CoVid-19 Part IX - 785 cases ROI (3 deaths) 108 in NI (1 death) (20 March) *Read OP*

megabomberman wrote: »

Don't think it will have as big an impact in Africa as elsewhere, looking at the DRC only 2.5% of their population are over 65. Countries like Brazil and India are the ones I worry about most.

65 in the DRC is like a 95yr old here. Their lifespan is much shorter and life is much harder. Age is just a number. Its the condition of the body to take the battering thats the key. A fighting fit 70yr old will fare better than a 40yr old with poor health.

boege wrote: »

30,000 test kits arrived yesterday and more on order. The lab in UCD stated in RTE they were running 900 tests per day and we hear capacity.I guess 1,000 tests per day is their limit.

New labs coming on line but test capacity unknown. I suspect number would be low. Getting the lab up and running is hard enough but scaling the test is a reliable manner will be the challenge.

the agri labs are being drafted in to help. they would have large enough capacity to do testing considering all the tb tests that have to be done in the country

megabomberman wrote: »

Don't think it will have as big an impact in Africa as elsewhere, looking at the DRC only 2.5% of their population are over 65. Countries like Brazil and India are the ones I worry about most.

Only that age has not so relevant but rather state of your health is.
Generally older people do have health issues but quite a lot of them are keeping fit. A lot of young people do have underlying health issues which they do not have a clue about. Sihtty diet and lifestyle is what make fighting this virus harder.
People who are the most at risk are immunicompromised people please do not think you are safe simply by being younger.

Africa is most likely going to suffer a lot.

threeball wrote: »

I also can't understand the figures out of india. Les cases than here (hard to believe), 5 deaths. Another country with huge poverty and massively dense population.

America could be the outlier here. 1st world country with 3rd world cities existing inside their cities. Those people won't get a second thought. Look what they did to Flint in normal times.

I'd say the vast majority of people in India who get sick with flu-like symptoms aren't being tested for COVID-19 so therefore even if they have it, they aren't recorded as COVID-19 patients.

threeball wrote: »

I also can't understand the figures out of india. Les cases than here (hard to believe), 5 deaths. Another country with huge poverty and massively dense population.

America could be the outlier here. 1st world country with 3rd world cities existing inside their cities. Those people won't get a second thought. Look what they did to Flint in normal times.

Indeed. We complain a lot about this country ( well, some of us do). But I don't think I'd choose anywhere else to face this.

threeball wrote: »

Once this thing takes hold in Africa its going to be Carnage. Entire townships with not an ounce of medical backup will be decimated.

in 34 countries there already, most cases in northern coastal African countries and South Africa, but its starting to take off in sub saharan africa

Egypt, South Africa, Algeria, Morocco, Burkina Faso and Tunisia make the top 6

https://twitter.com/WHOAFRO/status/1240971046196477952

Hobgoblin11 wrote: »

Does anyone believe like me that European epicenters will be worse than the Chinese epicentre and the US epicentres will be worse than Europe for deaths , this I believe will be due to the more free the movement of Europe versus China and the US versus Europe

Beginning to look that way!

nthclare wrote: »

I was in Aldi in Ennistymon this evening and a young lady from a well known ethnic group was walking around coughing and no regard for anyone.
The nice lady at the till told me that's the 4th time she came in and did that today.

It looked like she was testing people's tolerance, then off out to the hi ace or whatever they call them ffs

Im not racist by the way, seriously

Lovely town Ennistymon. There are some special cases living there though.

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Maybe the guards should take a leaf out of Chinas book and weld them into the pub. At least they can drink away without the risk of infecting anyone else then haha

Be some craic if they did land up, barricade the doors and stick quarantine stickers on the window. See the fcukers scrambling to get out of there then.

walshb wrote: »

Many shops are not necessary...

So are all of the pubs. If you cant enjoy life without need of drinking alcohol for couple of days then good luck to you.

Was in Lidl in Doughiska, Galway, a few mins ago. Most people just doing their shopping and distancing but then in walks a gang of feral scumbags. Queuing up and they were standing on top of everyone. This country drives me nuts at times.

pH wrote: »

Ok then - do some maths.

• 5% of people who catch covid-19 will need critical care.
• At max our hospital system can deal with 50 new critical cases per day.
• So we cannot have more than 1,000 new cases per day without overloading the health service. (1,000 people catching the virus means 50 of then need icu)
• There are 4.9 million people in Ireland 70% of them would need to be infected for 'herd immunity' (3.43 million)
• 3,430,000 / 1,000 = 3,430 days (9 years 5 months) of lockdown

You would need to factor in the exponential increase in infection rate. Doesnt derail your point but would reduce the number of days. If one person has an R0 of 3 you could extrapolate figures. I would think that the R0 could be higher than what is currently being estimated at.

wakka12 wrote: »

Yes I do believe Europe already is worse and US will be worse. Not necessarily because of the freedom of movement thing but because the EU implemented serious measures much later than China and US much later than Europe

US reduced/stopped flights from affected areas etc before europe did. Most states cancelled schools weeks ago. Parts of the US are on lockdown with everything except essential businesses closed. Are there such drastic measures in place across europe? The UK at least is still pretty much business as usual. I think that will be the next to be hit hard.

Not that I think it will make things much less worse for the US, they need to shut down internal travel, but I think europe could be just as bad if not a bit worse.