CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 04:14AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

So Italy's Day 1, is not Italy's Day 1.

Well it's entirely possible. It might have been day 1 technically but not day 1 for when we should be comparing like for like figures. For all we know that Chinese couple didn't spread it to anyone. Their 3rd was probably quarantined and didn't spread it to anyone either.

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 04:14AM

windy shepard henderson wrote: »

There were thousands of misdiagnosed cases in Italy that led to the situation in Italy

And don't give me the per rata crap its totally nonsense

Well that's not nice.

rossie1977 · 27-03-2020 04:20AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I know all of this, and yet, one month in, with all our knowledge (with our 'heads-up') our numbers are higher.

They shouldn't be higher.....surely?

You are confusing confirmed with actual. Obviously there was tens of thousands infected in Lombardy while the Italians thought there was only 3.

On Feb 22nd Italy had 79 confirmed cases. 14 days later it was 4,636 confirmed and 197 dead.

On March 13th Ireland had 90 confirmed cases. 14 days later its 1,819 confirmed and 19 deaths.

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 04:22AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I know all of this, and yet, one month in, with all our knowledge (with our 'heads-up') our numbers are higher.

They shouldn't be higher.....surely?

By your logic are we not far worse than the USA too?

They had their first confirmed case on the 21st of January
on the 20th of February they had only 14!!!

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 04:23AM

marilynrr wrote: »

Well it's entirely possible. For all we know that Chinese couple didn't infect anyone. Their 3rd was probably quarantined and didn't infect anyone either.

I really thought, that a month in with a population a quarter that of N Italy, our numbers would be lower than theirs.(Italy's)

Especially, as I pointed out, our population is just a fraction of theirs.

I thought it didn't bode well for us. I am on my own in this.

windy shepard henderson · 27-03-2020 04:30AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Well that's not nice.

It simply doesn't add up i don't care what anyone says.

My condolences to anyone who lost a loved one today ot since this pandemic started but America has the same per rata deaths as Ireland from the viruse.... Which country would you rather be in now

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 04:31AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I really thought, that a month in with a population a quarter that of N Italy, our numbers would be lower than theirs.(Italy's)

Especially, as I pointed out, our population is just a fraction of theirs.

I thought it didn't bode well for us. I am on my own in this.

We have been testing people even showing the mildest of symptoms. Most didn't have it.
Have Italy been testing people showing the mildest of symptoms?
Have they even been testing anyone at all since the lockdown started unless they become extremely unwell and have to go to the hospital.
I would imagine that the real Italian figures for people who had it is absolutely crazy and multiples of their official confirmed cases.

rossie1977 · 27-03-2020 04:31AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I really thought, that a month in with a population a quarter that of N Italy, our numbers would be lower than theirs.(Italy's)

Especially, as I pointed out, our population is just a fraction of theirs.

I thought it didn't bode well for us. I am on my own in this.

Luxembourg has 1/8th our population, is same size as county Roscommon and had its first confirmed infection same day as Ireland ie February 29th.

As of yesterday Luxembourg have 1,453 confirmed and 9 deaths.

What do you make of that?

humberklog · 27-03-2020 04:40AM

An interesting one to track now is Denmark and Ireland. We're much the same on infections whilst Denmark has over twice our mortalities. They had first confirmed patient about the same time as us but our graphs are a bit different (Danes had a big rise early then dipped and rose steadily (we've been more constant).
Populations are much of a muchness, Danes have a higher density and more urban dwellers however as both countries are now social distancing etc. that shouldn't matter too much.

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 04:46AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

I really thought, that a month in....

"A month in" doesn't mean anything.

In years to come when this has all been studied then people may be able to come up with some kind of formula to assess what point growth can be compared from probably based on when a certain amount of local and community transmission had started to take hold.

It's not going to be based on the first day a country had a confirmed case. First confirmed case means nothing, countries could have had citizens walking around for weeks with the virus spreading it without testing anyone or confirming any cases.
Other countries might have caught them early on.

We can certainly look at other countries and try to see patterns and assess similarities but it's just not as simple to compare from the first reported case.

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 04:50AM

windy shepard henderson wrote: »

It simply doesn't add up i don't care what anyone says.

My condolences to anyone who lost a loved one today ot since this pandemic started but America has the same per rata deaths as Ireland from the viruse.... Which country would you rather be in now

Well yeah, it adds up.

We have more cases at the end of our month one than N Italy had. That is a fact. And with a population a quarter the size of what they have in N. Italy, one would have expected that we had fewer cases. We are such a small country.

Looks like I'm on my own in thinking this.

Anyway,that was always my point. I felt it didn't bode well for us.

I have no idea why you're asking me, but no, I would not like to be in America now, or at any other time. Happy here in my little corner of Ireland.

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 04:51AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

We have more cases at the end of our month one than N Italy had. T.

We have more cases at the end of our month than the USA had too. What's your opinion on that?

windy shepard henderson · 27-03-2020 04:52AM

humberklog wrote: »

An interesting one to track now is Denmark and Ireland. We're much the same on infections whilst Denmark has over twice our mortalities. They had first confirmed patient about the same time as us but our graphs are a bit different (Danes had a big rise early then dipped and rose steadily (we've been more constant).
Populations are much of a muchness, Danes have a higher density and more urban dwellers however as both countries are now social distancing etc. that shouldn't matter too much.

They actually were one of the first countries to lock down so i imagine thsts why their numbers are getting lower

We have a huge number of people travelling in to the country mainly diaspora and weekenders holiday makers ect.. So i imagine our figures would be high given the amount of travel Irish people do

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 04:52AM

marilynrr wrote: »

"A month in" doesn't mean anything.

In years to come when this has all been studied then people may be able to come up with some kind of formula to assess what point growth can be compared from probably based on when a certain amount of local and community transmission had started to take hold.

It's not going to be based on the first day a country had a confirmed case. First confirmed case means nothing, countries could have had citizens walking around for weeks with the virus spreading it without testing anyone or confirming any cases.
Other countries might have caught them early on.

We can certainly look at other countries and try to see patterns and assess similarities but it's just not as simple to compare from the first reported case.

In fairness, didn't realize that I was submitting to the Lancet.

Research is what I do for a living.

makeandcreate · 27-03-2020 04:55AM

marilynrr wrote: »

Start from 'patient 1' in Italy instead of Italys first confirmed case.
He went to the doctor on the 14th of February, he went to the hospital after that, there was no suspicion of covid-19, no precautions were taken. No attempt to protect staff or stop the spread from a person who may have potentially had Covid-19. It was only a week later that patient 1, his pregnant wife and his friend all tested positive. That's when it all started to kick off in Lombardy.

Interesting - my DD was there on a school trip with loads of other schools and arrived home on the 16th, it was about 10 days later reports came through about Covid 19 but we were told she was out of danger on the 29th Feb. I was worried as I am immunocompromised and she had fever, coughing and red eyes March 1st but recovered in 2 days- I then had it March 5th but was worse - and had symptoms for 2 weeks could have been a regular cold. I rang HSE but no one was interested as I had not been in contact with a "known" carrier. If they had tested all the kids coming home when the first Italy case came out, we would be in a better position now as they could have been isolated instead of spreading willy nilly.

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 04:56AM

marilynrr wrote: »

We have more cases at the end of our month than the USA had too. What's your opinion on that?

Google 'Ad hominem'.

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 04:57AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Google 'Ad hominem'.

There's a few here trying to have a genuine discussion with you, you're the one not taking anything anyone says on board. It's all irrelevant to you.

windy shepard henderson · 27-03-2020 05:01AM

ThePopehimself wrote: »

Well yeah, it adds up.

We have more cases at the end of our month one than N Italy had. That is a fact. And with a population a quarter the size of what they have in N. Italy, one would have expected that we had fewer cases. We are such a small country.

Looks like I'm on my own in thinking this.

Anyway,that was always my point. I felt it didn't bode well for us.

I have no idea why you're asking me, but no, I would not like to be in America now, or at any other time. Happy here in my little corner of Ireland.

It's ok to use it in financial terms but definitely not in mortality terms, totally different

Plus if a country like Ireland which had been organised in this pandemic should not be compared to countries like Italy or USA whete their numbers are much higher then reported because they didn't act fast enough in the first place

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 05:04AM

marilynrr wrote: »

There's a few here trying to have a genuine discussion with you, you're the one not taking anything anyone says on board. It's all irrelevant to you.

Ah come on, I was making a point about Italy. About the numbers in Italy.

And you ask" We have more cases at the end of our month than the USA had too. What's your opinion on that?"

Seriously, come on.

I made my point, you and it seems everyone else disagrees. Okay.

ThePopehimself · 27-03-2020 05:11AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Because month to month they weren't testing and we were
fast forward a few days and Italy has trebled in cases

You cannot make this kind of comparison - they had thousands of cases they weren't looking for

Okay, that makes sense.

snoopboggybog · 27-03-2020 05:17AM

Any person landing in Australia after midnight on Saturday will be forced into quarantine, in hotels or other accommodation, for two weeks.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/mar/27/coronavirus-news-australia-update-live-stage-2-3-lockdown-nsw-victoria-qld-scott-morrison-restrictions-cases-death-toll-covid-19-latest-updates

spookwoman · 27-03-2020 05:19AM

makeandcreate wrote: »

Interesting - my DD was there on a school trip with loads of other schools and arrived home on the 16th, it was about 10 days later reports came through about Covid 19 but we were told she was out of danger on the 29th Feb. I was worried as I am immunocompromised and she had fever, coughing and red eyes March 1st but recovered in 2 days- I then had it March 5th but was worse - and had symptoms for 2 weeks could have been a regular cold. I rang HSE but no one was interested as I had not been in contact with a "known" carrier. If they had tested all the kids coming home when the first Italy case came out, we would be in a better position now as they could have been isolated instead of spreading willy nilly.

Red eyes is interesting, a nurse in Italy thinks that may be one of the symptoms as well.

igCorcaigh · 27-03-2020 05:55AM

Good morning everyone.

So, RTE and other media are still reporting on the 20% figure of people who get a severe illness.

Isn't that data out of date now, and should be much lower. Surely the models factor in a more accurate measure? 20% seems really high.

Grab All Association · 27-03-2020 06:09AM

makeandcreate wrote: »

Interesting - my DD was there on a school trip with loads of other schools and arrived home on the 16th, it was about 10 days later reports came through about Covid 19 but we were told she was out of danger on the 29th Feb. I was worried as I am immunocompromised and she had fever, coughing and red eyes March 1st but recovered in 2 days- I then had it March 5th but was worse - and had symptoms for 2 weeks could have been a regular cold. I rang HSE but no one was interested as I had not been in contact with a "known" carrier. If they had tested all the kids coming home when the first Italy case came out, we would be in a better position now as they could have been isolated instead of spreading willy nilly.

I can’t get through to my HSE appointed GP. Upon ringing 1850-24-1850 I was told conflicting information to what is advertised and brushed off

Fever the past two day’s, aches and pains all over and severe dehydration + not excreting urine at all. I have narcolepsy so the excessive sleeping isn’t new but to have a stomach literally full of Provigil and still be passing out on the floor is new one.

27-03-2020 06:14AM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Good morning everyone.

So, RTE and other media are still reporting on the 20% figure of people who get a severe illness.

Isn't that data out of date now, and should be much lower. Surely the models factor in a more accurate measure? 20% seems really high.

Yes, that is obscenely high. But if it scares people into staying at home, no real harm I suppose.

The whole thing is an amazing display of people who can't do stats suddenly thinking they can do stats.

marilynrr · 27-03-2020 06:14AM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Good morning everyone.

So, RTE and other media are still reporting on the 20% figure of people who get a severe illness.

Isn't that data out of date now, and should be much lower. Surely the models factor in a more accurate measure? 20% seems really high.

No it's accurate in the sense that roughly 20% have been hospitalised.
We have hospitalised more than 20% but our figures are skewed by the fact that we hospitalised a lot of the first cases to keep them quarantined.

Out of the 20% that are hospitalised most will be fine of course and won't be critically ill....but their illness is severe enough to require hospitalisation so I suppose that's why they say severe illness. Maybe some of that 20% aren't necessarily severely ill with coronavirus right now but might be elderly and have underlying health issues so they are keeping them in hospital as a precaution right now in case it worsens so that they can be quickly be moved to ICU if needed.

Gynoid · 27-03-2020 06:19AM

https://youtu.be/bE68xVXf8Kw

I cannot work embedding on this phone. This is a 5 minute video with a Doctior from a NY Hospital. Near the end she speaks of the many people aged 30 to 50 who have no co-morbidities who are becoming very sick. She mentions people who show up for completely different reasons, like car crashes or stomach pain, and when a CT scan is taken their lungs show they have the covid damage.

Quantum Erasure · 27-03-2020 06:25AM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

So, RTE and other media are still reporting on the 20% figure of people who get a severe illness.

Isn't that data out of date now, and should be much lower. Surely the models factor in a more accurate measure? 20% seems really high.

are you saying they're not taking into account those who haven't been tested? I think it's about right for confirmed cases. (maybe I'm wrong)

HopsAndJumps · 27-03-2020 06:27AM

marilynrr wrote: »

No it's accurate in the sense that roughly 20% have been hospitalised.
We have hospitalised more than 20% but our figures are skewed by the fact that we hospitalised a lot of the first cases to keep them quarantined.

Out of the 20% that are hospitalised most will be fine of course and won't be critically ill....but their illness is severe enough to require hospitalisation so I suppose that's why they say severe illness. Maybe some of that 20% aren't necessarily severely ill with coronavirus right now but might be elderly and have underlying health issues so they are keeping them in hospital as a precaution right now in case it worsens so that they can be quickly be moved to ICU if needed.

We are hospitalizing 29% of confirmed cases. Friend in there now is one of these. He has low oxygen levels.

sullivlo · 27-03-2020 06:28AM

Grab All Association wrote: »

I can’t get through to my HSE appointed GP. Upon ringing 1850-24-1850 I was told conflicting information to what is advertised and brushed off

Fever the past two day’s, aches and pains all over and severe dehydration + not excreting urine at all. I have narcolepsy so the excessive sleeping isn’t new but to have a stomach literally full of Provigil and still be passing out on the floor is new one.

I'd ring 112 in your situation so. Or any GP. You need medical attention.

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03