CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03

shocksy · 26-03-2020 03:25PM

cloudatlas wrote: »

not that there are many flights if at all.

I suggest you take a look at live departures on the dublin airport website and you will see that there are still many flights operating. Most notably the UK.

Also, closing off the north and south border would be impossible so making that point is irrelevant. But if it could have been done it would have been good because the UK will undo all our good work due to their ridiculous herd immunity approach in the early days.

Xertz · 26-03-2020 03:25PM

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

I don't get this part. Airlines should have huge reserves, especially the national airlines. Why should they go out of business? They aren't flying and so their overheads should be very small (in comparison to when in full operation) Basically the business sits dormant till this is over and then starts up again. I think there is too much over dramatization of the fall out in relation to businesses. 95% of businesses should be able to start again afterwards, its not like the world or countries populations are going to disappear.

Actually on that the more flexible ones like Ryanair may ultimately bounce back because they simply have no commitment to anything and will drop staff and suppliers without much difficulty. The larger, high cost airlines may ultimately end up needing to be renationalised.

Also there are very few "national airlines" anymore in Europe. They're almost all privatised.

I could certainly see a lot of state aid being pumped into them again and EU rules being drastically relaxed on allowing that to happen.

Ficheall · 26-03-2020 03:25PM

Not voicing opinion on whether the border with NI should be closed, but the "Well actually, NI's first case came from Dublin" argument doesn't really work, because had the border been closed, she wouldn't have been able to go via Dublin, so..

FVP3 · 26-03-2020 03:25PM

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

I don't get this part. Airlines should have huge reserves, especially the national airlines. Why should they go out of business? They aren't flying and so their overheads should be very small (in comparison to when in full operation) Basically the business sits dormant till this is over and then starts up again. I think there is too much over dramatization of the fall out in relation to businesses. 95% of businesses should be able to start again afterwards, its not like the world or countries populations are going to disappear.

Many have liquidity problems though, cash flow. If something is done there, it would be helpful.

Cork Boy 53 · 26-03-2020 03:26PM

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

I don't get this part. Airlines should have huge reserves, especially the national airlines. Why should they go out of business? They aren't flying and so their overheads should be very small (in comparison to when in full operation) Basically the business sits dormant till this is over and then starts up again. I think there is too much over dramatization of the fall out in relation to businesses. 95% of businesses should be able to start again afterwards, its not like the world or countries populations are going to disappear.

As far as we are concerned the ESRI predicted that the Irish economy`s GDP will fall by at least 7% in a best case scenario this year.

FVP3 · 26-03-2020 03:28PM

Snow Garden wrote: »

He has a match program rolled up in his hand and he is frothing and screaming profanities at the ref. Your average Tipp fan really.

I know little of nothing about the GAA except watching the odd munster and All Ireland final, but isn't that more like a Kilkenny fan?

Thelonious Monk · 26-03-2020 03:28PM

I would imagine a lot of the smaller airlines will go bust, and a lot of the routes to smaller regional places will no longer be viable. Aer Lingus, BA etc will all be fine as it will be in the governments interest to keep them going, at least the major routes anyway.
But we may be saying goodbye to flights to your holiday home in the arsehole of Bulgaria for a while.

Xertz · 26-03-2020 03:28PM

The riskiest businesses are often high volume, low margin ones. Anything that disrupts their volume of sales can destroy them in a very short time as they just become insolvent, particularly if they've a large fixed overhead to maintain - leases on premises etc.

I would suspect the "high street" brands will be wiped out. We could be coming back to a completely different retail landscape, with huge dominance of online. Effectively this could accelerate the trends that were happening anyway and cause a huge cull of physical retail.

Businesses like cafes, restaurants, bars, all of those kinds of things may ultimately just pick up quite rapidly once things are safe and money starts to flow again, but I could definitely see the big high street retailers disappearing and possibly never coming back in the same way again due to technological change and this having just pushed the whole thing forward by about 10 to 15 years.

I think you're going to find companies with strong online presence will also survive. So you could be saying goodbye to a lot of well known physical brands.

murpho999 · 26-03-2020 03:29PM

Thelonious Monk wrote: »

Had to cycle to work to get some things, just now. There are people all over the streets in Dublin city centre. Groups of junkie types drinking in the sun and loads of pedestrians. Doesnt feel like a lockdown at all.

That's because it's not a lockdown.

Dublin still very empty when compared to normal.

26-03-2020 03:31PM

If we are looking at attempting to delay the virus in order to stop ICU capacity being overloaded its quite possible there will be an on/off series of school/third level closures, not to mention continuance of social distancing etc out to the autumn of 2021. The trigger for renewed measures will be pressure on the ICU's. It seems more often than not these measures will be needed. The articles are US/GB projections. These measures might go on till a vaccine is (maybe) found, antiviral drugs can be found mitigate symptoms in the meantime etc.

For example, the Imperial College model projected that 510,000 people would die in two years in Great Britain without action. But the death toll would fall to 39,000 if the social distancing measures restarted every time the patient count in ICUs hit 400, or could shrink to 8,700 deaths if the trigger were 60 ICU patients.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/21/nation/when-will-coronavirus-pandemic-end-what-scientists-can-say-about-life-returning-normal/

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

stephenjmcd · 26-03-2020 03:31PM

shocksy wrote: »

I suggest you take a look at live departures on the dublin airport website and you will see that there are still many flights operating. Most notably the UK.

Also, closing off the north and south border would be impossible so making that point is irrelevant. But if it could have been done it would have been good because the UK will undo all our good work due to their ridiculous herd immunity approach in the early days.

The flights are near empty though, bus services to the airport basically stop today. That shows you where the demand is at and how many people are coming through the airport

Strazdas · 26-03-2020 03:32PM

Jurgen Klopp wrote: »

Lads what are the figures that are being used again.

What percentage of an entire population is expected to get infected?

Of the infected number is it 80% are expected with little to mild symptoms?

Then what is percentage of infected that needs hospital/ICU and deaths?

Was just trying to number crunch given out pop of 4,983,943

There's a new theory doing the rounds that 60% of people with Covid have no symptoms.

There's talk of a simple blood test that will show if you ever had Covid and are now immune. Maybe the whole population will have to get this at some point.

iwillyeah1234 · 26-03-2020 03:34PM

complete and utter confusion , even by the police, over here in England..

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241

walking your dog , MILES away from anyone else, is deemed "non essential" by this branch of the British police force.

is_that_so · 26-03-2020 03:34PM

Liz Canavan, Assistant Secretary for Social Policy at the Department of the Taoiseach on construction sites.

Ms Canavan said the construction industry had been given 48 hours to comply with social distancing guidelines. She said each building site had to have a designated person to ensure compliance with social distancing.

Xertz · 26-03-2020 03:35PM

Strazdas wrote: »

There's a new theory doing the rounds that 60% of people with Covid have no symptoms.

There's talk of a simple blood test that will show if you ever had Covid and are now immune. Maybe the whole population will have to get this at some point.

Rapid test kits for both active virus and antibodies are very likely to emerge quickly. They're already in existence just they need to upscale the manufacturing to get them out to people.

It should be possible to test someone for antibodies with a simple dot of blood on a test kit, much like some of those home diagnostic kits for doing your blood sugars. They already exist for things like antibodies for lots of other things.

token56 · 26-03-2020 03:35PM

Strazdas wrote: »

There's a new theory doing the rounds that 60% of people with Covid have no symptoms.

There's talk of a simple blood test that will show if you ever had Covid and are now immune. Maybe the whole population will have to get this at some point.

I think this is based on testing that has been carried out in Iceland who are essentially trying to test their entire population. But I think the number was closer to 50%.

iwillyeah1234 · 26-03-2020 03:36PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If we are looking at attempting to delay the virus in order to stop ICU capacity being overloaded its quite possible there will be an on/off series of school/third level closures, not to mention continuance of social distancing etc out to the autumn of 2021. The trigger for renewed measures will be pressure on the ICU's. It seems more often than not these measures will be needed. The articles are US/GB projections. These measures might go on till a vaccine is (maybe) found, antiviral drugs can be found mitigate symptoms in the meantime etc.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03/21/nation/when-will-coronavirus-pandemic-end-what-scientists-can-say-about-life-returning-normal/

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

In other words - let's completely ignore what the Taiwanese, South Koreans and Chinese have done.

Jesus h christ.. the UK is f**ked.

Xertz · 26-03-2020 03:37PM

token56 wrote: »

I think this is based on testing that has been carried out in Iceland who are essentially trying to test their entire population. But I think the number was closer to 50%.

Iceland's actually a really good place to trial testing like this btw because it's an island with a relatively small and genetically similar population. It's significantly smaller than say County Cork in terms of pop. So, you can work a lot of stuff out with just 1 hospital and lab facilities.

I was reading a paper yesterday that was also showing that they've seen very significant mutation of the virus into something like 40 distinct variations. Whether that means it will change in terms of how it interacts with people remains to be seen, but as an RNA virus effectively has no spell check system so it makes errors very rapidly as it copies itself.

One factor could be that as we socially distance / remove people from active circulation who are presenting symptoms, that strains that present few or no symptoms may become more dominant. That could be good if it means they just don't cause issues, or bad if it means hidden spread that subsequently blows up into dangerous symptoms later on.

You're looking at an organism that copies / reproduces generationally so quickly that it's evolving in real time. Virus life cycles are very, very short compared to more complex organisms so evolution is very rapid.

is_that_so · 26-03-2020 03:38PM

RTE School initiative from Monday 30th.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0320/1124339-rte-to-launch-school-on-tv-teaching-initiative/

jamesf85 · 26-03-2020 03:39PM

Red for Danger wrote: »

How relevant is panic buying discussion in the face of whats coming.
It more an online thing in that the discussion/memes jokes about the thing was bigger than the thing itself

In the face of whats coming? It's going to be an absolute disaster, but you're talking like 500,000 are going to die.

There's a very large portion of the population that won't even know they've been in contact with the virus. Of the 20-30% that do develop symptoms, 10-20% of those will be severe, with around 1-3% of those being critical.

We need to spread these out, what we don't need is people assuming we will be another Italy.

big syke · 26-03-2020 03:39PM

Cee-Jay-Cee wrote: »

I don't get this part. Airlines should have huge reserves, especially the national airlines. Why should they go out of business? They aren't flying and so their overheads should be very small (in comparison to when in full operation) Basically the business sits dormant till this is over and then starts up again. I think there is too much over dramatization of the fall out in relation to businesses. 95% of businesses should be able to start again afterwards, its not like the world or countries populations are going to disappear.

Some have used reserves for share buy backs as well as other costs that do not affect if they fly or not. Insurance costs, hedging fuel costs, have paid PDPs for aircraft deliverers and have commitments for more with penalties for backing out. Boeing and Airbus have already built the planes so they need this cash....

They also have high value contracts with suppliers again that cant be dropped.

Aircraft also need to go through periodic maintenance that cost huge money regardless of how often the places are used.

The business does not sit dormant. There will be huge casualties in this sector.

DOCARCH · 26-03-2020 03:39PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

complete and utter confusion , even by the police, over here in England.

Not sure why the confusion? UK message/instruction is stay at home!

is_that_so · 26-03-2020 03:40PM

Xertz wrote: »

Rapid test kits for both active virus and antibodies are very likely to emerge quickly. They're already in existence just they need to upscale the manufacturing to get them out to people.

It should be possible to test someone for antibodies with a simple dot of blood on a test kit, much like some of those home diagnostic kits for doing your blood sugars. They already exist for things like antibodies for lots of other things.

Not sure if any of them are ready or accurate enough yet. The quick tests the Spanish got are apparently 30% accurate.

FVP3 · 26-03-2020 03:41PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

complete and utter confusion , even by the police, over here in England..

https://twitter.com/DerbysPolice/status/1243168931503882241

walking your dog , MILES away from anyone else, is deemed "non essential" by this branch of the British police force.

They really need to worry about a lot more than that. The English police have dumbed down recently.

splinter65 · 26-03-2020 03:41PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

In other words - let's completely ignore what the Taiwanese, South Koreans and Chinese have done.

Jesus h christ.. the UK is f**ked.

You keep hoping and hoping for this for some reason....it’s getting a bit odd now

26-03-2020 03:42PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

In other words - let's completely ignore what the Taiwanese, South Koreans and Chinese have done.

Jesus h christ.. the UK is f**ked.

I'm not sure its accurate to state that we should 'ignore' what the Chinese etc. have done. They are still in a suppression phase. What happens if/when they relax measures, there's another surge resulting in pressure on their ICU capacity? They will have to reintroduce measures again.

Xertz · 26-03-2020 03:42PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not sure if any of them are ready or accurate enough yet. The quick tests the Spanish got are apparently 30% accurate.

They'll get more accurate as it develops though.

iwillyeah1234 · 26-03-2020 03:42PM

Xertz wrote: »

Iceland's actually a really good place to trial testing like this btw because it's an island with a relatively small and genetically similar population. It's significantly smaller than say County Cork in terms of pop. So, you can work a lot of stuff out with just 1 hospital and lab facilities.

I was reading a paper yesterday that was also showing that they've seen very significant mutation of the virus into something like 40 distinct variations. Whether that means it will change in terms of how it interacts with people remains to be seen, but as an RNA virus effectively has no spell check system so it makes errors very rapidly as it copies itself.

One factor could be that as we socially distance / remove people from active circulation who are presenting symptoms, that strains that present few or no symptoms may become more dominant. That could be good if it means they just don't cause issues, or bad if it means hidden spread.

You're looking at an organism that copies / reproduces generationally so quickly that it's evolving in real time. Virus life cycles are very, very short compared to more complex organisms so evolution is very rapid.

Corresponds with the stats
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Iceland has 2,160 cases per million. Quite high , relative to the rest of the world.

Blueshoe · 26-03-2020 03:42PM

Strazdas wrote: »

There's a new theory doing the rounds that 60% of people with Covid have no symptoms.

There's talk of a simple blood test that will show if you ever had Covid and are now immune. Maybe the whole population will have to get this at some point.

How can a test show if you had the virus but not anymore? It's either in your blood or its not.

Sounds like Facebook/WhatsApp (both owned by Facebook) scour talk.

Zuckerberg is some chancer. The IRS are suing him (Facebook)for 9 billion

is_that_so · 26-03-2020 03:43PM

splinter65 wrote: »

You keep hoping and hoping for this for some reason....it’s getting a bit odd now

I believe the poster lives there. Strikes me more as anxiety.

CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)*OP upd 28/03*

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CoVid19 Part XI - 2,615 in ROI (46 deaths) 410 in NI (21 deaths)(29/03)OP upd 28/03