CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP

fritzelly · 24-03-2020 02:29AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Maybe you have somehow not yet heard/understood the term "flattening the curve", but there are some helpful pictures here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/
The higher the maximum point on the graphs is, the more pressure the health system is put under (and thus, the more people that die). That is the reason for social distancing and locking down.

Are you missing the point of my post?
The WHO are well versed in containing Ebola (every press conference - in Africa we are stopping the spread of Ebola...") but not in something like this - they are basing their advice on a different disease.
Why are all these countries locking down if not to stop the spread of the disease?
Contact tracing only works to a degree - you can never find all contacts so there will always be vectors that are potentially spreading the virus
Remember it was the WHO saying do not stop flights, do not stop trading with China along with many other ridiculous suggestions. Took weeks to declare a pandemic saying there is no widespread community transmission meanwhile it was spreading all over the world.

When this is all done and hopefully over there will be serious questions asked about the credibility of the WHO beyond treating localised outbreaks in Africa. They get millions in funding every year and royally f*cked up on this as their first real challenge on a global virus. If this virus was any more serious we would all be dead in the next year if we listened to them.

/rant over

makeandcreate · 24-03-2020 02:30AM

Strumms wrote: »

Come on, don’t be hating on people for wanting to look well for the coming of the apocalypse ! :eek:

Probably just can’t sit still, have to be doing something, going somewhere, they are a bit freaked out, want some normality like a haircut, yap to the barber and everything that goes with it...

Some people have no concept of having their movements and life options severely restricted, often large numbers of people just don’t know how to react in a crisis, just freaks them the fûck out... we are seeing this in the behavior at supermarkets and elsewhere.

I remember being a few days from starting chemo for a BMT - there was no room in the usual isolation ward and they put me in the open chemo wards, I was doing great healthwise at the time but was told to make a will etc, and I sloped off on the Luas the next day to buy lockets for my children. Started blubbing in the jewellers in The Square, Tallaght - so yeah, people do anything to try and get a bit of control for a little while, even if it's illogical to everyone else. I am being VERY good now though, this is scarier than that was.

igCorcaigh · 24-03-2020 02:32AM

Coyote wrote: »

people need to stop thinking today or tomorrow number
any change we make takes 14 days to affect it, we need the number to drop to 0% by the end of the month to have any affect

Once R0 goes below 1, the epidemic will fizzle out.

joeguevara · 24-03-2020 02:34AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Are you missing the point of my post?
The WHO are well versed in containing Ebola (every press conference - in Africa we are stopping the spread of Ebola...") but not in something like this - they are basing their advice on a different disease.
Why are all these countries locking down if not to stop the spread of the disease?
Contact tracing only works to a degree - you can never find all contacts so there will always be vectors that are potentially spreading the virus
Remember it was the WHO saying do not stop flights, do not stop trading with China along with many other ridiculous suggestions. Took weeks to declare a pandemic saying there is no widespread community transmission meanwhile it was spreading all over the world.

When this is all done and hopefully over there will be serious questions asked about the credibility of the WHO beyond treating localised outbreaks in Africa. They get millions in funding every year and royally f*cked up on this as their first real challenge on a global virus. If this virus was any more serious we would all be dead in the next year if we listened to them.

/rant over

I really don’t know what to think at this stage. I was thinking weeks ago, why are countries meeting with WHO now do come up with best practice. Protocols for different types of virus should have already been discussed and agreed.

But also, no matter what WHO say, different countries do what they want. Take U.K., completely went against what WHO advised at the start.

Coyote · 24-03-2020 02:36AM

when do we make a change
it takes 14 day for any change to take affect
this is the next 3 weeks, assuming the numbers of new cases drop we still run out of ICU in 14 days, we need new cases to be at 0 in 14 days

Minnie Snuggles · 24-03-2020 02:37AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. Maybe Trump is right, fck it, let the cookie crumble and sweep up the crumbs

People who die in road crashes are not as contagious.

Yurt2 · 24-03-2020 02:38AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You ok, hun?

LOCKDOooOoOOoOWN!

fritzelly · 24-03-2020 02:41AM

Coyote wrote: »

when do we make a change
it takes 14 day for any change to take affect
this is the next 3 weeks, assuming the numbers of new cases drop we still run out of ICU in 14 days, we need new cases to be at 0 in 14 days

15% require hospitalization and 5% need ICU - what figures are you basing that on?

24-03-2020 02:44AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Finding worthwhile posts in this thread is like sitting on the banks of a river of fast flowing sewrage trying to pick out a few chestnuts of knowledge before they sweep by in the stench of self pity.

The good posts are there but who has the time or desire to trawl through the acres of shiiiiiite to find them?

that is Boards in general Im afraid; life in general coming to think of it

makeandcreate · 24-03-2020 02:46AM

spookwoman wrote: »

"The army, during certain visits, found some older people completely abandoned, sometimes even dead in their beds," she said.

The defence ministry said that staff at some care homes had left after the coronavirus was detected.

At least call somewhere eg their equivalent of the hse to say there are people there

Unfortunately, they would mostly be untreated anyway - perhaps being left in familiar surroundings was less stressful. We are in unusual times.

Ficheall · 24-03-2020 02:47AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Are you missing the point of my post?

Evidently so - what is it?
Yes, the WHO et al. were too slow to react. Yes, contact tracing, social distancing and lockdown are helpful but insufficient on their own, but every little helps, as Tesco say.
What are you proposing?

Edit: I think we've been in agreement throughout the last ten threads, so it could be a misinterpretation of your intent - I guess when you said "Why are these countries locking down?", it wasn't an actual question - you were just poking at the WHO?

Coyote · 24-03-2020 02:48AM

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/69089f-an-analysis-of-the-712-cases-of-covid-19-in-ireland-as-at-friday-20-/
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

of the 712 cases notified, 55% are male and 44% are female, with 35 clusters involving 190 cases
the median age of confirmed cases is 44 years
211 cases (30%) have been hospitalised
of those hospitalised, 17 cases have been admitted to ICU

the 15% and 5% ICU vary from country to country, but are a fair number, Italy the numbers are higher but the testing is lower

joeguevara · 24-03-2020 02:53AM

Coyote wrote: »

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/69089f-an-analysis-of-the-712-cases-of-covid-19-in-ireland-as-at-friday-20-/
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

of the 712 cases notified, 55% are male and 44% are female, with 35 clusters involving 190 cases
the median age of confirmed cases is 44 years
211 cases (30%) have been hospitalised
of those hospitalised, 17 cases have been admitted to ICU

the 15% and 5% ICU vary from country to country, but are a fair number, Italy the numbers are higher but the testing is lower

Looks like we are at 25 in ICU. Amazing that the ages of positive cases are relatively low.

24-03-2020 02:53AM

Has anyone gotten the Covid19 Emergency €203 payment yet?

Yurt2 · 24-03-2020 02:54AM

joeguevara wrote: »

But also, no matter what WHO say, different countries do what they want. Take U.K., completely went against what WHO advised at the start.

I think an important thing to remember about the UK, which might account for the difference in it's response, is that the potential for social unrest and looting is much much higher than in places like Singapore or South Korea. One mistep by a police officer in the wrong part of London or Birmingham could easily result in a repeat of the riots a few years ago.

I think they were trying to keep the place as normal as they could for as long as they could. Every country will find the secondary economic challenge a prickly challenge to face down.

It's a theory.

Coyote · 24-03-2020 02:56AM

joeguevara wrote: »

Looks like we are at 25 in ICU. Amazing that the ages of positive cases are relatively low.

a lot of the cases in ireland would have been related to travel at the start
more young people (under 50) going to places like Italy to ski that will change with local transmission
both Italy and Spain are at 10% death rate, they would love to have only 5% ICU

joeguevara · 24-03-2020 02:57AM

Coyote wrote: »

a lot of the cases in ireland would have been related to travel at the start
more young people (under 50) going to places like Italy to ski that will change with local transmission
both Italy and Spain are at 10% death rate, they would love to have only 5% ICU

I am so grateful that my parents were very vigilant right from the start.

Sober Crappy Chemis · 24-03-2020 03:05AM

So where are we compared to Italy then?

We are two weeks behind with them having 12.6 times our population?

In two weeks we will have 5000 cases and 482 deaths?

Rob A. Bank · 24-03-2020 03:09AM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Nearly 1.25 million people die in road crashes each year, on average 3,287 deaths a day. Maybe Trump is right, fck it, let the cookie crumble and sweep up the crumbs

If ever you needed proof that Trump, his supporters and most of the US Republican party, are pure evil incarnate and without a moral compass, read above.

Social Darwinism is a discredited concept since the middle of the last century, and for very good reasons.

This is just another of his the long list of outrageous statements... to distract the gullible from the complete sh*tstorm of misery and death he is about to preside over.

Coyote · 24-03-2020 03:11AM

Sober Crappy Chemis wrote: »

So where are we compared to Italy then?

We are two weeks behind with them having 12.6 times our population?

population does not matter it's the R0 rate that matters
you can see from the numbers that have been released by HSE that the current growth level is 25%.
the pain point is when we can't treat people anymore and thats only two week away at current growth
as a side note
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21190033/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-age

20-44
the CDC covers a huge 20-44 age range in its data, but here’s what we know about that entire group: 14.3 percent hospitalized, 2 percent in the ICU, and 0.1 percent fatality rate.

45-54
For people 45 to 54, the CDC reports 21.2 percent have been hospitalized, 5.4 percent were put in the ICU, and 0.5 percent have died. For people 55 to 64, 20.5 percent have been hospitalized, 4.7 percent ended up in the ICU, and 1.4 percent died. For the oldest folks in this group, ages 65 to 74, hospitalizations (28.6 percent), ICU stays (8.1 percent) and deaths (2.7 percent) continue to trend upward.

70+
In Spain, out of 6,152 cases from this group, 3,388 people have been hospitalized, a 55 percent hospitalization rate; 199 went to the ICU, a 3.2 percent rate; and 705 people ages 70 and older have died, a 11.4 percent fatality rate.
Italy, China, and South Korea have reported fatality rates from 6.2 percent up to 20.2 percent for people in this age range.
I’ll use the 75-and-older numbers from the CDC: For ages 75 to 84, hospitalizations (30.5 percent), ICU stays (10.5 percent), and deaths (4.3 percent) are already high, and the key metrics go up even higher for people 85 and older; 31.3 percent hospitalized, 6.3 percent in the ICU, 10.4 percent fatality rate.

Sober Crappy Chemis · 24-03-2020 03:16AM

Coyote wrote: »

population does not matter it's the R0 rate that matters
you can see from the numbers that have been released by HSE that the current growth level is 25%.
the pain point is when we can't treat people anymore and thats only two week away at current growth
as a side note
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/23/21190033/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-by-age

20-44
the CDC covers a huge 20-44 age range in its data, but here’s what we know about that entire group: 14.3 percent hospitalized, 2 percent in the ICU, and 0.1 percent fatality rate.

45-54
For people 45 to 54, the CDC reports 21.2 percent have been hospitalized, 5.4 percent were put in the ICU, and 0.5 percent have died. For people 55 to 64, 20.5 percent have been hospitalized, 4.7 percent ended up in the ICU, and 1.4 percent died. For the oldest folks in this group, ages 65 to 74, hospitalizations (28.6 percent), ICU stays (8.1 percent) and deaths (2.7 percent) continue to trend upward.

70+
In Spain, out of 6,152 cases from this group, 3,388 people have been hospitalized, a 55 percent hospitalization rate; 199 went to the ICU, a 3.2 percent rate; and 705 people ages 70 and older have died, a 11.4 percent fatality rate.
Italy, China, and South Korea have reported fatality rates from 6.2 percent up to 20.2 percent for people in this age range.
I’ll use the 75-and-older numbers from the CDC: For ages 75 to 84, hospitalizations (30.5 percent), ICU stays (10.5 percent), and deaths (4.3 percent) are already high, and the key metrics go up even higher for people 85 and older; 31.3 percent hospitalized, 6.3 percent in the ICU, 10.4 percent fatality rate.

So , we are grand then.

Coyote · 24-03-2020 03:18AM

Sober Crappy Chemis wrote: »

So , we are grand then.

no if you look at the breakdown you will see in two weeks time we will have 12,000 cases and 641 in ICU.
the problem is what happens when all the ICU beds are full, who does not get an ICU bed and is left to die?

spookwoman · 24-03-2020 03:20AM

This is why paddy cosgrove was looking for some details to get this set up here. No names involved. Pretty impressive dashboard
https://co.vid19.sg/dashboard

ILoveYourVibes · 24-03-2020 03:21AM

I am so mad.

I have legit not left the house for 8 days not for shopping not for a walk not even to receive a package. I havent walked outside the door. College is doing distance learning. My job i would say is gone.

Yet just now i have been told by someone who keeps posting #STAYATHOME online everywhere that he is having visitors over and going out to visit others. I know of a dr whose husband is going to a private sports club still open.

People are posting about social distancing yet NOT doing it. For a long time it was bloody govt ministers.

Then someone who works in a bank told me they were considered key workers. WHY? Because they are tellers who give out cash to the elderly who never got used to using atms and cards. DO YOU BELIEVE THIS? THE ELDERLY ARE STILL GOING TO THE BANK THREE TIMES A WEEK APPARENTLY TO GET CASH. The VERY groups we are all doing this to protect.

I'm done i am looking after myself and my family. I am protecting US.

My brother as a civil servant has been transferred to the HSE dept but even HE is working from home this week.

People are being fake.

Sober Crappy Chemis · 24-03-2020 03:21AM

Seriously, 6 dead is terrible.

Will we ever actually reach 85,000 dead in Ireland as predicted by some back in previous iterations of this thread?

Genuine question?

Sober Crappy Chemis · 24-03-2020 03:21AM

Coyote wrote: »

no if you look at the breakdown you will see in two weeks time we will have 12,000 cases and 641 in ICU.
the problem is what happens when all the ICU beds are full, who does not get an ICU bed and is left to die?

your ma?

Quantum Erasure · 24-03-2020 03:22AM

spookwoman wrote: »

This is why paddy cosgrove was looking for some details to get this set up here. No names involved. Pretty impressive dashboard
https://co.vid19.sg/dashboard

too late, he's been cancelled

fritzelly · 24-03-2020 03:23AM

Ficheall wrote: »

Evidently so - what is it?
Yes, the WHO et al. were too slow to react. Yes, contact tracing, social distancing and lockdown are helpful but insufficient on their own, but every little helps, as Tesco say.
What are you proposing?

Edit: I think we've been in agreement throughout the last ten threads, so it could be a misinterpretation of your intent - I guess when you said "Why are these countries locking down?", it wasn't an actual question - you were just poking at the WHO?

(Crap - closed the reply tab by mistake and cannot remember everything I wrote)

Countries are ignoring WHO advice (bar general viral guidelines like wash your hands

) when they have from the very start being saying keep trade going with China, don't block them, don't cancel flights etc etc.

They are far too policised (and too well funded from a certain country) - 500 million held in a pandemic bond that is at least 3 weeks away from being released if ever

Dr Ryan still saying don't go into lockdown - every country looking at Italy and going feck that we are locking down now!
Who to believe - the WHO or the rest of the world?

Coyote · 24-03-2020 03:25AM

Sober Crappy Chemis wrote: »

your ma?

yes quite lightly she would be left to die, which is why I have tried to protect her.
also you when there is 35,000 cases even at 2% needing ICU there would not be any left for you unless your under 19 and don't need one.

rossie1977 · 24-03-2020 03:25AM

Sober Crappy Chemis wrote: »

Seriously, 6 dead is terrible.

Will we ever actually reach 85,000 dead in Ireland as predicted by some back in previous iterations of this thread?

Genuine question?

Better hope not. Look at the state Italy is in with 6,000 dead.

CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP