CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP

Boggles · 22-03-2020 08:15PM

Ninthlife wrote: »

Did I read right today that there is a backlog of 4000 to be tested?

From what I saw today the whole social distancing isnt really being observed at all

The fine weather isnt helping either.

I think this 'calm before the storm' is lulling people into a false sense of security

FVP3 wrote: »

The backlog of 4000 people doesn't mean that these people have more reason to believe they have CV, it is in fact the number of tests we hope to carry out soon, and even more thereafter.

It's 40,000 people

owlbethere · 22-03-2020 08:17PM

frillyleaf wrote: »

Cheltenham goes were asked to self isolate but someone that would go to such a crowded place would not isolate. If it’s not enforced it won’t happen.

Thats very true.

Ninthlife · 22-03-2020 08:17PM

Boggles wrote: »

It's 40,000 people

I thought i misread the 40,000 so posted 4,000

Thats alot of catching up

SleetAndSnow · 22-03-2020 08:18PM

Heard from my greek friend that they are going into lockdown from tomorrow, BBC reporting it too. just over 600 cases.

Nijmegen · 22-03-2020 08:19PM

The backlog is 40,000 but the positive rate on tests is rather low, so it’s admissions to hospital and ICU you want to look at for a proper representation of the acute spread.

I have to say a lot of people disgraced themselves out today with regards to social distancing. Clearly ploughed ahead with their plans irregardless if arriving somewhere to find it filled with others. A slow build to lockdown I reckon, with more public places shut. I see Germany has banned gatherings of more than 2 people.

Dontfadeaway · 22-03-2020 08:19PM

What’s the point getting tested if results take a week or more.

FVP3 · 22-03-2020 08:20PM

STB. wrote: »

Well if it doesn't make sense to you I can spell it out.

But that isn't the trend. There is a waiting list to be tested. THERE is no trend of falling numbers. The numbers are still going UP.

What makes an exponential is the increase in the rate of change of the rate of change.

Recently, the daily increase has slowed. This isn't what you expect in an exponential situation, like for instance in the US, where it hasnt.

These will be responsible for a lot of positive tests over the coming weeks. Many didn't self isolate went back to work and visited friends family etc

Maybe, maybe not. However catching more cases doesn't mean that the actual cases have increased, if there are more tests we will get more positives.

What we really need is, as I have said continuously, is randomised tests of 400 people every day. Sick or not.

is_that_so · 22-03-2020 08:20PM

Ninthlife wrote: »

I thought i misread the 40,000 so posted 4,000

Thats alot of catching up

They do plan to go to 15000 tests a day but as commented above who knows how long results will take at these types of rates. I believe we now have 6 labs working on test results.

joe40 · 22-03-2020 08:20PM

Ninthlife wrote: »

Did I read right today that there is a backlog of 4000 to be tested?

From what I saw today the whole social distancing isnt really being observed at all

The fine weather isnt helping either.

I think this 'calm before the storm' is lulling people into a false sense of security

Yeah, beaches very busy but at least it is outdoors I'm not sure how much of a risk it is.
Apart from that the social distancing message seems to adopted by the vast majority at this stage.

Muahahaha · 22-03-2020 08:21PM

Just back from a lap around the Wicklow mountains on the motorbike. Jaysis Ive never seen it so packed up there, the Wicklow gap is normally pretty quiet even on sunny days but today there was cars strewn all along the road for hundreds of metres. Gardai had closed down the car parks in Glendalough so Im guessing they all just headed up that way instead. People were having BBQs and picnics at the side of the road, Glenmacnass waterfall was absolutely mobbed with a traffic jam to get into the car park there. Sally Gap was the same and it didnt quieten down till I peeled off at the crossroads at the top and headed for home.

Hobgoblin11 · 22-03-2020 08:21PM

Italy has a percentage decrease it deaths today, have they reached a peak?

Westernyelp · 22-03-2020 08:21PM

jackboy wrote: »

Well my point is that AI will not develop a vaccine. Humans either will succeed or fail at that task. Developing successful vaccines that doesn’t damage humans is still a very difficult task, it should not be underestimated. Success is not guaranteed.

Agreed, but it is an increasingly important tool for this kind of research, and improving rapidly.

wakka12 · 22-03-2020 08:21PM

FVP3 wrote: »

What makes an exponential is the increase in the rate of change of the rate of change.

Recently, the daily increase has slowed. This isn't what you expect in an exponential situation, like for instance in the US, where it hasnt.

Maybe, maybe not. However catching more cases doesn't mean that the actual cases have increased, if there are more tests we will get more positives.

What we really need is, as I have said continuously, is randomised tests of 400 people every day. Sick or not.

Why would they test people who aren't sick? I think there will be enough problems to contend with in the coming weeks without adding unnecessary extra work

BorneTobyWilde · 22-03-2020 08:22PM

Once USA get to 500,000 cases it will be unstoppable there. In fact it could be that they are at over 100,000 cases already.

is_that_so · 22-03-2020 08:22PM

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Heard from my greek friend that they are going into lockdown from tomorrow, BBC reporting it too. just over 600 cases.

Yeah feckers were packing the beaches today!

Abba987 · 22-03-2020 08:22PM

Dontfadeaway wrote: »

What’s the point getting tested if results take a week or more.

Fxxk knows

Ninthlife · 22-03-2020 08:23PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They do plan to go to 15000 tests a day but as commented above who knows how long results will take at these types of rates. I believe we now have 6 labs working on test results.

Good to know the 15,000 figure per day but as you said turn around time for results will be one to watch

holyhead · 22-03-2020 08:23PM

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

Italy has a percentage decrease it deaths today, have they reached a peak?

Only subsequent days will tell sadly. The numbers are still huge though.

STB. · 22-03-2020 08:23PM

FVP3 wrote: »

?

Hardly meaningless even if delayed. We can see trends in the delayed results.

As I said though the testing has increased and the trend has decreased it is good news. Of course we need more than 2 days data.

2 days data is not a trend.

Testing has not increased in line with the demand.

Last time I checked, kits were low, with more testing kits "on the way" and the NVRL in UCD had reached capacity anyway, so much so that they had to call on Regional Hospitals to take over the rest.

Thelonious Monk · 22-03-2020 08:23PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What is Limerick?

Is short poem

FVP3 · 22-03-2020 08:23PM

Boggles wrote: »

It's 40,000 people

Irrelevant to my point. We have 40,000 people awaiting tests because we have relaxed the criteria for tests. I couldn't get tested just last week with a fairly heavy cold, or flu.

Padre_Pio · 22-03-2020 08:23PM

yerwanthere123 wrote: »

True numbers are much, much higher. Their policy so far has largely been turning people away unless they'd specifically been to an affected region, despite presenting with all the symptoms. I found this an interesting read.

Some US colleagues were sent home for 14 days isolation after one was suspected of getting Corona.
He hasn't got the test as his insurance won't cover it, and they don't even have tests available.

The stats show that people with cardiovascular problems or diabetes are very susceptible to the virus, so that puts most Americans over 50 in the firing line.

wakka12 · 22-03-2020 08:23PM

FVP3 wrote: »

What makes an exponential is the increase in the rate of change of the rate of change.

Recently, the daily increase has slowed. This isn't what you expect in an exponential situation, like for instance in the US, where it hasnt.

Maybe, maybe not. However catching more cases doesn't mean that the actual cases have increased, if there are more tests we will get more positives.

What we really need is, as I have said continuously, is randomised tests of 400 people every day. Sick or not.

Why would they test people who aren't sick? I think there will be enough problems to contend with in the coming weeks without adding unnecessary extra work

Mwengwe · 22-03-2020 08:24PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Why would they test people who aren't sick? I think there will be enough problems to contend with in the coming weeks without adding unnecessary extra work

Because people can be asymptomatic and spread the virus. Your doctor could be asymptomatic. They think this is why the virus has spread so uncontrollably in comparison to previous ones. It's very necessary work, it will be crucial to halting/mitigating the pandemic

pjohnson · 22-03-2020 08:24PM

Christ we "ramp up" testing only to instantly get a 40000 person backlog for results. Who the hell planned that bright idea.

mick987 · 22-03-2020 08:24PM

Dontfadeaway wrote: »

What’s the point getting tested if results take a week or more.

So they know what to put in the death certificate for cause of death

Jim_Hodge · 22-03-2020 08:24PM

STB. wrote: »

2 days data is not a trend.

Testing has not increased in line with the demand.

Last time I checked, kits were low, with more testing kits "on the way" and the NVRL in UCD had reached capacity anyway, so much so that they had to call on Regional Hospitals to take over the rest.

Kits may be low but the fact remains that the number of completed tests has increased.

bekker · 22-03-2020 08:25PM

FVP3 wrote: »

?

Hardly meaningless even if delayed. We can see trends in the delayed results.

As I said though the testing has increased and the trend has decreased it is good news. Of course we need more than 2 days data.

1000 tests carried out, 1000 tests processed yielding 100 confirmed cases = 10% confirmed of tests carried out and processed.

versus,

1000 tests carried out, 100 tests processed yielding 10 confirmed cases = 10% confirmed of tests carried out and processed but 90% of test results unknown at this stage.

cut an paste will be the death of me yet!

An Ciarraioch · 22-03-2020 08:25PM

FVP3 wrote: »

?

Hardly meaningless even if delayed. We can see trends in the delayed results.

As I said though the testing has increased and the trend has decreased it is good news. Of course we need more than 2 days data.

Indeed - as long as the % increase doesn't rise, hospitals should have enough capacity to cope.

gmisk · 22-03-2020 08:25PM

Ninthlife wrote: »

Did I read right today that there is a backlog of 4000 to be tested?

From what I saw today the whole social distancing isnt really being observed at all

The fine weather isnt helping either.

I think this 'calm before the storm' is lulling people into a false sense of security

I thought it was 10k?

CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid19 Part X - 1,564 cases ROI (9 deaths) 209 in NI (7 deaths) (25 March) Read OP