CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

It's fairly easy to risk assess your activities and make choices.

I have only left my home in the last 2 weeks for two reasons, groceries for the family and exercise (walk/run with dog). Incidentally, with the exception of a long run last weekend, I would have been fully compliant with the new restrictions).

Risk factors to consider:

A. How many people you are likely to meet during each activity
B. How likely any person you meet is currently infectious
C. The risk of you being close enough to a person or surface to be infected

On A., I am in a year plus routine of 3-4 nightly walk / runs. I always go at night (10.00 to midnight), it's rural and in the last year I have passed one solitary person while out.
I remember, it freaked me out (let's say on 150 outings I met one person, 1-in-150 chance).

When I go to the supermarket I also like to avoid busy-ness esp. now, but it's likely still I will meet probably 6 people between the car park, queuing, in the aisles and staff.

On B., Let's be conservative and say 50,000 people in Ireland are currently infectious. That's 1-in-150 people.

On C. While outside I am on roads and can easily avoid people. There is a risk, I suppose, (if that one person and I meet again) that I could bump into him while looking at my phone, let's say 2% (1-in-50). Surface risk is not a risk as all outside.

At the shops, meanwhile, there are loads of measures in place to keep people apart, but also ever the potential to meet an absent minded person, touch a surface, etc.. let's say risk factor of picking up an infection on a trip to the supermarket is 10%. (1-in-10)

Now to compare risks.

On my walk/run A x B x C I get 1/150 * 1/90 * 1/50 = 1 in 675,000.

Going to the supermarket, it's 6/1 * 1/150 * 1/10 = 1 in 150.

Now admittedly, with all the precautions in place, both activities are low risk, but for me, exercising once a day is 4500 less dangerous than grocery shopping.

For others those numbers might be very different, e.g. urban runner, peak time shopper etc.