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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭Xertz


    My mother just told me she was in Tesco yesterday and was chatting to the cashier when a couple of men paid for a few items and LICKED the notes before handing them to the cashier. POND SCUM. :mad::mad::mad:

    What was the response from the store?
    I hope they called Gardaí and that action was taken.

    I mean that’s up there with deliberately contaminating food or consumer goods.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,329 ✭✭✭owlbethere


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Why compare to bad examples?
    To make it look better?

    Why not compare to another island like Taiwan?

    Politics has played a part in this crisis. I'm not familiar with Taiwan politics. I'm more familiar with politics from home and from counties closer to home like the UK.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,442 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    Excuse my ignornance, but what causes the peak and subsequent drop, as opposed to a continuing climb?

    Quarantine measures. After 3 weeks you should see cases peak then fall if implemented correctly


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭Coyote


    Blueshoe wrote: »
    Is there an Irish one? This being Ireland and all I'd be interested.


    Hi Blueshoe

    I do an updated chart each day after the number for the day are released
    I don't clam to be modeling anything other that the growth in number and the rate of reduction in infection, i do include the number so people can review for themselves

    here is the one from yesterday

    Number updated to match today's report

    remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

    I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes

    No Change in number
    507385.PNG

    Slow Change
    507386.PNG

    Big Drop in numbers
    507387.PNG

    again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
    if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
    everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

    3 weeks no change 44K
    3 weeks slow change 29K
    3 weeks big drop 9K

    1 month no change 151K
    1 month slow change 56K
    1 month big drop 11K

    intresting visualization of covid
    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

    you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,774 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Ireland is nothing like Taiwan either. People need to forget this notion that being an island means anything.

    It is easier to control borders if one chooses to on an island even with a shared border as we saw during the foot and mouth disease outbreak.

    Where the Irish government were able to seal the border to protect the animals that were at risk.
    There was nothing like this done to stop another virus.
    More was done in the past to protect animals than was done to protect humans in this country in trying to stop a virus entering the country.


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,964 ✭✭✭Blueshoe


    Coyote wrote: »
    Hi Blueshoe

    I do an updated chart each day after the number for the day are released
    I don't clam to be modeling anything other that the growth in number and the rate of reduction in infection, i do include the number so people can review for themselves

    here is the one from yesterday

    Number updated to match today's report

    remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

    I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes

    No Change in number
    507385.PNG

    Slow Change
    507386.PNG

    Big Drop in numbers
    507387.PNG

    again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
    if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
    everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

    3 weeks no change 44K
    3 weeks slow change 29K
    3 weeks big drop 9K

    1 month no change 151K
    1 month slow change 56K
    1 month big drop 11K

    intresting visualization of covid
    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

    you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

    Thanks chief


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,738 ✭✭✭✭kowloon


    My eyes!

    Yeah, sorry it turned out like that!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    Interesting read from a health sector worker in the UK.




    I'll be honest, as I see it due to working in Intensive Care. The lack of ventilators, which the government is falling over itself to sort, is not the biggest issue at the moment, it'll be the lack of suitably trained people to operate the ventilators effectively, as part of overall care for a critically unwell patient.

    You can give (and we are) non-Intensive Care nurses basic training on ventilators but, as experience is showing, many Covid-19 patients that are being ventilated on Intensive Care Units are effectively in multi organ failure, requiring wider treatment than 'just' ventilation.

    Even those patients who aren't in multi organ failure require more complex treatment regimes due to the nature of the high pressures required for effective ventilation and to keep patients as sedated as we can in order that they are compliant with the ventilation settings.

    (My apologies but some 'shop talk' will appear now, I'll link to articles explaining what I'm talking about where I can)

    We are having to heavily sedate patients far deeper than the levels we usually aim for.

    Usually we try to sedate patients to a RASS of 0 to -2, which means patients are very lightly sedated, often able to breath spontaneously under the sedation. This helps maintain strength in muscle groups required for breathing and means that hospital stays are shortened, less rehabilitation is required and patients outcomes are overall much better.

    With Covid-19 though we are having to ventilate patients with much higher pressures than we normally would in order to counter the effects of the pneumonia that it causes. These higher pressures cause issues with patients not 'sycronising' with the events, in short because the body finds it uncomfortable and triesto resist (desyncronising). As a result we're generally having to sedate patients to a RASS of-4 to -5 (so-called "flattening them out") and are very often also having to use paralysing medications to ensure total compliance.

    This level of sedation then introduces other issues, predominately sedation-related hypotension (low blood pressure), for which we then have to give other medications (inotropes) in order to vasoconstrict the vascular system and keep blood pressure high around the core organs to keep them perfused (well oxygenated via blood flow).

    Using inotropes though has a knock-on issue of it's own, or rather two predominate ones; lower blood pressure in kidneys and poor blood flow at the extremities. The former causes a reduction in urine production, leading to poor excretion of harmful waste products within the blood stream, the latter can lead (in extreme case) to necrosis (cell death from oxygen starvation).

    To add to this, we are unable to directly treat Covid-19 as there is currently no cure, so we're relying upon patients own immune system to deal with it. This causes other issues, among them; the immune response requiring large amounts of glucose to be released into the blood system to 'feed the body' and, as a consequence of so much glucose being used metabolically, an increase in the amount of Ketones within the blood.

    The large amount of glucose needs to both be supplemented (through Nasogastric Feeding) and controlled (with Insulin) to try and restrict the levels of blood glucose. If left unchecked the body will just keep glucose (causing Hyperglycemia) and 'burning it' metabolically and in doing so releasing increasing amounts of Ketone (which is an acid, so causing Ketoacidosis). This rise in acidity, compounded by a drop in urine output, causes a drop in blood Ph, which is incredibly damaging to all parts of the body at a cellular level.

    Whilst there is far more involved in looking afte a patient on Intensive Care I hope that this brief explanation shows that 'merely' putting someone on a ventilator has a knock-on to multiple organ groups, all that in turn have a knock-on to other ones.

    Teaching someone to operate a ventilator is (comparatively) simple. Teaching someone how to titrate medications, adjust ventilator settings, when to give additional medications to address issues with observed patient 'vitals' etc is not. This is why, as I mentioned earlier in the thread, it can take 12-18 months of additional specialist training before a registered nurse can operate safely as an Intensive Care nurse.

    We have to be able to keep the most dependant patients alive without the benefit of calling a doctor for advice all the time. Indeed, generally, the junior doctors will cede to the knowledge of nurses with regards to Intensive Care patients as we're often far more experienced in such s specialist ares than they are (due to the nature of their training/placement program).

    - Ventilators are not the sole issue.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,757 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Coyote wrote: »
    Hi Blueshoe

    I do an updated chart each day after the number for the day are released
    I don't clam to be modeling anything other that the growth in number and the rate of reduction in infection, i do include the number so people can review for themselves

    here is the one from yesterday

    Number updated to match today's report

    remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

    I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes
    Is there a reason you're using 500 as the number for ICU? HSE saying 1200.
    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-hse-braces-for-possible-peak-of-covid-19-cases-in-mid-april-1.4215029


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 12,473 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Excuse my ignornance, but what causes the peak and subsequent drop, as opposed to a continuing climb?

    Yeah, I'd like to know this too.
    What causes the downward curve in epidemics, apart from herd immunity or lack of "fuel", social distancing etc.

    Or just all those things?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,442 ✭✭✭✭rossie1977


    10s of thousands of animals were slaughtered on this island during foot and mouth


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,865 ✭✭✭✭thebaz


    I found this troubling and sad (ther will be other tragedies apart from virus deaths alone ) :-

    Thomas Schaefer, the finance minister of Germany’s Hesse state, took his own life apparently after becoming “deeply worried” about how to cope with the economic fallout from the epidemic.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    holyhead wrote: »
    I see a poster whining about how the Government is handling this crisis. All I can say is I would rather be here than in the UK or the USA. Yes the Government have made mistakes but the said poster also omitted the extent to which idiotic behaviour by people, i.e. going to cheltenham, also contributed to the crisis we are living through. I think our Government is doing right by the country and us as a people.

    But the government should have intervened in the case of Cheltenham, advised not to go, and said anyone returning would have to quarantine for two weeks.

    I think they're doing their level best now, but we're in this sorry situation because they, like so many other governments in the west, sat on their hands for the first weeks of this crisis and told us all it was grand.

    If you want people to stop criticising them then perhaps you could be a little less effusive in your praise.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,774 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    owlbethere wrote: »
    Politics has played a part in this crisis. I'm not familiar with Taiwan politics. I'm more familiar with politics from home and from counties closer to home like the UK.

    The UK is a country like Ireland that made it up as they went along and now the Tories are surging in the polls.
    It is easy to make people think one is doing a good job.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,239 ✭✭✭Coyote




    Hi

    from the link

    There are close to 500 dedicated ICU beds in the public and private hospitals

    I believe that they are trying to incres the number and the 1200 number was critical care beds, I don't clam to know what the difference is from ICU to critical care beds


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,338 ✭✭✭blackcard


    OUTOFSYNC wrote: »
    Sisters neighbours having BBQ/ party. A number of guests visiting. Small estate with communal parking. She's raging. Most of neighbours have been very good, not mixing physically, a mix of families with small kids and older retirees that usually have good rapport. These neighbours having party just moved in before Xmas and are an unknown entity. I think it's very irresponsible.

    This is selfish, ignorant and criminal behaviour. When the vast majority of people are following the guidelines for isolation and are doing so at a high personal financial cost, idiots like these are undermining the national effort to manage the epidemic. It is possible that their actions will lead to people losing their lives


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,220 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    Some positive news, looks like today's figures for deaths in Italy may be lower than yesterday's. Lombardy region which is worst affected says they have 417 deaths in the last 24 hrs which is down from 546 yesterday.

    This should feed positively in to national figures. Still horrific though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 497 ✭✭loughside


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Ireland is just buying more from them...PPE.

    The Netherlands bought PPE from China which was defective, Ireland is buying hundreds of millions of euro worth...quality better be checked.


    A village idiot would have done due diligence before committing to purchase, done sample testing and quality control,


    but the Irish gov.... `Ach sure they`ll be gran lads` attitude



    thick as champ.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,712 ✭✭✭cloudatlas


    holyhead wrote: »
    Please outline for me how he has changed tack. I'm really curious now?

    From go out and meet in groups of four to only go 2k outside your front door? Yeah?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,210 ✭✭✭Mervyn Skidmore


    RobertKK wrote: »
    It is easier to control borders if one chooses to on an island even with a shared border as we saw during the foot and mouth disease outbreak.

    Where the Irish government were able to seal the border to protect the animals that were at risk.
    There was nothing like this done to stop another virus.
    More was done in the past to protect animals than was done to protect humans in this country in trying to stop a virus entering the country.

    Sorry but I completely disagree with you. The virus was likely in this country long before the first confirmed case was reported. The reaction cannot be compared to foot and mouth also. It is much easier to control animals than humans who have significant rights. Also, animals had to be culled during the foot and mouth outbreak, imagine trying to propose that for humans.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Dunno what flu stats you were looking at?
    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
    12000-60,000 deaths in the US from flu annually. Significantly more than twice as deadly as flu going by the 100-200k death estimate form the coronavirus pandemic in the US. So between a minimum of 3x times and up to 16x times as deadly, thats with major interventions to stop the spread

    Over 2 years was what Fauci said..

    So based on his estimates, it may be claim less lives than the flu.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,606 ✭✭✭Deep Thought


    Coyote wrote: »
    Hi Blueshoe

    I do an updated chart each day after the number for the day are released
    I don't clam to be modeling anything other that the growth in number and the rate of reduction in infection, i do include the number so people can review for themselves

    here is the one from yesterday

    Number updated to match today's report

    remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

    I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes

    No Change in number
    507385.PNG

    Slow Change
    507386.PNG

    Big Drop in numbers
    507387.PNG

    again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
    if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
    everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

    3 weeks no change 44K
    3 weeks slow change 29K
    3 weeks big drop 9K

    1 month no change 151K
    1 month slow change 56K
    1 month big drop 11K

    intresting visualization of covid
    http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

    you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

    What’s your background? Stats? Computer modeling? AI?

    By their own admission, they expected us to have hit 10,000 by Friday and we were just over 2000

    The narrower a man’s mind, the broader his statements.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,249 ✭✭✭holyhead


    cloudatlas wrote: »
    From go out and meet in groups of four to only go 2k outside your front door? Yeah?

    Everywhere has gradually scaled back interaction. We are not unique in this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,548 ✭✭✭Martina1991


    Coyote wrote: »
    https://www.rte.ie/player/onnow/66546216065

    HSE Covid-19 Briefing Sunday 29/3/2020

    after new critral = 15K to be tested
    tested 11K have appointment
    4K waiting for appointment
    5K a day testing
    opening more

    plan to have 15K per day by end of the week


    they also reported they planed to have 1200 bed for critical care, I'm not sure quite what the difference from ICU beds there is if any
    Why do they not release how many test have been done up to now or how many tests are being done per day. according to another poster they have run out of kits. I dont know if its true but they are not telling it as it is. 700 per day seems to be the number which is not acceptable.

    Can you clarify what you keep referring to about tests "being done". Do you mean people being swabbed or tests actually performed? Because they are two different things and lots of people use the term "testing" for both.

    Coyote has posted numbers from RTE today. ~5,000 tests are being carried out a day in labs across the country. Even if certain centres are running low on swabs, it will give the labs a chance to catch up with the backlog until more swabs arrive.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,694 ✭✭✭Talisman


    So has anybody used the free postcards that An Post delivered during the week?
    Never got them. Only two items of post were received in our house last week - the yellow Covid-19 handbook and an Amazon order.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,165 ✭✭✭timmy_mallet


    loughside wrote: »
    A village idiot would have done due diligence before committing to purchase, done sample testing and quality control,


    but the Irish gov.... `Ach sure they`ll be gran lads` attitude



    thick as champ.

    Unlikey. That's not how procurement in the government works.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,444 ✭✭✭BluePlanet


    RobertKK wrote: »
    The surge in support for FG shows that if you do a really bad job and do very little to stop a virus taking hold of a country, it has political benefits.
    The crisis can be used to brainwash people when they had and are doing a bad job.
    It is a reward for the failure that has led us to this position.
    Not enough ICU beds, medical equipment, PPE etc, but they talk well, lets forget they helped make this happen through inaction...

    The same is happening in other countries, failure is being rewarded.
    Let's not forget the laissez faire, neoliberal economic ideology that put us here too:

    Reward hoarding private wealth and to hell with the public good.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,165 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    loughside wrote: »
    A village idiot would have done due diligence before committing to purchase, done sample testing and quality control,


    but the Irish gov.... `Ach sure they`ll be gran lads` attitude



    thick as champ.

    As you seem to be the expert at this...where would you have sourced the PPE and how would you do your due diligence in a speedier manner?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,165 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Unlikey. That's not how procurement in the government works.

    Now now! He obviously knows better.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,602 ✭✭✭Funkfield


    OUTOFSYNC wrote: »
    Sisters neighbours having BBQ/ party. A number of guests visiting. Small estate with communal parking. She's raging. Most of neighbours have been very good, not mixing physically, a mix of families with small kids and older retirees that usually have good rapport. These neighbours having party just moved in before Xmas and are an unknown entity. I think it's very irresponsible.

    report it?


This discussion has been closed.
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