CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) Read OP

mosii · 22-03-2020 10:10AM

OK, stop watching that guy! There have been 13,000 deaths. Flu kills millions annually and affects billions.

Mortelaro · 22-03-2020 10:10AM

7 new deaths,last 24hrs in Wales
Welsh chief medical officer has just announced -BBC news

MipMap · 22-03-2020 10:10AM

Nermal wrote: »

But hang on - only people with symptoms are getting tested!

Is this true? I thought with contact tracing they tested anyone who had close contact with you. Thats why only about 4.5% of tests are positive.

Could be wrong

DOCARCH · 22-03-2020 10:10AM

pH wrote: »

There is ZERO chance that this disease has infected 'many people' in Ireland. We have had 785 confirmed cases. The real figure is likely to be 5x to 10x this number, based on studies done in other countries. However because Ireland is testing everyone who calls and reports symptoms, we're far more likely to be at the 5x end than the 10x end.

Anecdotal evidence would suggest this is not happening (yet). It could be another week before testing really gets going properly/ramps up (and we start seeing the results).

Then you have the people who have no symptoms and have the virus. They are not calling anybody/not being tested.

Gynoid · 22-03-2020 10:11AM

mosii wrote: »

OK, stop watching that guy! There have been 13,000 deaths. Flu kills millions annually and affects billions.

Ummmmmm...

pH · 22-03-2020 10:12AM

MipMap wrote: »

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/irish-news/politics/coronavirus-ireland-taoiseach-leo-varadkar-21662400

Oh don't post this and remind people here of the sort of things Varadkar was saying on March 9th. Boris was saying the same things but he was doing something to the herd and trying to kill the entire population of the UK.

walshb · 22-03-2020 10:14AM

We keep hearing of more tests and ramping up tests...

How many people have we to test to begin with..

I’d say many aren’t even going through the “hassle” of arranging testing..

Just seeing it out..

I don’t think we get near 15000... not near.

mosii · 22-03-2020 10:15AM

is_that_so wrote: »

OK, stop watching that guy! There have been 13,000 deaths. Flu kills millions annually and affects billions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2FkuQZTYO4

This is a lot worse the flu guys,we should go into full lockdown from Tuesday,still too many out and about,the earlier the better.

is_that_so · 22-03-2020 10:15AM

Gynoid wrote: »

No it doesn't. It kills 250,000 - 500,000 annually, globally. It does not infect billions either.
PS I don't know what is in that video, I have not looked.

It's that guy in the UK who has been 100% right according to some, think he may be a retired nurse or something.

Kermit.de.frog · 22-03-2020 10:15AM

mosii wrote: »

OK, stop watching that guy! There have been 13,000 deaths. Flu kills millions annually and affects billions.

Does it? Does it though?

Also how long has the flu been in existence?

Also how much more contagious is novel coronavirus?

So little time to explain to the willfully ignorant.

PokeHerKing · 22-03-2020 10:15AM

is_that_so wrote: »

OK, stop watching that guy! There have been 13,000 deaths. Flu kills millions annually and affects billions.

The flu does not kill millions annually.

is_that_so · 22-03-2020 10:17AM

mosii wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2FkuQZTYO4

This is a lot worse the flu guys,we should go into full lockdown from Tuesday,still too many out and about,the earlier the better.

And this is based on his expertise or you own? It's not going to happen BTW. Most of the people doing most of the things most of the time is the position on it.

trapp · 22-03-2020 10:19AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Yeah, it is likely that many people have already gotten it and recovered from even the mild symptoms and will never go near a testing kit. Even with the official recorded cases, many have recovered so it is scare mongering to just list total cases, total hospitalisation and total deaths. It's not all negative anymore given the worldwide focus on containing and educating about it, hopefully we'll start to see people calming down and getting back to a revised version of normality very soon, with the focus switching to all of us ensuring the vulnerable categories of people are protected.

Don't say anything too sensible now.

Assetbacked · 22-03-2020 10:19AM

pH wrote: »

There is ZERO chance that this disease has infected 'many people' in Ireland. We have had 785 confirmed cases. The real figure is likely to be 5x to 10x this number, based on studies done in other countries. However because Ireland is testing everyone who calls and reports symptoms, we're far more likely to be at the 5x end than the 10x end.

That means the real number is probably 'around' 4,000, which in the context of a population of 5,000,000 is 0.08%

Not everyone will be tested. If you have no symptoms, you won't call up, you will not be a worry for the authorities and therefore won't be tested. This is the vast majority (to quote Leo) of the population who will be in this category.

pH · 22-03-2020 10:20AM

DOCARCH wrote: »

Anecdotal evidence would suggest this is not happening (yet). It could be another week before testing really gets going properly/ramps up (and we start seeing the results).

Then you have the people who have no symptoms and have the virus. They are not calling anybody/not being tested.

Yes which is why we're probably close to the bottom half of that estimate.

The number of people who show absolutely no symptoms or so little symptoms so they don't even consider themselves sick is around 20% (although some estimates from Japan say it could be as high as 30%)

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180

So if we take the 20% asymptomatic figure, that basically means that for every 4 people who noticed symptoms (the 80%) there is 1 other person who didn't notice symptoms. So for out 785 reported cases (people who noticed symptoms and called) you could certainly argue that there's 200-300 more people out there with the virus.

mosii · 22-03-2020 10:20AM

Africa and India are heading for a disaster of Biblical proportions,in my humble opinion.The population in these countries,and weak medical infrastructure is a recipe for disaster.

Jin luk · 22-03-2020 10:20AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Even if there are, the vast majority of cases are mild so it's contact tracing and isolate at home for 14 days.

Why is their still an argument over it being mild if this was a noting virus the world wouldnt risk a recession in stopping its spread.

1000people die a day worldwide with flu,

700+ died in 1 day in 1 region within italy. With covid 19

MipMap · 22-03-2020 10:23AM

pH wrote: »

Oh don't post this and remind people here of the sort of things Varadkar was saying on March 9th. Boris was saying the same things but he was doing something to the herd and trying to kill the entire population of the UK.

Someone asked where it came from.
We nned to relax here and be a little less aggressive when someone says something we don't like to hear.

We won't save a single life by doing dodgy math with inadequate data

m17 · 22-03-2020 10:23AM

Cyprus

cj maxx · 22-03-2020 10:24AM

https://reddit.app.link/Ips7xjQL34

is_that_so · 22-03-2020 10:24AM

Jin luk wrote: »

Why is their still an argument over it being mild if this was a noting virus the world wouldnt risk a recession in stopping its spread.

1000people die a day worldwide with flu,

700+ died in 1 day in 1 region within italy.

80% (and more) of cases are mild, that is an accepted statistic. That Italy screwed up, sadly, is also an accepted situation. Regrettably too their demographics is such that they were always at risk of this. Based on what we are doing now we will not be Italy.

What Username Guidelines · 22-03-2020 10:25AM

walshb wrote: »

We keep hearing of more tests and ramping up tests...

How many people have we to test to begin with..

I’d say many aren’t even going through the “hassle” of arranging testing..

Just seeing it out..

I don’t think we get near 15000... not near.

The thing is, if we hit let’s say 10,000 by March 31st, it’ll sound good, but at a 1.25 jump per day we’ll be at 15,000 by April 2nd, two days later.

I just don’t get the 60% thing tbh. If it does go that big, why would it Just stop at 60? I think it’s just absolute guesswork. At that 1.25 multiplier, we’d have 60% of the population infected by the end of April.

pH · 22-03-2020 10:25AM

Assetbacked wrote: »

Not everyone will be tested. If you have no symptoms, you won't call up, you will not be a worry for the authorities and therefore won't be tested. This is the vast majority (to quote Leo) of the population who will be in this category.

No it's not the 'vast majority'

Of everyone who contracts covid-19

20% will have severe symptoms (needing some form of hospital care)
60% have a mild illness, fever/cough/aches
20% will he asymptomatic or have so little symptoms they barely notice they're sick.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180

SteelyDanJalapeno · 22-03-2020 10:28AM

We simply won't test enough people to get to 15000 this month, we would need to test about 250k people, not gonna happen folks

Widdensushi · 22-03-2020 10:28AM

pH wrote: »

No it's not the 'vast majority'

Of everyone who contracts covid-19

20% will have severe symptoms (needing some form of hospital care)
60% have a mild illness, fever/cough/aches
20% will he asymptomatic or have so little symptoms they barely notice they're sick.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180

but how did the other 3000 not get it in that closed environment, is it possible that some could have a mild version fought off and tested negative as they were over it?,is it possible that a % of people have immunity ?

Dial Hard · 22-03-2020 10:29AM

is_that_so wrote: »

80% (and more) of cases are mild, that is an accepted statistic.

Mild in clinical terms, according to our resident HSE consultant. A significant proportion of those "mild" cases will still be left with permanent lung damage.

DOCARCH · 22-03-2020 10:30AM

pH wrote: »

So for out 785 reported cases (people who noticed symptoms and called) you could certainly argue that there's 200-300 more people out there with the virus.

That's all fine if you are of the opinion/believe there are just 785 people in the ROI with the virus who have symptoms.

People who are looking to be tested are not being tested....just told to self isolate.

wadacrack · 22-03-2020 10:30AM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

The thing is, if we hit let’s say 10,000 by March 31st, it’ll sound good, but at a 1.25 jump per day we’ll be at 15,000 by April 2nd, two days later.

I just don’t get the 60% thing tbh. If it does go that big, why would it Just stop at 60? I think it’s just absolute guesswork. At that 1.25 multiplier, we’d have 60% of the population infected by the end of April.

60% at one time. People are protected by people who have recovered

is_that_so · 22-03-2020 10:30AM

SteelyDanJalapeno wrote: »

We simply won't test enough people to get to 15000 this month, we would need to test about 250k people, not gonna happen folks

That 15000 is an unmitigated total projection based on the model they are using not an actual number. As they get more data it will change, hopefully downwards.

tobefrank321 · 22-03-2020 10:31AM

RiseAbove4 wrote: »

I’ve just read that 30% of all Irish cases have been hospitalised and it’s filled me with dread

So the maths on it is;

- 60% of us will get it (At least. I think it’ll be closer to 90%)

- And almost one third of those cases will end up in hospital?

Our hospital system will never cope with this!

If it does get to a stage where many get it, it will be over a phased basis, likely a year. So you could get 100,000 new infections on average a month which would mean 30,000 hospitalisations a month, the majority treatable. After a month you'd hope most would be cured.

Not saying tens of thousands a month are manageable, we'd need field hospitals and likely hotels to be used. The HSE should be preparing such facilities now.

This is a best case scenario dependent on an effective lockdown and isolations.

CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) *Read OP*

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CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) Read OP