CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

Roger_007 · 29-03-2020 09:17AM

megabomberman wrote: »

Good post Coyote, I just want to mention that since the majority of our cases have been detected in the past week our cases per death is artificially high, South Korea's slid from 100+ to where it is now as cases slowly resolved to recovery or death. We still have a ways to go, but to be confident that we are detecting most of our cases that 67 should be 100+ ala Germany.

We are obvious doing far better than the UK, France etc.

I was listening to BBC Radio 4 this morning and there was some boffin on analysing the statistics on deaths from Covid-19. I didn’t hear the beginning so I don’t know who he was or what his official status is.
His job, apparently, is to analyse the ‘normal’ rates and causes of death in the UK. They also factor in the occurrence of major health issues for different age ranges. This enables them to predict for any age cohort with various health conditions, how many of those people will likely die in a given period, say a year.
When they had sufficient data from deaths due to Covid, they found that so far it mapped almost exactly what they would have predicted for that cohort of people, but over a slightly longer period of time.
He made a prediction that at the end of the year the overall number of deaths from all causes will be the same as normal. What will be slightly different is the distribution timewise of the occurrence of the deaths.
I think the point he was making is that whatever the death toll is, due to Covid, it will not increase the overall number of deaths which would have occurred anyway.

caveat emptor · 29-03-2020 09:17AM

MipMap wrote: »

During the famine food was exported from Ireland.

Why do people think that a US company, based in Ireland, would serve our
needs first?

Do they Think our government would stand up to Trump?

About the ventilators. Countries are sequestering ****. (that's the right word. look it up) We should dip our toe in the water. I saw supplies from Italy were blocked. It's clear international norms are suspended. We need to grow a pair of balls and play big boy football.

PowerToWait · 29-03-2020 09:18AM

all about the mane wrote: »

They are right

Just think critically about why it is supposedly useless to wear a mask? And ask yourself why every official in every news clip you’ve seen from every country in the world, police, soldiers for example, and Gardaí here, not to mention all the rush to get masks for health care workers globally.

Is it to look cool?

caveat emptor · 29-03-2020 09:20AM

Sam Quentin wrote: »

This is a perfect example of fake news. All the graphics all the lighting...so fecking fake and modern technology crap....
That absolute shíte doesn't even make one IOTA if even only half of those at the beach were infected. Which is an impossibility....
Remember folks infection rates are a small percentage of any population and death rates an even smaller percentage. Keep up the social distancing and keep safe,. you're doing a great job..

Read Edward Snowdens book or understand technology at a fundamental level. Either way it's out there. Why to criminals use "burner phones"?

This is a a pandemic

paul71 · 29-03-2020 09:21AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Total nonsense to compare us with Germany. Like for like us with countries of similar population as procurement volume discount means that Germany get much more for their euro.

It'll still paint our HSE administration as a nightmare but will be a much more accurate/informative figure.

Its a factual figure how much more accurate do you require than a straight fact? Would you propose we spend 10k per head?

Harry Palmr · 29-03-2020 09:21AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I think the point he was making is that whatever the death toll is, due to Covid, it will not increase the overall number of deaths which would have occurred anyway.

Which is why if it's sheltered accommodation for the elderly and nursing homes that are accounting for a large part of ICU and deaths we should actually know that as it would help put some meaningful context on the stats.

all about the mane · 29-03-2020 09:22AM

PowerToWait wrote: »

Just think critically about why it is supposedly useless to wear a mask? And ask yourself why every official in every news clip you’ve seen from every country in the world, police, soldiers for example, and Gardaí here, not to mention all the rush to get masks for health care workers globally.

Is it to look cool?

I have to wear a mask as part of my job. I know the upsides and downsides of wearing them. Their usefulness is negligible in a situation like this.
What are you talking about every official in every clip. That is outright bullsh1t

caveat emptor · 29-03-2020 09:22AM

givyjoe wrote: »

But but but, masks don't help...

https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1244010733714788352?s=19

https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1244010733714788352?s=19
Don't know how much time I spent arguing with people on here. I was called a lunatic. Follow the guidelines. FFS . That's the thing about physics and maths. Doesn't matter who says the sun goes around us. It doesn't.

Signore Fancy Pants · 29-03-2020 09:23AM

Look at this flute.

Be careful out there.

https://twitter.com/GardaTraffic/status/1244140535360733186?s=19

all about the mane · 29-03-2020 09:26AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1244010733714788352?s=19
Don't know how much time I spent arguing with people on here. I was called a lunatic. Follow the guidelines. FFS . That's the thing about physics and maths. Doesn't matter who says the sun goes around us. It doesn't.

Seriously. Quoting some bullsh1t twitter account. Drawing the conclusion that the graph you have up is laughable.

Lavinia · 29-03-2020 09:26AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

https://twitter.com/patphelan/status/1244010733714788352?s=19
Don't know how much time I spent arguing with people on here. I was called a lunatic. Follow the guidelines. FFS . That's the thing about physics and maths. Doesn't matter who says the sun goes around us. It doesn't.

Masks surely are not 100 percent protection but they do help to certain extent.

so for that extent even so little i was wearing a mask last week when i was going out, and disposed them as soon as i got home.

29-03-2020 09:27AM

paul71 wrote: »

Its a factual figure how much more accurate do you require than a straight fact? Would you propose we spend 10k per head?

Because it is two topline figures ignoring how those figures were achieved. Lies, damned lies, and statistics.

Germany has a population of 83million. They can leverage that to get massive discounts on material, equipment, and building projects. They do not pay full price for their goods, we pay much more (per item) than they do

So their €5,300 in spending would, proportionally, cost us a lot more.

wellwhynot · 29-03-2020 09:27AM

Does anyone know how many ventilators we have in the country today? Also oxygen machines? I know we ordered more of both but did we actually receive any.

Also how many ICU beds do we have today?

Gynoid · 29-03-2020 09:28AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

When they had sufficient data from deaths due to Covid, they found that so far it mapped almost exactly what they would have predicted for that cohort of people, but over a slightly longer period of time.
He made a prediction that at the end of the year the overall number of deaths from all causes will be the same as normal. What will be slightly different is the distribution timewise of the occurrence of the deaths.
I think the point he was making is that whatever the death toll is, due to Covid, it will not increase the overall number of deaths which would have occurred anyway.

I am going to leave a small compartment in my mind open for the possibility that might be true.
But for now, with the images and records from ICUs in Spain, Italy, NYC, etc there is definitely something else going on. Something not normal. And those ICUs report it also includes younger people, say 30 to 50, being very very seriously ill. Some say 40% of very sick are not elderly. Maybe the younger dont get critically sick as often, but something very disturbing is going on.

brendane · 29-03-2020 09:28AM

Are we doing anything to increase the number of ICU beds.

When you listen to a lot of foreign commentators, they frequently reference that we have one of the lowest ICU bed rates per capita in Europe.

Are we doing anything on the scale of the uk in the events centre in London and if we did introduce emergency beds, would we have the required equipment to make it function as an icu bed?

angel eyes 2012 · 29-03-2020 09:28AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Wow, good point!

Your health insurance will kick in if you are admitted to a public hospital for a non-covid related illness or injury otherwise you will pay the 80e per night fee.

all about the mane · 29-03-2020 09:29AM

Lavinia wrote: »

Masks surely are not 100 percent protection but they do help to certain extent.

so for that extent even so little i was wearing a mask last week when i was going out, and disposed them as soon as i got home.

Why, are you covid19 positive?

jackboy · 29-03-2020 09:29AM

If there was a plentiful supply of masks available the HSE would be recommending the public to always wear them outside the home. Don’t believe the lies that they are not effective.

29-03-2020 09:30AM

brendane wrote: »

Are we doing anything to increase the number of ICU beds.

When you listen to a lot of foreign commentators, they frequently reference that we have one of the lowest ICU bed rates per capita in Europe.

Are we doing anything on the scale of the uk in the events centre in London and if we did introduce emergency beds, would we have the required equipment to make it function as an icu bed?

we would be missing the most important "part", the nurse

wadacrack · 29-03-2020 09:30AM

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/28/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html?referringSource=articleShare

caveat emptor · 29-03-2020 09:31AM

little bess wrote: »

Absolutely. My husband has been wearing ffp3 respirators in work (construction) when in the vicinity of any colleagues for the last two weeks and has been laughed at and told ‘they don’t work for the virus!’

This is from people who have been trained to use them for protection and have had them readily available to use.

Can people not use their own brains and do some f****n research.

That's part of the reason I posted about it. I'd hate to think people getting abused because they are right. It's clear they work.

It's like saying a gun can't kill someone because most people shoot themselves in the foot and soldiers need them first. Doesn't address the people who saw this for what it was and got one ahead of time when there wasn't a burden on the system.

all about the mane · 29-03-2020 09:31AM

jackboy wrote: »

If there was a plentiful supply of masks available the HSE would be recommending the public to always wear them outside the home. Don’t believe the lies that they are not effective.

No they wouldn't

29-03-2020 09:32AM

jackboy wrote: »

If there was a plentiful supply of masks available the HSE would be recommending the public to always wear them outside the home. Don’t believe the lies that they are not effective.

They're not freely available
They're not all effective
To be effective everyone would need the correct versions and wear them at all times
Everyone would need to know how to properly handle them (Top Tip: People are idiots)
They would give morons an excuse to break isolation (the most effective measure)

Lavinia · 29-03-2020 09:32AM

all about the mane wrote: »

Why, are you covid19 positive?

a week after my last going out i am okay so i suppose i can safely say that i am not.

however people can be positive and have no symptoms and walk around spreading it without even knowing it

jackboy · 29-03-2020 09:34AM

Deleted User wrote: »

They're not freely available
They're not all effective
To be effective everyone would need the correct versions and wear them at all times
Everyone would need to know how to properly handle them (Top Tip: People are idiots)
They would give morons an excuse to break isolation (the most effective measure)

In other words, they are effective.

all about the mane · 29-03-2020 09:34AM

Lavinia wrote: »

a week after my last going out i am okay so i suppose i can safely say that i am not.

however people can be positive and have no symptoms and walk around spreading it without even knowing it

they can. but a mask isn't going to make any difference

caveat emptor · 29-03-2020 09:35AM

MipMap wrote: »

I have a fridge full of fish fingers and bread but I really need a bag of sugar, peanut butter and I'm running low on Bacardi!

Whatever about the virus, that diet truly scares me.

all about the mane · 29-03-2020 09:35AM

jackboy wrote: »

In other words, they are effective.

No, they are not

29-03-2020 09:35AM

Roger_007 wrote: »

I was listening to BBC Radio 4 this morning and there was some boffin on analysing the statistics on deaths from Covid-19. I didn’t hear the beginning so I don’t know who he was or what his official status is.
His job, apparently, is to analyse the ‘normal’ rates and causes of death in the UK. They also factor in the occurrence of major health issues for different age ranges. This enables them to predict for any age cohort with various health conditions, how many of those people will likely die in a given period, say a year.
When they had sufficient data from deaths due to Covid, they found that so far it mapped almost exactly what they would have predicted for that cohort of people, but over a slightly longer period of time.
He made a prediction that at the end of the year the overall number of deaths from all causes will be the same as normal. What will be slightly different is the distribution timewise of the occurrence of the deaths.
I think the point he was making is that whatever the death toll is, due to Covid, it will not increase the overall number of deaths which would have occurred anyway.

Imagine next years post mortem on the 2020 worldwide Covid19 crisis if what this man says turns out to be true. How is Sweden getting on?

Lavinia · 29-03-2020 09:35AM

all about the mane wrote: »

they can. but a mask isn't going to make any difference

in your opinion

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03