Property Market 2020

handlemaster · 24-03-2020 12:59PM

combat14 wrote: »

House prices in Ireland could fall by as much as 20pc if the current economic upheaval caused by the spread of the coronavirus continues.

This is according to a report from Davy Stockbrokers, which suggests the financial markets have priced in a decline of 15-20pc in the value of homes.

Meanwhile, land values for house building purposes could fall by up to 50pc.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/house-prices-could-fall-by-up-to-20pc-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-report-39071128.html

Stab in the dark. I would think when the confidence goes from the market that could very easy be the case

cnocbui · 24-03-2020 01:01PM

voluntary wrote: »

The cost of construction is rapidly falling. Check the raw material prices, they're falling as well as fuel. This will soon translate to cheaper building materials. High unemployment releases a lot of man power into the labour market, labour cost is going down. The speculative land prices is going down too, similarly to other assets, investors run away to cash (US Dollars).

Where have you seen the cost of raw building materials falling? Give examples.

So laid-off tour guides, hairdressers and shop assistants are going to soon be laying concrete foundations, blocks, doing plastering, installing plumbing, turning their hand to carpentry and constructing roof frames and wiring up houses? And they are going to do this for substantially less than exiting tradesmen and women are paid?

If I were a tradesman, I wouldn't be taking a pay cut and taking on apprentices, I'd be emigrating to where the weather is better and the pay higher. Apprenticeships usually require years of industry experience

I don't think land speculators are going to be flooding the market. They often sit on their stock for many years.

And all of this would only be possible if the demand, was there in the first place.

I admire you optimism.

And let's not forget that half the cost of housing seems to be government costs. I doubt government bodies are going to be too willing to forego such lucrative revenue.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 01:03PM

fliball123 wrote: »

London will be fine after brexit really how do you know? They are now going through a double whammy of Brexit and Corona sounds like a bad menu for a party but London will be suffering a lot longer than any other capital in the EU.

Your two links are from last year. Also with the strategy of a lot more people working from home as has been seen through this epidemic has given businesses a new trajectory for doing business. People may no longer have to physically be in a location as in I can do business from here in London and vice versa. I can see a lot of companies going for low cost of living based countries/cities and keeping staff costs low and allowing the telecommute to the job in both London and Dublin and no one knows how this will impact globally going forward. So this blanket statement London will be ok is nonsense

EU will probably have to bailout Italy,Greece(again) ,Portugal etc all have massive unsustainable public debt.

Where are they going to get the money?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/italys-banks-will-struggle-under-the-coronavirus-outbreak-warns-fitch-51584112889

The UK big advantage is it has its own currency.

SozBbz · 24-03-2020 01:13PM

landofthetree wrote: »

EU will probably have to bailout Italy,Greece(again) ,Portugal etc all have massive unsustainable public debt.

Where are they going to get the money?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/italys-banks-will-struggle-under-the-coronavirus-outbreak-warns-fitch-51584112889

The UK big advantage is it has its own currency.

The ECB is going to print it.

This is not the same as 2008. There is no moral hazard here to stepping in and helping out all countries straight away. Whats more, all countries will need help, not just the usual suspects.

fliball123 · 24-03-2020 01:19PM

landofthetree wrote: »

EU will probably have to bailout Italy,Greece(again) ,Portugal etc all have massive unsustainable public debt.

Where are they going to get the money?

Every where is going to be hit and hit hard. How much did boris just promise for Corona, England have a lot more workers and will have more on the unemployment line than we will.

They are also £1,821.3 billion in debt which will fly up quicker than Ireland and if their debt gets unsustainable they have not got the EU to help them out.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/march2019

Irelands is 227 Billion (that in Dollars)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/270408/national-debt-of-ireland/

Now ask 4 questions
1: Who will have more people to worry about and have to financially look after their citizens = UK
2: Who will have more unemployment = UK
3: Who has the EU to fall back on if the sh1t hits the fan = Ireland
4: Who has better transport system = UK (but who cares a large % of jobs can be done from anywhere)

http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

If I had a business/multinational and had a choice of where to go (if you had to go looking at question 4) I know where I would be going

voluntary · 24-03-2020 01:21PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Where have you seen the cost of raw building materials falling? Give examples.

Cooking coal used for steel production, fell from over 230 usd to 140 usd
Brent Oil, fell from 60+ USD to ~20 USD
Steel etc

you could also look at broad commodity indexes, like this one:

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BCOMTR:IND

Fell from ~170 to 134 today

The Belly · 24-03-2020 01:21PM

landofthetree wrote: »

EU will probably have to bailout Italy,Greece(again) ,Portugal etc all have massive unsustainable public debt.

Where are they going to get the money?

https://www.barrons.com/articles/italys-banks-will-struggle-under-the-coronavirus-outbreak-warns-fitch-51584112889

The UK big advantage is it has its own currency.

Germany is not going to stand in the way of the ECB providing a blank cheque to bail out the EU members.

If they don't provide the funds member states will leave the Euro. Italy first then Spain and so on.

As bad as thing are and could get its a perfect time for us to refinance and borrow what we need to solve the housing crisis.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 01:22PM

fliball123 wrote: »

Every where is going to be hit and hit hard. How much did boris just promise for Corona, England have a lot more workers and will have more on the unemployment line than we will.

They are also £1,821.3 billion in debt which will fly up quicker than Ireland and if their debt gets unsustainable they have not got the EU to help them out.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicspending/bulletins/ukgovernmentdebtanddeficitforeurostatmaast/march2019

Irelands is 227 Billion (that in Dollars)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/270408/national-debt-of-ireland/

Now ask 4 questions
1: Who will have more people to worry about and have to financially look after their citizens = UK
2: Who will have more unemployment = UK
3: Who has the EU to fall back on if the sh1t hits the fan = Ireland
4: Who has better transport system = UK (but who cares a large % of jobs can be done from anywhere)

http://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

If I had a business/multinational and had a choice of where to go (if you had to go looking at question 4) I know where I would be going

All wishful thinking.

Every recession we ever had has seen people move to the UK because our public sector is over paid. Same old story. This time will be no different.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/irelands-national-debt-highest-per-head-in-europe-and-could-soar-in-no-deal-brexit-central-bank-warns-38525173.html

We have the highest debt per capita in Europe. Only going to get worse when people start to leave.

randoplh134 · 24-03-2020 01:22PM

garhjw wrote: »

More whackos crawling out from under their rocks. Some serious depressing opinions gleefully shared in such an assured manner, which is kind of sick considering people are getting very sick and dying. Think about the human cost of all this.

Realists, it's head in the sand stuff to think it's all going to be economically rosy in the short term.

Assetbacked · 24-03-2020 01:26PM

GreeBo wrote: »

That doesnt make it over valued.
Why should a first time buyer have to live in Dublin?

The equivalent statement is that prices in Ballsbridge are overpriced because a single, first time buyer needs an income of €300K.
People need to accept that you cant always live where you want, no one can.

The jobs are in Dublin, that's why people should live there. As such, your statement is ludicrous. Linking living in Dublin to living in Ballsbridge as well to make a point is using hyperbole. KBC have also reported on the affordability issue, so you are swimming against the tide.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/first-time-buyers-need-incomes-of-100-000-to-buy-new-homes-in-dublin-1.4190725?mode=amp

Anyway, bar the covid19 crisis, a natural correction in house prices over the coming decade is what has been predicted. Not a crash, just a correction as against salaries as a result of the borrowing limits restraining continued increases and supply finally starting to pick up which had been lacking for a decade.

Roberto_gas · 24-03-2020 01:27PM

I have been shocked at the rate the job losses happened in Ireland within two weeks....how many 250-300 K ? That's absolutely shocking and tells a lot of things about the Irish economy as a whole. We are not even half way through the pain this recession is going to inflict on us

Also some behavioral patterns i have observed

1) People don't care about house prices when they are buying. Getting a home to stay is important even if you are paying lot more for it.
2) During downturns the basic mentality is to get a house before you lose your job and mortgage approval.
3) People can live frugally only until they can have the deposit secured, not on an ongoing basis.
4) There is mass emigration when a downturn arrives but people still want to get locked into buying a property here.

All the above points along with the way jobs were lost in couple of weeks make me wonder how informed are the decisions some of the people here make ?

Again everyone's situation is different but the way economics work around the globe and here is totally different !

fliball123 · 24-03-2020 01:27PM

landofthetree wrote: »

All wishful thinking.

Every recession we ever had has seen people move to the UK because our public sector is over paid. Same old story. This time will be no different.

https://www.independent.ie/business/brexit/irelands-national-debt-highest-per-head-in-europe-and-could-soar-in-no-deal-brexit-central-bank-warns-38525173.html

We have the highest debt per capita in Europe. Only going to get worse when people start to leave.

One thing you can be certain of is that this is not like any other recession as its a pandemic big big difference

randoplh134 · 24-03-2020 01:29PM

awec wrote: »

For some anecdotes, in the aftermath of the US congress failing to agree on a stimulus package my own stock fell ~1% today. This is a lot less than it has fallen in the past few weeks.

I am down ~27% from the peak this year (mid Feb).

But it's still ~15% higher than what it was this time last year.

That's because it's only the beginning stages of both the virus and the lagging economic impact.

The Dow has already reversed all it's gains since the 2016 election. I personally expect it to drop below 15k and even lower.

Once the realize the government cannot stop the economic bleeding things will accelerate.

Graham · 24-03-2020 01:29PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Anyway, bar the covid19 crisis, a natural correction in house prices over the coming decade is what has been predicted.

On a daily basis since forever.

As property prices generally fluctuate, it is likely to be correct at some point.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 01:30PM

combat14 wrote: »

House prices in Ireland could fall by as much as 20pc if the current economic upheaval caused by the spread of the coronavirus continues.

This is according to a report from Davy Stockbrokers, which suggests the financial markets have priced in a decline of 15-20pc in the value of homes.

Meanwhile, land values for house building purposes could fall by up to 50pc.

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/house-prices-could-fall-by-up-to-20pc-amid-coronavirus-uncertainty-report-39071128.html

Investors and markets love certainly.

Then dont know when this crisis will end so 20% could become a lot more.

Assetbacked · 24-03-2020 01:33PM

Graham wrote: »

By the same logic, BMWs are due a massive pricing correction any minute now.

Wow. What a bizarre comparison. Can you elaborate how it is relevant as it seems idiotic to be honest and I need to see how basic I will need to make my explanation to you as to how you are wrong.

randoplh134 · 24-03-2020 01:35PM

Augeo wrote: »

........... I bought my first property in 2005, I very much gave a sh1t what happened to property prices over the following decade.

So much this, the people advocating to blindly purchase a property now that is vastly over valued and catch a falling knife are either away with the fairies or have been burned before and try to find away to rationalize their stupid decision.

Assetbacked · 24-03-2020 01:36PM

Graham wrote: »

On a daily basis since forever.

As property prices generally fluctuate, it is likely to be correct at some point.

It's not an exact science, it is about balance and a range of options being available.

Graham · 24-03-2020 01:37PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Wow. What a bizarre comparison. Can you elaborate how it is relevant as it seems idiotic to be honest and I need to see how basic I will need to make my explanation to you as to how you are wrong.

But that's your argument. Prices MUST drop because they are unaffordable to some people.

SozBbz · 24-03-2020 01:40PM

Roberto_gas wrote: »

I have been shocked at the rate the job losses happened in Ireland within two weeks....how many 250-300 K ? That's absolutely shocking and tells a lot of things about the Irish economy as a whole. We are not even half way through the pain this recession is going to inflict on us

Yes the numbers around the hospitality industry are shocking but the majority of those layoffs will be temporary.

The pubs etc will come back as soon as its safe to do so.

People are enormously resilient and inventive when they have to be. Yes, things probably won't come back exactly as they were but they will adapt and rebuild.

I can already see some small businesses that were at first glance set to be wiped out reinvent themselves and creating new partnerships - for example Forest Avenue restaurant has stayed open as grocery shop. They've got some of the suppliers (seafood, fruit and veg) set up with stalls and they're selling versions of their menu (sauces, pastas etc) to heat up at home and sourdough starter with online tutorials on how to make it yourself. Bread41 on Pearse st is another similar idea. Blackrock Market are offering delivery to support its vendors with their takeaway options. I'm sure there are countless more besides. This is preserving jobs and maintaining livelihoods. I've every confidence in people like this making a success of these businesses again once Covid 19 is just an unpleasant memory.

Our economy is not going to just stay like this. This is not the new normal.

Assetbacked · 24-03-2020 01:41PM

The first four pages of this thread are a good reminder of the state of the market at the turn of the year, I would suggest people re-read them.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 01:41PM

Graham wrote: »

But that's your argument. Prices MUST drop because they are unaffordable to some people.

But people have alternatives to BMWs. Loads of cheaper brands.

There isnt much alternatives in the property market. Too many planning laws stop production and giving people more choice.

Roberto_gas · 24-03-2020 01:45PM

SozBbz wrote: »

Yes the numbers around the hospitality industry are shocking but the majority of those layoffs will be temporary.

The pubs etc will come back as soon as its safe to do so.

People are enormously resilient and inventive when they have to be. Yes, things probably won't come back exactly as they were but they will adapt and rebuild.

I can already see some small businesses that were at first glance set to be wiped out reinvent themselves and creating new partnerships - for example Forest Avenue restaurant has stayed open as grocery shop. They've got some of the suppliers (seafood, fruit and veg) set up with stalls and they're selling versions of their menu (sauces, pastas etc) to heat up at home and sourdough starter with online tutorials on how to make it yourself. Bread41 on Pearse st is another similar idea. Blackrock Market are offering delivery to support its vendors with their takeaway options. I'm sure there are countless more besides. This is preserving jobs and maintaining livelihoods. I've every confidence in people like this making a success of these businesses again once Covid 19 is just an unpleasant memory.

Our economy is not going to just stay like this. This is not the new normal.

Absolutely agree...things will turn around in future...but between now and then there are lots of things which will change. And we do not know how long the lockdowns will last...hopefully maximum 3 months but the scars will take time to heal ! What this epidemic has done is exposed weak leveraged businesses....as if world economy was waiting for someone like COVID to put the blame on to for the next recession !

Knex* · 24-03-2020 01:47PM

landofthetree wrote: »

But people have alternatives to BMWs. Loads of cheaper brands.

There isnt much alternatives in the property market. Its not a free market. Too many planning laws stop production.

Poster is comparing property location to car make, implying that there are both cheaper cars makes, and cheaper property locations.

But if the vast majority of BMW's target audience were priced out of their car, there'd be a serious issue.

Its a matter of perspective it seems, and Graham's is that it doesn't' really matter that residents of Ireland can't afford to buy a home here, as somebody else (REITS etc) will potentially pay the premium to.

However, the rental gig is already under pressure, and sure enough the property prices will fall too.

voluntary · 24-03-2020 01:50PM

My advice would be: if you want to buy today - be reasonable. Pick as cheap place as possible which suits your needs. You could find a place in need of refurbishment as the labour costs and materials will go down in the coming months.
Also mind, 20% drop from 200k property may mean a 40k hit (which may only equal 2 years rent), but 20% from 600k means loosing 120k. Higher end properties tend to lose a larger % of the value than lower end properties in market depressions.

Additionally, borrow as little money as possible too. Taking a huge debt on your shoulders in these uncertain times may kick you back in the ass.

Assetbacked · 24-03-2020 01:52PM

Graham wrote: »

But that's your argument. Prices MUST drop because they are unaffordable to some people.

Ah okay, sorry I was a bit strong before.

My point isn't solely based on that, it is based on reports such as the KBC report on affordability, median salaries of people versus levels of borrowing, but also based on the lack of options for people considering the new builds aren't hitting the open market. No new apartments have been available to people to buy the past few years as they are sold in lots to institutionals. Second hand homes vary widely in value, as the first few pages of this thread highlight.

To use the BMW analagy, maybe the BMW is unaffordable but there are plenty of options in the car market for cheaper new cars but also for second hand BMWs. It is possible to buy a car with cash but the same cannot be said for a house, for the vast majority of people.

landofthetree · 24-03-2020 01:52PM

Knex. wrote: »

Poster is comparing property location to car make, implying that there are both cheaper cars makes, and cheaper property locations.

The obvious solution then is to simply go live in Albania and work remotely, I guess.

The Government should aggressively hike tax on vacant development sites to drive land speculators from the property market, an ESRI research professor has told the Irish Independent.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hike-levies-on-vacant-land-to-hit-hoarders-reduce-house-prices-esri-38536129.html

Its been government policy to keep prices high.

24-03-2020 01:55PM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Ah okay, sorry I was a bit strong before.

My point isn't solely based on that, it is based on reports such as the KBC report on affordability, median salaries of people versus levels of borrowing, but also based on the lack of options for people considering the new builds aren't hitting the open market. No new apartments have been available to people to buy the past few years as they are sold in lots to institutionals. Second hand homes vary widely in value, as the first few pages of this thread highlight.

To use the BMW analagy, maybe the BMW is unaffordable but there are plenty of options in the car market for cheaper new cars but also for second hand BMWs. It is possible to buy a car with cash but the same cannot be said for a house, for the vast majority of people.

Where are the median salary figures from? I thought the CSO only did average.

Knex* · 24-03-2020 01:55PM

landofthetree wrote: »

The Government should aggressively hike tax on vacant development sites to drive land speculators from the property market, an ESRI research professor has told the Irish Independent.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hike-levies-on-vacant-land-to-hit-hoarders-reduce-house-prices-esri-38536129.html

Its been government policy to keep prices high.

Couldn't agree more. Even things like the number of vacant apartments in Dublin, deliberately being kept off the market to keep prices high, absolutely needs to be addressed.

The Belly · 24-03-2020 01:57PM

landofthetree wrote: »

The Government should aggressively hike tax on vacant development sites to drive land speculators from the property market, an ESRI research professor has told the Irish Independent.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/hike-levies-on-vacant-land-to-hit-hoarders-reduce-house-prices-esri-38536129.html

Its been government policy to keep prices high.

The mess we were and are in are down to governemnt policy Its by design and about votes.

Property Market 2020

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