CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP

25-03-2020 01:50PM

STB. wrote: »

Algorithm, my arse. Can you stop talking out of yours please. Pandemics don't follow algorithms. It can be totally random or in clusters.

They have abandoned a 40k waiting list that has accumulated over 2 weeks, because its too much. It took them 2 weeks to realise that. A containment phase lost, that will show up in great numbers over the coming weeks.

They have abandoned community testing at a time when 45% of our recorded cases are community transmissions.

WHY is the question ?

HSE Algorithm:
Suspect case:
A patient with acute respiratory illness (fever and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough, shortness of breath);
OR
A patient with any acute respiratory illness AND having been in contact with a confirmed or probable COVID-19 case in the last 14 days prior to symptom onset;
OR
A patient with severe acute respiratory illness (fever and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough, shortness of breath; AND requiring
hospitalization) AND in the absence of an alternative diagnosis that fully explains the clinical presentation

WHO:
Suspect case
A. A patient with acute respiratory illness (fever and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough, shortness of
breath), AND a history of travel to or residence in a location reporting community transmission of COVID-19 disease during the
14 days prior to symptom onset;
OR
B. A patient with any acute respiratory illness AND having been in contact with a confirmed or probable COVID-19 case (see
definition of contact) in the last 14 days prior to symptom onset;
OR
C. A patient with severe acute respiratory illness (fever and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough,
shortness of breath; AND requiring hospitalization) AND in the absence of an alternative diagnosis that fully explains the clinical
presentation.

I think we are doing more than asked, or possibly as we have community transmission we are matching WHO guidelines.

I dont know how people think it is possible to ramp to 40000 tests a week at the drop of a hat, but given our rate of detection is double that of the UK, we are doing ok with the testing, while continuing to increase capacity

10000maniacs · 25-03-2020 01:50PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Why are they appealing for it on social media ?

Must be pretty bad to stick your head above the parapet and appeal to the public to donate.

https://twitter.com/CossPeter/status/1242539010028908550?s=20

Are there any companies making these masks here in Ireland for export?
If so, the government should requisition them all for the HSE.

bennyl10 · 25-03-2020 01:50PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

On the other hand only testing people who have two or more symptoms might mean one infected untested person with mild symptoms passes it onto another who ends up dieing. Time will tell

Or maybe if you have even one symptom don’t go anywhere and socially isolate.

The test is a confirmation sure. If you’re sick socially isolate

FVP3 · 25-03-2020 01:51PM

STB. wrote: »

Do you think any of that rubbish washes with me ?

You are trolling this board, with whataboutery.

Nobody has answered any questions about abandoning those displaying symptoms during a pandemic, 11 days later.

The system has broken down, already and no new "algorithms" can hide that.

No it hasn't. Deaths are low.

You've been trolling this thread with your insane panic, much of which lacks an understanding of what is going on, and what Ireland is attempting to do.

Boggles · 25-03-2020 01:51PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The testing is the easy part as there are or will be 50 centres, it is the analysis that will be the challenge. They did say they think that they have cast too wide a net in terms of testing. 6% positive suggests they are probably right. 30 days of testing at 5000 a day would only yield 9000 cases.

You can't cast the net too wide if we are told we are doing what South Korea, which Leo told just yesterday we were.

You need buy in from the populous.

Telling 40,000 people who have been waiting up to 10 days for a test that they are no longer in the q is wildly acting the bollix. A lot of them would not have come out of their bedrooms.

They need to start being honest, admit they fúcked it and move on.

If confidence is lost, it won't work.

Xertz · 25-03-2020 01:51PM

This is worrying:

A doctor from St James’s Hospital in Dublin appealing for PPE from anyone who might have it in the food or pharma industry:

https://twitter.com/nealcummins/status/1242763529343709185?s=21

FVP3 · 25-03-2020 01:52PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

the chinese also have a similar app. shows cases right down to apartment level on a map.

I'd prefer to follow Korea than China.

iwillyeah1234 · 25-03-2020 01:53PM

On Digital contact tracing :

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/cellphone-tracking-could-help-stem-spread-coronavirus-privacy-price

"Protests greeted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rollout this week of a surveillance program that uses the country’s domestic security agency to track the locations of people potentially infected with the virus. South Korea has released detailed information on infected individuals—including their recent movements—viewable through multiple private apps that send alerts to users in their vicinity. “They’re essentially texting people, saying, ‘Hey, there’s been a 60-year-old woman who’s positive for COVID. Click this for more information about her path,’” says Anne Liu, a global health expert at Columbia University. She warns that the South Korean approach risks unmasking and stigmatizing infected people and the businesses they frequent.

But digital tracking is probably “identifying more contacts than you would with traditional methods,” Liu says. "

Strazdas · 25-03-2020 01:53PM

I am me123 wrote: »

Sorry, April 19th ...
So does this just mean that all businesses, schools, colleges, etc that closed on 12th March, will remain so until April 19th?

Yes, that's it : full restrictions in place until that date, meaning no school or non essential business can reopen before that day.

bilston · 25-03-2020 01:54PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I would say end of May would be a good bet. All the indications are that the virus has an 8-10 week cycle and then starts to lessen.

I think it's possible alright...I'm just wondering if the govt will err on the side of caution.

I guess9 weeks after a lockdown (call it what you want) and you may see restrictions reduced...

Three weeks for new cases to reduce (given incubation period)
Three weeks for deaths to reduce
Three weeks to make sure virus doesn't come back and pressure is relieved on health system.

Nine weeks in total (last week in May/first week June)

25-03-2020 01:55PM

Sono Topolino wrote: »

They’re only testing people with two symptoms and who are in close contact with a confirmed case, ignoring asymptomatic carriers! That’s rolling it back!

So you are suggesting we just test at random rather than identify suspect cases?

Quin_Dub · 25-03-2020 01:55PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is social distancing working, are we flatten the curve?

Too early to tell properly , but there was some encouraging info from Dr Holohan last night.

He said that 2 weeks ago when they were doing contact tracing , the average number of contacts per person was 20 , however in recent days the average number of contacts was 5.

That would suggest that social distancing is having an effect - but we probably won't see it in the numbers for a while yet.

iwillyeah1234 · 25-03-2020 01:55PM

FVP3 wrote: »

I'd prefer to follow Korea than China.

Korea definitely seem to have the balance right between being extreme authoritarian and being a liberal democracy. It's their policy of "extreme transparency" which does seem to have brought the public along over there.

nacho libre · 25-03-2020 01:55PM

Curious_Case wrote: »

Yogis ?

Hypnosis ?

Schrödinger's Work ?

Double-Slit Experiment ?

?

If you meant by better outcomes, people being better able to cope with the trauma of a serious illness like cancer, then of course there are benefits to being positive and being strong willed, but these traits won't cure you. However i assume that's not a claim you were making.

Musefan · 25-03-2020 01:56PM

Xertz wrote: »

This is worrying:

A doctor from St James’s Hospital in Dublin appealing for PPE from anyone who might have it in the food or pharma industry:

https://twitter.com/nealcummins/status/1242763529343709185?s=21

My understanding, from looking at comments, this refers to a request for industries that are not using PPE to donate it.

10000maniacs · 25-03-2020 01:57PM

Boggles wrote: »

You can't cast the net too wide if we are told we are doing what South Korea, which Leo told just yesterday we were.

You need buy in from the populous.

Telling 40,000 people who have been waiting up to 10 days for a test that they are no longer in the q is wildly acting the bollix. A lot of them would not have come out of their bedrooms.

They need to start being honest, admit they fúcked it and move on.

If confidence is lost, it won't work.

If they don't have the resources, they need to prioritize any resources they do have.
A militant lockdown would be another way of maximizing resources.

Loafing Oaf · 25-03-2020 01:57PM

Deleted User wrote: »

No. But then, Europe hasn't passed the point where they've gotten a handle on the cases popping up. Which is why enforcing the social distancing or limited locking down of the country makes sense.. to give the hospitals and governments the time to manage things better.

Okay but the problem arises if we're doing our level best with that and it's still not enough, and our ICUs end up being overwhelmed like those in Italy and Spain.

is_that_so · 25-03-2020 01:58PM

Boggles wrote: »

You can't cast the net too wide if we are told we are doing what South Korea, which Leo told just yesterday we were.

You need buy in from the populous.

Telling 40,000 people who have been waiting up to 10 days for a test that they are no longer in the q is wildly acting the bollix. A lot of them would not have come out of their bedrooms.

They need to start being honest, admit they fúcked it and move on.

If confidence is lost, it won't work.

This stuff all comes from the team running this. At the latest briefing they said this is from a public health perspective. That may be no solace at all to some on the original list but those people have that option to reengage with their GP. I don't think we can test that many people, certainly not if all they get is 6% positives or even lower.

Boggles · 25-03-2020 01:59PM

10000maniacs wrote: »

If they don't have the resources, they need to prioritize any resources they do have.

Yes, but you need to be honest about that, like they have told us from day one they would be.

They made the backlog go away by moving the goal posts.

That is going to píss off and scare a lot of people.

The noises I have been hearing the past few days along with that "stunt" does not sound good.

Antares35 · 25-03-2020 02:00PM

Spain's death toll has surpassed China's

They are saying that this "will be the worst week" and they "expect it to peak". Is there an implication then that they expect the numbers to start dropping after this week?

Boggles · 25-03-2020 02:02PM

is_that_so wrote: »

This stuff all comes from the team running this. At the latest briefing they said this is from a public health perspective. That may be no solace at all to some on the original list but those people have that option to reengage with their GP. I don't think we can test that many people, certainly not if all they get is 6% positives or even lower.

Leo said we were following the South Korea model yesterday?

All the signs point to them failing.

Doctors now on Twitter asking for PPE.

The last few days can not be spun into a positive, so please stop doing it.

We get it, your a paid up Fine Gael party member.

Sometimes you need to put that to one side or you won't be taken seriously.

bekker · 25-03-2020 02:03PM

What is the purpose of the testing programme, both original and as modified and modified?

If it is ,

to evaluate the extent of penetration of the virus then statistically valid, repeated randomised testing of the population the best answer.

to identify and rapidly treat those who are displaying symptoms of serious reaction then fast GP triaging, fast testing and fast processing.

to test the cohort who are statistically most vulnerable then selection by existing medical record is the best answer, but to test 400,000+?

to reassure the population then the present strategy seems to be effective, but meaningless as a strategy for any of the above.

This a repost from yesterday but when I came on today it appears the testing issue has resurfaced, interestingly nobody here seems to discern any objective for the testing other than the last one.

Testing health workers and in hospital patients is a separate issue and being handle by the new in-house hospital.

Fr_Dougal · 25-03-2020 02:03PM

Antares35 wrote: »

Spain's death toll has surpassed China's

They are saying that this "will be the worst week" and they "expect it to peak". Is there an implication then that they expect the numbers to start dropping after this week?

I don’t have any faith in China’s published death rate.

eagle eye · 25-03-2020 02:03PM

Strazdas wrote:

Yes, that's it : full restrictions in place until that date, meaning no school or non essential business can reopen before that day.

If we go full lockdown we can get there that quickly maybe. If we continue going as we are right now with people going to work using public transport then no chance.

Blaze420 · 25-03-2020 02:03PM

https://www.thejournal.ie/simon-harris-corona-challenge-5057119-Mar2020/

Anyone indulging in this disgusting practice needs their jaw broken at the least, ****ing scum. Couldn’t care less what age you are or if your filthy girlfriend is with you, do this around me and I’ll kill the both of ye where ye stand.

25-03-2020 02:04PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Okay but the problem arises if we're doing our level best with that and it's still not enough, and our ICUs end up being overwhelmed like those in Italy and Spain.

ok. Let me get this straight. the logic is... we shouldn't do more to limit the virus spread because it might not be enough?

You seriously don't see the flaw in that? I can't really believe that this needs to be spelled out.

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts · 25-03-2020 02:04PM

sirmanga wrote: »

Well yeah, I know it was the cancer that killed him. I just always wondered would he have died as quickly if he hadn't gone for that work medical. He was perfectly fine, a strapping big man, working in security we were. Awful stuff.
But it just made me think about this virus. Some people take bad news better than others. There is definitely a mental element to dealing with a physical illness.

I get what you are saying but just don’t subscribe. I’ve been dealing with cancer for five years and I can be an unbelievable moper and go through serious bouts of hopelessness. I have seen so many way more positive people go to their graves over the last five years. I just hate the thought that their mental strength is in any way questioned when I know that some of them put me to shame, attitude-wise.

Xertz · 25-03-2020 02:05PM

Rob A. Bank wrote: »

That is not true.. they declared it was a pandemic when it actually was one.

Declaring a pandemic too early would have caused some countries to stop tracing contacts and to give up on confronting the virus aggressively.

The reason they do not recommend travel restrictions is to make sure that trade continues and things like PPEs for the front line medical staff are available everywhere.

Musefan wrote: »

My understanding, from looking at comments, this refers to a request for industries that are not using PPE to donate it.

I’m still amazed at how generally poor the PPE is in all the hospitals I’m seeing around the world. It’s fairly clear we never had protocols in place for any kind of mass pandemic anywhere in the developed world. If we did there would have been a stock of proper biohazard suits for frontline staff. The type you would see in a virology or similar laboratory setting. They’re comfortable to wear, safe and so on.

We’re going to have to redesign all of that gear starting immediately. Hopefully it is being mass manufactured somewhere.

Also if we’ve any clothing industries left, could they help? It must be possible to supply them with patterns and appropriate raw materials to make disposable suits. Although, I don’t think we have many clothing factories other than probably relative low volume high end stuff.

facehugger99 · 25-03-2020 02:05PM

Boggles wrote: »

Leo said we were following the South Korea model yesterday?

All the signs point to them failing.

Doctors now on Twitter asking for PPE.

The last few days can not be spun into a positive, so please stop doing it.

We get it, your a paid up Fine Gael party member.

Sometimes you need to put that to one side or you won't be taken seriously.

Isn't it curious that a lad that bots all over the SF threads with his pro-Shinner warblings would have a problem with the Govt response to the Corona issue.

Loafing Oaf · 25-03-2020 02:07PM

Deleted User wrote: »

ok. Let me get this straight. the logic is... we shouldn't do more to limit the virus spread because it might not be enough?

You seriously don't see the flaw in that? I can't really believe that this needs to be spelled out.

I'm not questioning the current strategy, I don't have a better plan. I'm questioning your blithe assumption that it's going to turn things around within a short space of time.

CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP