CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP

Valhallapt · 24-03-2020 08:47PM

Strange feeling, but only one death feels like a good result

deisedevil · 24-03-2020 08:47PM

Testing is still nowhere near what it needs to be for these figures of positive cases to be of any use.

The only real figures of any use are deaths and numbers in ICU at the minute. Is that not so?

caveat emptor · 24-03-2020 08:48PM

Naked Lepper wrote: »

anyone. got the table with 30% projected increase v actual?

Anyone got the table for the 30% vs actual with the backlog of 20 days for tests to be concluded and included?

No didn't think so.

autumnbelle · 24-03-2020 08:48PM

CB19Kevo wrote: »

Not good, Wont be long before these come under pressure. But could be far worse at this stage, every day that it can be kept pushed back the better..

Yeah 200 free beds up to 2 days ago what’s it at now

the new cases numbers really mean nothing that’s 10% of the tests the labs are able to do coming up positive. Numbers won’t increase until capacity increases. Please god the measurements do show effect

cloudatlas · 24-03-2020 08:49PM

marno21 wrote: »

They had the pubs open 3 nights before this “lockdown”. Massive backtracking by them.

well it's locked down now. The police has even been given special powers to restrict movement. Everybody got a text message an hour ago from the government to tell everyone to stay at home and a link to the gov.uk website. No softly softly, go to the church, see your family and collect a take away stuff at any rate.

Stone Deaf 4evr · 24-03-2020 08:49PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

Only it’s the figure we were given by our government in terms of projections

Projections we are currently way below

Thankfully.

MrMusician18 · 24-03-2020 08:49PM

Coyote wrote: »

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rUGncHqU0uMRbfw181eH4FahteTFuXjFU8WUFjKZMUQ/edit?usp=sharing
it's about 18% here is the number past the end of the month with dropping numbers

That sheet assumes everyone in ICU will stay in ICU. That won't be the case

RugbyLad11 · 24-03-2020 08:50PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

Only it’s the figure we were given by our government in terms of projections

Projections we are currently way below

That was worst case projection

24-03-2020 08:50PM

I know this post will be washed away in the flow very quickly but I want to apologise for being hostile and aggressive in some of my posts over the last few days. I was very unpleasant and rude to posters who didn't deserve it and I'm sorry to each of them for that.
The constant stress does weigh on me a bit.
It's easy to lash out here. Maybe better to do it here than in real life.
Anyway, I'm glad this thread is here. It's a very frustrating time.

autumnbelle · 24-03-2020 08:50PM

deisedevil wrote: »

Testing is still nowhere near what it needs to be for these figures of positive cases to be of any use.

The only real figures of any use are deaths and numbers in ICU at the minute. Is that not so?

Completely agree

Naggdefy · 24-03-2020 08:50PM

It's roughly the same percentage of increase in numbers as all the European countries. Nothing to be getting carried away with. Doubling every 5 days approx.

threeball · 24-03-2020 08:51PM

autumnbelle wrote: »

Yeah 200 free beds up to 2 days ago what’s it at now the new cases numbers really mean nothing that’s 10% of the tests the labs are able to do coming up positive. Numbers won’t increase until capacity increases. Please god the measurements do show effect

Serious capacity increase with the private hospitals coming on board today.

Bigboldworld · 24-03-2020 08:51PM

Bigboldworld wrote: »

Was there any update on the ages of the two people who passed yesterday with no underlying conditions?

Is it not very odd that no details regarding age of people who passed yesterday have been released?

briany · 24-03-2020 08:51PM

froog wrote: »

it was an absolute worst case scenario figure (if we continued business as usual) given to try and calm people in the days ahead. the danger is people get complacent thinking we are doing great. we are doing no better than most countries. maybe not even italy.

If we keep up the testing and don't have 50,000 confirmed cases, and over 6,000 deaths in a month's time, you'd have to say we're doing a little better than Italy.

Vicxas · 24-03-2020 08:51PM

So we're still on course for around 11k peak infected.

saabsaab · 24-03-2020 08:51PM

Looking at this from a numbers view we probably have one in every 300 people with the virus now (most not tested or showing). This means that on average if you cross paths with 300 people in the day you are likely to contact one with the virus. More likely in Cities. Limit exposure by keeping away from people or where many people have recently been. Supermarkets must be avoided as much as possible and all care taken when you have to go.

Coyote · 24-03-2020 08:51PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

That sheet assumes everyone in ICU will stay in ICU. That won't be the case

true it's not 100% right but the time in ICU is 14-20 days if they don't die in the first 3-4 days, over a 3-4 week gap it does not make much difference

rossie1977 · 24-03-2020 08:52PM

deisedevil wrote: »

Testing is still nowhere near what it needs to be for these figures of positive cases to be of any use.

The only real figures of any use are deaths and numbers in ICU at the minute. Is that not so?

ICU figures are most important right now.

If we reach overcapacity like Italy the % rise in infections is key figure

Beasty · 24-03-2020 08:52PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Still a good bit below 30%, granted lots of backlog with tests

It's based on not much more than 2,000 daily tests. The increase is limited by virtue of the number of test results they can process. It looks like, at present, around 10% of those being tested are positive. If they get it up to 4,500 tests a day I would guess we may well be seeing something like 450 daily increases. The other thing that may influence the figures is as they start prioritising medical staff, but I'm not sure which way, if any, that may change the reported numbers

martingriff · 24-03-2020 08:52PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Ordering in a takeaway does sound a bit mad to be fair. Food prepared by a stranger. I'd be hesitant even during normal times. I think the decision to leave the option available reflects the cooking standards of some in the country. Also, maybe some actually do depend on takeaways.

You know what if during this time people want a Chine or Indian then I say so be it

1huge1 · 24-03-2020 08:52PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I know this post will be washed away in the flow very quickly but I want to apologise for being hostile and aggressive in some of my posts over the last few days. I was very unpleasant and rude to posters who didn't deserve it and I'm sorry to each of them for that.
The constant stress does weigh on me a bit.
It's easy to lash out here. Maybe better to do it here than in real life.
Anyway, I'm glad this thread is here. It's a very frustrating time.

Can't say I've seen any of these posts, but this is a very anxious time for a lot of people so very understandable.

Perhaps, it may be best to take a break from the news, I don't mean that in a condescending way at all. But we all need to switch off at time, I know I do

cosanostra · 24-03-2020 08:53PM

So numbers could be an awful lot higher due to it not being detectable by the time tests are carried out not that it really matters that much but would give us a better understanding of where were at

alwald · 24-03-2020 08:53PM

The first case was detected 3 weeks ago and since then there are 7 dead and only 5 recovered. This is quite scary.
It's very hard to believe the Chinese figures since they don't follow the trend of other countries.

froog · 24-03-2020 08:53PM

briany wrote: »

If we keep up the testing and don't have 50,000 confirmed cases, and over 6,000 deaths in a month's time, you'd have to say we're doing a little better than Italy.

we have a 13th the population of italy so you have to compare figures per capita if you are comparing countries.

Valhallapt · 24-03-2020 08:53PM

rossie1977 wrote: »

ICU figures are most important right now.

If we reach overcapacity like Italy the % rise in infections is key figure

Yes this is the key, at the start Italy had people on ventilators for two weeks, in reality they were never going to make it after day two

Professor Moriarty · 24-03-2020 08:53PM

Valhallapt wrote: »

Strange feeling, but only one death feels like a good result

So, I still can't understand this. Or maybe I can.

Britain 66 million.
Ireland 5 million
66/5= 13

Britain coronavirus deaths: 424
Ireland coronavirus deaths: 7
424/7= 60

Pro rata, Ireland should have 37 deaths.

What are we doing right or what are they doing wrong? Or what have they done wrong more likely.

youreadthat · 24-03-2020 08:54PM

Strumms wrote: »

I wonder if it is in fact a communist conspiracy from China. They looked at Boris and Trump holding the top positions and just thought....”hey, never in the history of the planet will there be two bigger fûckwits and imbeciles steering the ships of our enemies. Let’s infect them.

Why are people who would get outwitted by a dinner lady thinking they have superior intellect to Boris? Madness.

Stone Deaf 4evr · 24-03-2020 08:54PM

bennyl10 wrote: »

Only it’s the figure we were given by our government in terms of projections

Projections we are currently way below

Thankfully.

24-03-2020 08:54PM

Are the numbers from those who had the test 5 days ago and diagnosed today as it is taking that long for the tests to come back i.e today's numbers are from the 19th?

Valhallapt · 24-03-2020 08:55PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So, I still can't understand this. Or maybe I can.

Britain 66 million.
Ireland 5 million
66/5= 13

Britain coronavirus deaths: 424
Ireland coronavirus deaths: 7
424/7= 60

Pro rata, Ireland should have 37 deaths.

What are we doing right or what are they doing wrong? Or what have they done wrong more likely.

We pulled the shutters down a week earlier

CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP