CoVid19 Part XII - 4,604 in ROI (137 deaths) 998 in NI (56 deaths)(04/04) **Read OP**

Wolf359f wrote: »

Officials has said it can be transmitted via breath, but you would have to be literally face to face. It's a choir, I assume they were singing off the top of their lungs, which I imagine would have aerosoled it. They were also in contact for over 2 hours

What is it you don't get? Possibly just one asymptomatic person infected 45 others through aerosol transmission over a distance of several metres.

Do you think that breathing vs singing is a magic binary switch: no virus/virus?

If you believe that, you should go work for the WHO.

We should now assume that an asymptomatic infected person can transmit the virus through aerosols just by exhaling. Of course singing increased the rate and extent of virus output and spread, that is why so many people were infected and the spread was so dramatic we have been alerted to it, but it also means that an infected person just breathing normally in a room with 59 others may well infect one or more people near them, particularly if they are talking to them.

This really helps to explain the infectiousness and spread, even weeks after people worldwide were advised to wash their hands frequently and that it was the best preventative measure, when actually a mask probably would have been better.

I think folks got taken in and hooked on this 30 percent figure from Leo...worst case scenario...

15 precent compared to 30 percent is encouraging, but on its own, 15 percent is far from encouraging...and 15 percent when the vast majority of people are being prudent, well? I think discouraging is the more apt word.

GM228 wrote: »

How is it incorrect? It's correct based on the data published for each date.

COVID cases

20th March 17 cases in ICU
24th March 47 cases in ICU
25th March 59 cases in ICU
26th March 67 cases in ICU
27th March 77 cases in ICU
28th March 84 cases in ICU
29th March 88 cases in ICU
30th March 84 cases in ICU

The ICU figures go up because they are critical cases requiring ICU beds.

The only way you will see ICU figures go down is if people recover or die.

Ace2007 wrote: »

But then why not go and bet against the market and make yourself a fortune from it?

It's like those saying they knew the crash was coming in 2008/2009 - it's easy to say a recession is coming, but to know when it's coming and how bad it's going to get is different.

All you posters are the same and I put it to someone two days ago - to name the 5 things you would do going forward and they refused to do it - because it they name them, and they are wrong - people will use it against them.

So I say to you Frank - 5 distinct things that should happen now going forward to help improve the situation.

Five suggestions

1. Set up a blood bank from those you have recovered to use as last ditch treatments and research here.
2. Spray disinfectant on public transport and entrances to supermarkets airports and otherheavy footfall areas.
3. Stockpile antivirals and other promising treatment medicines
4. Enhanced legal protection for health workers during the crisis especially when hard decision may be needed as to who gets treatment first.
5. Use of CCTV and drones to police high density areas

cnocbui wrote: »

What is it you don't get? Possibly just one asymptomatic person infected 45 others through aerosol transmission over a distance of several metres.

Do you think that breathing vs singing is a magic binary switch: no virus/virus?

If you believe that, you should go work for the WHO.

We should now assume that an asymptomatic infected person can transmit the virus through aerosols just by exhaling. Of course singing increased the rate and extent of virus output and spread, that is why so many people were infected and the spread was so dramatic we have been alerted to it, but it also means that an infected person just breathing normally in a room with 59 others may well infect one or more people near them, particularly if they are talking to them.

This really helps to explain the infectiousness and spread, even weeks after people worldwide were advised to wash their hands frequently and that it was the best preventative measure, when actually a mask probably would have been better.

Of course singing will expel more aerosol than talking would, you're inhaling/exhaling more intensely and more often.

cnocbui wrote: »

What is it you don't get? Possibly just one asymptomatic person infected 45 others through aerosol transmission over a distance of several metres.

Do you think that breathing vs singing is a magic binary switch: no virus/virus?

If you believe that, you should go work for the WHO.

We should now assume that an asymptomatic infected person can transmit the virus through aerosols just by exhaling. Of course singing increased the rate and extent of virus output and spread, that is why so many people were infected and the spread was so dramatic we have been alerted to it, but it also means that an infected person just breathing normally in a room with 59 others may well infect one or more people near them, particularly if they are talking to them.

This really helps to explain the infectiousness and spread, even weeks after people worldwide were advised to wash their hands frequently and that it was the best preventative measure, when actually a mask probably would have been better.

Ah here there's a massive difference between breathing out and singing. If it was spread just by breath and lingered in the air (outside a controlled test) airplanes would have been breeding grounds, which there's no evidence that it was.

Duke of Url wrote: »

Lol didn’t we pay for it already? You would think the WHO could certify it in Beijing.

Not sure the WHO are the folk we should be trusting the ground in China.

Better to check ourselves imo.

STB. wrote: »

Yes I watched it. What did you not understand ?

84. Yes that may have increased Holohan says.

Do you think they just go in for 24 hours and are released back somewhere else. There are currently 84 in ICU BEDS. There were 88 at the weekend.

The totals for ICU are the numbers in ICU at anyone time as a result of Covid19.

Watch the video again. Question that was put by the journalist was the total figure that have gone into ICU, no mention of those that are currently in ICU. Holohan responds with the total as notified on Saturday night.

We have this thing in the public service where people either answer exactly what they are asked and no more or else fudge their answer. On this occasion Holohan appears to have done the former. And we still don't know how many are currently in ICU.

The part about there being further admissions since Saturday is just filler and stating the obvious.

These are the serious cases, Brian.

Thanks for that, I thought ICU cases weren't serious :rolleyes:

saneman wrote: »

Yes, that's the reason for 2-metre social distancing.

https://youtu.be/E3URhJx0NSw?t=75

Why is this not emphasised more? i've googled it a few times and all I find is 'coughing or sneezing spreads it, not airborne'. I mean I've really searched specifically for 'can you spread it just by breathing?'. This information isn't out there. Unless you watch Joe Rogan, it seems...

Deleted User wrote: »

I was under impression figures quoted are numbers admitted to ICU??

In that these numbers,could in theory include deceased

It's cumulative numbers. Numbers that are in ICU at that time, including people still critical. You could be in ICU for weeks.

Yes. There are only two outcomes from ICU.

BrianD3 wrote: »

Watch the video again. Question that was put by the journalist was the total figure that have gone into ICU, no mention of those that are currently in ICU. Holohan responds with the total as notified on Saturday night.

We have this thing in the public service where people either answer exactly what they are asked and no more or else fudge their answer. On this occasion Holohan appears to have done the former. And we still don't know how many are currently in ICU.

The part about there being further admissions since Saturday is just filler and stating the obvious.

Thanks for that, I thought ICU cases weren't serious :rolleyes:

Brian they are the same thing, however badly worded you think it is, "admitted" might have thrown you as you might assume they are new.

The figure Holohan gave is the numbers in ICU at the time the question was asked, he even says it could have went up.

I posted the steady increase in ICU numbers a few posts before yours. Do you not understand their relevance. Do you think people are being admitted to ICU to get their teeth cleaned, off you go thanks a lot.

Its for critical patients. Many are in there in a bad way with two possible outcomes.

Its the only true measurement right now. We have 500 ICU beds in the whole country spread everywhere. If the worst cases exceed the number of ICU beds, difficult decisions will have to be made about who gets ventilators and who does not.

Wolf359f wrote: »

Ah here there's a massive difference between breathing out and singing. If it was spread just by breath and lingered in the air (outside a controlled test) airplanes would have been breeding grounds, which there's no evidence that it was.

They were all probably infected before they arrived to sing

Maestro85 wrote: »

Question for you all. What if it comes back harder and more resistant to treatment again (be it in winter or next year or even 3 years from now)? How are we going to change as a nation or EU to deal with these events?

Tbh, this topic is worthy of a thread in it's own right - it's too important to get lost in the frenetic posting that goes on in here.

To give my quick and short answer, I think when this dies down we will immediately revert to type, and our lives will be consumed by the economic ramifications of this.
One would hope that it would lead to changes such as our society embracing a working from home culture, improved broadband infrastructure to facilitate this, and a rethink at government level on the maintenance of an adequate (6 months supply?) of items that are needed in various crisis scenarios.

Another obvious change would be to beef up the numbers and skill level of the likes of Civil Defence/Order of Malta, so that you have a ready supply of essential workers that can slot into key frontline roles when the manure hits the fan in various crisis scenarios.This would be a relatively low-cost option, but could have a very big impact when needed.