CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP

iwillyeah1234 · 25-03-2020 02:43PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Meanwhile in Belgium hospital admissions have surged 50% in just 24 hours

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-live-news-india-lockdown-italy-cases-restrictions-uk-us-outbreak-australia-china-hubei-latest-updates?page=with:block-5e7b51928f08af215f6fae8c#liveblog-navigation

holy mother of god.. that Spanish chart.

25-03-2020 02:43PM

take everything wrote: »

That's sobering. No matter what happens, it seems ICUs will be overwhelmed or at max capacity in a week or two.

Edit: notwithstanding the point made below about the ICUs average stay being 2 weeks and subsequent recoveries/deaths, the first two look grim. And the third is pretty bad.

In Italy they have had to dr use which people to allocate respirators to, and which to allow to die naturally of this virus. If it is assessed that fibrosis has commenced in alveoli then nature is allowed take its course, with comfort nursing only. The same will happen here.

Kermit.de.frog · 25-03-2020 02:43PM

In Japan, Tokyo has recorded it's highest level of new cases yet with 41 new cases

Warning of the risk of an explosive rise in coronavirus infections in Japan’s capital, Tokyo’s governor on Wednesday asked residents to avoid non-essential outings through until April 12, Reuters reports.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2020/mar/25/coronavirus-live-news-india-lockdown-italy-cases-restrictions-uk-us-outbreak-australia-china-hubei-latest-updates?page=with:block-5e7b51928f08af215f6fae8c#liveblog-navigation

expectationlost · 25-03-2020 02:44PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The new algorithm.
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/algorithms/

I think a lot of people have already answered that question of why and it is based on the latest briefing.

anyone got links to previous algorithms

CitizenFloor · 25-03-2020 02:44PM

New Home wrote: »

Pft. McGyver just needed a paperclip and some duct tape.

It wasn't even a full funeral, just a blessing. They're not allowed to do any funerals.

Emotional roller coaster poster!!

STB. · 25-03-2020 02:44PM

Renee Kind Historian wrote: »

Do we all agree our labs are at 100% right now?

If we do, what is a better strategy:
1. Test a load of randomers
2. Test people who we know are more likely to carry the virus

Anyone?

Are you having a laugh.

LAB. Singular, the NVRL in UCD, from all know info. The hospital labs are looking after testing patients in the hospital and staff ONLY.

They couldn't cope with the 3000 per day that accumulated to 40k over 2 weeks that were displaying symptoms and have now been abandoned. And asked to sign up again if still displaying symptoms!

Lillyfae · 25-03-2020 02:44PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

get the Irish embassy in Seoul to hire all Irish English-language teachers ( who will more than likely probably all speak Korean to a good degree) , so that they can send regular reports to the embassy ( and then onto the government).

bit radical maybe.. might ruffle a few feathers in the civil service. but we are in extraordinary times.

You are joking, right? All these people possess is the ability to pay for a TEFL qualification. They most likely don't speak any other languages, much less Korean :pac:

caveat emptor · 25-03-2020 02:45PM

https://twitter.com/acpigroup/status/1242562372046290945?s=20

I am me123 · 25-03-2020 02:45PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Sunday, April 19th in fact

Sorry, April 19th ...
So does this just mean that all businesses, schools, colleges, etc that closed on 12th March, will remain so until April 19th?

sirmanga · 25-03-2020 02:45PM

Obvious Desperate Breakfasts wrote: »

No, the cancer killed him. A fast-moving cancer. It happens. A year isn't very long so that shows how aggressive it was. Most people have it in their body for years. The idea that people have control over things like that needs to die in a fire. Otherwise cancer patients will have to continue to field inane sentiments like "Be positive!" (Is that an order?) on top of everything else they're coping with.

Well yeah, I know it was the cancer that killed him. I just always wondered would he have died as quickly if he hadn't gone for that work medical. He was perfectly fine, a strapping big man, working in security we were. Awful stuff.
But it just made me think about this virus. Some people take bad news better than others. There is definitely a mental element to dealing with a physical illness.

Blueshoe · 25-03-2020 02:46PM

STB. wrote: »

Algorithm, my arse. Can you stop talking out of yours please. Pandemics don't follow algorithms. It can be totally random or in clusters.

They have abandoned a 40k waiting list that has accumulated over 2 weeks, because its too much. It took them 2 weeks to realise that. A containment phase lost, that will show up in great numbers over the coming weeks.

They have abandoned community testing at a time when 45% of our recorded cases are community transmissions.

WHY is the question ?

I think you could be correct. Is it a surprise that hse couldn't cope? Winter flu spike causes mayhem each year. There are 800k on appointment waiting lists already. People waiting literally years

FVP3 · 25-03-2020 02:47PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

On South Korea:
https://www.wired.co.uk/article/south-korea-coronavirus

The backbone of Korea’s success has been mass, indiscriminate testing, followed by rigorous contact tracing and the quarantine of anyone the carrier has come into contact with. As of March 19, the country has conducted more than 307,000 tests, the highest per capita in the world. The UK has conducted 64,600; The US even less that. “You have countries like the US right now, where there's a fairly strict criteria of who can be tested,” says Kee Park, a lecturer on global health at Harvard Medical School. “I know people personally who have symptoms that are highly suspicious, but they don't meet all the criteria and so they're not being tested.”

“[South Korea’s] extensive testing is a very valuable tool to both control the virus and understand and measure the effectiveness of the responses that are taking place,” says Michael Mina, assistant professor at the Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics at Harvard University. “It’s allowed individuals to take matters into their own hands and make social distancing decisions on their own, both to protect those around them and to protect themselves from those who are infected around them.”

To carry out testing at this scale requires extraordinary coordination. The Wall Street Journal reports that the country can test more than 20,000 people a day at 633 testing sites nationwide. A smartphone app provides GPS maps to track the infection’s spread. Medics pitch massive white tents on roadsides, where citizens receive free drive through testing, reducing the need to clean infected hazmat suits. Results are swift, too, coming by text within 24 hours.

Mass and random testing is the only way. It might be too early for us to do it though. And that app is a good idea.

I don't see why the technology can't go world wide.

iwillyeah1234 · 25-03-2020 02:47PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The new algorithm.
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/algorithms/

I think a lot of people have already answered that question of why and it is based on the latest briefing.

Those briefings appear to be ignoring asymptomatic carriers.

shesty · 25-03-2020 02:47PM

I am me123 wrote: »

Sorry, April 19th ...
So does this just mean that all businesses, schools, colleges, etc that closed on 12th March, will remain so until April 19th?

Yes.
And I imagine they may review that again closer to the date if needed.

JP Liz V1 · 25-03-2020 02:47PM

rossie1977 wrote: »

Only 4% of tests in Ireland have come back as positive https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0324/1124971-coronavirus-covid19-ireland/

Maybe the new testing methods will identify more people who have the virus

Is social distancing working, are we flatten the curve?

is_that_so · 25-03-2020 02:47PM

Boggles wrote: »

The South Korea model that Leo touted even yesterday would not be narrowing parameters, 94% would be tested.

It was aspirational to follow the model and from I can see the 4,500 is aspirational too, just like the 15,000 figure.

We are not following the South Korea because we can't.

We are following the new Irish model, the old one failed up to this point.

We have changed tactic because of that failure. This is not a news story that should be spun into something positive.

Honesty is key if you want buy in. The government have had a poor few days, they need to up it.

The testing is the easy part as there are or will be 50 centres, it is the analysis that will be the challenge. They did say they think that they have cast too wide a net in terms of testing. 6% positive suggests they are probably right. 30 days of testing at 5000 a day would only yield 9000 cases.

25-03-2020 02:48PM

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Okay well slowing the spread to anywhere near the point where it would be sage to start opening things up again like in some Asian countries

No. But then, Europe hasn't passed the point where they've gotten a handle on the cases popping up. Which is why enforcing the social distancing or limited locking down of the country makes sense.. to give the hospitals and governments the time to manage things better.

STB. · 25-03-2020 02:48PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The new algorithm.
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/algorithms/

I think a lot of people have already answered that question of why and it is based on the latest briefing.

Do you think any of that rubbish washes with me ?

You are trolling this board, with whataboutery.

Nobody has answered any questions about abandoning those displaying symptoms during a pandemic, 11 days later.

The system has broken down, already and no new "algorithms" can hide that.

is_that_so wrote: »

The testing is the easy part as there are or will be 50 centres, it is the analysis that will be the challenge.
They did say they think that they have cast too wide a net in terms of testing. 6% positive suggests they are probably right. 30 days of testing at 5000 a day would only yield 9000 cases.

The testing part should have been easy. We don't have the kits or the labs.

6% positives are first regime testing - were you in Italy. Unfortunately 45% of our affected people are now community transmissions and we are not testing them now on a community basis.

We may not have 30 days, before it escalates. Thats why we need to test as many showing symptoms as possible.

Its that simple.

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is social distancing working, are we flatten the curve?

We don't know as they havent been testing those coming forward with symptoms.

is_that_so · 25-03-2020 02:48PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

Is social distancing working, are we flatten the curve?

They should have some indication of that in the next week or two.

iwillyeah1234 · 25-03-2020 02:49PM

FVP3 wrote: »

Mass and random testing is the only way. It might be too early for us to do it though. And that app is a good idea.

I don't see why the technology can't go world wide.

the chinese also have a similar app. shows cases right down to apartment level on a map.

25-03-2020 02:50PM

STB. wrote: »

Algorithm, my arse. Can you stop talking out of yours please. Pandemics don't follow algorithms. It can be totally random or in clusters.

They have abandoned a 40k waiting list that has accumulated over 2 weeks, because its too much. It took them 2 weeks to realise that. A containment phase lost, that will show up in great numbers over the coming weeks.

They have abandoned community testing at a time when 45% of our recorded cases are community transmissions.

WHY is the question ?

HSE Algorithm:
Suspect case:
A patient with acute respiratory illness (fever and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough, shortness of breath);
OR
A patient with any acute respiratory illness AND having been in contact with a confirmed or probable COVID-19 case in the last 14 days prior to symptom onset;
OR
A patient with severe acute respiratory illness (fever and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough, shortness of breath; AND requiring
hospitalization) AND in the absence of an alternative diagnosis that fully explains the clinical presentation

WHO:
Suspect case
A. A patient with acute respiratory illness (fever and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough, shortness of
breath), AND a history of travel to or residence in a location reporting community transmission of COVID-19 disease during the
14 days prior to symptom onset;
OR
B. A patient with any acute respiratory illness AND having been in contact with a confirmed or probable COVID-19 case (see
definition of contact) in the last 14 days prior to symptom onset;
OR
C. A patient with severe acute respiratory illness (fever and at least one sign/symptom of respiratory disease, e.g., cough,
shortness of breath; AND requiring hospitalization) AND in the absence of an alternative diagnosis that fully explains the clinical
presentation.

I think we are doing more than asked, or possibly as we have community transmission we are matching WHO guidelines.

I dont know how people think it is possible to ramp to 40000 tests a week at the drop of a hat, but given our rate of detection is double that of the UK, we are doing ok with the testing, while continuing to increase capacity

10000maniacs · 25-03-2020 02:50PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Why are they appealing for it on social media ?

Must be pretty bad to stick your head above the parapet and appeal to the public to donate.

https://twitter.com/CossPeter/status/1242539010028908550?s=20

Are there any companies making these masks here in Ireland for export?
If so, the government should requisition them all for the HSE.

bennyl10 · 25-03-2020 02:50PM

Blueshoe wrote: »

On the other hand only testing people who have two or more symptoms might mean one infected untested person with mild symptoms passes it onto another who ends up dieing. Time will tell

Or maybe if you have even one symptom don’t go anywhere and socially isolate.

The test is a confirmation sure. If you’re sick socially isolate

FVP3 · 25-03-2020 02:51PM

STB. wrote: »

Do you think any of that rubbish washes with me ?

You are trolling this board, with whataboutery.

Nobody has answered any questions about abandoning those displaying symptoms during a pandemic, 11 days later.

The system has broken down, already and no new "algorithms" can hide that.

No it hasn't. Deaths are low.

You've been trolling this thread with your insane panic, much of which lacks an understanding of what is going on, and what Ireland is attempting to do.

Boggles · 25-03-2020 02:51PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The testing is the easy part as there are or will be 50 centres, it is the analysis that will be the challenge. They did say they think that they have cast too wide a net in terms of testing. 6% positive suggests they are probably right. 30 days of testing at 5000 a day would only yield 9000 cases.

You can't cast the net too wide if we are told we are doing what South Korea, which Leo told just yesterday we were.

You need buy in from the populous.

Telling 40,000 people who have been waiting up to 10 days for a test that they are no longer in the q is wildly acting the bollix. A lot of them would not have come out of their bedrooms.

They need to start being honest, admit they fúcked it and move on.

If confidence is lost, it won't work.

Xertz · 25-03-2020 02:51PM

This is worrying:

A doctor from St James’s Hospital in Dublin appealing for PPE from anyone who might have it in the food or pharma industry:

https://twitter.com/nealcummins/status/1242763529343709185?s=21

FVP3 · 25-03-2020 02:52PM

iwillyeah1234 wrote: »

the chinese also have a similar app. shows cases right down to apartment level on a map.

I'd prefer to follow Korea than China.

iwillyeah1234 · 25-03-2020 02:53PM

On Digital contact tracing :

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/cellphone-tracking-could-help-stem-spread-coronavirus-privacy-price

"Protests greeted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rollout this week of a surveillance program that uses the country’s domestic security agency to track the locations of people potentially infected with the virus. South Korea has released detailed information on infected individuals—including their recent movements—viewable through multiple private apps that send alerts to users in their vicinity. “They’re essentially texting people, saying, ‘Hey, there’s been a 60-year-old woman who’s positive for COVID. Click this for more information about her path,’” says Anne Liu, a global health expert at Columbia University. She warns that the South Korean approach risks unmasking and stigmatizing infected people and the businesses they frequent.

But digital tracking is probably “identifying more contacts than you would with traditional methods,” Liu says. "

Strazdas · 25-03-2020 02:53PM

I am me123 wrote: »

Sorry, April 19th ...
So does this just mean that all businesses, schools, colleges, etc that closed on 12th March, will remain so until April 19th?

Yes, that's it : full restrictions in place until that date, meaning no school or non essential business can reopen before that day.

bilston · 25-03-2020 02:54PM

Strazdas wrote: »

I would say end of May would be a good bet. All the indications are that the virus has an 8-10 week cycle and then starts to lessen.

I think it's possible alright...I'm just wondering if the govt will err on the side of caution.

I guess9 weeks after a lockdown (call it what you want) and you may see restrictions reduced...

Three weeks for new cases to reduce (given incubation period)
Three weeks for deaths to reduce
Three weeks to make sure virus doesn't come back and pressure is relieved on health system.

Nine weeks in total (last week in May/first week June)

CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP