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Relaxation of restrictions

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Comments

  • #452
    Padre_Pio
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,634 ✭✭✭Padre_Pio


    donaghs wrote: »
    But we are not talking about all demographics. All the stats I've seen show 20s and 30s have about a 0.2% chance of dying.
    Probably lower as lack of widespread testing misses the asymtomatic cases.

    I agree with all your points in principle, but not in practice.

    Are you confident the fatality % you're quoting are correct? While mine are definitely worst case, your may be best case, with the real figure somewhere in between.
    Testing is definitely underreported, but deaths are also rumoured to be underreported to quell panic.

    On your second point, are you happy to send people under 50 back to work, knowing there's a high chance of getting coronavirus and a small chance of dying?

    Are you happy to tell these people they can't see their parents or others in at-risk groups for months or years?

    Are you happy that many under 50's may have undiagnosed issues that put them in at-risk groups and they may die?

    These are all tricky questions and one the government has to grapple with.
    There's a balance of economic and social cost vs the in your face reality of large number of daily deaths.
    The answer is in there somewhere, but you'd need to be a cold hearted b*stard to find it.


  • #453
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,352 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Hope over reality in my opinion. It's the natural reaction for those who may be scared or afraid. I'm very worried as well.

    But there is very little hope of this country or any other relaxing anything to any meaningful extent by the end of the month.

    They could maybe tinker with the edges but the end or the middle of July is more realistic for the start of relaxing measures - this is the UK's target now, it's Italy's target as well.

    And that's not for certain.

    The EU has been irrelevant throughout this as well. Totally irrelevant. Every country for themselves acting in their own interests. That's what's happening.

    The UK are completely fcuked thanks to their clowns in government. Boris "I shake hands with coronavirus patients" Johnson so there's no point comparing us to them as we have done a much better job, hence new case numbers here dropping and deaths spiralling out of control in the UK, chalk and cheese.

    It aint hope over reality. Soon all the thousands of patients awaiting major surgery who were dumped out of hospital are going to start having serious problems and will die if they don't get surgeries and other treatment. This is just one of a plethora of issues that this lockdown will start to throw up in the coming weeks. Some loosening is inevitable at the end of the month.


  • #454
    Sweet.Science
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,024 ✭✭✭Sweet.Science


    MadYaker wrote: »
    The UK are completely fcuked thanks to their clowns in government. Boris "I shake hands with coronavirus patients" Johnson so there's no point comparing us to them as we have done a much better job, hence new case numbers here dropping and deaths spiralling out of control in the UK, chalk and cheese.

    It aint hope over reality. Soon all the thousands of patients awaiting major surgery who were dumped out of hospital are going to start having serious problems and will die if they don't get surgeries and other treatment. This is just one of a plethora of issues that this lockdown will start to throw up in the coming weeks. Some loosening is inevitable at the end of the month.

    Drug treatments from clinical trials will be approved in the next week . That will be a game changer


  • #455
    niallo27
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,139 ✭✭✭✭niallo27


    Padre_Pio wrote: »
    Spain total cases 110k. Total deaths 10k
    Italy total cases 110k. Total deaths 13k
    UK total cases 33k. Total deaths 3k

    You're right in that many cases are unreported, but you'd need a million people in Spain to have coronavirus to have a 1% mortality.

    Are you willing to head back to work with a 1 or even 0.1% risk of contracting a fatal virus?

    Quote the figures for healthy 20-50 year olds that he said in his post.


  • #456
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,252 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    MadYaker wrote: »
    The UK are completely fcuked thanks to their clowns in government. Boris "I shake hands with coronavirus patients" Johnson so there's no point comparing us to them as we have done a much better job, hence new case numbers here dropping and deaths spiralling out of control in the UK, chalk and cheese.

    It aint hope over reality. Soon all the thousands of patients awaiting major surgery who were dumped out of hospital are going to start having serious problems and will die if they don't get surgeries and other treatment. This is just one of a plethora of issues that this lockdown will start to throw up in the coming weeks. Some loosening is inevitable at the end of the month.

    I disagree. I hope that happens. I can't see it at the moment.

    There is the other issue of that there is no point opening up when there is no one to trade with.

    In other words we'd be taking such a risk when other countries are locked down.

    So in that sense from an economic and trade perspective it's not worth it anyway.


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  • #457
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    bladespin wrote: »
    M50 during 'rush hour' last Tuesday:
    - 5.50pm (don't mind the time in frame, cam wasn't set)

    All you need is a tumbleweed

    Great to see. Would usually be gridlock that time of day.


  • #458
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    rob316 wrote: »
    This madness has to end Sunday week, the economic and social impact is devastating.

    You need to let it go.

    We are in this for the long term.

    Time to get onboard for the big win


  • #459
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    Padre_Pio wrote: »
    I agree with all your points in principle, but not in practice.

    Are you confident the fatality % you're quoting are correct? While mine are definitely worst case, your may be best case, with the real figure somewhere in between.
    Testing is definitely underreported, but deaths are also rumoured to be underreported to quell panic.

    On your second point, are you happy to send people under 50 back to work, knowing there's a high chance of getting coronavirus and a small chance of dying?

    Are you happy to tell these people they can't see their parents or others in at-risk groups for months or years?

    Are you happy that many under 50's may have undiagnosed issues that put them in at-risk groups and they may die?

    These are all tricky questions and one the government has to grapple with.
    There's a balance of economic and social cost vs the in your face reality of large number of daily deaths.
    The answer is in there somewhere, but you'd need to be a cold hearted b*stard to find it.

    People can decide for themselves if its safe to go back to work or not, or if its safe to visit elderly relatives or not.


    Are we happy to allow people drive in a car knowing they may get killed in a crash?

    The chances of an under 50 getting killed by CV are probably the same as a car crash.

    People keep missing that this is about the health service being able to cope with a surge, once herd immunity builds, testing improves and the vulnerable groups are given the option to cocoon, then the rest of us can get back to trying to fix this mess.


  • #460
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    bladespin wrote: »
    M50 during 'rush hour' last Tuesday:
    - 5.50pm (don't mind the time in frame, cam wasn't set)

    All you need is a tumbleweed

    Thank you, shows there isn't a lot of difference between here and Italy in terms of restrictions.


  • #461
    growleaves
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,025 ✭✭✭growleaves


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    You need to let it go.

    We are in this for the long term.

    Time to get onboard for the big win




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  • #462
    kieran.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,175 ✭✭✭kieran.


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    You need to let it go.

    We are in this for the long term.

    Time to get onboard for the big win

    Have you been modelling the numbers? Or how are you backing this statement up?

    If the peak is around the 10/14th and they phase out the restrictions similiar to the way introduced them would expect to be back to work on the 4th May but implementing social distancing / cough and hand-wash etiquette.

    I would expect us to be into total cases growth figures of less than 100% some time in the last week in April.


  • #463
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    kieran. wrote: »
    Have you been modelling the numbers? Or how are you backing this statement up?

    If the peak is around the 10/14th and they phase out the restrictions similiar to the way introduced them would expect to be back to work on the 4th May but implementing social distancing / cough and hand-wash etiquette.

    I would expect us to be into total cases growth figures of less than 100% some time in the last week in April.


    Initial easing by early May is possible, but it will depend on the numbers.


  • #464
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,398 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    You need to let it go.

    We are in this for the long term.

    Time to get onboard for the big win

    What is this big win you are expecting? The virus isn't just going to pack up and go home!

    You are right that the virus will be around for the long term, that is why we can't leave everyone sitting at home for an undefined period of time. Effective drug treatments (that ease symptoms facilitating recovery, rather than an outright cure), increased hospital capacity and the slow move towards herd immunity will all play a part in allowing for reduced restrictions. There is no big win, just an ongoing slow improvement due to various factors.

    The mental health effects, economic devastation, growing public disenchantment and reduced compliance over time all mean that keeping the vast majority of the population locked up at home is not an effective long term strategy. Yes it is the best strategy for now, short term, before people start countering with the usual "you just don't get it" nonsense and tackle an argument that is not being made.


  • #465
    ITman88
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 876 ✭✭✭ITman88


    BanditLuke wrote: »
    You need to let it go.

    We are in this for the long term.

    Time to get onboard for the big win

    No winner’s here pal


  • #466
    KiKi III
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,653 ✭✭✭KiKi III


    Pete_Cavan wrote: »
    What is this big win you are expecting? The virus isn't just going to pack up and go home!

    You are right that the virus will be around for the long term, that is why we can't leave everyone sitting at home for an undefined period of time. Effective drug treatments (that ease symptoms facilitating recovery, rather than an outright cure), increased hospital capacity and the slow move towards herd immunity will all play a part in allowing for reduced restrictions. There is no big win, just an ongoing slow improvement due to various factors.

    The mental health effects, economic devastation, growing public disenchantment and reduced compliance over time all mean that keeping the vast majority of the population locked up at home is not an effective long term strategy. Yes it is the best strategy for now, short term, before people start countering with the usual "you just don't get it" nonsense and tackle an argument that is not being made.

    The “win” although I wouldn’t use that word is that we are, so far, experiencing a much lower death rate than the UK per capita.

    We introduced stringent restrictions sooner and it is saving lives.


  • #467
    Thelonious Monk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,379 ✭✭✭✭Thelonious Monk


    jayp2020 wrote: »
    Exactly. Old people and young people trapped in their home alone. And even if they do have those nice things it's not a substitute for human company. Seriously is anyone else on this thread living alone? It's a completely different ballgame.

    Yes, I live alone, it's grand. We have the internet and whatsapp.
    I know people are in rough situations but all this talk of mental health because people wont be able to go outside etc. You can go for walks anyway. Just suck it up, you're being asked to stay at home, not climb out of a trench and run at machine guns.


  • #468
    KiKi III
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,653 ✭✭✭KiKi III


    easypazz wrote: »
    People can decide for themselves if its safe to go back to work or not, or if its safe to visit elderly relatives or not.


    Are we happy to allow people drive in a car knowing they may get killed in a crash?

    The chances of an under 50 getting killed by CV are probably the same as a car crash.
    .

    Sure. Why don’t we let people set their own speed limit too? And how much they think is appropriate to drink while driving? And whether to stop at red lights? Sure they can assess the risk for themselves.


  • #469
    TheCitizen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,747 ✭✭✭TheCitizen


    easypazz wrote: »
    People can decide for themselves if its safe to go back to work or not, or if its safe to visit elderly relatives or not.


    Are we happy to allow people drive in a car knowing they may get killed in a crash?

    The chances of an under 50 getting killed by CV are probably the same as a car crash.

    People keep missing that this is about the health service being able to cope with a surge, once herd immunity builds, testing improves and the vulnerable groups are given the option to cocoon, then the rest of us can get back to trying to fix this mess.

    Some awful nonsense spouted around here, the sooner this thing is oover the better :pac:


  • #470
    timmy_mallet
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    Sweet.Science wrote: »
    Drug treatments from clinical trials will be approved in the next week . That will be a game changer

    Phase III clinical trials in a matter of weeks. What could go wrong?


  • #471
    hmmm
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,203 ✭✭✭✭hmmm


    Padre_Pio wrote: »
    Are you willing to head back to work with a 1 or even 0.1% risk of contracting a fatal virus?
    Not the OP, but yes. However, not this one.

    The problem with this virus is it is so infectious, and spreads so quickly, that the number of cases would explode in a very short period. This overwhelms hospitals, and we'd very quickly see the death rate shoot up for all ages. I'd take my chances at .1, but not if that becomes 4% when there are no ICU beds available.


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  • #472
    Blueshoe
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    kieran. wrote: »
    Have you been modelling the numbers? Or how are you backing this statement up?

    If the peak is around the 10/14th and they phase out the restrictions similiar to the way introduced them would expect to be back to work on the 4th May but implementing social distancing / cough and hand-wash etiquette.

    I would expect us to be into total cases growth figures of less than 100% some time in the last week in April.

    Simon coveney hinted at different today.
    Your expectations aren't representative of reality


  • #473
    ITman88
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 876 ✭✭✭ITman88


    Padre_Pio wrote: »
    There's a balance of economic and social cost vs the in your face reality of large number of daily deaths.
    The answer is in there somewhere, but you'd need to be a cold hearted b*stard to find it.

    You don’t have to be a cold hearted b*stard you have to be a realist who can consider more than his own selfish gain.

    The studies done last week suggest a 6% slump in the economy will kill more than covid.

    Neil Ferguson the guy who initially said 500k deaths in UK backtracked to say worse case 20k deaths and 2/3 of those would die regardless of corona virus.

    The point of lockdown is to prevent health services coming under strain. Short term. And it’s being obeyed, even by the people suggesting the restrictions can’t continue indefinitely.

    Forget quoting death rates that you think sounds apocalyptic, death occurs worldwide and obscene numbers are part of every year. 54k unaccounted deaths in Italy in 2015, it didn’t get a mention on boards. 60k odd death’s in Italy in an average March.
    The numbers are tragic as every death is tragic but as of yet the numbers are not unusual in comparison to other years.


  • #474
    TheCitizen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,747 ✭✭✭TheCitizen


    rob316 wrote: »
    This madness has to end Sunday week, the economic and social impact is devastating.

    This madness must end soon :pac:


  • #475
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,398 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    TheCitizen wrote: »
    Some awful nonsense spouted around here, the sooner this thing is oover the better :pac:

    But it is not just going to be over any time soon. Even if we eradicate it here, it can be brought back in. We can't just barricade the country either, someone bringing in a vital delivery could be asymptomatic and spread it again. This will be an ongoing global battle and locking everyone in Ireland at home is not going to change that. We will need a functioning economy to pay for the battle. The name of the game is control and containment, eradication may never happen.


  • #476
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    KiKi III wrote: »
    Sure. Why don’t we let people set their own speed limit too? And how much they think is appropriate to drink while driving? And whether to stop at red lights? Sure they can assess the risk for themselves.

    Great inputs as usual.:rolleyes:


  • #477
    bladespin
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,439 ✭✭✭bladespin


    Padre_Pio wrote: »

    Are you willing to head back to work with a 1 or even 0.1% risk of contracting a fatal virus?

    I'd guess we do/did that everyday long before Covid.
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    MasteryDarts Ireland - Master your game!



  • #478
    kieran.
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,175 ✭✭✭kieran.


    Blueshoe wrote: »
    Simon coveney hinted at different today.
    Your expectations aren't representative of reality

    I would be in agreement with him, the current measures in place until the 4th May. Measures in some form will be with us for months. Cocooning will be expected until such time as a vaccine is approved.


  • #479
    shocksy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,610 ✭✭✭shocksy


    rob316 wrote: »
    This madness has to end Sunday week, the economic and social impact is devastating.

    If you believe this will end Sunday week you are delusional.

    There is no chance this ends for many many weeks. F*ck the economy for now. It's not important. It will recover when the time is right. Dead people can't recover.


  • #480
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Thelonious Monk wrote: »
    Yes, I live alone, it's grand. We have the internet and whatsapp.
    I know people are in rough situations but all this talk of mental health because people wont be able to go outside etc. You can go for walks anyway. Just suck it up, you're being asked to stay at home, not climb out of a trench and run at machine guns.

    Well at least that would offer a brief moment of adrenalin! Right now I'm in a state of torpor and we could be "locked down" for another month.


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  • #481
    Lyre_Bird
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9 ✭Lyre_Bird


    I know it's largely believed that the restrictions will last beyond Easter Sunday. But do people think there's a chance we might revert to the 'partial' lockdown that we previously had for about three days (from Tuesday 24th to Friday 27th March)?

    I'm in a not-great living situation at the moment and I'm hoping to be able to move to another place after Easter Sunday. I can stick things out until Easter, but another two weeks beyond that would be difficult.


This discussion has been closed.
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