CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP

saabsaab · 24-03-2020 09:51PM

Looking at this from a numbers view we probably have one in every 300 people with the virus now (most not tested or showing). This means that on average if you cross paths with 300 people in the day you are likely to contact one with the virus. More likely in Cities. Limit exposure by keeping away from people or where many people have recently been. Supermarkets must be avoided as much as possible and all care taken when you have to go.

Coyote · 24-03-2020 09:51PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That sheet assumes everyone in ICU will stay in ICU. That won't be the case

true it's not 100% right but the time in ICU is 14-20 days if they don't die in the first 3-4 days, over a 3-4 week gap it does not make much difference

rossie1977 · 24-03-2020 09:52PM

deisedevil wrote: »

Testing is still nowhere near what it needs to be for these figures of positive cases to be of any use.

The only real figures of any use are deaths and numbers in ICU at the minute. Is that not so?

ICU figures are most important right now.

If we reach overcapacity like Italy the % rise in infections is key figure

Beasty · 24-03-2020 09:52PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Still a good bit below 30%, granted lots of backlog with tests

It's based on not much more than 2,000 daily tests. The increase is limited by virtue of the number of test results they can process. It looks like, at present, around 10% of those being tested are positive. If they get it up to 4,500 tests a day I would guess we may well be seeing something like 450 daily increases. The other thing that may influence the figures is as they start prioritising medical staff, but I'm not sure which way, if any, that may change the reported numbers

martingriff · 24-03-2020 09:52PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Ordering in a takeaway does sound a bit mad to be fair. Food prepared by a stranger. I'd be hesitant even during normal times. I think the decision to leave the option available reflects the cooking standards of some in the country. Also, maybe some actually do depend on takeaways.

You know what if during this time people want a Chine or Indian then I say so be it

1huge1 · 24-03-2020 09:52PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I know this post will be washed away in the flow very quickly but I want to apologise for being hostile and aggressive in some of my posts over the last few days. I was very unpleasant and rude to posters who didn't deserve it and I'm sorry to each of them for that.
The constant stress does weigh on me a bit.
It's easy to lash out here. Maybe better to do it here than in real life.
Anyway, I'm glad this thread is here. It's a very frustrating time.

Can't say I've seen any of these posts, but this is a very anxious time for a lot of people so very understandable.

Perhaps, it may be best to take a break from the news, I don't mean that in a condescending way at all. But we all need to switch off at time, I know I do

cosanostra · 24-03-2020 09:53PM

So numbers could be an awful lot higher due to it not being detectable by the time tests are carried out not that it really matters that much but would give us a better understanding of where were at

alwald · 24-03-2020 09:53PM

The first case was detected 3 weeks ago and since then there are 7 dead and only 5 recovered. This is quite scary.
It's very hard to believe the Chinese figures since they don't follow the trend of other countries.

froog · 24-03-2020 09:53PM

briany wrote: »

If we keep up the testing and don't have 50,000 confirmed cases, and over 6,000 deaths in a month's time, you'd have to say we're doing a little better than Italy.

we have a 13th the population of italy so you have to compare figures per capita if you are comparing countries.

Valhallapt · 24-03-2020 09:53PM

rossie1977 wrote: »

ICU figures are most important right now.

If we reach overcapacity like Italy the % rise in infections is key figure

Yes this is the key, at the start Italy had people on ventilators for two weeks, in reality they were never going to make it after day two

Professor Moriarty · 24-03-2020 09:53PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Strange feeling, but only one death feels like a good result

So, I still can't understand this. Or maybe I can.

Britain 66 million.
Ireland 5 million
66/5= 13

Britain coronavirus deaths: 424
Ireland coronavirus deaths: 7
424/7= 60

Pro rata, Ireland should have 37 deaths.

What are we doing right or what are they doing wrong? Or what have they done wrong more likely.

youreadthat · 24-03-2020 09:54PM

Strumms wrote: »

I wonder if it is in fact a communist conspiracy from China. They looked at Boris and Trump holding the top positions and just thought....”hey, never in the history of the planet will there be two bigger fûckwits and imbeciles steering the ships of our enemies. Let’s infect them.

Why are people who would get outwitted by a dinner lady thinking they have superior intellect to Boris? Madness.

Stone Deaf 4evr · 24-03-2020 09:54PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

Only it’s the figure we were given by our government in terms of projections

Projections we are currently way below

Thankfully.

24-03-2020 09:54PM

Are the numbers from those who had the test 5 days ago and diagnosed today as it is taking that long for the tests to come back i.e today's numbers are from the 19th?

Valhallapt · 24-03-2020 09:55PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So, I still can't understand this. Or maybe I can.

Britain 66 million.
Ireland 5 million
66/5= 13

Britain coronavirus deaths: 424
Ireland coronavirus deaths: 7
424/7= 60

Pro rata, Ireland should have 37 deaths.

What are we doing right or what are they doing wrong? Or what have they done wrong more likely.

We pulled the shutters down a week earlier

martingriff · 24-03-2020 09:55PM

walshb wrote: »

Anyone eating ouha those holes needs a good dose a Covid to bring em back down to earth..

They be having a dose alright!!!

hotmail.com · 24-03-2020 09:55PM

cloudatlas wrote: »

The U.K. lockdown is stricter than the Irish Lockdown.

U.k says you shouldn't see family outside those who you live with. Irish government says you can as long as its a meeting with a group of no more than 4 people.

U.K. has asked churches to close, Leo says you can still go to places of worship.

U.k. says you will be fined if you don't stay at home and go out for non essential travel. Ireland doesn't mention enforcement.

Neither are lockdowns.

irishlad. · 24-03-2020 09:56PM

20,000 people a day seeking a test over the past 10 days according to Dr. Tony.

Thats a huge number!

expectationlost · 24-03-2020 09:56PM

question at briefing suggesting that symptoms required for test is changed from fever or cough to fever_and_cough https://www.pscp.tv/rtenews/1vAxRBXVEoXxl

holohon admits that they had the symptoms for a test call too wide and was wider then the WHO asked for

Fever and at least one sign of respiratory problems, eg cough, shortness of breath https://twitter.com/ciananbrennan/status/1242556401924427779

stephenjmcd · 24-03-2020 09:56PM

The only thing that I'd be looking for them to release now as part of the update is recovered numbers.

I've not seen them anywhere. Would be interesting to know what that number is

An Ciarraioch · 24-03-2020 09:57PM

Digital dashboard launched with the daily county figures, age profiles, etc:

http://geohive.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/a192b58ba6904c1494f651706c223520

blackcard · 24-03-2020 09:57PM

Naggdefy wrote: »

18% increase.

It's big enough. Just because we're well below the 30% doesn't mean a whole lot. That was an overestimate. But we're still doubling every 5days or so and 34 in ICU.

It probably means that we carried out the same amount of tests as yesterday. If we had done more testing, we would have got more positive results. The fact that there was only one death (RIP) is a hopeful sign

blackcard · 24-03-2020 09:57PM

Naggdefy wrote: »

18% increase.

It's big enough. Just because we're well below the 30% doesn't mean a whole lot. That was an overestimate. But we're still doubling every 5days or so and 34 in ICU.

It probably means that we carried out the same amount of tests as yesterday. If we had done more testing, we would have got more positive results. The fact that there was only one death (RIP) is a hopeful sign

Deco99 · 24-03-2020 09:57PM

irishlad. wrote: »

20,000 people a day seeking a test over the past 10 days according to Dr. Tony.

Thats a huge number!

And he said majority of them don't have it so they are changing case definition

blackcard · 24-03-2020 09:57PM

Naggdefy wrote: »

18% increase.

It's big enough. Just because we're well below the 30% doesn't mean a whole lot. That was an overestimate. But we're still doubling every 5days or so and 34 in ICU.

It probably means that we carried out the same amount of tests as yesterday. If we had done more testing, we would have got more positive results. The fact that there was only one death (RIP) is a hopeful sign

caveat emptor · 24-03-2020 09:57PM

saabsaab wrote: »

Looking at this from a numbers view we probably have one in every 300 people with the virus now (most not tested or showing). This means that on average if you cross paths with 300 people in the day you are likely to contact one with the virus. More likely in Cities. Limit exposure by keeping away from people or where many people have recently been. Supermarkets must be avoided as much as possible and all care taken when you have to go.

Unfortunately cases manifest in clusters. It is not a uniform distribution. Most of the cases could be in one area and you rock up thinking you've got a 1 in 300 chance of contracting it. Epidemics don't work like that.

The probability is varies massively. There's a reason they say assume everyone has it.

martingriff · 24-03-2020 09:57PM

Deleted User wrote: »

And yet in a new poll Trump has just achieved the highest approval rating of his term.
People are strange.

Is that not all relative what was his previous best

24-03-2020 09:57PM

Beasty wrote: »

It's based on not much more than 2,000 daily tests. The increase is limited by virtue of the number of test results they can process. It looks like, at present, around 10% of those being tested are positive. If they get it up to 4,500 tests a day I would guess we may well be seeing something like 450 daily increases. The other thing that may influence the figures is as they start prioritising medical staff, but I'm not sure which way, if any, that may change the reported numbers

Yeah I’d assume there are many more that actually have it based on the backlog.

That might actually make our death rate extremely good though?

Coyote · 24-03-2020 09:57PM

again the number are just a bit slower at dropping
they are not meant to be 100% correct they are meant to show people what the growth rate could be in a month

Phoebas · 24-03-2020 09:57PM

Beasty wrote: »

It's based on not much more than 2,000 daily tests.

The really important numbers right now are the number of deaths, the number in ICU and the number requiring hospitalisation.

I think we can be confident the the number of deaths and the number in ICU are accurate enough regardless of the test numbers.

CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP