CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

ihdxwz4a3pem9j · 28-03-2020 02:20PM

The government has to think of the collective good. They have to weigh up the excess deaths, secondary to failure to control the virus (this will include people who die of COVID and people who die from unrelated illnesses as a result of the lack of resources) versus the excess amount of people that will die from mental health issues (i.e. die by suicide) secondary to several weeks of social restrictions. Neither strategy will spare all lives . But we have to make the decision about which option will save the maximum number of lives (failure to restrict the virus could result in an excess of a hundred-thousand lives in the long-run). Social restriction will cause less societal damage. And finally, there was a great article in the Irish Times today. They touted the fact that investors will be interested in Ireland, as a long-term base, if we prove that we act cohesively and logically in a time of disaster

joe40 · 28-03-2020 02:20PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

So will an economic catastrophe, with all the addiction, despair, depression, anxiety, suicides, public health deterioration, huge health inequalities and catastrophically underfunded HSE (even more than now) that would go along with that catastrophe. The only question is would that cause more deaths than the Coronavirus. Probably, if the lockdown goes on for more than a month or so

The things you talk about are real risks but the coronavirus has the potential to be worse, a lot worse. I don't think anyone is saying there won't be a substantial cost to current measures. The impact will be huge but ultimately the lesser of two evils. There are no easy solutions.

cosanostra · 28-03-2020 02:20PM

Is our high number of healthcare workers infected due to the initial cases surrounding CUH? if memory serves me right there was an infected person returned from italy who worked in the hospital and infected people there unintentionally of course

limnam · 28-03-2020 02:21PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Weare at what 70 something ICU case with capacity for near 500

Secondly id glady be remembered as part of a generation that ****ed the economy than part of a generation that sat by and done Nothing as there parents and grand parents died alone in hospital beds,

**** the economy, **** the government, Let's save as many of our own people as we can, every day people, people you know, loved ones of us all, lifes saved from each and every community in this country means more to the people, the economy can wait

500?

I would have thought normally we're at about 80% capacity in ICU outside of covid.

+70 covid cases. Leaves very little room.

yourdeadwright · 28-03-2020 02:21PM

Yester wrote: »

Are vape shops closed? I know it's trivial in the scheme of things but I switched from smoking to vaping a couple of days ago and didn't stock up.

Not being funny but give serious thought that'its time to quit, vaping is very hard on the lungs and if you catch this ****er of a virus that's where it'll be targeting you,

An Ciarraioch · 28-03-2020 02:21PM

Two further deaths in NI, 49 new cases:

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1243903176006303745

facehugger99 · 28-03-2020 02:21PM

Risteard81 wrote: »

Only the incredibly stupid cannot see and understand this.

It's a mixture of stupidity and inability to want to recognise the reality.

The politicians and their advisors can't come out and say it. They just want to be able to say "well, we tried everything".

Eventually the mood will change after a couple of months of lockdown and the politicians will, as usual, follow the public mood.

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

Tandey · 28-03-2020 02:22PM

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

How do you know it was pandemic-related?

Don’t think the poster said it was related. The pandemic crisis wouldn’t have helped anyway.

CaoinDory · 28-03-2020 02:23PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Probably, if the lockdown goes on for more than a month or so

If people would do this thing properly, the lock down wouldn't need to last as long... but people wont. Which will draw it out longer!

Tandey · 28-03-2020 02:24PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's a mixture of stupidity and inability to want to recognise the reality.

The politicians and their advisors can't come out and say it. They just want to be able to say "well, we tried everything".

Eventually the mood will change after a couple of months of lockdown and the politicians will, as usual, follow the public mood.

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

Ok mister foresight.

What are you doing to help in this pandemic?

Don’t be facehugging would be my advice for you.

MipMap · 28-03-2020 02:24PM

Dr hoRse wrote: »

Not really, and I'll try to explain why while keeping it as basic as possible because I don't know your background.
The word coming from Italy is that they're trying to manage as many people outside of home now with home oxygen cylinders with a relatively low flow rate. This is for mildly hypoxic people not requiring positive pressure ventilation, and the idea is to keep these people out of hospital to reduce spread and contamination, hospitals are being identified as the major spreading factor in Italy and Spain now.
Those diving units I assume you're talking about are the gas cannisters? which requires normal negative pressure ventilation to draw oxygen, and you need to produce a certain level of negative pressure before you get flow, thats not going to help people unfortunately.
The positive pressure from a ventilator reduces the work of breathing for a person and prevents small airway and gas exchange units from collapsing, as these units collapse gas exchange becomes increasingly more difficult (the analogy is blowing up a balloon at the start, initially it takes a lot of effort, then as it starts to inflate you're in the sweet spot and you can increase and decrease the volume of air in the balloon with a lot less effort), these lungs are very sick, like a very stiff balloon thats difficult to inflate.

What about Nebulisers, Vetolin.

I suffer from COPD and these work great

Discodog · 28-03-2020 02:26PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Massive coronary just after I've shot my bolt into a Russian lingerie model. While off my tits on goofballs.

Nah. You need to copy the great Jon Entwistle - 2 young hookers & a pile of cocaine :pac:

28-03-2020 02:26PM

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

I'm telling her I have to walk alone.

Not a Liverpool fan then?

I'll get me coat. Wait, where wilI I go?

joe40 · 28-03-2020 02:27PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

The lockdown isn't going to work, anyone with access to half a brain and a calculator can see this.

According to Varadkar we're already nearly at ICU capacity after a couple of thousand confirmed cases and a few weeks in.

Even if we assume that there's actually 10 times the number of confirmed cases in the country, then we've around 20,000 infected out of 4.8 million and we're at capacity.

So, if we want to spread this out so ICU's don't get overwhelmed and need 2 weeks for every 20,000 that are infected, that works out at maintaining a lockdown for 480 weeks.

Even if we ramp up the ICU spaces by 4 times, that's 120 weeks we need to lock down.

The economy will be fcuked after 4 months of this - and there won't be money to borrow.

We're doing nothing now other than prolonging the inevitable while fcuking the economy at the same time.

You're right anyone with access to half a brain probably will think like that.
Thankfully the medics leading this have access to full brains plus years of experience.
But please keep spouting nonsense here it passes the time...

yourdeadwright · 28-03-2020 02:27PM

limnam wrote: »

500?

I would have thought normally we're at about 80% capacity in ICU outside of covid.

+70 covid cases. Leaves very little room.

There was 257 i Last year in public hospitals and now the private section have opened up all there ones to be used

I believe it's 457 icu bed, 257 originally, 150 from private hospitals and a further 50 made operational by the HSE,

That's from reading different reports

Iv no idea how many are in use with non Covid cases

Curious_Case · 28-03-2020 02:27PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's a mixture of stupidity and inability to want to recognise the reality.

The politicians and their advisors can't come out and say it. They just want to be able to say "well, we tried everything".

Eventually the mood will change after a couple of months of lockdown and the politicians will, as usual, follow the public mood.

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

Of course it's unsustainable but hasn't a duration of 12 weeks been mentioned?

The lockdown will buy time to enable preparations to be ramped up.

If nothing is done, the number of people requiring ICU care will exceed the number of available ICU beds and so the FATALITY RATE WILL RISE.

Tandey · 28-03-2020 02:27PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not a Liverpool fan then?

I'll get me coat. Wait, where wilI I go?

Don’t go to Liverpool in the hope to see a premier league trophy anyway. Unless you enjoy disappointment.

ChikiChiki · 28-03-2020 02:28PM

yerwanthere123 wrote: »

Just found out the husband of a colleague of mine took his own life yesterday. He leaves behind a wife and six children. Invisible impact of this pandemic is/will be huge.

That is incredibly sad.

Suicide rates were bad before the crisis.

I think we will need a Mental Health Crisis Management planning running in parallel with our Covid 19 Crisis plan.

The fallout will be huge.

jackboy · 28-03-2020 02:28PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

**** the economy, **** the government, Let's save as many of our own people as we can, every day people, people you know, loved ones of us all, lifes saved from each and every community in this country means more to the people, the economy can wait

That’s fine. Are you ok with the nurses take home pay going through the floor when this crises is over?

BLIZZARD7 · 28-03-2020 02:28PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's a mixture of stupidity and inability to want to recognise the reality.

The politicians and their advisors can't come out and say it. They just want to be able to say "well, we tried everything".

Eventually the mood will change after a couple of months of lockdown and the politicians will, as usual, follow the public mood.

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

What's the alternative that doesn't involve killing off tens of thousands?

The economy can wait, this isn't just an Ireland problem, it's a global one. Money is being printed on a massive scale, there will be no shortage of it.

WhiteMemento9 · 28-03-2020 02:28PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

Do you think the penny just hasn't dropped for Bill Gates yet? The guy who predicted this 4 years ago as the biggest existential threat in his lifetime? The guy who has setup foundations to study this? The guy who has worked significantly with data-based teams that model outcome and study solutions from all angles? Maybe he is clueless about the economic impact?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UHLJ0DaMIIc

Strazdas · 28-03-2020 02:29PM

The Army are saying if you see lots of military vehicles on the streets in the next couple of weeks, there's no need to worry : they will be delivering PPE to hospitals all around the country.

cefh17 · 28-03-2020 02:29PM

Risteard81 wrote: »

Only the incredibly stupid cannot see and understand this.

What better options do you propose so Einstein?

Hobgoblin11 · 28-03-2020 02:29PM

Is the worst over in South Korea and Japan? Why are they bringing back new restrictions?

is_that_so · 28-03-2020 02:30PM

Curious_Case wrote: »

Of course it's unsustainable but hasn't a duration of 12 weeks been mentioned?

The lockdown will buy time to enable preparations to be ramped up.

If nothing is done, the number of people requiring ICU care will exceed the number of available ICU beds and so the FATALITY RATE WILL RISE.

The money side is for 12 weeks, everything else will be reviewed as we hit dates, so next check will probably be about Easter.

Downlinz · 28-03-2020 02:30PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

The lockdown was sustainable and of great benefit in Wuhan, Hong Kong and South Korea. They're now in the process of getting back to normal having successfully contained the virus.

It's the people in the west who resist the necessary measures who are causing the issues and attempting to render the efforts futile.

recyclebin · 28-03-2020 02:30PM

When are we going to get a better breakdown of the cases. Dublin and Cork are too populated to just go to county level. If people knew where the clusters were they could take extra precautions and lock down further. 2km gets you a long way and past a lot of of people in populates areas.

Why are we not using the resources of Facebook, Google and Apple to track movements of cases. They all have huge workforce here in Ireland so could create apps in no time. They already track way too much of our movements anyway, all for marketing purposes. Why not use that resource to do something good for a change?

khalessi · 28-03-2020 02:30PM

facehugger99 wrote: »

It's a mixture of stupidity and inability to want to recognise the reality.

The politicians and their advisors can't come out and say it. They just want to be able to say "well, we tried everything".

Eventually the mood will change after a couple of months of lockdown and the politicians will, as usual, follow the public mood.

The lockdown is completely unsustainable and ultimately of little benefit. It'll just take a while for the penny to drop for most people.

Do you understand what we are about to face. In NY one person is dying is dying every 17 minutes and hospitals are overwhelmed. It is described as hell only worse. https://nypost.com/2020/03/27/another-84-people-killed-by-coronavirus-in-new-york-city/

The point of the lockdown is to SLOW the SPREAD so we flatten a curve to help our hospitals. The hospitals will become overwhelmed we know that but we can lessen it by staying home for the most part.

We are about to be hit by a health tsunami of unprecedented proportions and we can help by changing our hobbies for a little while. Similar to how people used to use blackout curtains during bombing raids in war.

I know this does not suit your thinking but have a look around at your family and tell me which one you want to die. If the answer is none well then just sit down for a little while watch a movies exercise go for a short walk but help slow down the spread and flatten the curve.

I am asking you not to be so blind, as a nurse, as someone immuncompromised and as a relative of people with serious health issues. I want to be able to look at their faces when this is over. I want to be able to hug them again

Tandey · 28-03-2020 02:31PM

Mr.S wrote: »

Why don't you want to get stopped by the guards

Probably doesn’t want to catch a virus or a case.

Yester · 28-03-2020 02:31PM

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Not being funny but give serious thought that'its time to quit, vaping is very hard on the lungs and if you catch this ****er of a virus that's where it'll be targeting you,

I hear you. My plan was to cut out smoking and vape for a while before quitting completely. I know a few people that has worked for.

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03