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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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Comments

  • #4292
    MrMusician18
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 8,447 ✭✭✭MrMusician18


    weldoninhio wrote: »
    I've zero political affiliation.

    I'd no idea what party she was from until i went back on there to get her name, all i'd seen was that she was a TD, her username is Jennifer Whitmore TD, no mention of any party. SD's got a vote from me in the last election. Their candidate was one of the only ones that knocked on my door and seemed like a decent and genuine lad.
    Funny that you say that but are constantly putting the boot into the efforts being massage to contain the virus and have made no positive contribution to these threads.

    You have only engaged in petty political point scoring. It's absolutely pathetic.


  • #4293
    Stheno
    Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    An antibody test that is quick and readily available would be a game changer

    Think one is being tested in Liverpool


  • #4294
    Hector Savage
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,809 ✭✭✭Hector Savage


    yes lockdowns long term seem to fail, thats why they need to start with the test test test approach, but at least in Spain they don't seem arsed about it, they are only testing people in hospital.

    My brother in law is a fireman, they are finding bodies in houses that died of covid, but aren't counted as covid deaths.



    total ****show


    Germany seems to be doing things right.


  • #4295
    Ha Long Bay
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 18,961 ✭✭✭✭Ha Long Bay


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter


    PUBLISHED: 08:24, Wed, Apr 1, 2020


  • #4296
    Ace2007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,195 ✭✭✭✭Ace2007


    Pheonix10 wrote: »
    Thinking of an expected timeline:

    Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
    Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
    Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
    Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
    Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
    Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in


    I think it's naive to think Schools will be back open in June - especially as kids can spread this virus without many showing signs.

    To me back to normality is when you can get on a plane and go anywhere in the world and not be fearful, like do you honestly think you would even go to the UK by end of April or May?

    you talk about pubs and 50% capacity - when we saw what temple bar was like the day before they shut them - it's not practical to think this will happen.

    If the restrictions are lifted too early we could end up in a much worse situation 2 months down the line.


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  • #4297
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter
    Ah the joys of April 1!


  • #4298
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    BattleCorp wrote: »
    I don't think we will see much normalcy at the end of April. The virus will still be in the community and any easing of restrictions will see a second wave of the virus which will mean a new lock-up.

    We need a large percentage of the population to have recovered from this before things will come back to normal otherwise the heatlh service will be overrun and when that happens, more people die from this than necessary.

    Balancing the economic pressures is being increasingly talked about. But easing of restrictions doesnt mean 'back to normal'. It will still mean pubs are shut, large gatherings are banned, social distancing is applied (ie. limits to numbers in cafes and stores), schools are closed, everyone still works from home. But that businesses / retail can re-open, travel limitations are relaxed. I would expect that this slightly lighter restriction will prevail for a number of months


  • #4299
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,579 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

    Eh you do realise what day today is 😂


  • #4300
    shinny
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭shinny


    Stheno wrote: »
    An antibody test that is quick and readily available would be a game changer

    Think one is being tested in Liverpool

    Totally agree. I asked Simon this on one of his Insta lives Q&A sessions, but he never answered. It would make a huge difference. I know the UK are working on home testing kits.


  • #4301
    tigger123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,756 ✭✭✭tigger123


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

    Scotland isn't banning the sale of alcohol.


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  • #4302
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers, Paid Member Posts: 44,833 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

    Obviously an April fool joke


  • #4303
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,193 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    john4321 wrote: »
    PUBLISHED: 08:24, Wed, Apr 1, 2020

    Feck! My sister just bloody April fooled me aaaaaargh! :eek::eek:

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #4304
    tobefrank321
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,621 ✭✭✭tobefrank321


    MadYaker wrote: »
    how many people generally arrive in Dublin every day before this kicked off? Must be tens of thousands. Where would we quarantine them all for 2 weeks? It’s not practical. No country on earth did this.

    That's not true. Many countries implemented flight restrictions, quarantines and bans on foreign travellers. The US even implemented a ban on European travellers although by then it was far too late.

    We don't have to ban flights from every country although at this stage covid19 is significant in almost every country. We could have taken a risk based approach based on where a flyer is coming from. We know London is now high risk with substantial under-reporting of cases. The same for New York. Flights should be limited from these high risk areas and those who do come in quarantined in a hotel. We're told its only a handful of passengers, so shouldn't be that big of a problem. Far better than allowing them home or into the community to infect their family or others.


  • #4305
    BrianD3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,009 ✭✭✭BrianD3


    quokula wrote: »
    When my Grandad died a couple of years ago, he was in his late 80s, caught some bug going around, ended up in hospital with pneumonia, and died a week later. A tragedy for us but business as usual for a hospital, nobody would ever consider an autopsy for such a case.

    Statistics like annual flu deaths are calculated through models and estimation - at a very simplified level, you subtract death rate outside of flu season from death rate during flu season, to get deaths caused by flu. It's not at all routine to actually test for it when people have died because it's such a common thing.
    There was a professor from Italy on sky news this morning, he was stressing that Covid-19 is considerably worse than the flu - but at the same time was talking about the overlaps between flu and Covid-19 in terms of symptoms, the time of year and deaths. As far as I could tell, he said that some deaths in Italy were being attributed to Covid-19 based on respiratory symptoms, pneumonia etc. rather than tests for the Covid-19 virus.

    As I posted a while back, the number of excess deaths in Italy attributed to the flu in the 16/17 season was 25,000 and couple of years earlier the figure was 20,000. Excess deaths that were deemed to be caused by the flu after examining mortality stats afterwards. Elderly people were most vulnerable. And if the number dying with the flu were included, the numbers would be higher again.


  • #4306
    rusty the athlete
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 130 ✭✭rusty the athlete


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Mean with 95% confidence interval would be the most meaningful data.


    Not enough observations. You need lots to start making assumptions from a normal distribution.


  • #4307
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    shinny wrote: »
    Totally agree. I asked Simon this on one of his Insta lives Q&A sessions, but he never answered. It would make a huge difference. I know the UK are working on home testing kits.
    Holohan has been asked and said it would be useful but now is not the time for us.


  • #4308
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    BattleCorp wrote: »
    I don't think we will see much normalcy at the end of April. The virus will still be in the community and any easing of restrictions will see a second wave of the virus which will mean a new lock-up.

    We need a large percentage of the population to have recovered from this before things will come back to normal otherwise the heatlh service will be overrun and when that happens, more people die from this than necessary.

    My guess is that on the 12th they’ll extend the current measures until the end of April and then we might see some sort of gradual relaxation. But I think we could be in some sort of lockdown after that if cases start to rise again. I wonder have the gov started to work on any sort of plan that extends beyond April?

    Does anyone know what Tony Holohan (hse chief) means when he says they want to turn it from a community infection to a household one? I heard that in the presser last night.


  • #4309
    Ger Roe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,225 ✭✭✭Ger Roe


    DevilsHaircut wrote: »
    Contact tracing is now thankfully less important as the average number of contacts is 3 (see CMO briefings).

    These 3 people are mostly the people that patients live with (who would be expected to get infected anyway, so identifying them is not very important from the public health perspective).

    This constant emphasis on testing delays is really obscuring the important message on maximum social distancing.

    Yes, but tens of thousands of three people groups is still a lot of people that we don't know about. I know it's less of a concern, but not ideal by any means and this whole situation started off with just one person somewhere in China.


  • #4310
    shinny
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭shinny


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Feck! My sister just bloody April fooled me aaaaaargh! :eek::eek:

    My brother told my sister in law this morning that the sale of alcholol is being banned in off licenses (including supermarkets) - She fell for it hook, line and sinker. Her face just dropped.

    Cruel but funny :p


  • #4311
    ITman88
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 876 ✭✭✭ITman88


    paw patrol wrote: »
    I think he makes a fair point , but we'll be back to normal before those dates

    We can't afford the current situation and people will get restless. The common good mantra will only work so long before public order will breakdown.
    Lives need to be lived and people will only be content to live on 350e for so long

    Well will relax restrictions on the 12th of April, from then maintain social distance etc, no way the 2km restriction from your home will be adhered to much longer.
    Social distance will stay for a while, pubs and restaurants will need to try and reopen late April and send kids to school, life must go on


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  • #4312
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    Rob A. Bank wrote: »
    It's the shape of the graph that matters and whether it is linear or exponential.

    Unfortunately it looks exponential at present and closer in shape to the worst case scenario behind Trump in this picture. The projected death rates are truly horrifying, even with best case scenario mitigation efforts.




    the curve is tested cases, they were doing no testing so the earlier numbers a skewed in both graphs, way worse in the american case


  • #4313
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    bodhrandude wrote: »
    Scotland to ban the sale of alcohol during pandemic period, I can see some Scots rioting because of this, stuck in the house and dry. https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1262135/alcohol-ban-UK-has-alcohol-been-banned-UK-ban-alcohol-sales-hoax-government-letter

    I don't know if this is an April fools but I said it last week that people are still going to have house parties and we need to make these parties as dry as possible.


  • #4314
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    rusty the athlete wrote: »
    Not enough observations. You need lots to start making assumptions from a normal distribution.

    with each observation the data becomes more relevant - could also test other distributions


  • #4315
    shinny
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,404 ✭✭✭shinny


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Holohan has been asked and said it would be useful but now is not the time for us.

    I suppose that's fair enough. Perhaps when we peak it would be a time to begin looking at this.


  • #4316
    weldoninhio
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,311 ✭✭✭✭weldoninhio


    MrMusician18 wrote: »
    Funny that you say that but are constantly putting the boot into the efforts being massage to contain the virus and have made no positive contribution to these threads.

    You have only engaged in petty political point scoring. It's absolutely pathetic.

    So if i'm putting the boot into FF, FG, SF, and now the SD. What political party am I scoring points for?? :rolleyes:


  • #4317
    Roger_007
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,886 ✭✭✭✭Roger_007


    Palmach wrote: »
    Yeah it is. A small cabal will always want more power when they have free reign. Many countries have less restrictions than us and many have more. I think we have the balance right. The civil service is hard wired to think or more and more rules. Once liberties are taken away they are slow to be returned. A point lost on the army of cretins on social media looking for their freedoms to be taken away.

    Nobody knows yet what the right balance is. If you impose a particularly strict regime, can it be sustained for long enough?
    Everyone is watching Sweden. They have not imposed as strict a regime as most other countries in Europe and social activities go on almost as normal there, but, because the regime is not so strict, it probably can sustained for much longer and may be more effective in the long run.


  • #4318
    Away With The Fairies
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,077 ✭✭✭Away With The Fairies


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    Balancing the economic pressures is being increasingly talked about. But easing of restrictions doesnt mean 'back to normal'. It will still mean pubs are shut, large gatherings are banned, social distancing is applied (ie. limits to numbers in cafes and stores), schools are closed, everyone still works from home. But that businesses / retail can re-open, travel limitations are relaxed. I would expect that this slightly lighter restriction will prevail for a number of months

    We should also have to wear masks


  • #4319
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    We should also have to wear masks
    They've said no to this based on evidence but you can wear one if you choose.


  • #4320
    the.red.baron
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,636 ✭✭✭the.red.baron


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    We should also have to wear masks




    which you can't get and haven't been able to get for the last 2 months


    so no


    stay at home is more effective especially if ill


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  • #4321
    Akabusi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,154 ✭✭✭Akabusi


    Away With The Fairies wrote: »
    Just the ignorance. This is why it's spreading.

    What if one of her kids picked it up and not showed signs, and they're going about the place as if everything is fine. They should introduce fines for all the ignorance.

    Totally correct, I had it and just when we thought we were clear of it, my son developed symptoms. There is the possibility in the next two weeks that the one of the other three kids and wife develop symptoms (or simply get it and don't show symptoms). For my wife, the self isolation continues, I at least can now go to the shop and get the groceries.


This discussion has been closed.
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