CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP

pawdee · 01-04-2020 10:52AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

They're saying here in Spain it won't peak till late May/early June .....

F*ck this sh!t, really considering suicide as a viable option at this stage ...

I wouldn't go down that road. Surely you want to be around just to see how it all pans out? It's either going to be apocalyptically bad (great fun) or, not too bad at all (great fun). Relax.

Kivaro · 01-04-2020 10:52AM

bilston wrote: »

China didn't act for weeks, sure they arrested people for speaking out saying that there was a problem in the first place.

It's not particularly conspiratorial. I just think their figures are nonsense.

That, and now experts are telling us that China's numbers are 'out' by a factor of 40 times the actual numbers.

ChikiChiki · 01-04-2020 10:53AM

ITman88 wrote: »

A positive test won’t save his life, a ventilator will.
Everyone has been told if you have symptoms isolate, a positive test will make very little difference

But the way the message is conveyed, you need the positive test to get to the ventilator.

caveat emptor · 01-04-2020 10:53AM

ITman88 wrote: »

It makes sense regarding males 21-30 being most infected, they would be the most mobile and active and probably having contact with a greater number of people. Most of them also won’t have a clue they have it

Yeah shows how important physical distancing is within the community. Again credit where it is due offers much more insight to what is going on. Fair play to "EPI Team" in hse.

One thing from that report. Of the deaths thus far 90% of deaths have been in 65+.

However ICU admissions much less skewed to older ages so any age can end up there. Hopefully they all recover.

Well worth a read for everyone on here.

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/casesinireland/COVID-19%20Epidemiology%20report%20for%20NPHET%2031.03.2020v1-%20website%20version.pdf

weldoninhio · 01-04-2020 10:53AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

I hope anyone mild enough has the cop on to self isolate and not wait for a doctor or test to tell them to.

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

ITman88 · 01-04-2020 10:55AM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

But the way the message is conveyed, you need the positive test to get to the ventilator.

No you need breathing difficulties to get a ventilator

is_that_so · 01-04-2020 10:55AM

Kivaro wrote: »

That, and now experts are telling us that China's numbers are 'out' by a factor of 40 times the actual numbers.

Experts are like the virus, the number that will ultimately emerge from this is unknown but growing rapidly!

01-04-2020 10:55AM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

Still trying to justify the ridiculous decision not to screen arrivals into the country ? :rolleyes:

Practically everyone in Ireland is doing their best to mitigate the spread of this rotten virus. It is crazy that the government is allowing potential spreaders into the country without screening.

There should be a quarantine hotel in Dublin airport where the guests stay for 14 days at their own expense, before release into the country. Other countries do the same and I am sure the hotels would value the trade.

Who is going to travel to Ireland, except for a very few remaining Irish citizens / residents? Who will then do their bit to help mitigate spread in just the same way as those already here. Or do you think that all new arrivals are going to spend 14 days running around the place spitting at people?

IspeakcozIcan · 01-04-2020 10:56AM

weldoninhio wrote: »

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

Well yes that's in line with the guidance.

In the UK, they advise a 7 day self-isolation period even if you test positive. Big difference there. I haven't seen this difference explained anywhere.

JaimeLannister · 01-04-2020 10:56AM

Very good info in that HSE report. Anyone know if they publish it daily?

Bob24 · 01-04-2020 10:56AM

FVP3 wrote: »

Another enemy of the west fiddling with the numbers. It's crazy how the enemies of the US in particular are so bad with their stats. This has particularly ramped up since the US took the leadership in world cases.

Geopolitics are not a consideration here.

Iran is the country where the deputy health minister said on TV that everything was under control while looking clearly sick and being infected with the virus. Where several key governments figures died from it. Where there were riots because of it. Etc.

Suspicions about their figures were raised *way* before the US came into the spotlight and there is absolutely not relationship between the 2 things.

All countries have some level of voluntary or involuntary issues with their figures, but for me Iran is in the top league in terms of fiddling with them.

is_that_so · 01-04-2020 10:56AM

weldoninhio wrote: »

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

Those are the guidelines and she's not doing anything wrong.

weldoninhio · 01-04-2020 10:57AM

IspeakcozIcan wrote: »

Well yes that's in line with the guidance.

In the UK, they advise a 7 day self-isolation period even if you test positive. Big difference there. I haven't seen this difference explained anywhere.

Then how come the HSE won't let my doctor back to work, 3 weeks after she was tested, because she hasn't got her result yet??

Quantum Erasure · 01-04-2020 10:57AM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I have to agree with this. My best friend has been having breathing difficulties and was only tested yesterday having been waiting a full week.

Then he was told yesterday it could be 2 weeks to get the results. As he said himself, he could be dead within that time-frame if things deteriorate as he waits it out.
.

The test has nothing to do with treatment, if things deteriorate he should call his GP,

Kivaro · 01-04-2020 10:58AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Experts are like the virus, the number that will ultimately emerge from this is unknown but growing rapidly!

China's skewing of the numbers at an early stage has caused untold damage to the rest of the world.

RebelButtMunch · 01-04-2020 10:58AM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

But the way the message is conveyed, you need the positive test to get to the ventilator.

I doubt if you need a ventilator, they'll wait until a positive test is confirmed.

tobefrank321 · 01-04-2020 10:58AM

Wombatman wrote: »

Riddle me this one.

Over the last 5 days we have had 302,294,200,295 and 325 confirmed cases. Averages to about 300 cases a day.

If the positivity rate is 15% then 300 must be 15% of the number of completed tests over the same period, right. This would require a testing capacity of 2000 completions per day.

They have stated they can only complete 1500 a day due to equipment shortfall, so how are these numbers possible?

I'm not getting this from anywhere else. It's just simple math, my level.

Would you agree that if we had the capacity to test more we would be seeing more confirmed cases? I would suggest the answer has to be yes.

We won't get big confirmed case numbers because we can't. It has been suggested that we are flattening the curve. I would suggest the reason for this is we have reached a ceiling of confirmed cases, around 300, due to the lab test bottleneck.

Its easy to swab someone. Hell we could swab 100,000 people a day no problem.

Its analysing the results where the bottle neck is.

So when the government say we plan to do 5000 tests a day, its great PR which is swallowed by the FG base who at this stage are starting to resemble the Trump base in America.

They need to be more specific and say we plan to process 5000 swabs a day in the labs. Or just be transparent in general.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 01-04-2020 10:59AM

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

01-04-2020 11:01AM

josip wrote: »

My original 3 word post was to help explain the pun 5 posts back up, not related to the analysis of the HSE numbers.
I understand your point, but in your reply you're taking a mathematical term (mean) and choosing to compare it to a Ballywherever usage of the term average.

In mathematics, the average is the arithmetic mean.

Sorry, I missed your original post.

The mean, median and mode are measures of "the average" used in statistics:

Mean, median, and mode are three kinds of "averages". There are many "averages" in statistics, but these are, I think, the three most common, and are certainly the three you are most likely to encounter in your pre-statistics courses, if the topic comes up at all.

https://www.purplemath.com/modules/meanmode.htm

DevilsHaircut · 01-04-2020 11:02AM

ChikiChiki wrote: »

I have to agree with this. My best friend has been having breathing difficulties and was only tested yesterday having been waiting a full week.

Then he was told yesterday it could be 2 weeks to get the results. As he said himself, he could be dead within that time-frame if things deteriorate as he waits it out.

People in positions of influence seem to be jumping the queue.

The test is not the treatment (as Tony Holohan, Colm Henry etc. are blue in the face explaining).

The severity of your friend's symptoms would dictate whether he needs hospitalisation (regardless of his Covid 19 test result).

Loafing Oaf · 01-04-2020 11:02AM

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

Dream on...

tobefrank321 · 01-04-2020 11:02AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Who is going to travel to Ireland, except for a very few remaining Irish citizens / residents? Who will then do their bit to help mitigate spread in just the same way as those already here. Or do you think that all new arrivals are going to spend 14 days running around the place spitting at people?

Lockdown should mean lockdown. It makes no sense to restrict travel within a country but allow people come in from hotspots like London and Paris unrestricted. That's not a lockdown. You are talking of a couple hundred people travelling in who are potentially going to cause a problem with new cases for the remaining 4.7 million. Really makes no sense.

0gac3yjefb5sv7 · 01-04-2020 11:05AM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Dream on...

LOL this is quite conservative too.

What do you think doomsday is it?

Loafing Oaf · 01-04-2020 11:05AM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Lockdown should mean lockdown. It makes no sense to restrict travel within a country but allow people come in from hotspots like London and Paris unrestricted. That's not a lockdown. You are talking of a couple hundred people travelling in who are potentially going to cause a problem with new cases for the remaining 4.7 million. Really makes no sense.

Big problem is our back door in the north. Would it be possible to restrict travel between there and 'mainland Britain'?

murpho999 · 01-04-2020 11:05AM

owlbethere wrote: »

I find this sad an ironic. If they stopped flights from the hotspot/s at the end of February and implemented other measures, we would be in a better position. Half the workforce probably wouldn't be shut down right now. Now, aviation has come to a halt along with a sizable portion of the countries workforce.

I really don't think it would have.

Let's take Italy as an example.

If Irish skiers (which I think is where a lot of infections here have come from) in Italy were denied flights home they would have traveled him via another route, such as Austria, France or Switzerland. They would not have simply stayed in Italy.

These people probably went to Italy, caught the virus, and came home before even the first death in Italy.

Trumps stopped European flights with little impact.

The virus was already in the community here before any concerns about Italy or Spain were apparant.

PixelTrawler · 01-04-2020 11:07AM

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

The creche bailout runs for 3 months from today. I’d be amazed if the creche’s reopen before July 1st. Would be great as we’ve two home full time now. But just can’t see it.

Away With The Fairies · 01-04-2020 11:07AM

weldoninhio wrote: »

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

Just the ignorance. This is why it's spreading.

What if one of her kids picked it up and not showed signs, and they're going about the place as if everything is fine. They should introduce fines for all the ignorance.

Away With The Fairies · 01-04-2020 11:07AM

weldoninhio wrote: »

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

Just the ignorance. This is why it's spreading.

What if one of her kids picked it up and not showed signs, and they're going about the place as if everything is fine. They should introduce fines for all the ignorance.

gabeeg · 01-04-2020 11:07AM

Pheonix10 wrote: »

Thinking of an expected timeline:

Cases to peak in the next 2 weeks by 15 April.
Restrictions lifted on travel on May 1st back to what we had before last Friday.
Cases start to reduce until a manageable level around 20th of May.
Schools go back early June & Shops reopen.
Everyone who can work from home continues to do so.
Pubs reopen mid/late June with a rule that they can only let 50% of capacity in

Sorry, but our testing has been so limited that it's very difficult to get a good picture of where we are with this crisis and when we'll see a peak and subsequent reduction.

When they eventually crank it up to an acceptable level we'll start to get an idea of how we're doing, and then we can start to speculate about getting back to normal.

Right now there's not a single person in the country with a clear picture of how this will pan out.

Yurt2 · 01-04-2020 11:08AM

weldoninhio wrote: »

There was a TD on Twitter this morning (Jennifer Whitmore SD Wicklow) boasting about how she was tested, hadn't gotten any result yet, but 14 days were up do she was out and about with her kids.

This post wouldn't have anything to do with the political party she is a member of would it?

No, ridiculous, absolutely not. You're a level headed guy that wouldn't seek to do such a thing.

CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

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CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) Read OP