CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

ACitizenErased wrote: »

It has been confirmed by Richard Chambers that this is true.

Must have missed that while I was on another thread!!!

294 new cases, I thought we might be seeing some decreasing in numbers now considering testing criteria changed and social physical distancing

New Home wrote: »

The difference is that now Over 65s aren't being treated. There's a damn big difference between someone who's 65 and someone who's 85 or 95.

We have a lot of capacity yet before that happens here. Fingers crossed.

Deleted User wrote: »

So will an economic catastrophe, with all the addiction, despair, depression, anxiety, suicides, public health deterioration, huge health inequalities and catastrophically underfunded HSE (even more than now) that would go along with that catastrophe. The only question is would that cause more deaths than the Coronavirus. Probably, if the lockdown goes on for more than a month or so

This is the essance of the debate, it's just a matter of deciding which side you're on.

Coyote wrote: »

Number updated to match today's report

remember the 500 ICU beds a lot of them are in use already just not for Covid19

I added in charts for all 3 rate of growth, i'm still working on them so forgive any mistakes

No Change in number


Slow Change


Big Drop in numbers


again with all of this i'm just trying to show people the 14 day delay in an change in how we deal with this
if you wait till we are overloaded it's too late
everyone has to make up there own mind but at least look at the maths

3 weeks no change 44K
3 weeks slow change 29K
3 weeks big drop 9K

1 month no change 151K
1 month slow change 56K
1 month big drop 11K

intresting visualization of covid
http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

you need to decide what you do today to affect 3 weeks from now

No offence, but you're pulling these figures out of your arse just to scare people who don't understand stats or probability.

These numbers look impressive but they're built on faulty assumptions. Most of your log curves are based on the assumption that there's no lockdown.

You have no idea what's going to happen, you're just plugging numbers into Excel based in a few basic formulae.

Leave the guessing to the experts and stop spouting magical numbers. Are you related to Eddie Hobbs by any chance?

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

294 new cases, I thought we might be seeing some decreasing in numbers now considering testing criteria changed and social physical distancing

A lot of people didn’t change much up until today. If the new rules are changing the way you’re going about you’re daily life you likely weren’t doing all you could.

I wouldn’t expect to see a tangible benefit for at least 2 weeks and the numbers will likely escalate severely before then.

I heard today Germany are doing 500k tests a week , wtf are we like !

pjohnson wrote: »

Cumulative ICU is bizarre. Presumably you could subtract a fair number of the deceased from that figure to get the current. Then theres recoveries aswell to remove from that cumulative figure. By purposefully over-reporting it it gives a much bleaker impression of the situation here and suggests we are much closer to filling ICU completely than we actually are.

How can they tell us to focus on an ICU figure that is false? Hope to god we dont but we could easily end up with an ICU figure that far exceeds our ICU capacity when in reality we arent over capacity reporting this way. I dont see the purpose of it....

Yeah cumulative ICU stats are next to useless and if the figure goes over the 500 odd ICU beds actually available it is going to set in panic. Its a false figure, Im not sure who came up with reporting it that way but its not a bright idea.

Is there anyone else getting fcukin hounded with people sending them sh1te about all this on what’s ap.people at home with fcuk all to do except bounce what’s ap messages around the place.
Fcukin phone is going to end up in the bin soon.
The sooner people go back to normal the better

Looks like a lot of people have committed suicide in Wuhan, God bless them. https://mobile.twitter.com/ChinaInFocusNTD/status/1243927427270807559

Purple Mountain wrote: »

There's actually a lot of sense in your post.
Look at the trolley overcrowding where many old people had been left to be exposed to infection and a lack of dignity. (I'm not blaming our health care workers BTW for the overcrowding).
There was no rush to cocoon then.

Exactly. Just to expand on this, the HSE has been in existence since 2005, the economy was booming in 2005, then there was a massive bust, then a boom of sorts again. One of the constants in that time has been a shambolic health service which has undoubtedly resulted in "poor outcomes" for many people that have used the service. Reasons for this are complex and blame can be directed at HSE managers, successive governments, consultants, GPs, unions and the general public. But whatever the reasons, it is likely that suboptimal care has killed far more people in the 15 years since the formation of the HSE than will be killed by Covid19 in Ireland.

E.g. the shortage of ICU beds that has been going on for years, how many beds were added in the last few weeks vs in the last 15 years. The extra beds will undoubtedly help with Covid19 and this will be milked and spun for all its worth. We should have had those beds long before Covid19 appeared.