CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

is_that_so · 01-04-2020 11:37AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Going by reports of most countries a full lockdown extending beyond 3-4 weeks seems to start to fail

Yeah, this was mentioned very early on in the briefings and is recognised as a limit. We might see some of that in the later part of April if we are still under the same restrictions.

MadYaker · 01-04-2020 11:38AM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

If everyone who arrived was quarantined at the airport for 14 days there would have been no significant spread here. Allowing new arrivals to spend their 'self isolation' with their families is just a recipe for further spread at home.

Trying to justify an 'open door' policy now is just plain reckless with the public's health, no matter how badly we have managed it in the past

how many people generally arrive in Dublin every day before this kicked off? Must be tens of thousands. Where would we quarantine them all for 2 weeks? It’s not practical. No country on earth did this.

BattleCorp · 01-04-2020 11:39AM

scamalert wrote: »

at least someone not hysteric or delusional totally agree end of April should see us back to slow re-open and some sort of normalcy.

for those who ask why end of April, its simple 2 weeks now is more the enough that has been done, and if theres no manageable decline after next 2 weeks its pointless to put any more restrictions in place as it will just irritate people and seriously impact where employment income is concerned for most.

I don't think we will see much normalcy at the end of April. The virus will still be in the community and any easing of restrictions will see a second wave of the virus which will mean a new lock-up.

We need a large percentage of the population to have recovered from this before things will come back to normal otherwise the heatlh service will be overrun and when that happens, more people die from this than necessary.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 01-04-2020 11:39AM

bilston wrote: »

I think 10 May might be a bit optimistic to be honest, but I suppose that is a broad guide to what might happen. Probably the best we can hope for.

I think as well that even when restrictions are lifted, people may be reluctant for a while to go to hotels, restaurants, pubs, busy places in general.

Regards schools, they could in theory maybe be opened some time in June, but at that point I'd expect caution to win the day and they will probably remain closed until September.

But it all depends on how long the surge lasts.

I think this is a realistic timeline but no one knows. 4 weeks after peak should be enough to significantly reduce the volumes in hospital.

tobefrank321 · 01-04-2020 11:40AM

Palmach wrote: »

Yeah it is. A small cabal will always want more power when they have free reign. Many countries have less restrictions than us and many have more. I think we have the balance right. The civil service is hard wired to think or more and more rules. Once liberties are taken away they are slow to be returned. A point lost on the army of cretins on social media looking for their freedoms to be taken away.

This is nonsense. I don't think you understand why "freedoms" are being taken away at the moment. The more we respect the current restrictions the sooner freedoms will be returned. If we don't respect them the longer those freedoms will be removed.

You'd think we are all enjoying this? No-one is. We're trying to limit the spread of this virus as much as possible and also save lives and keep ICU's free of capacity.

We will have no-one to blame but ourselves if we remain in a permanent lockdown until a vaccine is found which realistically could be a year from now.

Ficheall · 01-04-2020 11:40AM

All that fandango wrote: »

Just a quick question hoping its ok to post in this thread. My usual prescription ran out a few days ago. If it was any other time I would go to the docs to get another script written out for it for another 6 months. I need this medication again by Friday. Do I still have to go to the doctors just to get him to write me a new script or can I just ask the pharmacy for the medication over the counter so I dont have to go to the doctors and risk catching? (Its the contaceptive pill btw Ive been on it for years so the pharmacy staff know me). Thanks.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0327/1126911-ireland-restrictions-covid19/

March 28th:

"- Pharmacists will be permitted to dispense medicines outside of the current period of validity with an existing prescription in line with the pharmacists clinical judgement"

bodhrandude · 01-04-2020 11:41AM

Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

MrMusician18 · 01-04-2020 11:41AM

weldoninhio wrote: »

I've zero political affiliation.

I'd no idea what party she was from until i went back on there to get her name, all i'd seen was that she was a TD, her username is Jennifer Whitmore TD, no mention of any party. SD's got a vote from me in the last election. Their candidate was one of the only ones that knocked on my door and seemed like a decent and genuine lad.

Funny that you say that but are constantly putting the boot into the efforts being massage to contain the virus and have made no positive contribution to these threads.

You have only engaged in petty political point scoring. It's absolutely pathetic.

Stheno · 01-04-2020 11:42AM

An antibody test that is quick and readily available would be a game changer

Think one is being tested in Liverpool

Hector Savage · 01-04-2020 11:42AM

yes lockdowns long term seem to fail, thats why they need to start with the test test test approach, but at least in Spain they don't seem arsed about it, they are only testing people in hospital.

My brother in law is a fireman, they are finding bodies in houses that died of covid, but aren't counted as covid deaths.

total ****show

Germany seems to be doing things right.

Ha Long Bay · 01-04-2020 11:42AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

PUBLISHED: 08:24, Wed, Apr 1, 2020

Ace2007 · 01-04-2020 11:42AM

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

I think it's naive to think Schools will be back open in June - especially as kids can spread this virus without many showing signs.

To me back to normality is when you can get on a plane and go anywhere in the world and not be fearful, like do you honestly think you would even go to the UK by end of April or May?

you talk about pubs and 50% capacity - when we saw what temple bar was like the day before they shut them - it's not practical to think this will happen.

If the restrictions are lifted too early we could end up in a much worse situation 2 months down the line.

is_that_so · 01-04-2020 11:43AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

Ah the joys of April 1!

01-04-2020 11:43AM

BattleCorp wrote: »

I don't think we will see much normalcy at the end of April. The virus will still be in the community and any easing of restrictions will see a second wave of the virus which will mean a new lock-up.

We need a large percentage of the population to have recovered from this before things will come back to normal otherwise the heatlh service will be overrun and when that happens, more people die from this than necessary.

Balancing the economic pressures is being increasingly talked about. But easing of restrictions doesnt mean 'back to normal'. It will still mean pubs are shut, large gatherings are banned, social distancing is applied (ie. limits to numbers in cafes and stores), schools are closed, everyone still works from home. But that businesses / retail can re-open, travel limitations are relaxed. I would expect that this slightly lighter restriction will prevail for a number of months

stephenjmcd · 01-04-2020 11:43AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

Eh you do realise what day today is ðŸ˜‚

shinny · 01-04-2020 11:44AM

Stheno wrote: »

An antibody test that is quick and readily available would be a game changer

Think one is being tested in Liverpool

Totally agree. I asked Simon this on one of his Insta lives Q&A sessions, but he never answered. It would make a huge difference. I know the UK are working on home testing kits.

tigger123 · 01-04-2020 11:44AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

Scotland isn't banning the sale of alcohol.

sydthebeat · 01-04-2020 11:44AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

Obviously an April fool joke

bodhrandude · 01-04-2020 11:44AM

john4321 wrote: »

PUBLISHED: 08:24, Wed, Apr 1, 2020

Feck! My sister just bloody April fooled me aaaaaargh! :eek::eek:

tobefrank321 · 01-04-2020 11:45AM

MadYaker wrote: »

how many people generally arrive in Dublin every day before this kicked off? Must be tens of thousands. Where would we quarantine them all for 2 weeks? It’s not practical. No country on earth did this.

That's not true. Many countries implemented flight restrictions, quarantines and bans on foreign travellers. The US even implemented a ban on European travellers although by then it was far too late.

We don't have to ban flights from every country although at this stage covid19 is significant in almost every country. We could have taken a risk based approach based on where a flyer is coming from. We know London is now high risk with substantial under-reporting of cases. The same for New York. Flights should be limited from these high risk areas and those who do come in quarantined in a hotel. We're told its only a handful of passengers, so shouldn't be that big of a problem. Far better than allowing them home or into the community to infect their family or others.

BrianD3 · 01-04-2020 11:46AM

quokula wrote: »

When my Grandad died a couple of years ago, he was in his late 80s, caught some bug going around, ended up in hospital with pneumonia, and died a week later. A tragedy for us but business as usual for a hospital, nobody would ever consider an autopsy for such a case.

Statistics like annual flu deaths are calculated through models and estimation - at a very simplified level, you subtract death rate outside of flu season from death rate during flu season, to get deaths caused by flu. It's not at all routine to actually test for it when people have died because it's such a common thing.

There was a professor from Italy on sky news this morning, he was stressing that Covid-19 is considerably worse than the flu - but at the same time was talking about the overlaps between flu and Covid-19 in terms of symptoms, the time of year and deaths. As far as I could tell, he said that some deaths in Italy were being attributed to Covid-19 based on respiratory symptoms, pneumonia etc. rather than tests for the Covid-19 virus.

As I posted a while back, the number of excess deaths in Italy attributed to the flu in the 16/17 season was 25,000 and couple of years earlier the figure was 20,000. Excess deaths that were deemed to be caused by the flu after examining mortality stats afterwards. Elderly people were most vulnerable. And if the number dying with the flu were included, the numbers would be higher again.

rusty the athlete · 01-04-2020 11:46AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Mean with 95% confidence interval would be the most meaningful data.

Not enough observations. You need lots to start making assumptions from a normal distribution.

is_that_so · 01-04-2020 11:46AM

shinny wrote: »

Totally agree. I asked Simon this on one of his Insta lives Q&A sessions, but he never answered. It would make a huge difference. I know the UK are working on home testing kits.

Holohan has been asked and said it would be useful but now is not the time for us.

MadYaker · 01-04-2020 11:46AM

BattleCorp wrote: »

I don't think we will see much normalcy at the end of April. The virus will still be in the community and any easing of restrictions will see a second wave of the virus which will mean a new lock-up.

We need a large percentage of the population to have recovered from this before things will come back to normal otherwise the heatlh service will be overrun and when that happens, more people die from this than necessary.

My guess is that on the 12th they’ll extend the current measures until the end of April and then we might see some sort of gradual relaxation. But I think we could be in some sort of lockdown after that if cases start to rise again. I wonder have the gov started to work on any sort of plan that extends beyond April?

Does anyone know what Tony Holohan (hse chief) means when he says they want to turn it from a community infection to a household one? I heard that in the presser last night.

Ger Roe · 01-04-2020 11:46AM

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

Contact tracing is now thankfully less important as the average number of contacts is 3 (see CMO briefings).

These 3 people are mostly the people that patients live with (who would be expected to get infected anyway, so identifying them is not very important from the public health perspective).

This constant emphasis on testing delays is really obscuring the important message on maximum social distancing.

Yes, but tens of thousands of three people groups is still a lot of people that we don't know about. I know it's less of a concern, but not ideal by any means and this whole situation started off with just one person somewhere in China.

shinny · 01-04-2020 11:46AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Feck! My sister just bloody April fooled me aaaaaargh! :eek::eek:

My brother told my sister in law this morning that the sale of alcholol is being banned in off licenses (including supermarkets) - She fell for it hook, line and sinker. Her face just dropped.

Cruel but funny

ITman88 · 01-04-2020 11:47AM

paw patrol wrote: »

I think he makes a fair point , but we'll be back to normal before those dates

We can't afford the current situation and people will get restless. The common good mantra will only work so long before public order will breakdown.
Lives need to be lived and people will only be content to live on 350e for so long

Well will relax restrictions on the 12th of April, from then maintain social distance etc, no way the 2km restriction from your home will be adhered to much longer.
Social distance will stay for a while, pubs and restaurants will need to try and reopen late April and send kids to school, life must go on

the.red.baron · 01-04-2020 11:48AM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

It's the shape of the graph that matters and whether it is linear or exponential.

Unfortunately it looks exponential at present and closer in shape to the worst case scenario behind Trump in this picture. The projected death rates are truly horrifying, even with best case scenario mitigation efforts.

the curve is tested cases, they were doing no testing so the earlier numbers a skewed in both graphs, way worse in the american case

Away With The Fairies · 01-04-2020 11:48AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

I don't know if this is an April fools but I said it last week that people are still going to have house parties and we need to make these parties as dry as possible.

01-04-2020 11:48AM

rusty the athlete wrote: »

Not enough observations. You need lots to start making assumptions from a normal distribution.

with each observation the data becomes more relevant - could also test other distributions

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP