

Suffer, bollocks. People asked to stay at home and claim the social for a few months.

100 years ago you'd be getting blown up in a field in France. :rolleyes:

Relaxation of restrictions

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